UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-11
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Russians storm Synkivka to block Kupiansk, sending in reserves
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian occupying forces are seeking to capture the village of Synkivka with assault companies in order to pave the way for the blockade of the town of Kupiansk. They are currently deploying reserves in the area.
"The enemy is trying to capture the town of Synkivka with assault companies in order to set the stage for blocking Kupiansk. However, they are suffering heavy personnel losses. Therefore, they’ve started to move their reserve assault formations to the area."
— Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander of the Ground Forces AFU
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian Forces counterattack near Avdiivka
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Dec. 11 Intelligence Update stated that Avdiivka has remained the scene of the most intense fighting on the contact line, estimating around 40% of all combat activity in this small area. The Russian offensives have continued to be characterised by largely dismounted infantry assaults, often by Storm-Z units.
Ukrainian units have likely conducted successful local counterattacks, denying Russian forces full control of the village of Stepove.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Ukrainian defenders advance on Dnipro River's left bank in Kherson Oblast
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Dec. 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that the Ukrainian Defence Forces are continuing ground operations on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, holding their positions and fighting with the Russians near the village of Krynky.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River and are striking Russian positions in the area. Russian sources claimed that fighting continued near Krynky and noted a sustained high tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area.
The same sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces capturing new positions on Velykyi Potemkin island although ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces already control all of the island, reporting footage purporting to show elements of the Russian 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment (70th Motorized Rifle Division, 18th Combined Arms Army) striking Ukrainian positions on islands in the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
THE HOME FRONT
Ukrainian defenders destroy 18 Shahed drones and 8 ballistic missiles at night
Russian forces attacked Ukraine on the night of 10-11 December with Shahed drones from occupied Crimea, as well as ballistic missiles. Air defence systems have destroyed all 18 attack UAVs and eight missiles.Ukraine’s Air Force reports.
The military noted that the Russians launched a total of 18 Shahed-136/131 attack drones from airfields in Chauda and Belbek. Most of them [were downed] in Mykolaiv Oblast. Operations by anti-aircraft missile units and mobile fire groups from Ukraine’s Air Force and the Defence Forces finished off the rest
In addition, the Russian invaders hit Kyiv Oblast with eight ballistic missiles at around 04:00 on 11 December 2023. They launched them from the north, reportedly from Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. All eight targets were destroyed by anti-aircraft missile units from Air Command Tsentr (Centre).
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Russia's economy reaches dangerous overheating point
An new article in The Economist, with reference to expert assessments, claims Russia's economy may not be able to sustain rising government spending amid tight supply and inflation in the country.
The history of inflation in Russia is long and painful. Following the revolution of 1917 the country dealt with years of soaring prices, and then faced sustained price pressure in the early period of Josef Stalin’s rule. The end of the Soviet Union, the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and then Vladimir Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 also brought trouble. Fast forward to late 2023, as the war in Ukraine nears its second anniversary, and Russian prices are once again accelerating—even as inflation eases elsewhere
Look closer at Mr Putin’s wartime economy, however, and it becomes clear that it is dangerously overheating. Inflation in the services sector, which includes everything from legal advice to restaurant meals, is exceptionally high. The cost of a night’s stay at Moscow’s Ritz-Carlton, now called the Carlton after its Western backers pulled out, has risen from around $225 before the invasion to $500. This suggests that the cause of inflation is home-grown.
Many economists blame government outlays, which are soaring as Mr Putin tries to defeat Ukraine. In 2024 defence spending will almost double, to 6% of gdp—its highest since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mindful of a forthcoming election, the government is also boosting welfare payments. Some families of soldiers killed in action are receiving payouts equivalent to three decades of average pay. Figures from Russia’s finance ministry suggest that fiscal stimulus is currently worth about 5% of gdp, a bigger boost than that implemented during the covid-19 pandemic.
This, in turn, is raising the country’s growth rate. Real-time economic data published by JPMorgan Chase has lifted its gdp forecast for 2023, recently to 3.3%. “Now we confidently say: it will be over 3%,” Mr Putin recently boasted. Predictions of a Russian economic collapse—made almost uniformly by Western economists and politicians at the start of the war in Ukraine—have proven thumpingly wrong.
The problem is that the Russian economy cannot take such rapid growth. Since the beginning of 2022 its supply side has drastically shrunk. Thousands of workers, often highly educated, have fled the country. Foreign investors have withdrawn around $250bn-worth of direct investment, nearly half the pre-war stock.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
White House, Congress scramble on last-minute deals on Ukraine and US immigration
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will make his case for more U.S. aid for the war against Russia during meetings in Washington this week, as lawmakers struggle for a deal that would link funding for Kyiv with domestic immigration controls Reuters reports.
Zelenskyy has been invited to meetings at the White House and with members of Congress on Tuesday. Many Republican lawmakers have questioned continued aid to Ukraine.
His arrival in Washington comes as Congress is under a tight - if not impossible - deadline for acting, as it is scheduled to go into recess for the year by Friday.
The next round of Ukraine aid has been held up by a demand from House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans that no more funds be dispatched unless steps are first taken to harden the U.S. border with Mexico.
President Joe Biden has urged Congress to act by year's end and Democrats in Congress were trying to win approval of about $50 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine. Also included in Senate Democrats' measure is humanitarian and economic aid for the government in Kyiv, as well as $14 billion for Israel as it wages war against Hamas in Gaza.
Zelenskyy begins US visit on Monday, scheduled to meet Biden
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to begin a working visit to the United States on Monday, Dec. 11, and will meet with US President Joe Biden, His office stated.
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy will focus on securing unity among the US, Europe, and the rest of the world in supporting Ukraine's defence against Russian aggression, as well as strengthening the international order based on rules and respect for the sovereignty of nations. Key topics for discussion in Washington will include further defence cooperation between Ukraine and the United States, particularly through joint projects on the production of weapons and air defence systems, as well as the coordination of efforts between our countries in the coming year."
— Office of the President of Ukraine
The White House website reports that Biden invited Zelenskyy to meet on Tuesday, Dec. 12, stating that the visit will
"...underscore the United States’ unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion". As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, the leaders will discuss Ukraine’s urgent needs and the vital importance of the United States’ continued support at this critical moment", reads the message.
— Biden Administration
Zelenskyy in Washington, holds meeting with Defense Secretary and top general
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has begun his visit to the United States with a meeting with Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense, and General Charles Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Zelenskyy stated that the meeting had discussed challenges to global security, developments at the frontline and further Ukrainian-American defence cooperation.
"I began my visit to the United States with a meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and General Charles Brown at the National Defense University. I am grateful to the United States for the implementation of our agreements, especially on strengthening air defence, as well as to Secretary Austin and General Brown for their personal leadership."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy: I spoke with Orbán as frankly as possible
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening video address on Dec.10 has said that he had spoken "as frankly as possible" with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during the inauguration ceremony of the newly elected president of Argentina.
"On the sidelines of the inauguration, I talked with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán as frankly as possible. And it is clear that we spoke about our European affairs."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
This exchange took place against the background of Orbán's intentions not to support the decision of the EU summit on 14-15 December in Brussels to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union and to continue further financial and military support for Kyiv.
Tell me that doesn’t look like a lazy bear trapped in a cave by an angry badger
Romania to help Ukraine increase grain exports through Black Sea
Romania will help Ukraine export grain by creating an anchorage in the port of Constanța, the construction of which is planned to be completed in March 2024.
Dmytro Moskalenko of the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company reported that discussions on the creation of anchorages with Romanian counterparts began back in September. Romanian authorities promised to conduct a tendering process and develop a regulatory framework in January and February to put the berthing area into operation in March.
"An additional anchorage for Ukrainian agricultural products is planned to be launched in Constanța in March of next year. An agreement was reached in Romania at a meeting on increasing the export capacity of Ukrainian ports on the Danube,"
Dmytro Moskalenko, CEO of the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (UDP)
Hungary undermines EU unity – Lithuanian President
Threatening to block further support for Ukraine in negotiations on its membership in the European Union, Hungary undermines the principle of EU unity Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda waned according to an article in LRT
Nausėda expressed hope that the opportunity to invite Ukraine and Moldova to start official negotiations on EU membership and to grant Georgia EU candidate status would not be missed.
"We will use all means to persuade Hungary to change its mind,"
— Gitanas Nausėda, President of Lithuanian
Donald Tusk elected as Polish prime minister
The Polish parliament has given former prime minister Donald Tusk a mandate to form a new coalition government. The incoming administration will be sworn in at the presidential palace by President Andrzei Duda on Wednesday BBC reports.
It will put an end to the eight-year rule of the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which repeatedly clashed with EU authorities in Brussels. Mr Tusk's coalition won the elections in October, but had been unable to take office until now.
PiS, led by Mateusz Morawiecki, emerged as the single biggest party after the election, but other parties refused to work alongside it and it was not able to form a majority in parliament. President Duda, a PiS ally, nonetheless nominated Mr Morawiecki to remain in office, delaying the formation of the new government for several weeks.
But when he lost a vote of confidence on Monday, it paved the way for Mr Tusk to return to power.
MILITARY & TECH
British minehunting ships to bolster Ukrainian Navy
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps confirmed the transfer of two Royal Navy minehunter ships to the Ukrainian Navy.
Two Royal Navy Sandown Class mine countermeasures vessels (MCMVs) are being transferred from the Royal Navy to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in a move to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to operate at sea.
“These minehunters will deliver vital capability to Ukraine which will help save lives at sea and open up vital export routes, which have been severely limited since Putin launched his illegal full-scale invasion. This capability boost marks the beginning of a new dedicated effort by the UK, Norway and our allies to strengthen Ukraine’s maritime capabilities over the long term, enhancing their ability to operate in defending their sovereign waters and bolstering security in the Black Sea.
As an island nation with a proud maritime history, the UK and Royal Navy are particularly well-placed to support this endeavour, which will form part of a series of new coalitions formed between allies to ensure an enduring military commitment in support of Ukraine.”
— Grant Shapps, Secretary of Defence
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