UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-28
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 28 stated that it was day 704 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 79 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 8 air strikes, and 82 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks of the enemy near the settlements of Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 11 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast) and Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Stepove, Avdiivka, and 17 near Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 14 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks south of Zolota-Nyva and west of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups most active in Sumy Oblast
Andrii Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stated recently that border guards have recorded the highest number of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Sumy Oblast and the smallest number in Chernihiv Oblast.
In addition to mounting attacks, the enemy is attempting to use sabotage and reconnaissance groups. Enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups pose a threat not only to the Defence Forces but also to civilians.
On Jan. 27 a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group shot dead a brother and sister from Khotin hromada in Sumy Oblast.
According to the investigation, the occupiers fired at the vehicle with civilians inside on the morning of 27 January, while they were travelling between two villages.A 54-year-old man who was driving and his 68-year-old sister were killed. It is specified that their house is located in the village of Andriivka, which is located in the 5-kilometre zone near the border with Russia.
Authorities have once again asked residents to evacuate the 5-kilometre border zone.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
There have been 220 attacks on Russian enlistment offices since Feb 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Jan. 28 Intelligence Update reported that on Jan. 22 2024 Russian authorities reported that there have been 220 attacks on Russian enlistment offices since the start of the full scale invasion in Feb. 2022. Other statistics from media outlet Mediazona reported 113 attacks since Jul. 26, 2023. Taken together this indicates a doubling of arson attacks on enlistment centres in the past 6 months.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accuses those responsible for the attacks of acting at the behest of Western officials. However the increase is highly likely due to dissatisfaction with the war among the Russian population, especially those who would be mobilised if a second wave of mobilisation were announced. Some of the accused perpetrators have been charged with terrorism and treason.
Further mobilisation would be a contradiction of Putin’s promise during his Dec. 2023 news conference. The attacks likely suggest a lack of confidence in this promise.
Russian military spending is seven times higher than the NATO average
According to official information, the Telegraph reports. Russia spends 29% of all public expenditures on defence, while the NATO average is 4.3%, including the vast 11% contribution from the USA. The actual number may be even more in favour of Russia due to a large part of classified expenditures.
Russia has kicked its military production into high gear, far outstripping the west and NATO is struggling to increase weapons production at all and the US is paralysed by Russian interference and partisan infighting.
In the meantime Russia is transitioning to a wartime footing as Putin claims he is at war with “the west” — Grumpy
Russia is converting dormant malls into weapons production facilities. Russians have also been called upon to work six-day weeks and volunteer in factories as part of an intensified war effort. There is even footage from Russian TV which appears to show Russian children learning to assemble munitions parts in workshops.
Russia, the Telegraph reports, is spending 29% of all government spending and a staggering 40% of its GDP on this war.
“We’re currently in a scenario where Russia is spending 40 per cent of GDP on this war - that’s more than health and education,” a Western official told The Telegraph this week.
It is a statistic that the collective West is struggling to match. Over time, defence experts warn, it could give Russia the overwhelming materiel superiority to win the war in Ukraine.
Western officials told the New York Times this month that Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year - double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.
Production capabilities are already having a tangible effect at the front. Research published by security think tank RUSI this month showed that Ukraine was firing 7,000 artillery rounds a day during its summer counter-offensive, much more than Russia’s 5,000.
By this month, the Russians were firing 10,000 and the Ukrainians were down to 2,000.
“We need to recognise the fact that Russia has succeeded in firing up its military-industrial complex and adjusted to a wartime economy. With North Korea and Iran, Putin has reliable suppliers of military equipment that don’t care the slightest for their own people’s needs,” said Norbert Röttgen, a former chairman of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee.
So far, Russia’s output is unlikely to deliver enough material for it to return to the general offensive in 2024. It has taken too much of a mauling in the previous two years to generate a credible attacking force.
But the Kremlin is thinking beyond the end of this year.
“They are talking about mobilising their defence industry over the next three years, which implies they are looking to fight the war for at least three to four years,” said a defence insider.
The implication is clear: if the West does not act, Ukraine may lose the war. And what comes after that, no one knows - but there have been some alarming signals from Moscow about further land grabs in Europe.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ukraine, Lithuania agree on joint drone production
Ukraine and Lithuania have agreed on joint steps for manufacturing drones to meet the needs of the Ukrainian military, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said during a joint press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart Gabrielius Landsbergis in Kyiv.
The step comes as Ukraine aims to increase its drone production as Russia ramps up its own output in a war where victory is increasingly defined by drone superiority.
“Lithuania has the technologies, Ukraine has the capabilities to scale up production [of drones], and this was a key topic of our talks,” Kuleba said. “There is a clear understanding of what and how we will do it in order to make Ukraine-Lithuania cooperation in drone production deliver maximum results in the shortest possible time,” he added.
Landsbergis said Lithuania can quickly start manufacturing drone parts and components, as well as facilities for their production. He added that the Lithuanian government will support any industrial project that helps Ukraine and Lithuanian security, meaning Lithuania will assist any business in any sector ready to participate.
Taiwan becomes Russia’s top supplier of precision machine tools
An in-depth investigation by The Insider and Taiwanese outlet The Reporter has revealed that Taiwan has become the primary source of precision metalworking machines for Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, despite Taipei’s public support for Kyiv.
Precision machine tools, also called Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine tools, are the backbone of Russian military production, as they enable advanced arms manufacturing such as missiles, aircraft, or radars. There is not a single Russian tank, plane, or APC that does not have parts made with foreign CNC machine tools.
According to Russian customs records analysed by trade data firm NBD, between March and September 2023, Russia imported at least 193 Taiwanese-made machining centres worth a total of nearly $29 million, Russia’s Insider reported. Additionally, close to 80% of all Taiwanese machine tools shipped to Russia are being transshipped through third countries, especially Türkiye and China.
A Russian importer called “I Machine Technology” has imported the largest volume of Taiwanese machines. Data shows that from March to October 2023, I Machine procured over $17 million worth of Taiwanese machine tools, with 28 units shipped via Türkiye, 37 via China, and 16 directly from Taiwan.
Despite the evasion, experts say sanctions have still increased costs for Russia. “The Taiwanese manufacturers realize that it is illegal to ship high-end equipment to Russia,” said Sergei Guriev, professor at Sciences Po Paris. “This implies that intermediaries that help circumvent the sanctions charge very high fees – which is good, as this deprives Putin’s war machine of resources.”
Türkiye was noted as a prominent intermediary for imports of Western technology into Russia, another Insider investigation found.
It seems very self-defeating for Taiwanese corporations to be defying sanctions and involved in propping up Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Surely they realise if Russia is successful in defeating Ukraine this will only embolden Communist China to do the same to Taiwan, but I guess a quick buck matters more.
Corporations may be “persons” under US law, but this proves they do not have a soul. — Grumpy
US may provide military aid to Ukraine through Greece
Greek media is reporting that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has approached Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis with a proposal to donate or sell weapons to Ukraine in exchange for US$200 million in US aid.
In his official letter, Blinken writes that the United States is interested in defence assets that Greece could transfer or sell to Ukraine.
"Should these capabilities be of interest to Ukraine, and pending a US government review of their condition and associated value, we can explore opportunities for potential additional FMF funding of up to US$200 million for Greece."
— Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State
The US Department of State has previously authorised the sale of US$8.6 billion worth of US-made F-35 fighter jets and related equipment to Greece. According to a statement by the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which is responsible for supplying military equipment and weapons abroad under intergovernmental contracts, the deal involves the purchase of up to 40 fighter jets, 42 engines, guidance systems, spare parts and other equipment.
European partners do "too little" for Ukraine – German finance minister
Christian Lindner, Minister of Finance of Germany and Leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), has urged the European partners to increase their support for Ukraine according to German media.
He noted that it is unacceptable for Germany to do even more "so that others can continue to do too little".
Europe is a community of values, "which should be demonstrated now", Lindner said, stressing that Germany is already responsible for half of the European aid for Ukraine.
"We will not step back from our commitments," he stressed.
Earlier, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged European countries to increase the volume of armament supply to Ukraine, worrying that aid from the US could stop.
MILITARY & TECH
What long-range weapons Ukraine can get in the wake of the Ramstein-18 meeting?
Last week, the 18th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group took place via video conference. A key point announced following the meeting was a focus on increasing Ukraine’s long-range weapons and adapting Western missiles to Soviet-era systems for enhanced effectiveness. This has led to a speculative article in Defense Express regarding what possibilities this opens for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry confirmed that Ukraine will receive new long-range weapons, though the specifics of these weapons were not disclosed. Defense Express has speculated on the potential types of weapons Ukraine might acquire and their expected arrival times.
The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein group, comprises over 50 countries and provides military aid for Ukraine in response to the ongoing Russian invasion. Since both major Ukraine aid packages by the US and the EU have been delayed, there was public apprehension of diminishing military aid from Ukraine’s allies before the Ramstein-18 meeting.
“A productive meeting. The support continues. There were important statements and commitments. It will continue. This year, we will receive weapons that are not yet available [for us] and will help us to hit the enemy and its logistics hubs,” said Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Illarion Pavliuk following the Ramstein Format meeting
Defense Express experts believe that the recent meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group yielded two significant outcomes: firstly, the meeting paid special attention to providing Ukraine with long-range weapons and, secondly, the meeting focused on support for Ukraine’s air defense.
“Special attention was paid to deep strike weapons, i.e. systems that allow striking behind the contact line, and there is a full understanding of our partners that we need these weapons. The commitment to work to provide Ukraine with more weapons for such strikes was clearly assumed by the partners, they talked about it, and paid special attention to it,” said Pavliuk.
Defense Express notes that currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively using such deep strike weapons as Strom Shadow/SCALP missiles provided by Britain and France, which remain the only weapon of this type available for Ukraine apart from the limited one-time supply of ATACMS missiles by the US.
As for the new weapons already announced, in the short term, Ukraine is expected to receive high-precision GLSDB missile-bomb hybrids for HIMARS [multiple rocket launchers], which will allow it to attack targets at a range of 150 km.
The experts note that the German Taurus cruise missiles requested by Ukraine for months are unlikely to be transferred at all, and even if they are, Germany has only a limited number of those.
According to Defense Express, speculations abound regarding the potential transfer of advanced weaponry from the United States, including the AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missile, the long-range anti-ship LRASM, or the extended-range ER GMLRS rockets for HIMARS, among others.
The speculations abound regarding the potential transfer of advanced weaponry from the United States, including the AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missile, the long-range anti-ship LRASM, or the extended-range ER GMLRS rockets for HIMARS, among others.
One of the main options that Defense Express speculated about is the American Tomahawk cruise missile.
The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) is a long-range, all-weather, jet-powered, subsonic cruise missile. TLAM can be launched not only from ships, submarines, or bombers but also from a ground-based launcher. The range of flight for the Tomahawk with a 340-kg fragmentation-high-explosive warhead is approximately 1,600 km.
These missiles are exported; for instance, in November 2023, Japan received permission to purchase 400 Tomahawks for $2.35 billion. Meaning $5.87 million per missile, including 14 sets of the Tactical Tomahawk Weapon Control Systems (TTWCS).
The primary focus, however, remains on timelines as the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s spokesperson noted that Ukraine will receive many important types of weaponry capable of targeting “the enemy, both on and beyond the front line” next year.
Defense Express in summation states that, even if agreements were made to supply some of these weapons systems to Ukraine, it might be 2025 before they would actually begin to be delivered. The sole, other remaining option is for Ukraine to rely on its own capabilities. While possible, the development of a medium-range ballistic missile is a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar national strategic program that is challenging to implement even in peacetime conditions.
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