UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-20
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 20 stated that it was the 696th day of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 103 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 23 air strikes, and 59 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
US Officials press for Ukraine to fight a defensive war through 2024
The Institute for the Study of War in its Jan. 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that if Ukraine commits itself to defensive operations throughout 2024 as some US officials are reportedly pressing Kyiv to do, Russian forces will be able to determine the location, tempo, and operational requirements of fighting in Ukraine.
The Financial Times reported on Jan. 19 that US officials are advocating for Ukraine to take a more “conservative” operational approach focused on holding current territory and generating materiel and forces in 2024 for future counteroffensive operations in 2025. One US official reportedly argued that a strategy of “active defense” would allow Ukraine to build out operational requirements and prepare for a counteroffensive in 2025.
US military doctrine defines an active defence as the ”employment of limited offensive action and counterattacks to deny a contested area or position to the enemy. Ukrainian officials have stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting active defensive operations in areas where Russian forces are engaged in localised offensive efforts.
An active defence throughout the theatre, however, would require routine and widespread Ukrainian counterattacks and therefore still demand that Ukrainian forces commit considerable offensive capabilities to the front. FT reported that US officials believe that Ukrainian forces still could opportunistically exploit weak spots in the Russian defence while conducting a theatre-wide active defence. Limited opportunistic counterattacks - especially when not resourced adequately- are unlikely to result in gains commensurate with the resources they will inevitably consume.
A theatre-wide defensive posture would cede the strategic initiative to Russia and permit Russia to launch major attacks at times of its choosing, forcing Ukraine to burn scarce resources it would supposedly be generating during a period of “active defence.” Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zahorodnyuk stated to FT that focusing on defence without any offensive component would be ”a mistake of historic proportions” for Ukraine as it would hand Russian President Vladimir Putin the initiative and allow Putin to double down on ongoing efforts to convince the West and the rest of the world that Ukraine cannot win the war.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov similarly stated that Ukrainian forces need to continue to press Russian forces, particularly through operations that target Russian logistics in occupied Crimea.
ISW concludes a Ukrainian ”active defence” into 2025 would cede the theatre-wide initiative to Russian forces for at least a year and possibly longer, allowing the Russian command to determine where, when, and at what scale fighting occurs over that period. This extended period of theatre initiative would also give the Russian command significant control over determining what resources both Ukrainian and Russian forces must bring to bear. The Russian command would therefore have an ample operational window to conduct a series of campaigns of differing intensities across the theatre in Ukraine that could be specifically designed to constrain and degrade critical Ukrainian operational capacities needed for a future counter-offensive.
A Defensive stance leads to freezing of war, which Ukraine will never accept
Andrii Yermak, Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, in an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro has stated that the shift to a defensive stance often leads to the freezing of the conflict, whereas Ukraine will never agree to freeze the war with Russia.
"It is impossible to fight a defensive war. The transition to a defensive stance often results in the freezing of the conflict. We have seen this since 2014. We will never agree to a frozen conflict with Putin. The solution is not to stop, but to be realistic, strong, to stand together with our partners and keep going."
— Andrii Yermak, Head of the Ukrainian President's Office
Yermak added that the situation at the front is "undoubtedly challenging, but the motivation of our people, and that of our soldiers, is extremely high".
"The troops at the front point to a lack of people and resources and say they can no longer advance.
This is definitely a problem, and concealing this makes no sense. Some soldiers need to rest. Many of them have been on the battlefield for two years. The government and the General Staff are developing a new law on mobilisation, which will soon be submitted to parliament, and [are working] on a realistic military strategy. The transition period is still ongoing," said Yermak.
"We are relying on our partners and working to develop our defence industry. The Russians still hope to outnumber us in terms of resources. We have to rely on technological advantages. The front line stretches for more than 2,000 kilometres, most of which is the brutal fighting scene. We have to be realistic," said Yermak.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 12 attacks of the enemy near the settlements of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Tabayivka, Brestove (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 10 attacks of the occupiers near Terny, Yampovlivka (Luhansk oblast) and 15 attacks near the Serebryansky forest and Bilogorivka (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, and 19 near Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 12 attacks in that area
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 1 attacks of the enemy south of Zolota-Nyva (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks west of Verbove, (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
Russian infantry are attacking in Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka without armoured cover
Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesman for the Tavria Grouping of Troops stated during an interview that Russians focus their assault and offensive operations toward Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka, deploying infantry units without any cover by armoured fighting vehicles.
"the enemy is focusing its assault and offensive missions on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. In the Marinka direction near Novomykhailivka. Mainly these are infantry assaults almost without the use of armoured fighting vehicles," Shtupun added.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 10 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Logistics remain difficult for Ukraine on the Dnipro Left Bank but Russia is unable to dislodge them
The UK Ministry of Defence Intelligence Update for Jan. 20 states that Ukraine remains a presence on the left bank of the Dnipro and has continued to repel Russian attacks despite logistical concerns. On Jan. 16 a spokesperson for Ukraines Southern Defence Forces remarked that logistical resupply faced difficulties.
Russia’s Dniipr Grouping continues to be unsuccessful in all its attempts to dislodge the Ukrainians despite overwhelming superiority in numbers and weaponry. It is highly likely that poor training and coordination of Russian forces are contributing to this lack of offensive capability.
Forcing Ukraine to withdraw from the left bank remains a major priority for Russia. It is highly likely Russia will continue assaults on Ukrainian positions in Krynky despite staggering personnel losses.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
IAEA – Russian troops plant mines along Zaporizhzhia NPP perimeter.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Russian troops have reinstalled mines along the perimeter of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signalling ongoing safety and security challenges at the facility.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, has been under Russian occupation since 4 March 2022, but it keeps working.
These mines, located in the buffer zone between the plant’s internal and external fences, were initially identified by the IAEA team and subsequently removed in November 2023 but have now been reinstalled.
Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA expressed concern over this development, emphasising that the presence of mines contradicts IAEA safety standards. This area is restricted and not accessible to operational plant personnel.
In terms of maintenance, the ZNPP has informed the IAEA about its 2024 maintenance plan, prioritising the site’s safety systems and activities deferred from the previous year. However, the IAEA team has not received a detailed copy of this plan for review. Based on available information, the IAEA concludes that the ZNPP will not implement a comprehensive maintenance plan in 2024. Grossi emphasised the importance of a robust maintenance plan for ensuring plant safety, especially with the extended shutdown of the reactors.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine allocates record $ 466 million for fortifications
Ukraine’s government has allocated a record UAH 17.5 billion ($466 million) for the development of defence borders. This funding, announced on 19 January, is designated for the construction of engineering and fortification structures, relevant equipment, and a system of non-explosive barriers.
Furthermore, the government approved a mechanism to distribute an additional UAH 33.4 billion (approx $800 million) for reconstruction in communities.
The support will be provided in two stages, prioritising communities in dire need, particularly in de-occupied territories and areas where hostilities are ongoing.
In line with this effort, President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a 19 December press conference in Kyiv, addressed the fortification of front lines, particularly highlighting the robust defences constructed in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
According to the commander of the Joint Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Russia has about 21,800 troops in the northern operational zone, 1,800 of whom are in Belarus.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Lukashenko – Belarus Has Acquired Iskander Nuclear Missile Systems from Russia
Belarus has obtained tactical nuclear missiles of the Iskander complex from Russia, according to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a visit to an automobile plant in the Minsk region, reported by Russian propaganda outlet RIA Novosti.
“We received a lot of ammunition, missiles first of all,” Lukashenko added.
“I must thank the Russians: they helped us a lot last year. I'm not [just] talking about nuclear weapons here, which put everyone in their place… We have received such systems as Iskander from the Russians with their funding, although we pay them on other accounts,” the Belarusian leader said.
And don't say that ‘we will only keep it. It's not our weapon.’ These are our weapons that will contribute to sovereignty and independence,” Lukashenko said.
He also disclosed plans for the restoration of sites for missiles with nuclear warheads, asserting that Belarus could potentially receive strategic nuclear weapons if needed.
He emphasised that use of the weapons would be governed by“strict adherence to protocol” and only once approval was received from high-ranking officials.
Russians deploy air defence to Crimea and front line, leaving rest of Russia empty
Yurii Ihnat, the spokesman for the Air Force, said in an interview with Focus that the Russians deployed air defence systems to Crimea and the front line but had withdrawn them from other regions of Russia.
The following is an excerpt from that interview:
"The fact that they filled up the line of contact with it is 100% true, and the fact that Crimea is full of it is 200% true. But you see that the rest of the Russian territory does not have so many air defence systems.
It's basically empty there. Moscow, St Petersburg, Putin's bunkers will be more or less protected, but Ukrainian-made drones are capable of reaching Moscow, St Petersburg and other oil depots. This is a very good sign.
They [the Russians] feel the bitter taste of war increasingly. The Russians thought that ‘the special military operation [as Russia calls the war against Ukraine – ed.] was going according to plan’ and that the war would not affect them. Now it affects everyone. Unfortunately, we have been getting it for the past two years – fires, destruction and death. Now they will get it too...
I would like a million Ukrainian drones to fly and erase all of them to the Urals, but we understand that the possibilities are not unlimited for us and our partner countries."
Protests flare up in Russia’s Bashkortostan over 4-year “hate speech” sentence handed to local activist
The Baimak District Court of Bashkortostan has sentenced local activist Fayil Alsynov to four years in a penal colony for inciting hatred or enmity (Part 1 of Article 282 of Russia's Criminal Code), as reported by Ostorozhno Novosti and Verstka.
In the oral argument, the state prosecution demanded that Alsynov be sentenced to four years in a penal settlement – a minimum security penitentiary facility in the Russian criminal justice system.
During the penultimate court session in Alsynov’s case, up to 5,000 locals gathered outside the courthouse to support the activist, according to the estimates of local media and Telegram channels. They chanted: “Free Fayil Alsynov!” “Azatlyk!” (the Bashkir for “Freedom!”) “Fayil, we’re with you!” “Bez kara halyk” (“We are the common people!”) and “More will come!”
Anticipating the announcement of the verdict, another several thousand people came to the courthouse. The road leading to the building has been blocked, and mobile Internet is being jammed in the city. Local chats are reporting police brutality and arrests at the rally. Several dozen people appear to have been arrested.
According to witness footage, the riot police have been using truncheons, smoke grenades, and tear gas. The protesters retaliated by tossing gloves, hats, and chunks of snow.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Estonia expels Russian-backed Orthodox church leader over security concerns
Estonia has decided not to renew the residency permit of the head of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, Metropolitan Yevgeny (secular name Valery Reshetnikov). The cleric, who holds Russian citizenship, is required to leave the country by February 6 when his current residence permit expires, according to a report by Delfi, citing the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board.
The Ministry of Interior officials have repeatedly spoken with the Metropolitan, urging him to cease publicly justifying Russia's attack on Ukraine, but to no avail. Consequently, Estonian authorities have deemed the cleric a foreign national who poses a threat to the state's security. Reshetnikov has lived in Estonia for four years.
"The Security Police assess that Patriarch Kirill of Moscow consistently engages in justifying and supporting the bloody aggression of the Kremlin regime against Ukraine. The activities of both Patriarch Kirill and Metropolitan Yevgeny have helped to disseminate and encourage Russian security policy in Estonia,"
— Indrek Aru, head of the border guard bureau in Estonia's South Prefecture.
The official stressed that the decision concerns solely Metropolitan Yevgeny and does not affect the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate and its followers.
MILITARY & TECH
Russians complain they are confounded by Ukrasine’s Plastun ELINT system
Plastun is a Ukrainian mobile tactical direction finding system which seems to be causing troubles for the russian invasion forces, Defense Express writes.
Hindered communication is one of the most critical problems the russian army is facing in Ukraine, multiple russian "military correspondents" mentioned in their social media channels, as they pinpoint the root of the issue — namely, the ELINT systems widely deployed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
In particular, they complain about the Plastun portable direction finding system, manufactured by Ukrainian-based Infozahyst. And it's not the specifications of this system that are so concerning as the integrity of the ELINT coverage they provide due to the sheer quantity of Plastuns placed along the frontline.
The bloggers note that Ukrainian forces are able to constantly monitor the operational situation 5 to 20 km deep into their positions with high accuracy of geographical coordinates, identification, and occasionally wiretapping into tactical-link radio comms.
As a result, the Ukrainians can urgently launch strikes, in which case reconnaissance UAVs act as a supportive means of visual confirmation of the target and results of the strike, whereas the initial target data from ELINT is usually enough to launch the attack. In practical terms, it means Ukrainian artillery or other units engaged for the strike don't need to waste time waiting for the drone to deploy on the spot and confirm the information from the antennas.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!