UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-21
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 21 stated that it was day 757 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 70 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 69 air strikes, and 123 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 ammunition depot of the russian invaders.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 10x concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment of the adversary.
On the night of Mar. 21, the enemy attacked Kyiv region with two ballistic missiles "Iskander-M" (KN-23) and H-47M2 "Kinjal", as well as 29 cruise missiles x-101 / x-555 launched from 11 TU-95m strategic bombers based at Engels Air Force base (Russia).
As a result of successful defensive activities, all enemy missiles were shot down
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, Vesele and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Semenivka, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke, Netailove and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast). The enemy, supported by aviation, made 24 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and south of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
UN's Human Rights Monitoring Mission reports Russian human rights violations in Occupied Ukraine
The UN's Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has released its first comprehensive report on the situation in the territories of Ukraine occupied since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
The U.N. was not provided access to Russian-occupied areas, the report was based on 2,319 remote and in-person interviews with witnesses and victims.
The report said its investigators had verified the executions of 26 civilians, including two children, on the spot, for instance during house searches, as well as the killing of a further 30 civilians during detention. Most executions were committed between March and May 2022
The report said torture in places of detention was widespread.
"OHCHR received credible and reliable accounts regarding the treatment of 171 civilian detainees and found that 90% of them had been tortured or ill-treated," it said.
"Russian armed forces, law enforcement and penitentiary authorities used several types of violence: severe beating, kicking, cutting, putting sharp objects under the fingernails, waterboarding, mock executions, and applying electric shocks."
Forty-eight civilian detainees, including a child, were subjected to conflict-related sexual violence, including rape and genital mutilation, the report said.
OHCHR also documented cases of sexual violence by Russian armed forces on 16 civilians outside of detention -- almost all of these were women.
THE HOME FRONT
Massive Russian missile attack on Kyiv region: Wounded civilians and damaged residences
In the early morning of Mar. 21, Russia conducted a massive missile launch targeting the territory of the Kyiv region. RBC-Ukraine reported
The Ukrainian Air Force stated that the enemy attacked Kyiv region with two ballistic and 29 cruise missiles launched from 11 TU-95m strategic bombers based at Engels Air Force base (Russia).
As a result of successful defensive activities, all enemy missiles were shot down.
At least two individuals have been reported injured. Civilian infrastructure has been significantly damaged as well, according to the Prosecutor General's Office.
As a result of the hostile shelling, two individuals sustained shrapnel injuries. Information regarding the casualties is currently being clarified.
Kyiv City Military Administration later reported that a total of 12 people had been injured.
"Debris from enemy aerial targets damaged private residences, agricultural structures, and vehicles in several areas of the region," the statement reads.
Authorities have reported fires breaking out at the impact sites of the debris, which emergency responders from the State Emergency Service have managed to contain.
NATO calls for mobilisation in Ukraine to replace fallen and wounded servicemen
Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, stated during his speech at the Kyiv Security Forum on Mar. 21 that he believes additional mobilisation in Ukraine is necessary.
The chair of the NATO Military Committee stated that Ukraine needs not only weapons but also people to continue the war effort.
"We don’t only need grenades and tanks and armoured vehicles, but also, unfortunately, new soldiers, because soldiers die and soldiers get wounded. And then you talk about mobilisation. It’s cumbersome in a democracy, it’s cumbersome in a liberal economy to convince people; I see there is a change," Bauer said.
The chair of the NATO Military Committee also warned against excessive pessimism regarding Ukraine's ability to win the war and called for further support for Kyiv.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian intelligence: Damage confirmed in strike on Engels airbase in Russia
On Mar. 20 Engels Air Force base in Russia was attacked by multiple drones. Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) stated that while the HUR is still analysing data they can confirm there was damage caused. RBC-Ukraine reports.
"The Russians themselves, in public sources, report damage to at least two aircraft. We will be cautious for now, clarify that as a result of this incident, of course, there is damage, data is being collected," he said.
The intelligence officer explains that the Engels airfield remains a very important strategic object for Russia. It is a base from which bombers strike Ukraine. According to the representative of the intelligence, the facility also poses a danger to Europe.
ISW - Ukraine’s ability to target military infrastructure within Russia, threatens major consequences for Russia
The Institute for the Study of War in its Mar. 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian air base in Saratov Oblast [Engels AFB] on March 20 amid further indications that Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia are achieving limited asymmetric effects against Russian military assets and economic output.
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes against oil refineries within Russia may have significantly disrupted Russia’s refining capacity. Bloomberg reported on Mar. 20 that Ukrainian drone strikes may have disabled up to 11 percent of Russia’s total refining capacity
Torbjorn Tornqvist, Chief Executive Officer of multinational energy commodities trading company Guvnor, estimated on March 18 that Ukrainian strikes have taken 600,000 barrels of daily Russian oil refining capacity offline, and American multinational financial institution JPMorgan Chase and Co. estimated that the strikes have taken 900,000 barrels of daily refining capacity offline.
The decline in Russia’s refining capacity appears to have prompted a surge in gasoline and diesel prices on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, but only a marginal increase in the cost of domestic fuel prices within Russia.
Tornqvist estimated that offline Russian refining capacity will likely immediately impact Russian distillate exports (petroleum products produced in conventional distillation operations)
Ukrainian drone strikes against targets within Russia are also likely increasing pressures on available Russian air defense assets. Director of the Russian Energy Ministry’s Department for the Development of the Gas Industry Artem Verkhov stated on March 19 that the Russian Energy Ministry is working with Rosgvardia on proposals to deploy Pantsir-S1 air defense systems to strategic energy facilities within Russia.
HUR spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated that Russia has already deployed Pantsir air defense systems at energy facilities, however, and that Russian claims about the planned deployments are meant to reassure the Russian public.
The Ukrainian ability to target Russian military infrastructure within Russia, threaten Russian oil refining and exports, and increase pressure on Russia’s air defense umbrella demonstrates that Ukraine can achieve asymmetrical impacts through strikes with limited numbers of mostly domestically produced drones.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Hungary plans to block EU confiscation of Russia's frozen assets for Ukraine
DW quotes sources as saying that the European Commission's proposal to confiscate income from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine is unlikely to be approved at the summit of European Union leaders, which will begin in Brussels on Thursday, March 21. Hungary opposes the use of this money to buy weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Sources explain that there is a common understanding among most EU member states that the confiscated funds should be used to buy weapons and ammunition for Ukraine's Armed Forces.
"Ukraine needs more money for weapons, unfortunately, not for reconstruction. And we are striving to do everything to avoid further destruction in Ukraine," said a European diplomat on condition of anonymity.
The European Commission's proposal states that 90% of the proceeds from frozen Russian assets should be used to buy weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, Hungary opposes this, saying that the money should be spent on anything but weapons for Ukrainians.
MILITARY & TECH
The Netherlands Provides €350 Million Aid Package for Ukraine, Including Ammunition for F-16 Aircraft
Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren has recently announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. Worth approximately €350 Million.
Included in the package is 150 million euros for weapons for the F-16 fighter jets. The projectiles will be purchased directly from production. She also said that the Netherlands had secured a contract for new ISR-drones for Ukraine worth about €200 million, together with partner countries.
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