UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-08
For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Russia increases onslaught near Avdiivka and on Marinka front
Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, Spokesman of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group stated that Russian occupation forces have significantly increased the number of military clashes on the Tavriia front, and have been using UAVs and aircraft very actively.
"For the second day in a row, the invaders actively use kamikaze drones and aviation. They also significantly increased the number of military clashes. In total, the enemy carried out 13 airstrikes and conducted 61 combat clashes in the operating zone of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group over the past day. That is quite a lot. It also carried out 743 artillery attacks. Accordingly, the enemy's losses increased to 513 people over the past day. 45 units of military equipment were also destroyed. The enemy began to use it more often – in particular, six tanks, 12 armored personnel carriers, and one air defense system and five artillery systems were completely destroyed."
— Oleksandr Shtupun, Spokesman of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report
THE HOME FRONT
Citizens believe Ukraine can be reconstructed in 10 years, but worry about corruption
A sociological study by Transparency International Ukraine revealed that the population's views on Ukraine's reconstruction have become more pragmatic than six months ago.
Three-quarters of Ukrainians believe that the country's reconstruction will take about 10 years, but they consider corruption the most significant risk.
"By the end of 2023, the focus of Ukrainians is increasingly directed towards internal problems. In particular, people clearly single out corruption as the biggest challenge for Ukraine,"
— Anastasiia Mazurok, Deputy Executive Director for Transparency International
She believes that the study showed that Ukrainians are becoming increasingly demanding not only for results but also for clearly communicated plans that could alleviate their anxieties. They require full participation and honest dialogue from the authorities.
Russia shelled Ukrainian thermoelectric power plant near the front for several hours
DTEK, the largest commercial energy operator in Ukraine reported that a Ukrainian thermoelectric power plant located near the front was damaged as a result of systematic and enduring Russian shelling on Dec. 7. This is the seventh Russian attack on a thermoelectric power plant near the front in the past 45 days.
"The power plant’s equipment was severely damaged. Repairs started as soon as the shelling was over. We are continuing to do everything we can to ensure Ukraine’s energy system continues to operate in a reliable manner,"
— DTEK spokesperson
Head of Ukraine's defense state-owned enterprise tried to cash in on purchase of equipment for Su-27 aircraft
Detectives of the Economic Security Bureau (ESB) served the former head of a state-owned enterprise and three co-conspirators with a notice of suspicion of the embezzlement of state funds.
The ESB said these individuals tried to purchase a power amplifier module, a component of an onboard radar station used in a Su-27 fighter jet.
The investigation found out that the former head of the state-owned enterprise entered a criminal conspiracy with several individual entrepreneurs and signed a contract to supply a power amplifier module for military equipment for UAH 3.9 million (roughly US$106,500) in August 2023.
Russia launches first Kh-101 cruise missile attack in two months, killing at least one
On the morning of 8 December, Russian troops launched the first massive air-launched missile attack against Ukraine in more than three months. The attack targeted the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv and Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said on the national telethon, that Russians launched 19 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, while air defenders managed to destroy 14 of those, according to preliminary data.
Ihnat noted that before the missile attack, the Russian forces conducted “reconnaissance by combat” in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast late on 7 December, launching Shahed-136 one-way attack drones. Then, in the morning, nine Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers split into several groups and launched the missiles.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
British Intel: Russian mid-level officers gain more combat experience in war against Ukraine
The UK Ministry of Defense Intelligence Report for Dec. 7 stated that A new intake of Russian officers who started studies at the Russian General Staff Academy on 1 December will likely “exert major influence over the future direction of Russia’s military”
Recently, the MoD said that “over 60% of the intake has combat experience,” likely gained during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which began in February 2022.
Students at the academy typically rank between Major and General-Major (equivalent to a one-star General in the NATO system) and are earmarked as having the potential for senior command.
Over the coming years, this generation is likely to exert major influence over the future direction of Russia’s military and whether it implements lessons learned from the war in Ukraine
Russian recruitment can barely keep up with losses
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec. 7 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces may be suffering losses along the entire front in Ukraine at a rate close to the rate at which Russia is currently generating new forces.
Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated on December 7 that Russian forces lost almost 11,000 personnel (presumably killed or rendered hors de combat by injury) in the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions in November 2023. The operational tempo in the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions is currently lower than in the Avdiivka direction. These reported losses suggest that the Russian casualty rate in the Avdiivka area may be even higher given the higher operational tempo there. Ukrainian officials previously reported that Russian forces lost 5,000 personnel killed and wounded near Avdiivka and Marinka (west of Donetsk City) between Oct. 10 and 26, when Russian forces launched two waves of heavily mechanized assaults to capture Avdiivka.
If the Ukrainian-provided figures are generally accurate they suggest that Russian operations in Ukraine are highly attritional overall and that high Russian losses are not just the result of the costliest Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka.
If the Ukrainian-provided figures are generally accurate they suggest that Russian operations in Ukraine are highly attritional overall and that high Russian losses are not just the result of the costliest Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka.
Russian and Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian crypto-mobilization efforts produce roughly 20,000 to 40,000 personnel a month, a rate that could be lower than Russia’s current casualty rate in Ukraine.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
White House open to new asylum limits for Ukraine aid, source says
Reuters reported on Dec. 7 that the Biden administration is considering getting behind new restrictions on who can seek asylum and an expanded deportation process to secure new aid for Ukraine and Israel in a supplemental funding bill, a source familiar with discussions said.
The White House and U.S. Congress are racing to strike a deal that would deliver military aid to the two allied nations while discouraging illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border with only a week until lawmakers depart for a Christmas break.
Republicans have refused to approve more Ukraine funding without additional measures to reduce the record number of migrants attempting to cross the U.S. border illegally, leading to a complex negotiation pairing the largely unrelated issues.
White House spokesperson Angelo Fernandez Hernandez said Biden has made it clear "the border is broken" and that Congress should take action to fix it. "The president has said he is open to compromise," he said in a statement.
Canada imposes sanctions on Russian diamonds
The Canadian government with reference to Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly has announced restrictions on imports of Russian diamonds and related jewellery in coordination with its G7 partners.
"We call on President Putin to immediately put an end to this unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine, and we will continue to stand by Ukrainians for as long as it takes,"
— Mélanie Joly, Canadian Foreign Minister
The statement said that Ottawa will continue to work with the G7 countries and other international partners to implement comprehensive controls and verification measures to ban Russian diamonds.
EU Countries Continue to Import $1bn of Russian LNG Every Month
A new analysis on the proliferation of Russian fossil fuel highlights the continued and unabated import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by EU countries almost two years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In contrast to the United States, the EU has thus far not placed any sanctions on the import of LNG. As a result the EU remains a destination for 50 percent of Russia’s LNG exports sending in excess of $1bn each month to the country.
EU ports receive in excess of 200 shipments from Russia’s Yamal LNG facility per year. The volume of imported LNG is now so significant that it has surpassed other forms of Russian fossil fuels.
“LNG constituted the primary fossil fuel type purchased by the EU from Russia in January- November 2023,” the analysis emphasizes.
Likely Polish PM Tusk vows to improve Poland-Ukraine relations, resolve border blockade
Donald Tusk, leader of Poland’s Civic Platform party and of the largest coalition in the country’s newly elected parliament, is vying to become Poland’s Prime Minister and address recent tensions between Poland and Ukraine. Tusk hopes to secure the role on December 12th, allowing him to participate in the upcoming EU summit in Brussels.
Donald Tusk announced that he had held meetings with candidates for ministerial positions in the new government, which he said would address the problems that have recently arisen between Warsaw and Kyiv, according to Voice of America.
Donald Tusk told reporters on 8 December that he hopes to vote on a new cabinet as early as 12 December and swear in the government on the next day so that he can attend the European Union summit in Brussels on 14 December.
MILITARY & TECH
Director of Aerial Reconnaissance Support Centre on new threat from Russian drones
Mariia Berlinska, a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war who runs Victory Drones, a volunteer project of the Dignitas charitable foundation, and is director of the Aerial Reconnaissance Support Centre, in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda stated that Russia relies on automatic optical navigation of its drones, and Ukraine has no systematic counteraction to this now.
"We lost so much time so incompetently that now the Russians are way ahead of us. The more they automate their systems, the more they develop 'drone swarms' and automatic optical navigation (when the drone itself recognises the target and makes the decision to hit it), when there are thousands of such drones flying, we will be forced to retreat dozens of kilometers in a matter of weeks."
— Mariia Berlinska, Director of Aerial Reconnaissance Support Centre
To maintain Ukraine's parity on the battlefield, Berlinska is calling on President Zelenskyy to establish an Engineering Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief as soon as possible and ask leading Ukrainian drone manufacturers to get involved.
Ukraine to partner with US firms to produce 155mm shells domestically
Ukraine has reached agreements with two leading US defense companies to jointly produce 155mm caliber artillery ammunition within the country, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin announced on Dec. 7.
He noted that setting up 155mm shell production will take “at least two, maximum three years” given the technologies required. Kamyshin stressed the need to launch efforts rapidly even though Ukraine has never produced this type of ammunition before.
The announcement comes as a forum takes place in Washington DC on 6-7 December, involving representatives of Ukrainian and American industries, along with government officials from both countries. The forum explores possibilities for joint weapon production.
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