UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-06-28
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on June 27 stated that day 856 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 119 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 43 air strikes, 458 drone strikes and 2843 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force, Missile Forces and Artillery units have since earlier this day targeted five enemy personnel and OVT areas, an anti-missile complex, a radio deployment station and three enemy munitions warehouses.
Another Russian Su-25 shot down
Ukraine's National Guard claimed on June 28 it had downed another Russian Su-25 fighter jet in embattled Donetsk Oblast. The Kyiv Independent reports.
This is the second Russian Su-25 jet that Ukraine has claimed shot down this month. The General Staff said on June 28 that Russia has lost 360 planes since the launch of the full-scale invasion.
In a post on Telegram, the unit said the aircraft was on a combat sortie when it was hit by a "well-aimed shot" from a portable anti-aircraft missile system (MANPADS).
The video of the incident, released by the National Guard, shows grainy footage of the reported incident accompanied by the triumphant shouts of Ukrainian troops.
This is the second Russian Su-25 jet that Ukraine has claimed shot down this month. The General Staff said on June 28 that Russia has lost 360 planes since the launch of the full-scale invasion.
Ukraine Destroyed a Record Number of russian army’s Artillery Systems In June 2024
As of June 28, Russian occupying forces lost 1,239 barrel artillery systems in the past month. This is the highest number of artillery pieces lost in a single month during the entire period of full-scale war.
This is reported by the Ukrainian information resource Sprotyv.Info.
In general, compared to 2022, Russian losses in artillery systems in the first half of 2024 increased more than 5 times.
In addition, on Friday, June 28, the indicator of losses of air defence equipment by the Russians reached the second indicator since the beginning of the full-scale war. 56 units of air defence were eliminated by the Ukrainian military. The absolute record for the destruction of Russian air defence equipment was set in July 2023 with an indicator of 73 destroyed systems.
Air Force Daily Report
Over the past day, June 27, six UAVs were shot down in the areas of responsibility of the Southern Air Command and the Eastern Air Command, namely: two Lancet-type strike, ZALA-type reconnaissance, Orlan-10, SuperCam, and one unknown UAV.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 3 times unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Lyptsi and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy made 10 attempts to breach Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pischane and Stelmakhivka.
Lyman axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 8 times in the vicinity of Makiivka, Nevske, Terny and Torske
Siversk axis: The enemy attacked Defense Forces 6 times in the areas of Spirne, Vyimka and Rozdolivka.
Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 6 attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk axis: The enemy tried to breach Ukrainian defences 26 times in the vicinity of Dachne, Pivnichne, Toretsk, Zalizne and New York. One fight is still ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: This area continues to have the highest intensity of combat.The enemy conducted 27 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Vozdvizhenko, Novooleksandrívka, Prohes, Yevhenívka, Novoselívka Persha, Umanske and Karlivka
Kurakhove axis: The enemy made 18 attacks against Ukrainian positions in this area. The situation is under the control of our defenders.
Vremika axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
Orikhiv axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The enemy made 10 attempts to breach the defences of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
459 Ukrainian communities are without electricity on June 28
Ukraine’s government owned energy corporation Ukrenergo in a press release today stated that 459 towns and villages are without power and that stabilisation schedules of power outages will be valid throughout Ukraine on June 28. Suspilne reports.
"According to the forecast, due to the heat of consumption this afternoon and evening is expected to be 2.5% higher than in similar hours on June 27. Please, during periods when the light is returned on schedule, consume electricity sparingly. Do not turn on powerful electrical appliances at the same time”
— Ukrenergo
Many of the outages are due to fighting in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson region. Additional outages are due to technical issues caused by bad weather in the Zakarpatska, Lviv, Odesa, Mykolayiv regions.
Residential buildings and institutions in the central area were de-energized in Kyiv due to technological disturbances, they have since been repaired.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russians sent thousands of illegal migrants to war in Ukraine
Russians are actively recruiting illegal migrants for the war of aggression against Ukraine. This was stated by the Center of National Resistance of Ukraine, UNN reports.
The resistance explains that the occupiers are using “social elements” that are of little importance to Russia for the war in Ukraine in order to reduce social tension in Russian society.
These (elements - ed.) are prisoners and migrants. According to official Moscow, they have managed to recruit 30,000 illegal immigrants in exchange for Russian citizenship, but most of them will not receive citizenship because they will be liquidated in Ukraine
- summarised in the Resistance.
UK Defense Intelligence Analyses Attack on Russian Airfield
The UK Ministry of Defence in its June 28 Intelligence Update stated that Ukrainian strikes will cause some disruption to Russia’s ability to use UAVs to strike targets deep within Ukrainian territory.
With Ukraine successfully denying Russia’s ability to establish control of the airspace over Ukraine, Russia has been restricted in its ability to exploit its substantial force of fast jet and bomber aircraft. To overcome this failing, Russia has become heavily dependent on the prolific use of relatively low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These have been used to suppress Ukrainian air defences and attack targets, both military and civilian, beyond the range of its artillery.
On June 21, 2024, the Ukrainian Navy and Security Service of Ukraine reported they had struck russian 726th Air Defense Training Center at Yeysk airfield, russia. This base is one of at least five from which russia launches its UAV attacks against Ukraine. This strike reportedly destroyed 120 UAVs, of differing types, and wounded 9 personnel.
It is highly likely that, in the short term, these strikes will cause some disruption to russia’s ability to use UAVs to strike targets deep within Ukrainian territory from these locations. There is a realistic possibility that russia will disperse its UAV operations to less vulnerable bases and hence the impact will likely be temporary. It is likely that Ukraine will exploit its recent successes and continue with its counter-UAV campaign to the detriment of russia.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Negotiations are underway to send Israel’s Patriot systems to Ukraine
The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kyiv with up to eight Patriot air defence systems, dramatically improving its ability to counter Russian air strikes. The Financial Times reports
While not finalised, the arrangement would likely involve the highly prized Patriot systems being sent first from Israel to the US, before being delivered to Ukraine.
The outlines of the deal, which would mark a shift in Israel’s relations with Moscow, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials of the three countries, according to five people briefed on the negotiations.
Israel said in April that it would begin retiring its eight Patriot batteries, which date back more than 30 years, and replacing them with more advanced systems.
But the batteries, which have been used in Israel’s current war with Hamas, have not yet been discontinued due to concerns that tensions with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group could erupt into a full-blown war.
If realised, such a transfer would represent a massive change in Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. The country currently has at least four Patriot systems, supplied by both the US and Germany.
Ukraine has frequently requested that western allies supply it with air defence systems, in particular the US-made Patriots. Last week, the US announced that it was pausing the delivery of Patriot interceptor missiles to other nations to prioritise supply to Ukraine.
Israel has been cautious about taking sides over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine given the clout Moscow holds in Syria, where the Israeli air force often acts against Iranian proxies.
Kremlin claims 'provocations' from US drones over Black Sea, prepares potential response
Moscow's defence minister has ordered the Russian army to develop measures to deal with what the ministry called "provocations" from U.S. strategic drones operating over the Black Sea, saying they are increasing the risk of a "direct confrontation" between Russia and NATO. The Kyiv Independent reports.
In a statement on June 28, the Russian Defense Ministry said the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were being used to conduct reconnaissance and find targets for "high-precision weapons supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Western states."
"This indicates the increasing involvement of the U.S. and NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine on the side of the Kyiv regime," the statement added.
NATO drones operating over the Black Sea are no secret and can be followed using publicly available flight-tracking websites.
The Black Sea has become one of the main theatres of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Kyiv having multiple successes striking Russia's naval forces in the region.
Any country can fly drones over the areas of the Black Sea designated international waters, so long as they enter over the territorial waters of a country which gives its permission. NATO drones operating in such a manner are not breaking international law and do not enter Russian airspace.
However, Russia claimed that "such flights greatly increase the likelihood of incidents in the airspace with aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which increases the risk of direct confrontation between the alliance and the Russian Federation," adding that "NATO countries will be responsible for this."
Grumpy here - It should be noted that Turkiye, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine all border the Black Sea. The area in question would be either International waters OR within the internationally recognised boundaries of Ukraine, where Russia has no legal right to be. The area outlined in blue on the map below shows the approximate portion of the Black Sea that falls legally under Russian control.
NATO ramps up defence production to aid Ukraine
NATO countries are actively increasing the production capacity of their defence industries to strengthen Ukrainian forces, US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told The Washington Post in a recent interview.
Her remarks came ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington, scheduled for 9-11 July.
At this summit, a new command, which will coordinate assistance to Ukraine with its headquarters in Germany, is planned to be discussed.
According to Julianne Smith, NATO members’ industries are restarting production lines that were shut down many years ago.
The US ambassador stated that European defence production has increased by more than 40 percent, and the US is producing close to 80,000 rounds of 155s per month, compared to 14,000 rounds of 155s per month before the onset of Russia’s war.
She confirmed that a new headquarters to manage military assistance for Ukraine will be based at an American facility in Germany.
“What we’ve been working on here at NATO headquarters is some sort of new initiative that would allow the NATO alliance to coordinate all of the assistance that’s flowing into Ukraine and also to coordinate the training that many individual NATO allies have been undertaking in recent months and years,”
— Julianne Smith, US Ambassador to NATO
The US ambassador added that the Alliance has united around the assistance to Ukraine and will continue to aid the country amid Russia’s military aggression.
MILITARY & TECH
Finland announces $170 million in new military aid for Ukraine
Finland announced its 24th package of military assistance to Ukraine on June 28, consisting of defence material valued at around 159 million euros ($170 million). The Finnish Defence Ministry reports
“For operational reasons and to ensure the safe delivery of assistance, the exact content, delivery modalities and timing of the assistance will not be disclosed,” the Ministry noted.
The total amount of military assistance Finland has provided Ukraine now stands at 2.2 billion euros ($2.3 billion), the Finnish Defense Ministry said.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), which tracks international aid for Ukraine, Finland has also provided 239 million euros ($255 million) in humanitarian and financial support as of the end of April 2024.
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