UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
2023-12-09
For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
WSJ: Ukraine switches to defense
The Wall Street Journal in a new analysis revealed that Ukraine is unlikely to launch another major counteroffensive against Russia until 2025. They analyzed the critical problems and challenges that Ukraine has to deal with at this stage of the Russo-Ukrainian war. While economic and military support from the West is in doubt, domestic political rifts are widening as the nation’s morale plummets.
According to the article a costly, monthslong campaign aimed at driving back invading Russian forces has culminated with little shift in the front lines. Economic and military support from the U.S. and Europe are suddenly in doubt. And domestic political fissures are widening as the nation’s morale sags.
Kyiv’s forces are now digging in for what could be an extended period of just trying to stop any more Russian advances. Western diplomats and military strategists say a depleted Ukraine needs time to rebuild, and that it may not be able to mount another significant counteroffensive until 2025.
President Volodymyr Zelensky last week ordered the construction of an extensive network of battlefield fortifications to help troops hold the line. On Armed Forces Day on Dec. 6, Zelensky acknowledged the difficulty of the fight to regain occupied territories but urged perseverance. “Is there really an alternative? No,” he said in a video address.
Ukraine’s ability to regain much more of its territory, the article continues, is now in doubt, while Putin’s reorientation of his economy to a war footing has strengthened his hand on the battlefield and, more recently, diplomatically.
The U.S. funding fight is deepening just as European countries are struggling to secure fresh aid for Kyiv. An expected European Union support package for Ukraine’s national budget, valued at roughly $54 billion, likely faces delay or cuts when EU leaders meet next week. The EU is unlikely to agree on any military assistance package before year-end.
If Ukraine and its allies can work through their current adversities and continue delivering supplies to troops, an emerging best-case scenario among Western strategists is that next year becomes a year of rebuilding for Kyiv’s military. The hope would be that a limited number of Ukrainian soldiers can hold Russian forces at bay, allowing NATO countries time to train fresh Ukrainian troops, expand armament production and restock Ukraine’s arsenals.
Another hope expressed at the recent NATO meeting was that Russia’s attempts to break Ukrainian defenses fail, eroding its resources—both manpower and ammunition—and potentially offering Ukraine better prospects to retake the battlefield initiative in the spring of 2025, if it gets through next year.
For now, Ukrainian troops are settling in for what could be a long winter after the first big snows recently. On front-line positions in the Kreminna Forest, east of Lyman, members of the Azov Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard said that morale is high, but they talked of lost comrades. Few seemed under any illusion that the counteroffensive was successful.
Air defense constraints impair tactical air operations for Russia and Ukraine
The UK Defense Ministry, in its Dec. 8 intelligence update highlights the Russian loss of the Su-24M fighter bomber to a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile over the north-western Black Sea, noting that air defenses continue to severely limit the effectiveness of tactical air operations for both sides.
On 5 December 2023, a Russian Naval Aviation Su-24M FENCER D fighter bomber was highly likely shot down by a Ukrainian surface-to-air Missile (SAM) over the north-western Black Sea in the vicinity of Ukraine’s Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.
Since summer 2023, Russia has continued to conduct high-risk, crewed strike missions against the island. This is likely mainly for messaging reasons because the island has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance and Russia wants to demonstrate it can project force across the Black Sea.
The two-man crew was likely lost: the location and operational conditions would make a successful Russian search and rescue mission extremely challenging. Both sides still suffer regular combat aircraft losses. Overall, air defences continue to severely limit the effectiveness of tactical air operations.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Russian offensives continue near Avdiivka, advancing to sewage treatment plant
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec.8 report stated that Russian forces reportedly advanced toward the sewage treatment plant south of Krasnohorivka, a strategic location northwest of Avdiivka. This advancement is substantiated by geolocated footage from the same day.
Weather conditions, described as difficult by a Russian source, are reportedly slowing the tempo of operations near Avdiivka for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, stated that over 40,000 Russian troops are engaged in the Avdiivka direction. He also noted the redeployment of reserves from Storm-Z units and inadequately trained and provisioned mobilized personnel to compensate for losses.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia continues to artificially alter the demographic composition of occupied Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Helsinki Union on Human Rights (UHHRU) – a union composed of 26 human rights-focused nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) – reported on Dec. 6 that Russian authorities have resettled up to 800,000 Russian citizens in occupied Qirim (Crimea) and forced around 100,000 Ukrainian citizens to leave Qirim since 2014.
The UHHRU reported that Russian authorities relied on policies such as preferential mortgage lending, relocation of Russian officials and their families, expulsion of Ukrainian citizens to mainland Ukraine, and ”encouragement” of Ukrainian citizens to move to Russia to free up residences in Qirim and encourage Russian citizens to resettle. Russian occupation authorities in other areas are implementing similar repopulation efforts.
The Union reported that Russian authorities are currently struggling to encourage Russians to resettle in occupied Crimea due to the high intensity of hostilities near Qirim, however.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine passes anti-corruption laws to advance EU integration
On 8 December, the parliament of Ukraine (the Verkhovna Rada) announced it had passed bills required for Ukraine’s integration into the European Union. 298 out of the total of 401 deputies voted for the law.
The newly adopted laws increase the staff of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), expand the powers of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP), and regulate the rights of national minorities in Ukraine.
The Verkhovna Rada also adopted a law that separates the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) into a separate prosecutorial body, which is supposed to boost the effectiveness of the fight against corruption among top-ranking officials in Ukraine.
On Friday, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed into law the bills on the NABU, the NACP, the SAPO, and national minorities, which were approved by parliament the same day, to implement the European Commission’s recommendations.
Ukraine still needs to adopt the law on lobbyism to comply with all four requirements of the European Commission. It also needs to be clarified whether all three of today’s adopted laws meet the recommendations of the European Commission in full.
Russian authorities could be obtaining video from surveillance cameras in Ukraine for years
An investigation by Skhemy (Schemes), a project of investigative journalism and analytics of the Ukrainian edition of Radio Liberty has discovered that for years, Russia's secret services could have been receiving video from surveillance cameras across Ukraine that run on Russian TRASSIR software and sending data to a server in Moscow.
In the midst of the war and Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territories in 2014 and 2022, thousands of video surveillance cameras running on the Russian TRASSIR software developed by the Russian Digital Security Systems Lab (DSSL) were installed and operating in Ukraine.
They have been purchased by both Ukrainian state-owned enterprises, including for use at critical infrastructure facilities such as the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and civilian businesses, including the Velyka Kyshenia (lit. Big Pocket) retail chain and the Nova Poshta (Nova Post) logistics group. Ukrainians also purchased them in bulk for security purposes to protect their homes.
Activists with expertise in video surveillance technology told Schemes that TRASSIR-branded cameras and the same-name software installed in civilian businesses and the public sector, including critical infrastructure facilities, could send information from them to Russian servers.
Schemes launched an experiment with experts from two specialized organizations, the Computer Forensics Laboratory and the Digital Security Laboratory. The camera used in the experiment was made in China, but its software is entirely of Russian origin.
The Schemes' experiment revealed that the video from these cameras, before it reaches the consumer's phone or computer, is sent to Moscow-based servers belonging to companies with ties to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). At the same time, the video surveillance system can recognize faces and car number plates and detect the movement of people and vehicles.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Nothing to report
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Bulgaria to send 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine, ignoring president’s veto
Bulgaria’s parliament has overridden President Roumen Radev’s veto on the agreement between Bulgaria’s Interior Ministry and Ukraine’s Defence Ministry on Bulgaria supplying Soviet-era armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, ratified by Parliament last month, the Sofia Globe reported.
According to the Sofia Globe, 161 Bulgarian MPs voted to override the presidential veto, while 55 others voted against it. Bulgaria’s parliament may overturn the President’s veto through a simple majority vote. Since taking office in January 2017, President Radev has used veto for 34 times, the Sofia Globe reported.
President Radev has repeatedly opposed Bulgaria’s military aid for Ukraine, claiming that sending Soviet-era equipment to Ukraine would diminish Bulgaria’s own defense capability and “would risk involving Bulgaria in the war.”
US Naval Base Norfolk received oil products with direct delivery from Russia
Andriy Klymenko, representative of the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies reported, along with the publication BlackSeaNews that the tanker AVENCA (IMO 9410002) of the German company CST delivered 50 thousand tons of Russian oil products to the US Navy Norfolk base with a direct voyage from Novorossiysk.
The vessel AVENCA is going under the Liberian flag and is operated by the German transport company Chemikalien Seetransport GmbH (CST). The tanker reportedly left Novorossiysk on November 13 at 1:38 p.m. and arrived in Norfolk on December 7 at 02:40 a.m. Data from the Marinetraffic monitoring service confirms Klymenko’s statements.
Norfolk is the largest naval base in the world, equipped with 10 berths with a total length of about 20 kilometers.
Ammunition depots, oil storage facilities, and infrastructure for cargo operations are located on the territory of the base.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Introduces a Counter-FPV Jamming Station
Ukrainian servicemen will receive new portable AD Counter FPV jamming stations.
These stations are manufactured by the Ukrainian defense company, Kvertus Technology. Volunteers who purchased the stations for the military said that one AD Counter FPV costs UAH 90,000.
Finally, this quest has reached its final stage, and the counter-FPV jamming stations (2 units for UAH 180,000) have been delivered to the soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The portable counter-FPV jamming station is designed to interfere with unmanned aerial vehicles.
The station is claimed to effectively jam the 850–940 MHz frequency bands commonly used by FPV drones. The small portable station weighs 5 kg, has a 360° airborne radiation pattern, and has a UAV jamming range of up to 150 meters.
The time required for efficient operation of the device after switching it on doesn’t exceed 0.5 seconds.
Umierov: Ukraine will soon receive F-16’s
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umierov reported that Ukraine will receive fourth-generation F-16 fighters in the near future.
He said that Ukraine is preparing to receive the F-16, working on infrastructure and technical equipment. Training of pilots and technicians is continuing.
"In the short term, we will receive F-16s. In the medium term, we also placed an order for the Defense Forces of the Future, but this is 2027-2030. The work is underway, we will receive them soon. We are discussing not only F-16s, the list is huge,"
— Rustem Umierov, Ukrainian Minister of Defense
He clarified that there are no limits on technology transfer and work with weapons.
Germany supplies Ukraine with ultramodern reconnaissance system
On 8 December 2023, the German government announced a new military aid package to Ukraine.
Among the items to be supplied were:
1,750 155-mm artillery shells;
One LUNA NG reconnaissance system;
Ten VECTOR reconnaissance drones;
Six border patrol vehicles;
Eight Zetros trucks;
100,000 first aid kits and medical supplies;
70 MGW automatic grenade launchers, etc.
This was the first time Germany supplied Ukraine with a modern LUNA NG unmanned aerial reconnaissance system. The LUNA NG system comprises a ground control station, the launch catapult, optional net equipment for catching the drones when they land, and equipment for rapid repair. The entire system is mounted on a MAN HX truck. The LUNA NG drones have a modular design and can be equipped with electro-optical and infrared surveillance equipment.
In addition, the design of LUNA NG unmanned aerial vehicles allows the installation of radar reconnaissance and electronic warfare equipment. Due to the high-stability design, LUNA NG reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles can fly for over 12 hours.
When fitted with special optional equipment, the LUNA NG drones have a datalink range of up to 300 kilometers, according to Militarnyi, a Ukrainian military OSINT group. The flight speed of LUNA NG drones is 80-150 kilometers per hour, and the flight range exceeds 150 kilometers.
German UAV manufacturer joins Diia City for drone production in Ukraine
Quantum Systems, a prominent German drone manufacturer, has recently become a resident of Diia City portal, a move that is set to establish a Research and Development (R&D) center and drone production facilities in Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine announced on 8 December.
For the past eight years, Quantum Systems has been engaged in the design, development, and production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In 2022, the German government commenced the supply of drones from Quantum Systems to Ukraine.
This year, Quantum Systems responded to the Ukrainian government’s call to establish production facilities in the country by founding a Service, Support, Training, and Logistics Center in Ukraine. This initiative is seen as a strategic response to the growing demand for advanced UAV technology for use on the frontline.
Lapsed contract could deliver Australian fighter jets to Ukraine
The Australian Financial Review reports that Ukraine may soon make a fresh request for the RAAF’s retired F/A-18 fighter jets after a deal to transfer them to an American company lapsed. The 41 aircraft have languished at Williamtown RAAF base since 2021.
Amid stalemates on the battlefield and in US Congress for further funding of the war effort, Ukrainian defense officials this week included the 1980s-era F/A-18 Hornets as one of the weapons they wanted in top level talks with American counterparts.
Defence Minister Richard Marles, who said in July transferring the aircraft was “complicated”, was non-committal when asked about a fresh approach.
“Australia remains steadfast in its commitment to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s illegal and immoral war. Australia continues to work with the government of Ukraine to determine what support we can provide to enable Ukraine to end this conflict on its own terms.”
— Spokesperson for the Australian Defense Minister
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