UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-13
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb.13 stated that it was day 720 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 84 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 5 missile strikes, 113 air strikes, and 135 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 13 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment of the enemy.
Ukrainian missile troops hit 7 concentrations of troops, 1 artillery system, and 1 air defense system of the russian invaders.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Syn.kivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 attacks near Terny, and Vesele (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 22 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, plus 7 near Tonen’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 35 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack in the area of Prechystivka (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack west of Novoprokopivka (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Syrskyi announces transition to new stage of war against Russia
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in an interview stated that theUkrainian military has entered a new stage of warfare against the Russian Federation. Its goal is to exhaust the enemy.
According to Syrskyi, the main value for Ukraine is the lives of the military, especially those performing combat missions. Syrskyi states that Ukraine cannot afford to neglect the value of the lives of Ukrainians, acting similarly to Russia.
"We have transitioned from offensive actions to conducting a defensive operation. The goal of our operation is to exhaust the enemy, inflict maximum losses on them, using our fortifications, our technical advantages, in terms of unmanned aviation, EW systems, maintaining prepared defense lines," he says.
Syrskyi notes that this war elevates the importance of technological progress in the armed forces and the progress of armed combat itself.
"We are already seeing, and for us, this is not news, the use of ground robotic platforms. Modules that are remotely controlled, which make it possible to save the lives of military personnel. Thus, the war is entering a new stage," he says.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Siemens finally withdraws from Russia
Siemens AG’s Russian subsidiary Systems LLC (formerly Siemens LLC) is expected to initiate a voluntary liquidation procedure in February 2024 reported Interfax Russia.
Interfax cited that the reason was the firm’s inability to continue its usual activities related to the import of goods to the Russian Federation.
"The company has almost no assets left on its balance sheet, except for accounts receivable and cash on accounts (in the amount of 843.6 million roubles (approx. US$9 million – ed.). The company recalled that in connection with the EU sanctions against Russia, Siemens AG suspended new orders and deliveries to the country in March 2022," Interfax reported.
As Yulia would say: Awwww Sad!
Russia's exports plunge 28% in 2023
Russia's dependence on trade with Asia rose sharply in 2023 while its business with European markets plunged, Reuters reported. Asia's share of Russian exports and imports rising to 72% and 68% respectively, Russian customs service data showed.
Moscow stopped publishing detailed monthly export and import statistics shortly after it launched an invasion of Ukraine two years ago and Western countries started imposing ever-widening sanctions on it.
Russia's customs service kept exports and imports in tonnage hidden on Monday, but the two tables it disclosed still showed that its reliance on Asian countries rose sharply in both directions of trade in reaction to Western sanctions.
Russia's 2023 total exports fell by 28.3% to $425.1 billion with supplies to Europe down 68% to $84.9 billion, according to the data. Meanwhile, exports to Asia rose by 5.6% to $306.6 billion while the share of this region in Russia's exports climbed to 72% from 49% in 2022.
Grump here -This is a disaster for Russia. Even with my limited knowledge of economics I can tell how badly Vladimir Putin has bungled this. Russia, the most resource rich country on the planet has brilliantly managed to manoeuvre itself into a Import/Export deficit.
Russia introduces bill to limit activities of opposition media
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Feb. 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the Russian State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption Head Vasily Piskarev announced on Feb. 12 that he and other Duma deputies submitted a bill that would allow the Russian government to designate foreign organisations whose founders or participants are allegedly affiliated with foreign governments as “undesirable.” The bill would also prohibit foreign and stateless individuals who are involved in such “undesirable” organisations from entering Russia.
This bill will likely prohibit journalists from Russian opposition outlets based outside of Russia and foreign outlets with Russian-language services (such as the UK’s BBC and Germany‘s Deutsche Welle, among others) from entering Russia, thereby restricting their ability to report on domestic Russian affairs, and will likely further block the work of international and foreign non-governmental organisations in Russia. Russian authorities can also bring criminal charges and revoke acquired Russian citizenship from individuals found guilty of participating in a designated “undesirable” organisation.
Piskarev recently announced that the Duma is considering another bill that will ban Russian citizens and companies from advertising on platforms owned by organisations designated as “foreign agents,” likely in an effort to use financial coercion to censor Russian opposition media and critical Russian ultranationalist milbloggers.
ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin has been attempting to consolidate control over and stifle dissent in the Russian information space ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential election, although this bill will likely severely restrict opposition media operations in Russia for the long term.
WORLD NEWS
US Senate approves $95bn aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
In a pre-dawn vote, the Democratic-led US Senate approved a $95.34 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, meeting the 60-vote threshold required to advance the legislation to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, The Guardian reports.
Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican and minority leader, championed the bill despite widespread hostility to the measure within his conference, fanned by Trump’s opposition.
“History settles every account,” he said in a statement. “And today, on the value of American leadership and strength, history will record that the Senate did not blink.”
As the Senate-approved bill heads to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, the path forward for the aid package remains uncertain. US House Speaker Mike Johnson has voiced his rejection of the Senate’s proposal, citing a lack of stringent US border security measures, a key demand from House Republicans. (It should be remembered that the border provisions were stricken from the bill due to the objection of Republican senators.)
The aid package includes significant allocations, including $61 billion for Ukraine to address weapons shortages and counter Russian aggression, $14 billion for Israel in its conflict with Hamas, and $4.83 billion for Indo-Pacific partners, including Taiwan, to deter Chinese aggression. Additionally, the package earmarks $9.15 billion in humanitarian assistance for civilians affected by conflicts worldwide.
EU Considers Sanctions on Three Chinese Companies
The European Union has proposed new trade restrictions targeting around two dozen firms, including three based in China, accused of supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported.
This development marks a potential first for the EU in imposing restrictions on companies within mainland China since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The draft proposal also names firms in Hong Kong, Serbia, India, and Türkey, aiming to prevent European companies from engaging in trade with those listed as part of the bloc’s broader strategy to curb Russia’s access to sanctioned goods via third-country entities.
Previously, the EU had considered listing several Chinese firms for sanctions, but these were not pursued due to opposition from some member states and after receiving assurances from Beijing. The situation underscores the delicacy of the EU’s relationship with China, a critical trade partner, especially for Germany, where China serves as a vital market for automobile manufacturers like Volkswagen AG. For the sanctions to take effect, unanimous approval from all EU member states is required, and the proposals are subject to change.
In addition to targeting firms, the EU’s latest sanctions package—commemorating two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—proposes actions against more than 110 individuals and entities, further expanding its efforts to respond to Russia’s ongoing war.
EU adopts new measures to immobilise Russian assets
On 12 February, the European Council announced new measures targeting profits from the frozen assets of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), immobilised as a result of the EU’s restrictive measures following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
With over $250 billion in CBR assets frozen in G7, EU, and Australian jurisdictions—over two-thirds of which are held within the EU—this decision represents a significant effort to leverage economic sanctions against Russia for Ukraine’s benefit.
The European Council’s recent decision opens up the possibility of using the profits from frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank to fund Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
In a move that aligns with the G7’s stance, the Council today adopted measures to specify the prohibitions on transactions related to the management of these assets and outline the legal status of revenues generated by Central Securities Depositories (CSDs) from holding Russian immobilised assets.
The Council’s decision mandates that CSDs possessing over €1 million in CBR assets must segregate extraordinary cash balances accrued as a result of the EU’s sanctions and keep the corresponding revenues separate, prohibiting the disposal of net profits. However, recognizing the financial burdens associated with holding these assets, CSDs are permitted to seek authorization from their supervisory authority for the release of a portion of these net profits to meet statutory capital and risk management requirements.
New Finnish President: There will be no political relations with Russia until end of war
The winner of the presidential election in Finland, Alexander Stubb, at a press conference on Monday after winning the election said that there can be no political relations with Russia until the war in Ukraine is over.
Stubb noted that there are contacts between Russia and Finland at the level of diplomats and border guards, but there are no political relations.
"The policy towards Russia is simple. Diplomatic and official relations remain, but there are no relations with Russia at the political level, and there will be no relations until Russia stops the war in Ukraine," Stubb said.
He also noted that the security situation in Europe had changed after Russia's attack on Ukraine, and now NATO and EU membership determine Finland's foreign and security policy.
Stubb added that he intended to lead Finland's foreign policy in close cooperation with the parliament and he would take an active stance as supreme commander-in-chief.
MILITARY & TECH
KSRIFE Experts Confirm russia Likely Used the Zircon Missile to Strike Ukraine
Experts from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise (KSRIFE) have found preliminary evidence that russia used a Zircon missile in the February 7 attack, based on markings and components found in the wreckage, Defense Express reports.
During this strike, the russians used the “hypersonic” 3M22 Zircon sea-launched missile, which was aimed at an area without military objects, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure and harm to civilians.
The fact that it could have been the Zircon missile is indicated by the markings on the parts and fragments of the missile, the identification of nodes and details, and overall features of the corresponding type of weapon, wrote Oleksandr Ruvin, the director of the KSRIFE, on his Telegram channel.
Several fragments bear laser engravings and embossing with the inscription 3L22, signifying a particular assembly from a specific product. Moreover, the bolts on the steering mechanisms are labeled with the number 26, a distinctive feature of Zircon. Additional markings on the missile wreckage denote the production date of its components, ranging from late 2023 to 2024. This suggests that the missile was recently assembled.
According to open sources, the 3M22 Zircon is an anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile. It has the following characteristics declared by the enemy: range - 600-1500 km, speed up to 8-9 Mach, warhead weight about 300-400 kg, length 8-10 m.
Defense Express reported, following the downing of the missile considering the location where the wreckage was found, namely the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, and that electric power transmission lines are unlikely to become the target for a missile worth millions of dollars, the plausible version is that it was shot down by the city's air defenses. The official report from the Ukrainian Air Force, however, mentions only Kh-555/101 and Kalibr cruise missiles as intercepted (alongside Shahed drones).
Grumpy Here — The misleading term of “hypersonic” has reared its head yet again. Hypersonic in its strictest term just means any object travelling at more than five times the speed of sound or - Mach 5.
Any number of missiles since the 1960s has exceeded that speed, that is nothing new. The Holy Grail of what everyone is trying to achieve is a Hypersonic Cruise Missile – Meaning a missile that can manoeuvre at mach 5 or higher, making it almost impervious to interception.
To be clear no one, other than Russia, and China, has claimed to have a hypersonic cruise missile in production.
The fact that it appears that both of Russia’s supposed hypersonic cruise missile designs have been shot down would seem to make the case that should surprise absolutely no one at this point. Russia is lying… yet again.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!