UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-31
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 30 stated that it was day 707 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 88 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 9 missile strikes, 99 air strikes, and 129 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Ukraine's spy chief: Russian offensive is about to end
Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, predicted that the Russian offensive ongoing since 2023 will soon succumb to attrition, allowing a new Ukrainian counteroffensive to begin.
"Currently, the Russian Federation's offensive operation is ongoing, having started in November 2023. As of now, it has been over two and a half months since it began. The results − well, you can see them for yourself. To say that they have achieved significant success would be untrue. Unfortunately for us, they have made some advances in the field. And also [you know] what happened near Avdiivka."
— Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence
However, Budanov added, these very minor successes are not what the Russians had counted on achieving. He noted that the enemy wanted to quickly reach the defensive line along the Chornyi Zherebets ("Black Stallion") River in Kharkiv Oblast and the administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but as it turned out, "they didn’t even come close."
"But their offensive continues. Somewhere in early spring, it will be completely exhausted... Currently, it's the enemy's move. It will end, and, I believe, ours will begin," summarised Budanov.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attacks of the enemy near the settlement Synkivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks near Terny, and Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 attacks near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, and 11 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 16 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area.
Zaporizhzhia axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 8 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russians jam mobile connection in occupied part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine's National Resistance Center (NRC) reported that The Russians are jamming mobile communications during the movement of Russian equipment in the temporarily occupied territories (TOT) of Donetsk Oblast, as they distrust the local population.
"The enemy jams cellular signals during the movement of Russian equipment, so that people do not report information to the Defence Forces [of Ukraine – ed.] in real time. This is indicative of the level of real occupation support by the locals in the TOT [The Occupied Territories]."
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine ranks 104th out of 180 in 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International
The Corruption Perceptions Index ranks 180 countries and territories around the globe by their perceived levels of public sector corruption, scoring on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean).
Ukraine has scored 36 points out of 100 in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and now ranks 104th out of 180 countries in the annual rating by Transparency International.
Since the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014, Ukraine has achieved a total of 11 points over the past 10 years, according to the study.
Transparency International, which calls itself “a global movement working in over 100 countries to end the injustice of corruption,” says Ukraine’s growth by three points is one of the best results in the world over the past year.
According to the rating, Ukraine is also one of the 17 countries in this year’s CPI that have shown their best performance ever.
Corruption problem in Ukraine is exaggerated, European experts assert
Despite the common view that corruption is the primary problem in Ukraine, European anti-corruption experts argue that this issue is significantly overstated. The exaggerated perception of corruption in Ukraine is largely due to its constant emphasis in media and public discussions.
In comparison to European countries, where corruption might not be as prominently highlighted, the continuous spotlight on this issue in Ukraine disproportionately intensifies the public’s perception of its severity.
This perspective was presented during the teleconference “Kyiv – Brussels,” organized by the European Union Anti-Corruption Initiative (EUACI) in collaboration with the Ukrainian media outlet European Pravda and the Brussels-based center CEPS, focused on the theme “Fighting Corruption: Ukraine’s Path to the EU.”
The roundtable included approximately 15 experts based in Brussels and Kyiv, comprising officials from the EU, national administrations of member states and Ukraine, representatives of international organizations, the private sector, civil society organizations, and experts from think tanks and academia.
Ukraine returns home 207 POWs in large scale Prisoner Exchange
On 31 January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine managed to return home 207 captives in a POW swap with Russia. Multiple sources indicate that Ukraine exchanged them for 195 Russian prisoners of war. Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War says it has been the 50th prisoner swap since the beginning of the all-out war.
“Today we managed to free another 207 Ukrainians from Russian captivity, returning a total of 3,035 people; we will do everything to bring everyone back” – address by the President of Ukraine
On 24 January, Russia halted an exchange after a crash of the Russian Air Force’s IL-76 in Belgorod Oblast. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that the aircraft allegedly carried 65 Ukrainian POWs, all of whom ostensibly died in the crash. However, these claims have not been confirmed so far.
Russians attack Ukraine with 20 Shahed drones and 3 Iskander missiles at night
The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia attacked Ukraine with 20 Shahed drones and 3 Iskander-M missiles on the night of 30-31 January, with Ukraine's Air Force and air defence destroying 14 of the UAVs.
The Air Force stated that the Russians launched 20 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs from Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), Kursk (Russia) and Cape Chauda (temporarily occupied Crimea) and three Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Crimea and Russia's Voronezh Oblast on the night of 30-31 January.
"The military assets and personnel of the Air Force, acting jointly with the air defence of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, have destroyed 14 enemy UAVs within Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad and Kharkiv oblasts."
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian cyberattack disrupts Russian MoD server
The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR) announced a successful cyberattack on a key communications server of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
According to a statement released by Ukrainian intelligence on the evening of 30 January, this cyber operation halted the information exchange between the Russian Ministry of Defense units using the Moscow-based server.
“As a result of a cyberattack, the server of the Defense Ministry of the aggressor state of Russia, which was used for special communications, went down,” the report detailed.
Earlier reports indicated that websites within the Russian domain zone “ru” had experienced widespread outages. The Coordination Center of Domains .ru/.рф, the administrator of national domains, acknowledged the issue.
Ukraine strikes another oil refinery deep inside Russia
In the early hours of 31 January, a drone hit an oil refinery in St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city and the Baltic Sea port, in a reported Ukrainian intelligence-orchestrated attack.
An explosion rocked the Nevsky Mazut oil refinery in the Baltic Sea port of St. Petersburg, Russia early on 31 January, according to Russian Telegram channels and local authorities. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) was behind the attack, according to intelligence sources.
Russian propaganda outlets such as Fontanka claim a Ukrainian drone struck oil tanks at the facility around 4:50 a.m. local time, additionally damaging some cars. Earlier air traffic restrictions were imposed at Pulkovo Airport between 3:53 a.m. and 5:11 a.m. due to the presence of an unknown object in the area’s airspace. According to Ukrainska Pravda’s HUR source, Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems tried to shoot down an incoming drone but failed. The oil refinery is approximately 850 km from the Ukrainian border.
St. Petersburg Governor Beglov claims no casualties or significant property damage from the incident, while local media outlets are reporting fires at oil storage tanks.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Macron – Russia's victory unacceptable, Europe must continue to support Ukraine even without US
French President Emmanuel Macron stated in a speech during his visit to Sweden, that Russia's victory in Ukraine is unacceptable for Europe, and that European countries should be prepared to support Ukraine "as much as necessary" even if the United States does not participate.
"First, we will have to be ready to act, defend and support Ukraine, whatever happens, and whatever US’ decision will be. I’d say we are lucky to have such a partner, such an ally [the United States – ed.]. But very clearly we have to be lucid of the fact that Ukraine is part of the European continent. And whatever the US will decide, we have to take the right and bold decision to support Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.
And we have to follow the line in the current strategy, which is it is impossible for all of us to see Russia winning this war. Because there is no more framework and security architecture on our continent if there is a Russian victory. What is the future of our eastern flank? What is the future of the whole of Europe? What is the future of Caucasus? What is the future of Central Asia, if the result of such an international involvement will be a victory for Russia?"
— Emmanuel Macron, President of France
He went on to say that in order to accomplish this, a number of decisions must be made at both the national and EU levels.
Orban privately acknowledges Hungary's inability to prevent Ukraine from joining EU
Telex, a Hungarian independent news outlet, with reference to unnamed sources, reported that during a closed-door parliament debate in the spring of 2023, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Budapest would not be able to prevent Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
According to Telex, Orban admitted during a non-public parliamentary meeting that although he believed that Hungary could exercise a certain degree of influence, it would not be able to create significant obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU.
Orban said that despite Budapest's objections, Ukraine's EU membership would be "pushed through [past] us relatively quickly", according to the article.
According to sources familiar with the details of the meeting, Orban told participants that the United States had promised Kyiv that negotiations on EU membership would begin by the end of 2023; this had been relayed to him by Hungary’s intelligence service.
During the closed debate, Orban said that Budapest would insist upon Ukraine’s reinstatement of the special rights that the Hungarian minority in Ukraine had before 2015, according to Telex.
MILITARY & TECH
New Ground-Launched Small Diameter bomb expected to arrive as soon as Wednesday in Ukraine
The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday, according to two U.S. officials and two other people with knowledge of the talks. Politico reported.
Ukraine will receive its first batch of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, a brand new long-range weapon made by Boeing that even the U.S. doesn’t have in its inventory, according to the four people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss matters ahead of an announcement.
The new bomb, which can travel about 90 miles, is expected to be “a significant capability for Ukraine,” said one of the U.S. officials.
“It gives them a deeper strike capability they haven’t had, it complements their long-range fire arsenal,” the U.S. official said. “It’s just an extra arrow in the quiver that’s gonna allow them to do more.”
The weapon, co-developed by Boeing and Saab, is made up of a precision-guided 250-pound bomb strapped to a rocket motor and fired from various ground launchers. The U.S. military has a similar version of the bomb that is air-launched, but a ground-launched version does not yet exist in U.S. inventory.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry recently noted that Ukraine’s long-range capabilities were a topic at the recent Ramstein-format meeting, without detailing the specific weapon systems discussed.
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