UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-31 / 04-01
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
Yesterday Mar. 31 was Easter Sunday and I took the day off for family events. As a result there was no Draft on that date. Today I will report on the events of Mar. 31 and Apr. 1.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 01 stated that it was day 768 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past two days, 138 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 40 missile strikes, 162 air strikes, and 184 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces, during the previous two days struck 4 radar stations, 4 command post, 1 concentration of troops, 5 air defense systems, 1 electronic warfare station and 1 artillery system
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 1 stated that during the previous two days it launched air strikes on 7 anti-aircraft missile systems and 22 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment.
On the night of March 31, 2024, Russian occupiers attacked with 14 X-101 / X-555 cruise missiles launched from TU-95 ms strategic bombers (based in the Saratov region (Russia), 11 Shahed UAVs, and one "Iskander-M" ballistic missile (launched from occupied Qirim) and one X-59 missile (launched from occupied Zaporizhia region)
Ukrainian Defence Forces repelling the air attack included anti-air missile units and fighter aviation of the Air Force, mobile fire groups, radio-electronic combat means of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of anti-air combat, 18 air targets were destroyed: 9 х-101 / х-555 cruise missiles and 9 Shahed-136/131 UAVs.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: From Mar. 30 -31 The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Over the past two days Ukrainian defenders repelled 9 attacks near Terny and Verkhn’okam’yans’ke (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Over the past two days Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 15 enemy attacks in the vicinities of Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Over the past two days Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 37 enemy attacks in the vicinity of the settlements of Berdychi, Semenivka, Umans’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Massive Russian armoured attack repulsed in Avdiivka region
Soldiers of the 25th separate airborne (Sicheslavska) brigade skilfully repelled an attempted instant assault by the occupiers, who were moving in a column of 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles. Censor.NET reported.
Video of a portion of the battle was posted online, during which Ukrainian soldiers destroyed four occupiers' tanks and two armoured personnel carriers.
"A quick attack in the centre by the 90th Tank Division of the Russian Armed Forces. The first video showing the mass destruction of a Russian armoured vehicle column near the village of Tonenke in the Avdiivka direction by the Sicheslav paratroopers of the 25th Brigade. This footage shows only a part of the enemy's vehicles whose advance was stopped by our soldiers. In total, the enemy used 36 tanks and 12 armoured personnel carriers. 12 tanks and 8 armoured personnel carriers of the 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the Russian Armed Forces were destroyed or damaged. Brilliant work and excellent results!" reads the commentary to the video.
Novopavlivka axis: Over the past two days Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobjeda, Novomykhailivka, and east of Vodyane (Donetsk oblast). The enemy made 58 attempts, with air support to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Over the past two days Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 attacks, near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Over the past two days Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. The enemy carried out 5 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Kharkiv will need over US$10 billion for reconstruction, no plans for evacuation – Mayor
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov in an interview with liga.net said that more than US$10 billion is needed to reconstruct everything that Russia has damaged in Kharkiv.
Terekhov said that Kharkiv has several priorities in its budget, and one of them is recovery. Terekhov stressed that no city budget in the world can withstand the burden of US$10 billion, so the city is engaging international partners.
"Russia is lying when it says it only hits military targets. With each strike, we have more and more evidence that this is a real genocide," Terekhov stressed.
Regarding the destruction caused by Russia in the last ten days of March, Terekhov said that the Russians destroyed all transformer substations and damaged the local thermal power plant. There was a power outage in Kharkiv.
"It is impossible to restore these facilities quickly. They are working, but not fully restored. Together with the power engineers, we managed to perform a miracle. The next evening, the power went back on in residential buildings. Unfortunately, there is not enough voltage. We had to end the heating season early to save money," he added.
The city introduced rolling power outage schedules and decided not to light the streets.
"I cannot promise that we will restore all the capacity within a specific timeframe," Terekhov stated.
There were also interruptions in the city's water supply, which is directly dependent on energy. Kharkiv residents were asked to stock up on water.
"We are considering several alternatives. One of them is drilling wells, for example. In times of war, differentiation is needed in all areas.
"Evacuation is underway from the oblast where fighting is ongoing, and these people are heading towards Kharkiv. Currently, the city has a population of 1.3 million residents. So far, neither we nor the military see any grounds for evacuating from Kharkiv. This is part of Russian psychological operations to intimidate and unsettle the residents."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine's Intelligence assessment on russian Mobilization Resource and Training Quality
With the Kremlin's rhetoric assuming a potential military aggression against European NATO countries, backed by active reformatting of the armed forces, planned creation of new armies, divisions, and military districts, the possibility of a new powerful wave of mobilization is quite real. Especially so since the factor of presidential "elections" no longer constraints Putin to issue another unpopular decree and draft more recruits. Defense Express reports.
Against this background, estimating russia's capacity to train and form new units becomes an important way to assess the threat. Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (HUR) has been monitoring these activities for a while now, the findings revealed by its Deputy Chief, Vadym Skibitskyi in an interview with Apostrophe TV.
"The enemy has developed clear programs for the training of units. Moreover, for the training of units that were formed from scratch. It takes 27 days to form, for example, a battalion. This includes individual training, group training as part of a unit, and interoperability training. 27 days and an infantry unit is ready for use on the battlefield,"
— Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitskyi, HUR
Compared to the so-called "partial mobilization" campaign in the fall of 2022, when russian military training facilities were overwhelmed with the number of draftees, there likely won't be such a problem this time, Skibitskyi noted. On the other hand, with such a hasty boot camp, the quality of training recruits receive is poor. In support of his point, the intelligence official recalls that many of the prisoners of war held by Ukraine surrendered to Ukrainian forces in just a few days since their arrival on the frontline.
Moscow is aware of it but continues to crash-course the recruits nonetheless because the ultimate strategy is to use sheer quantity of manpower to achieve goals. Regular reinforcements with new recruits not only allow the russian forces to replenish the losses but, furthermore, grow in numbers.
"Currently, the ground [force] component of the enemy in our territories numbers about 474,000 troops. Until the beginning of 2024, this figure fluctuated between 450,000 and 460,000 troops. There is an increase, but it's achieved by forming up so-called reserve regiments and introducing additional units," Skibitsky pointed out.
"In general, about 80% [of vehicles] that the russian federation currently uses in the ground force component are the ones restored or taken from storage and modernized. Only 20% or even less are new tanks, BMPs, armored personnel carriers, artillery systems, etc. That is, no more than 200 new tanks are produced in russia per year," Vadym Skibitskyi emphasized.
He added, it is becoming more and more difficult for the russian defense industry to restore weapons from long-term storage because the age of armaments is going up the deeper they dig into warehouses. The need for scarce components is growing, and due to international trade sanctions imposed against the russian federation, it's becoming more difficult to modernize the archaic inventory.
Large-scale fire in Yekaterinburg, Russia at Uralmash plant
In Yekaterinburg, Russia, a large fire broke out on the territory of the Uralmash machine-building plant. The fire has spread to an area of several thousand square meters, according to local russian propaganda. RBC-Ukraine reports.
The fire likely occurred in workshop No. 57, where 500 liters of paint were stored. Plumes of black smoke can be seen from any part of the city.
The fire area has increased to 4,000 square meters. The building's structural load complicates firefighting. At the scene, 52 personnel and 17 pieces of equipment are working.
Uralmash is one of the leading enterprises in russia in the production of metallurgy, mining, energy and industrial equipment.
Sanctions have forced Russia to purchase goods for its military at a 60% higher price.
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Apr. 1 Intelligence Update stated that sanctions imposed on Russia likely continue to undermine key resources for the Russian defence industry. The country's isolation limits the number of countries with which it can trade directly, increasing the time and cost of acquiring goods it once could freely buy.
According to a study by the Institute for Developing Economies and the Bank of Finland, third countries charge a price premium of more than 60% for exports of some sanctioned goods to Russia.
While Russia has increased production of key munitions most commonly used in Ukraine, the sanctions will affect Russia's more advanced and sophisticated weapons systems. These systems almost certainly rely increasingly on foreign components and technology for production and development.
According to a study by the Institute for Developing Economies and the Bank of Finland, third countries charge a price premium of more than 60% for exports of some sanctioned goods to Russia.
"In addition, sanctions will continue to disrupt both the supply and demand for Russian arms exports, as well as significantly complicate payment mechanisms to Russia. This has almost certainly contributed to a significant reduction in Russian arms exports and increased delays in deliveries, including to some of its most important remaining arms customers," the UK Ministry of Defence said.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy's office addresses allies with important statement
The advisor to the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, has made a crucial statement to Ukraine's allies on Twitter
Without illusions. There is no positional war (no advancement, but the intensity of fighting is extremely high), no signs of "freezing". Rf has not solved its basic tasks (among which are destruction of a sovereign state, seizure and legal fixation of foreign territories, filtration/deportation and killing of large groups of disloyal population) and therefore continues to escalate. Rf is throwing all its resources to the war. A war of this type has only a military solution.
So, once again: let's have no illusions; it will not be possible to just sit and wait; it will still be necessary to dramatically expand military production and saturate Ukraine with a parity amount of weapons. The faster, the more effective and the better the situation will look…
— Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Presidential Office
Podoliak emphasized that Russia is throwing all its resources into the war, and such a war only has a military solution. He made this remark following the suggestion of certain European politicians suggesting “freezing” the conflict.
“We cannot afford any further delays” — White House to Congress on Ukraine’s air defence needs
A spokesperson for the US National Security Council, Adrienne Watson, released a statement following Russia’s night attack against the Ukrainian power grid on 29 March, which caused lengthy power outages in two more Ukrainian regions — Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, as well as the city of Kryvyi Rih. Euromaidan reports.
“Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults against Ukraine’s energy grid since the war began—depriving many people across the country of heat, water, and electricity in the still cold days of early spring,” Watson said. “This bombardment—part of a series of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure— is a terrible reminder of Vladimir Putin’s efforts to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people and plunge them into darkness. To help Ukraine protect against these ongoing attacks, we need the House of Representatives to pass the bipartisan national security supplemental bill so we can send Ukraine more air defenses. Ukraine’s need is urgent, and we cannot afford any further delays.“
Russia escalated its air attacks against Ukraine’s power grid on the morning of 22 March, hitting multiple Ukrainian hydro and thermal power plants, including the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant in Zaporizhzhia.
Elon Musk offers his unsolicited opinion on the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Internationally renowned military expert, dedicated Putin pal and part time brain surgeon Elon Musk took a break from bankrupting his companies and offered his unsolicited opinion on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine recently.
“The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall too,” Musk mused on Twitter.
Musk believes that while there is no chance of Russia taking control of the entire country due to the extreme resistance they would face in western Ukraine,however, he claims they will undoubtedly acquire more land than they currently hold.
“Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens,” further stated Musk.
Hey Elon, perhaps you should spend less time pontificating and more trying to keep your companies from going bankrupt.
Grumpy Here — These views are my own, they do however carry equal or greater weight to those of an ignorant billionaire with a penchant for dictators
MILITARY & TECH
Russia has begun production of the X-101 missiles with dual warheads
In January Russia announced that they had doubled the payload capacity of the X-101 cruise missile to 800kg Defense Express noted.
This weight is twice as much as the earlier variant of the rocket with a warhead weighing about 400 kg. But this is not about simply increasing the weight of one warhead, but about a decision with the deployment of two separate warheads. Photos of these new components analysed from a downed X-101 missile during enemy attacks on the night of March 29 revealed.
Defense Express noted that a second warhead is not uncommon in anti-aircraft missiles, but less so in cruise missiles, however, in the case of applications for ground strikes have a significant striking effect against people.
The ability for the installation of an additional warhead was due to the reduction of the size of the fuel tank. Which means a reduction in the range of the X-101, from 5500 km to 2250 km, however in the war with Ukraine, this is not an important tactical consideration.
France to send Aster 30 air defence missiles to Ukraine
French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced in an interview with La Tribune that France would provide Ukraine with “hundreds” of decommissioned but operational Aster missiles.
The defence minister said that transferring weapons to Ukraine does not affect France’s national security, as they are decommissioned.
The Aster 30 is an all-weather, vertical launch surface-to-air missile.The name "Aster" stands for "Aérospatiale Terminale", with French company Aérospatiale having been the project's lead contractor.
The Aster 30 can be launched from the SAMP/T air defence system, which Ukraine already has in service. It has a range of 120 - 150 km depending on the model and a top speed of mach 4.5
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