UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-10
For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Russian assaults continue on a wide front despite severe weather and heavy casualties
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec. 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.
ISW emphasizes that The establishment of local defensive positions in areas the AFU is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.
Situation in country's east is challenging as Russians attack along entire contact line
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, has described the situation in the country’s east as challenging, adding that the Russians are attacking along the entire contact line.
"The operational situation in the east is challenging. The enemy never stopped its offensive along the entire contact line. I thoroughly analyzed the situation and considered options for further actions together with the commanders holding the defense on the Eastern front."
— Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces
Syrskyi said the decisions had been made to ensure defence stability and preserve the soldiers' lives.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Massive fire breaks out in Russian-occupied Makiivka after explosion
A large-scale fire broke out in Russian-occupied Makiivka, Donetsk region, after a powerful explosion. Militarnyi reports. Local Telegram channels are publishing photos and videos of the event.
According to preliminary reports, an oil depot used by Russian invaders in the war against Ukraine is on fire. Powerful flames and a column of black smoke from the fire can be seen for many kilometers. It is reported that an oil depot or a Russian military fuel and lubricants depot is on fire.
On social media, locals write that a powerful explosion occurred before the fire, the origin of which is currently unknown. In the comments under the video with footage of a massive fire in some local online communities, users write that the Artemis oil depot is probably on fire.
THE HOME FRONT
UK Intel – Main Russian infrastructure bombing campaign underway
According to the UK Ministry of Defense daily intelligence briefing for Dec. 10 Russia has probably moved on to a larger-scale campaign against Ukraine's energy sector. However so far Ukrainian air defense coped with the enemy attack.
British intelligence recalled that on December 8, for the first time since September 2023, the Russians launched a wave of powerful strikes on Kyiv and central Ukraine using heavy bombers.
According to the British Ministry of Defense, these aircraft, probably Tu-95s, launched at least 16 air-launched cruise missiles from their typical operational area over the Caspian Sea. These were X-101 missiles (called AS-23a KODIAK in NATO countries).
Most of these missiles were successfully intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. Although the Russian attack resulted in a casualty in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the damage was minimal. None of the missiles targeting Kyiv, reached their intended targets, all were shot down on approach.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
NEWS WORLDWIDE
President Zelenskyy in Argentina for inauguration of Javier Milei
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Argentina for the inauguration of Javier Milei today with other world leaders. Zelenskyy has already met with a number of Latin American leaders, many of whom are not vocally supportive of Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion.
Finland launches investigation against Yan Petrovsky, suspected of terrorist crimes in Ukraine
The Finnish police have launched a preliminary investigation against one of the leaders of the Neo-Nazi group Rusich, Yan Petrovsky. He is suspected of terrorist crimes in Ukraine.
The Finnish newspaper Yle reports that Finnish law allows for investigating cases where non-Finnish citizens have committed alleged crimes outside the country. The police are currently reviewing the materials sent by Ukraine.
Yan Petrovsky took part in the Russian war against Ukraine. For this reason, in 2016, Norwegian law enforcement officers deported him to Russia. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, the militant has been under sanctions.
In August 2023, Petrovsky was detained in Finland, where he went under a new name based on his wife's –Voislav Torden. Ukraine filed for the militant's extradition. On December 8, a Finnish court released the leader of the Rusich group and refused to extradite him to Ukraine.
EU to control all European arms supplies to Ukraine
According to the Euractiv portal, the European Commission is developing the European Defense Industry Strategy (EDIS) in order to manage military supplies at the level of the entire Union.
The European Commission’s proposal for an EU defense industry strategy is likely to include setting up and securing bloc-wide supply chains of defense products with mapping, monitoring, prioritization of orders and facilitated intra-EU exports, according to a document seen by Euractiv.
“Any Member State’s security of supply strategy should increasingly integrate the EU dimension and better leverage one of the major strengths of the Union – the Single Market. An integrated and competitive European market for defense products will allow the European defense technological and industrial base to benefit from economies of scale, increasing the productivity of its industrial organizations,”
— EU Defense Industry Strategy
Republicans to meet allies of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán on ending Ukraine aid
Allies of Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán will hold a closed-door meeting with Republicans in Washington to push for an end to US military support for Ukraine, the Guardian reported.
Members of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and staff from the Hungarian embassy in Washington will on Monday begin a two-day event hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank. It is expected to feature guests including Magor Ernyei, the international director of the Centre for Fundamental Rights, the institute that organized CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) Hungary
According to a Republican source, some of the attendees, including Republican members of Congress, have been invited to join closed-door talks the next day. The meeting will take place against a backdrop of tense debate in Washington over Ukraine’s future. Last week the White House warned that, without congressional action, money to buy more weapons and equipment for Kyiv will run out by the end of the year. On Wednesday Senate Republicans blocked an emergency spending bill to fund the war in Ukraine.
A diplomatic source close to the Hungarian embassy said: “Orbán is confident that the Ukraine aid will not pass in Congress. That is why he is trying to block assistance from the EU as well.”
Serbia and Bulgaria complete construction of a gas pipeline to reduce dependence on Russia
Serbia and Bulgaria have completed a pipeline project that aims to reduce reliance on Russian gas by providing diversification of supply Bloomberg reports.
The pipeline spans 170 kilometers (106 miles) from the Serbian city of Nis to the outskirts of Sofia, Bulgaria’s capital, with an annual capacity of 1.8 billion cubic meters. That could cover as much as 60% of Serbia’s consumption.
The new link will enable Serbia to access alternative gas supplies from Greece or Azerbaijan, while also providing Bulgaria with access to gas from Western Europe or the Adriatic Sea.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attended the opening ceremony in Nis on Sunday. Work on the project started in February.
MILITARY & TECH
Sweden is considering handing over Gripen fighters to Ukraine
Armyinform reported that Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat said on Dec. 9 that in addition to F-16s it is likely that Sweden is likely to provide Ukraine with at least a limited quantity of Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighters in the long term.
He explained that Swedenis considering developing a newer version of the Gripen fighters, which will be switched to by its air force. Therefore, Ukraine will have the prospect of getting these planes.
During an earlier visit to Sweden, the Air Force Commander left specialists there when the meeting actually took place, so that they could explore the possibility of providing these aircraft to Ukraine and conduct certain familiarization flights on them.
He noted that this was not training for pilots, but only for the purpose of evaluating aircraft. Military training, he said, will begin only after the decision to transfer Gripen aircraft is announced.
Rustem Umierov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, discussed this issue with Micael Bydén, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Sweden, during a meeting. Bydén in his turn stated that supplying Ukraine with Gripen aircraft is being discussed both at the political and military-operational levels.
The Swedish Air Force has 94 Gripen C and D (the D is a two seat version) aircraft in service. In 2022 they began replacing them with the latest E variant which presumably would make the older aircraft available for resale. The Gripen has unique features that would make it desirable for use in Ukraine.
Ukraine prepares for the arrival of F-16s
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec. 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future. Umerov met with US Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General Robert Storch on Dec. 9 and stated that Ukraine has already begun to work with the Office of the Inspector General on a system to control and prevent violations and crimes involving American security assistance to Ukraine. Umerov also announced on December 9 that Ukraine will soon receive F-16 fighter jets and that Ukraine is already preparing infrastructure for the jets’ arrival.
North Korean ammunition present problems for Russian artillerymen
According to the report of Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, as of September 13, it had been six weeks since Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) had been supplying Russia with ammunition of 122mm and 152mm caliber for gun artillery, as well as 122mm rockets for multiple rocket launchers.
However recent reports from various Russian sources indicate they took some time to come to grips with problems affecting the accuracy of the ammunition. It seems North Korean ammunition is different from its Russian counterpart and Russian artillery units were not provided with ranging tables.
When such tables were eventually provided it turned out that only 120mm mortar rounds required range correction different from Russian manufactured ammunition leading to speculation that accuracy problems may lie somewhere else.
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