UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-25
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 25 stated that it was day 761 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 60 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 33 missile strikes, 70 air strikes, and 91 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 air defense systems, 3 artillery systems, and 1 electronic warfare station
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 8 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment
Overnight defenders of the sky knocked down 8 of 9 Shahed UAVs, which the russia launched from Cape Chauda (TOT Qirim).
Around 10:30, on Mar. 25 the enemy struck Kyiv with two ballistic missiles from temporarily occupied Crimea. Targets destroyed, type established, - commander of the Air Force-Lieutenant General Nikolai Oleshchuk.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 1 assault in the vicinity of the settlement of Synkivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 8 attacks, assisted by air support, near Yampolivka, and Vesele(Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka and (Donetsk oblast).
Russian capture of Chasiv Yar would be more operationally significant than the Russian seizure of Avdiivka
The Institute for the Study of War in their Mar. 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated Russian forces are reportedly approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast but are unlikely to threaten the settlement with encirclement or seizure in the coming months.
ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced within 1.5 kilometers of Chasiv Yar based on available visual evidence, and Russian milbloggers claimed on March 24 that Russian forces recently advanced further towards and up to the outskirts of the settlement.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on March 23 that Russian forces seized Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut and immediately east of Chasiv Yar), although ISW has not observed confirmation of Russian forces seizing Ivanivske or advancing up to the outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces began a localized offensive operation in the Bakhmut direction in November 2023 that aims to recapture territory that Ukraine liberated during the summer 2023 counteroffensive and to seize Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces have only achieved marginal tactical gains northwest and west of Bakhmut in the past four months, however. Select Russian sources have described Russian offensive activity in the Bakhmut area in recent months as conditions setting for a potential intensified offensive operation to encircle and seize Chasiv Yar.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast) The enemy, supported by aviation, made 25 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks, supported by aviaton near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) south of Novodarivka and Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Military Intelligence: Russian large landing ship Yamal sustains critical damage
As we reported yesterday, on Mar. 23 Ukraine’s military reportedly hit large landing ships Yamal and Azov, a communications center and several infrastructure facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, the city in Russian-occupied Crimea.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) after studying all available data reported on Mar. 25 that the damage to the large Russian landing ship Yamal was critical. In particular, they observed a large hole in the upper deck that had caused it to roll to starboard.
According to Ukraine’s intel, the Russian occupying force continuously pumped water out of the damaged ship, which took part in the annexation of Crimea and was undergoing repairs from 2017 to 2023.
The Russian-appointed governor of annexed Sevastopol said that the attack on Sevastopol was “the most massive in recent times.” He said Russian Air Forces shot down more than ten missiles.
UK says Russia forced to constrain its fleet to port, but even there its ships are sinking
Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom, has commented on the latest Ukrainian strikes on two Russian landing ships, the Yamal and the Azov, in Russian-occupied Sevastopol, Qirim.
Shapps said that Russian leader Vladimir Putin's illegal occupation of Ukraine "is exacting a massive cost on Russia's Black Sea Fleet which is now functionally inactive".
"Russia has sailed the Black Sea since 1783 but is now forced to constrain its fleet to port. And even there Putin's ships are sinking!",
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine’s ground forces commander warns about lack of trust in military enlistment offices due to one-sided media coverage
Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, Oleksandr Pavliuk, complained of one-sided media coverage of mobilization, which criticizes military enlistment offices and tolerates dodgers, disrupting mobilization.
“The highest art of war is to destroy the plans of the enemy and defeat him without using troops in battle. And judging by the last months, the Russians are very professional at using ancient Chinese war strategies. And unfortunately, some of our fellow citizens have lost the understanding that their actions and public statements have turned into a powerful weapon in the hands of the enemy,” Pavliuk warned.
He wrote that the media report every single story about “unfortunate drowning people in the Tysa River,” meaning incidents like when mobilization dodgers died trying to illegally cross the mountain river on the Ukrainian-Romanian border and similar stories. At the same time, “there are almost no materials related to the work of the territorial enlistment offices, the specifics of military service, the need to perform military duty.”
Pavliuk admitted there are ways to make the work of territorial enlistment offices and mobilization process less stressful and more predictable for people and that his team is currently working hard to improve the system.
At the same time, Pavliuk called on the media to cover the mobilization topic from all sides, including servicemen on the frontline and those serving in the territorial enlistment offices.
In the last week russia launched its heaviest bombardment of Ukraine yet
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his evening address on Mar. 24 summarized this past weeks Russian attacks.
Zelenskyy said that during the week, Russia used about 190 missiles, 140 Shahed drones, and 700 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine.
Zelensky emphasized that in more than two years of full-scale war, there was not a single week when Russia refrained from its terror attacks.
“And we are doing our best to make sure that the occupation contingent feels our quite fair response to this terror in the same way – every week, every day. I am grateful to all of our heroes who destroy enemy logistics in the occupied territories. Those who clear Crimea and the Black Sea of the occupiers’ presence. This is a difficult task, but our warriors are completing it step by step. Everyone sees it,” the president said.
As was reported, Russia launched several waves of massive air attacks against Ukraine on 22 and 24 March 2024, combining various types of missiles and drones. The primary goal of the attack was Ukraine’s power grid and other energy infrastructure. The most shocking was the strike against the massive Ukraine’s Dnipro Hydropower plant. The attack destroyed the plant’s equipment but didn’t cause critical damage to the dam.
In total, Russia achieved only a minor success. After a short-term emergency power shutdown, the attack resulted in more severe outages in two out of 24 Ukrainian regions, namely Odesa and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Massive Russian attack in Ukraine’s west targets a gas storage facility
Maksym Kozytskyi, governor of Lviv Oblast stated that on Mar. 24 the first wave of cruise missiles hit the “object of critical infrastructure.” A few hours later, during the next wave of attack, Russia fired its most dangerous Kinzhal missiles against the very same object.
In his evening statement, he said that the firefighters completely extinguished the fire ten hours later.
Later, Ukraine’s CEO of state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz, Oleksiy Chernyshov, wrote in his evening statement that Russia had targeted an underground gas storage facility in Lviv Oblast in its morning attack. As a result, the ground infrastructure was damaged. However, this situation will not critically impact the company’s operations since the gas is stored underground.
“The damaged surface infrastructure will need repairs. However, we have sufficient backup capacities to mitigate any immediate impacts. The supply of natural gas to Ukrainian consumers remains unaffected by the attack,” Chernyshow wrote.
Russian ballistic attack on Kyiv injures 7 people, hit sports facility in city’s center district
On the morning of Mar. 25 Russian military hit Ukraine’s capital with two ballistic missiles at about 10:30 am. An air alert was announced in Kyiv just a minute before, at 10:29 a.m.
Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said that Ukraine’s defense forces destroyed two ballistic missiles that Russia launched from occupied Crimea. Experts reportedly are determining the type of missiles.
Russian missiles hit four districts of the capital: Holosiivskyi, Pecherskyi, Solomianskyi, and Darnytskyi. Multi-story buildings and one private building were damaged.
The debris from downed missiles damaged a three-story educational institution and windows in neighboring residential buildings in the Pechersk district.
RUSSIAN WORLD
RUSSIAN WORLD
UK Intel - Russian unlikely to be able to find resources to equip two additional announced armies
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Mar. 25 Intelligence Update stated that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on 20 March 2024 that Russia will create two new armies in 2024. They will reportedly be formed of 14 divisions and 16 brigades. The exact type, location, and composition of these units was not stated, though a mix including mechanised, armoured, artillery, and logistics is most likely. It is a realistic possibility that these new formations are linked to previous new unit announcements and planned brigade to division uplifts.
Given Russia's successful recruitment efforts, it is likely that the units can be sufficiently staffed. However, given Russia's limited training, widespread use of legacy equipment, and infrastructure issues, it is likely these units will suffer similar resourcing problems.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Congress to bring Ukraine aid vote to the floor “after Easter”
US House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said Sunday that he expects Speaker Mike Johnson to bring a Ukraine aid bill to the floor after Easter, despite the risk that it could drive support for a vote to oust him from leadership. Politico reports.
US House Republicans are still delaying the Ukraine aid package, which has been stalled in Congress since last fall, this has benefited Russia on the battlefield. Now that the government funding dispute is settled, the US House of Representatives is poised to address a long-delayed national security package, including military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and other US allies.
“I think the situation Ukraine is dire…. if we lose in Ukraine like Afghanistan and then lose to Putin, let him you know, take over Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia, and abandon our allies like we did in Afghanistan — Does that make the United States weaker or stronger? I think weaker,” McCaul said.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister on Russia's attempts to connect Moscow terrorist attack to Ukraine: Putin is a pathological liar
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has urged the public not to allow Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and his associates to spread false information about Ukraine's alleged involvement in the terrorist attack in Moscow suburbs.
Kuleba said that Putin lied about apartment bombings in 1999, the Kursk submarine disaster in 2000, the Beslan school siege in 2004, the murders of Politkovskaya, Magnitsky, Nemtsov, and his many other critics, as well as Russian soldiers occupying Crimea, the downing of MH17, and the plans to invade Ukraine.
The Foreign Minister mentioned that these are only a few of the many lies on a very long list.
"Putin is a pathological liar. Including now that he is desperately attempting to link Ukraine or other Western nations to the mass shooting near Moscow, despite the fact that there is no evidence to support such claims. Their only goal is to motivate more Russians to die in their senseless and criminal war against Ukraine, as well as to instill even more hatred for other nations, not just Ukrainians, but the entire West,"
— Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister
MILITARY & TECH
Russian Zircon missiles shot down over Kyiv
On 25 March, Russia targeted Kyiv with two of its newest ZM22 Zircon missiles, Defence Express stated, quoting sources within the Defense Dept.
According to the publication, this is the missile's second publicly known use, following an unsuccessful attack on Kyiv on 7 February. The damaged missile most likely fell on the road in the Desnianskyi district.
But today the enemy launched the Zircons, which were shot down directly over Kyiv. This, as the Defense Express learned from its own sources, is the result of a primary analysis of the wreckage of two missiles that were shot down but fell within the capital.
Following the Feb. 7 strike there were only very fragmented fragments, the identification of which took five days for official confirmation of the use of this missile by the Russian Federation. After today’s attack, much more informative fragments of "Zircon" have become available.
They will allow for a deeper analysis, give an accurate answer to the type of engine, guidance system, use of materials, etc. In general, this is a fairly significant amount of information that will allow us to assess the real capabilities of the "Zircon" and the level of technology that is currently achievable for the Russian Federation to create its most secretive missile.
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