UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-26
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 26 stated that it was day 762 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 57 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 59 air strikes, and 106 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 air defence system, 1 artillery system, and 1 electronic warfare station, 1 concentration of troops, and 1 UAVs control station
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 9x concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment
During the night of Mar. 26, the enemy attacked with 12 Shahed UAV’s launched from the Cape Chauda (TOT Ukrainian Qirim) and the Kursk region (Russia), as well as two air-controlled missiles S-300 in the direction of Donetsk.
The air attack was repelled by mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.
All 12 Shaheds were shot down.
Ukrainian Air Force reveals why Russians increased frequency of strikes on Ukraine
Russian invaders have reduced the intervals between attacks on Ukraine as they are trying to find weaknesses in the Ukrainian air defence system, according to Ilia Yevlash, spokesperson for the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
"The shelling is constant. The enemy has recently focused its attention and is trying to attack our infrastructure facilities quite heavily. This is due to various factors," he says.
"Among other things, the enemy is constantly changing tactics, trying to find weaknesses in our air defence system," Yevlash notes.
He adds that the Russians will continue to attack Ukraine in the future.
"Its main goal is to destabilise the situation inside the country, to force Ukraine to take non-standard actions. Of course, we continue to monitor, detect missiles and other enemy assets and destroy them," Yevlash says.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 1 assault in the vicinity of the settlement of Ivanivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 15 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, Vesele and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks near Klishchiivka and (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinity of Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) The enemy, supported by aviation, made 22 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy launched 4 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), southwest of Bilohir’ya, and northwest of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Over the past day the enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Missiles launched at Ukraine yesterday not from ships, Ukrainian Navy clarifies
Russian forces during the attack on Kyiv on March 25 launched missiles from the territory of Crimea from ground platforms. And they definitely were not launched from ships, according to Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
"I can only mention that there were no missile launches from ships," Pletenchuk told the news agency.
There are currently reports in the media that the occupiers could have attacked the capital with hypersonic Zircon missiles. This information has not been officially confirmed. The Navy spokesman, when queried by RBC-Ukraine "I can only mention that there were no missile launches from ships."
"They are currently using ground launchers for this, which are mobile and movable. Therefore, it is quite difficult to hit such objects. These are anti-ship complexes Bal and Bastion... I can only mention that they (the missiles) were launched from the territory of Crimea from ground platforms. And they definitely were not launched from ships," Pletenchuk concluded.
Oleh Ivashchenko appointed as head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed a decree on Mar. 26 appointing Oleh Ivashchenko as head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU). Ivashchenko was previously the deputy head of the DIU.
The previous head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Oleksandr Lytvynenko from the post was appointed to the post of Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.
SBU caught Russian saboteurs red-handed planting railway explosive
Ukraine’s SBU security service announced on 26 March that it had disrupted a Russian sabotage plot targeting a critical railway line used to transport military supplies to the frontlines. In a special operation in Poltava Oblast, the SBU detained two suspected Russian agents red-handed as they were planting an improvised explosive device near the railroad track and electric lines powering the rolling stock.
According to the SBU, the two detainees, residents of Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts, intended to remotely detonate the explosive in an attempt to blow up a section of the railway connecting central and eastern Ukraine. This strategic line operated by the state-owned Ukrzaliznytsia railway and rail transportation company is vital for the logistics of transporting weapons, ammunition, and fuel to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, which are fending off the ongoing Russian invasion.
According to the SBU’s investigation, the saboteurs were acting on direct orders from a career officer of the 5th service of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). This FSB handler instructed the agents to commit the railway sabotage timed to coincide with the latest wave of Russian air strikes targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure on 21 and 22 March, but the perpetrators were detained at the scene by the SBU.
The SBU says it has confiscated the mobile phones used by the detained agents to coordinate with their Russian handler. The Ukrainian prosecutors have already identified this FSB officer
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia claims BMP-3 “invulnerability” to mines despite battlefield realities
The recent assertion by Russian state defence conglomerate Rostec regarding the mine-resistant capabilities of the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle has been met with scepticism and astonishment from military experts and analysts.
Rostec’s claim, made by media specialists during the handover of another batch of BMP-3 vehicles to Russian troops, has ignited debate due to its stark contrast with the vehicle’s performance in real combat, particularly in Ukraine.
According to Rostec officials, the BMP-3 vehicles manufactured by Kurganmashzavod, a subsidiary of Rostec’s High Precision Systems holding, are purportedly capable of safely traversing minefields without sustaining damage. The claim hinges on the vehicle’s lightweight design, which Rostec asserts enables it to drive over mines unscathed.
“Thanks to its lightweight design, this equipment is capable of driving over mines without sustaining any damage,” the news release says.
Reality begs to differ:
Grumpy Here - The reality is Russians lie, they lie big and constantly. This war has demonstrated that most of the weapons and equipment that Russia produces are of flawed design and poorly made. As a result not only are their own troops losing faith in the equipment, but the Russian defence industry that had previously been very successful with international sales are finding that international interest in these inferior weapons systems is waning. No one wants their junk.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russian Ambassador refuses to attend Polish Foreign Ministry after missile breaches Polish airspace
Following a missile breaching Polish airspace during Russia’s major attack on Ukraine on Mar. 24, the Polish Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to Poland in order to protest the violation of Polish airspace.
Despite being summoned by the Polish Foreign Ministry, the Russian ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreev refused to attend a meeting on Mar. 25, where he was to be handed a formal note of protest over the violation of Polish airspace by the Russian missile, according to RMF24.
Russian propaganda outlet RIA Novosti quoted a russian diplomat as saying that Andreev “considered it pointless to talk on this topic without presenting a proof base, and refused the summons to the Polish Foreign Ministry,” he said.
As yet there is no word on if there will be diplomatic consequences resulting from the Ambassador’s refusal.
Polish Foreign Ministry: NATO considering shooting down Russian missiles near its borders
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said on 26 March that NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles when they are heading towards the territory of the North Atlantic Alliance. RMF 24 reported.
The Polish Operational Command reported on the morning of 24 March that during the Russian night attack on Ukraine, one cruise missile flew into Polish air space and stayed there for 39 seconds The missile entered Poland’s airspace in a village in the Lublin Voyevodstvo, but Polish military radar systems tracked it without taking action as it headed back toward Ukraine, according to the military.
Polish Defense Minister Vladislav Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Poland would have shot down a Russian missile if there were signs that it was heading towards a target on Polish territory.
Poland’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreev, for an explanation. However, Andreev failed to attend the Polish Foreign Ministry in Warsaw on 25 March.
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said that the violation of Polish airspace by a Russian missile was a test of the strength of the defence and vigilance of the Polish Armed Forces. According to him, “The Russian Federation did not want to provoke anything, as the Russians knew that if the missile penetrated deeper into Poland, it would be shot down.”
France may requisition or force arms factories prioritisation for faster Ukraine output
France’s defence minister issued a stark warning that he is prepared to use his legal powers to compel the country’s arms manufacturers to dramatically increase production of weapons and munitions desperately needed for Ukraine’s battlefield against Russia’s invasion. Reuters reports.
France is among Ukraine’s strong supporters in its war against Russia’s aggression. The total value of French military equipment delivered to Ukraine is €2.615 billion, with an additional contribution of €1.2 billion to the European Peace Facility (EPF). In total, this amounts to over €3.8 billion between 24 February 2022, and 31 December 2023.
On 26 March, French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said he was prepared to use his powers to requisition industrial capacities or impose priorities on weapon makers to speed up the production of arms and shells needed on the battlefield in Ukraine and elsewhere.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine's New MacGyvered Kamikaze Drones are a Menace, russians Complain
Ukraine has a new long range drone, and although it seems counterintuitive, an aerial vehicle made out of a water pipe, plywood and plastic bottles turns out to be the best solution possible. Defense Express writes.
Recently, russian forces in Ukraine have suffered from a previously unseen type of suicide drone constantly shelling their positions. The new drone is unique in its almost primitive simplicity, all materials used in assembly are improvised and, importantly, accessible and cheap to the extreme
In a photo published by a russian soldier on social media, we can see one of them: a fairly large drone assembled from plywood boards, which seems to have been sheathed with dense polyethylene, the fuel tank is made of 5-liter water bottles, the tail is a water pipe, and the avionics are placed inside a plywood box.
It might seem that there is nothing to brag about here because it definitely does not meet any standards, nay concepts of modern weapons. However, this is exactly what the ideal kamikaze drone should look like. Let's say it one more time: the whole point of such a drone is to make a single flight in its "lifetime," which should end with it simply crashing into the target. Thus, the most expensive thing there can be is a small-sized internal combustion engine and a flight control system.
In the conditions of the Ukrainian warzone especially, the cheaper the design is, which ensures this single yet bright flight, the better. If someone can make a flying vehicle out of the assortment of materials they can find at a DIY store, it would be just perfect. Moreover, if this design needs no high-precision machine tools and highly skilled workers to make the product — even better.
Many of the details remain unspecified, such as the size of the warhead or the flight range. Given the size of the fuel tank, we can assume that the aerial weapon is intended for strikes on longer ranged targets
What Is the Realistic Flight Duration of the Zircon Missile to Kyiv?
Following russia’s recent failed missile strike on Kyiv using the 3M22 Zircon missiles, which we reported here, there has been widespread speculation online regarding its flight time. Some sources claim that it can reach the capital in 3 minutes and Odesa in just 1 minute. However, these calculations are not grounded in reality. Defense Express reports.
Calculating flight time requires precise data on the missile’s parameters, speed, altitude, trajectory and manoeuvring capabilities.
The Zircon missile boasts a speed of 9,000 km/h, likely sourced from Defense Express, which initially reported the missile’s hypersonic capabilities. This speed is derived from converting its stated speed of 7.5 Mach, which is a temporary short-term speed during its dive towards the target. The sustained cruising speed is around 5.5 Mach. Without delving too deeply into the physics, Mach numbers (representing the speed of sound) vary with altitude. For instance, near the ground, Mach 1 is about 1,225 km/h, while at 10 km altitude, it’s approximately 1,078 km/h. These figures are not linear due to environmental factors; for instance, at 30 km altitude, Mach 1 is about 1,086 km/h, and at 40 km, it’s around 1,142 km/h.
For example, using basic math, an attack on Kyiv would take about 7 minutes if launched from Object-100 system near Sevastopol or around 6 minutes if launched from Cape Tarkhankut using a modernized Bastion system. However, this oversimplified view overlooks the intricacies of missile trajectories.
Missiles follow a specific path: they ascend to a significant height, accelerate, begin descent and then rapidly approach the ground. Even if we imagine a simplistic scenario where an object travels at a constant speed along a parabolic trajectory, it becomes evident that the actual flight distance along the curved path will be longer than a straight-line distance.
Given these complexities, it’s challenging to determine the Zircon missile’s exact flight time to specific Ukrainian cities. More crucial is the detection and response time to a missile launch, highlighting the urgency of developing effective threat detection and warning systems.
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