UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-24
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 24 stated that it was day 760 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 75 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 14 missile strikes, 106 air strikes, and 99 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 concentration of troops, 4 command posts, 2 air defense systems, 1 artillery system, 1 electronic warfare station, and 1 radar station of the russian invaders.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 10 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, and 1 warehouse.
On the night of March 24, 2024, Russian occupiers attacked with 29 X-101 / X-555 cruise missiles launched by 14 aircraft of strategic TU-95m bombers from Engels AFB (Russia) and 28 Shahed UAVs launched Russia and Cape Chauda (TOT Qirim).
Many units were involved in the countering of the air attack including SAM Missile Units, Air Force Fighter Aviation, mobile fire groups and Electronic Warfare means of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 43 air targets were destroyed: 18 cruise missiles X-101 / X-555 and 25 "Shahed-136/131" were shot down in the area of Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Kyiv, Volyn and Lviv regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 8 attacks, assisted by air support, near Terny, Yampolivka, Spirne, Vesele and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka and (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Tonen’ke, Yasnobrodivka, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobjeda, Kostyantynivka, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast) The enemy, supported by aviation, made 34 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 attacks supported by aviation on defensive positions near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast)
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the vicinity of Krynky (Kherson oblast) on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian Conducts Large Scale Missile Attack on Temporarily Occupied Qirim
The AFU StratСom reported that on the night of March 24, 2024, the Defense Forces of Ukraine launched a missile strike against russian occupiers in Qirim. As a result, Russian Azov and Yamal of Ropucha class large landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet, communications centre as well as other objects in temporarily occupied Sevastopol were damaged.
So far, only some videos of eyewitnesses of the night strike are publicly available, showing several powerful explosions after the missiles` hits. When satellite images are made publicly available, it will be possible to more accurately assess the scale of losses and destruction suffered by russian occupiers.
The Russian-appointed governor of annexed Sevastopol said that the attack on Sevastopol was “the most massive in recent times.” He said Russian Air Forces shot down more than ten missiles.
Intelligence reports the Russians only have three other large landing ships. They have been using these ships to transfer essential military supplies to Qirim since Ukraine severely damaged the rail line on the Kerch Bridge in Oct. 2022. If it is confirmed that the Azov and Yamal have been destroyed this will badly hamper Russia’s ability to resupply its forces in Southern Ukraine.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence and local resistance attack group of Russian soldiers with equipment in occupied Melitopol
A group of Russian soldiers and their military equipment was struck in the temporarily occupied town of Melitopol on Friday, Mar. 22. Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) reports.
A special operation by HUR and the local resistance movement inflicted effective fire damage on a group of Russian invaders and their military equipment.
Early reports indicated that about 20 Russian invaders, two Kamaz tented trucks and a UAZ Patriot were at the epicentre of the explosions." Information about exact Russian losses is still being assessed.
Russia constructs new railway line to Mariupol
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Mar. 24 Intelligence Update stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the construction of a railway line from Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia through the Russian temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Crimea. According to Putin, the new line will ultimately reach Sevastopol in southern Crimea and provide redundancy for the Kerch bridge. Although Putin claimed the first completed section restores access to Berdyansk, the pre-existing rail connection used to complete this journey passes through territory vulnerable to interdiction by Ukrainian long-range precision strike systems.
The new railway line is nearly 60km in length and took eight months to build. It is almost certainly one of the largest infrastructure projects Russia has carried out in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and re-establishes the rail connection denied by the fighting outside of Donetsk. It is likely one of the immediate objectives of the new line will be to support Russian activity in Mariupol.
This port city, destroyed by Russia in 2022, houses the Azovstal metallurgical plant and other heavy industry facilities, which, while severely damaged, Russia may attempt to repair and operate in the future, the analysts noted.
The railway in the occupied territory, is a "significant target" for Ukrainian forces, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence stated.
THE HOME FRONT
Kharkiv slowly recovering from Russian infrastructure attacks
In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, approximately 35% of residential buildings have been reconnected to the electricity supply, and about half have access to heating.
The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, announced these figures on Saturday evening. The situation follows more than 15 Russian strikes on Kharkiv’s energy infrastructure on March 22, leaving the city “almost completely without power,” according to Oleg Synyehubov, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration.
As a result, around 275,000 customers remain without electricity. Terekhov also noted the absence of street lighting and electric transport in the city, and he could not predict when the consequences of the enemy attacks would be fully addressed.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has highlighted the dire circumstances in Kharkiv, stating that in Khrkiv, the energy situation is most difficult and that efforts to restore electricity to household consumers are ongoing at the maximum possible pace.
Russian forces hit Lviv Oblast with Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
Russian troops fired Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles on Lviv Oblast from a MiG-31K jet on 24 March. An air-raid warning was issued at 09:31 Maksym Kozytskyi, Head of Lviv Oblast Military Administration reported.
Early reports indicated that the Russians twice hit the same critical infrastructure facility that the Russians had targeted overnight. "Firefighters who were putting out the fire received a timely warning before the attack. They rushed to a safe place just in time."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian oil exports finally facing real sanctions squeeze
The Russian oil-export machine funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine is finally getting some grit in its gears, Bloomberg reports.
For the first time since its invasion of Ukraine over two years ago, Russia’s oil export machine is being meaningfully disrupted by western sanctions. Several recent developments signal increasing friction for Moscow’s efforts to keep selling its crucial energy exports despite layers of restrictions imposed by the US, Europe and allies.
The most symbolic blow came as Indian refiners, Russia’s second biggest oil customer after China, decided to stop accepting crude cargoes on tankers owned by state-run Sovcomflot. The shipping giant had carried about one-fifth of Russia’s oil sales to India last year. Now its fleet of over 100 vessels is effectively shut out from that major market as refiners there refuse to take on the sanctions risk.
Dozens of other Russian tankers recently targeted by US sanctions have failed to load any new cargoes since being blacklisted. At least seven Sovcomflot ships appear to have gone entirely dark, disappearing from tracking systems in the Black Sea. The company itself admitted this week that western penalties have severely disrupted operations.
Meanwhile, Russian diesel cargoes are piling up at sea unable to find buyers. Over 6 million barrels were floating idle as of mid-March, the highest volume since at least 2017, according to data analytics firm Kpler. The apparent diesel glut comes despite Ukraine’s efforts to crimp supplies through drone attacks on Russian refineries.
“We’re definitely seeing stepped up US sanctions pressure on both Russian crude and exports,” said Greg Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group.
While Russia can still lean on a “shadow fleet” of re-flagged tankers to bypass restrictions, the shipping costs have skyrocketed. Delivering Russian crude to China now incurs around $14.50 per barrel in freight fees, over half of which is directly attributable to sanctions, according to estimates from Argus Media.
The growing supply-chain barriers mark a shift for the Kremlin. For most of the last two years, Russia managed to reroute huge volumes of oil to cooperative nations like India, allowing it to sustain a major revenue stream financing the invasion against Ukraine despite western restrictions. But that picture is changing, gradually tightening the economic vise on Vladimir Putin as the war grinds on.
“Washington still has powerful tools to hurt Russian oil exports, but has used them cautiously, fearing a spike in gas prices in an election year,” said Janis Kluge, a sanctions expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. While the impact remains limited for now, “it will drive up shipping costs and price discounts for Russian oil.”
Zelenskyy accuses Putin of attempting to shift blame for Crocus city hall attack
In an evening statement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russian leader Vladimir Putin and others of attempting to shift the blame for the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow onto others. Zelensky criticized Putin for his silence in the aftermath of the incident and for his predictable attempt to associate the attack with Ukraine.
“What happened yesterday in Moscow is clear that Putin and other scum are just trying to pin it on someone else. They always use the same methods. This has already happened before. There were bombed buildings, shootings, and explosions. And they always blame others,” Zelenskyy said.
Zelenskyy highlighted the pattern of Russian aggression, from the invasion of Ukraine to the brutal treatment of its people, and how the Kremlin consistently tries to deflect responsibility.
“They came to Ukraine, burning our cities – and trying to blame Ukraine. They torture and rape our people – and they blame them,” Zelenskyy stressed. “They drove hundreds of thousands of their terrorists here, to Ukrainian soil, fighting against us, and they don’t care what’s happening inside their own country. All this happened yesterday, and this absolute scum Putin, instead of dealing with his Russian citizens, addressing them, was silent for a day – thinking about how to pin this on Ukraine. It’s all entirely predictable.”
“Those hundreds of thousands of Russians who are now killing on Ukrainian soil would have been enough to stop any terrorists. And if the Russians are ready to silently die in the “crocuses” and not ask any questions of their special services, then Putin will try to turn more such situations to his personal power’s advantage,” Zelenskyy emphasized.
The attack at Crocus City Hall resulted in 133 deaths and 140 injuries. It is the deadliest in Russia since the Beslan school siege in 2004, which claimed 334 lives. Putin suggested that the suspects had been given a “window” to cross the border from Ukraine.
ISW - Islamic State very likely responsible for Crocus City Hall attack
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Mar. 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that ISW assesses that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack.
IS Amaq’s News Agency (AMA) took responsibility for the attack on the night of March 22, claiming that IS fighters attacked a “large gathering of Christians” on the outskirts of Moscow, “killing and wounding hundreds and causing great destruction...before they [the attackers] withdrew to their bases safely.” AMA later posted a blurred-out image of the four fighters who it claimed conducted its “fiercest attack in years” standing in front of an IS flag.
The announcement is consistent in terms of style, branding, and language with previous Amaq claims for other attacks. IS media organs make deceptive or false claims only ”infrequently” and carefully and try to maintain “high credibility” in their communique in order to define clear ideological objectives and maintain fundraising streams.
IS propaganda enables the group to fundraise and disseminate its guidance to lower-level commanders and supporters--IS risks discrediting itself within the competitive Salafi-jihadi community by falsely taking credit for very high-profile attacks. The conduct of the attack itself is also consistent with previous IS attacks, including the 2015 Paris terror attacks.
The Islamic State’s Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) may have conducted the Crocus City Hall attack. This branch has conducted at least four high-profile attacks outside of central Asia in the last 18 months.
US Central Command Commanding General Michael Kurilla notably stated in March 2023 that IS-K would be able to conduct “external operations against US or Western interests abroad in under six months,” meaning that Western intelligence had already assessed that IS and IS-K would be able to field the capabilities for such external attacks by September 2023
US intelligence most recently confirmed that IS-K was responsible for a bombing attack in Kerman, Iran as recently as January 2024, further highlighting IS external attack capabilities.
Russian allegations that the Crocus City Hall attack was a false flag operation are inconsistent with the evidence ISW has observed from the attack itself correlated with other reports of previous IS external attacks that ISW and CTP have covered since the emergence of the Islamic State, as well as the IS claim pattern following the attack.It is also highly unlikely that IS would have conducted the attack on the orders of Ukrainian special services, which several Russian sources have alleged. Amaq News Agency is IS’s central media arm. IS would not falsely claim an attack that may have been conducted by one Christian state against another (or by the Kremlin against Russia’s own people in some sort of false-flag operation), because the implications of IS conducting an attack at the behest of a predominantly Christian country would damage IS credentials within the Salafi-Jihadi community.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Macron – It is wrong to believe that Russia will stop in Donbas and Crimea
French President Emmanuel Macron has stressed that anyone who thinks that Russia will stop in the Ukrainian Donbas and Crimea in its aggressive ambitions is mistaken. Reuters reports.
Answering a question about the Kremlin's claims that Russia considers itself to be at war because of the West's assistance to Ukraine, the French president said it would be a mistake to think that Russia was going to stop its aggression in Donbas and Crimea.
"By using this term, one is also even opening up uncertainty about Russia's military objectives," Macron noted.
Despite the controversy surrounding his remarks about the possible deployment of Western troops to Ukraine, the French president refused to back down, insisting that his statements were well-considered and stressing that France would not follow the "logic of escalation" in its relations with Moscow.
Subsequently, commenting on his idea, Macron stressed that if such a scenario were to be implemented, French forces would not go on the offensive against Russia.
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
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