UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-12
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 12 stated that it was day 748 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 72 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 8 missile strikes, 114 air strikes, and 107 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems, and 1 1L219 Zoopark counter-battery radar system of the russian invaders.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 12 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 8 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, and 1 enemy command post.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 15 attacks near Terny, and Hryhorivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka plus east of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomvahkilivka (Donetsk oblast) Over the last day, the enemy supported by aviation, made 21 attempts to break through the defences of Ukrainian troops.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Robotyne, northwest of Verbove and south of Staromaiors’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian Air Force Destroys russian Command Post on the Mechanic Pogodin Tanker
On March 11, 2024, the Ukrainian Air Force executed a successful strike, Defense Express reports, destroying russian command post situated aboard the Mechanic Pogodin vessel. This ship, marooned near the Kinburn Spit following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the summer of 2023, had been repurposed by russians as an observation post for reconnaissance, a command centre for controlling FPV kamikaze drone strikes in Kherson region, and outfitted with electronic warfare equipment.
In response to these circumstances, the Ukrainian Navy declared the Mechanic Pogodin tanker a legitimate military target. Notably, the vessel, owned by a russian shipping company and seized in 2018 for violating Ukraine’s sanctions regime, had been stationed in the port of Kherson until the summer of 2023.
The destruction of the Mechanic Pogodin tanker, integrated into russian electronic warfare and reconnaissance systems, as well as command and communication infrastructure, thwarted hostile operations.
Unconfirmed conjecture reported that local russian commander Mikhail Teplinsky, may have been present at the time of the strike.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy says frontline situation better than in prior three months.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with France's BFM television on Monday that the situation along the front of Ukraine's war with Russia was the best it had been in three months, with Moscow's troops no longer advancing after their capture last month of the eastern city of Avdiivka. Reuters reported.
"The situation is much better than it has been over the past three months," Zelenskiy said in comments voiced over in French.
"We have had some difficulties because of shortages of artillery shells, an air blockade, Russian long range weapons and the great intensity of Russian drone attacks.
"We have worked in very efficient fashion... against Russian aviation. We have recovered in our situation in the east. The advance of Russian troops has been stopped,"
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces had downed large numbers of Russian aircraft and "continue to act in a strong manner in the Black Sea," where Russian military targets have come under repeated attack.
And Kyiv's forces had built up three lines of fortifications over more than 1,000 km of territory, he added.
Zelenskyy also said he believed a Russian missile strike in Odesa while he and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis were visiting the port city last week showed that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin had "taken leave of the real world".
"Was he aiming at me? That's not what matters now," he said. "When you make a cruise missile strike a few hundred metres from a European leader, I think you have to be truly ill."
SBU exposes spy ring operating from Russian run church
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) neutralised a Kyiv-based criminal ring that is believed to have been operating under the cover of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate), performing various malign influence operations on Russia’s FSB orders. Ukrinform reports.
The SBU detained four key culprits, including one of the leading clerics at an UOC (MP) temple, who was part of the Russian human asset network. This is one of the largest FSB networks exposed in Ukraine since the large-scale invasion.
The ring had a clear hierarchy and functions’ division, being in constant contact with the largest Russian media outlets that would immediately pick up certain content.
According to the investigation, the cleric detained during the raid served as the network coordinator He was responsible for circulating reports inciting inter-religious enmity and justifying Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
To this end, the perpetrator would personally instruct his subordinates within the network – other members of the criminal organisation, who operated under the cover of "political pundits", posting provocative content, including videos.
The suspects would spread their malign content across dozens of controlled channels on Telegram and YouTube, as well as on Facebook pages and on the official websites of various dioceses of the UOC (MP).
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine strikes major Russian refinery in major attack
On Mar. 12 Ukraine pounded targets in Russia with dozens of drones and rockets in an attack that inflicted serious damage on a major oil refinery Russia and Ukraine have both used drones to strike critical infrastructure, military installations and troop concentrations in their more than two-year war, with Kyiv hitting Russian refineries and energy facilities in recent months. Reuters reports.
In one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia to date, Moscow said it downed 25 Ukrainian drones over regions including Moscow, Leningrad, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Tula and Oryol. Waves of drone attacks continued through the day, the defence ministry said.
Russian officials reported attacks on energy facilities, including a fire at Lukoil's NORSI refinery and a drone destroyed on the outskirts of the town of Kirishi, home to Russia's second largest oil refinery.
Gleb Nikitin, governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, posted a picture of a fire truck beside the NORSI refinery and said emergency services were working to put out a blaze there. "A fuel and energy complex facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles," Nikitin said on Telegram.
Striking Russian oil facilities is a problem for President Vladimir Putin as he faces off against the West over Ukraine, with domestic gasoline prices sensitive ahead of a Mar. 15-17 presidential election. Russia imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports on March 1.
Russia has vast energy reserves but has, since oil was discovered in the wilds of Western Siberia in the 1960s, often relied on Western technology to exploit and refine its crude.
The Kremlin said the Russian military was doing everything necessary and that what it calls its military operation in Ukraine would continue. Russia claims to have destroyed more than 15,000 Ukrainian-launched drones since the start of the war.
Russia’s defense industrial base not sustainable in long term
The Institute for the Study of War in it’s Mar. 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russia’s increased defense industrial base (DIB) production is unlikely to be sustainable in the medium- and long-term due to labor shortages, decreased weapons and equipment stockpiles, and an inability to fully compensate for military and dual-use items it can no longer acquire due to sanctions.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian military command is aiming to create a “strategic reserve” for offensive operations in spring–summer 2024 but is not planning to equip these newly formed units and formations with the doctrinally required quantities of weapons and equipment due to current Russian DIB production constraints.
Mashovets stated that the Russian military command only plans to equip the 27th Motorized Rifle Division — which Russia is reportedly in the process of standing up on the basis of the Central Military District’s existing 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade — with up to 87 percent of its doctrinally required amounts of weapons and equipment by the second and fourth quarters of 2024 and implied that the Russian military command has a similar goal for other new formations and units. Mashovets assessed that it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to meet this equipment goal by the fourth quarter of 2024 given that many Russian regiments, brigades, and divisions currently operating in Ukraine only have about 30 percent of the doctrinally required amounts of weapons and equipment.
Several Western and Ukrainian military officials and analysts noted that Russia’s reported tank production numbers largely reflect restored and modern tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.
Mashovets’ assessment is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the Russian DIB is capable of sustaining Russia’s current tempo of operations, although not likely able to fully support a potential operational or strategic-level offensive operation using a strategic reserve of manpower 2024.
Reports that the Russian military is prioritising creating new under equipped units and formations are consistent with ISW‘s assessment that Russia is prioritising the quantity of manpower and materiel over the quality of its forces
The Russian military command appears to be prioritising short-term benefits, such as limited territorial gains, over long-term sustainability and large-scale operationally meaningful undertakings in Ukraine amid ongoing Russian reformation and reconstitution efforts. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command’s use of ongoing force structure changes to rush newly created and understrength formations into combat in Ukraine will likely constrain the immediate efficacy of these units on the battlefield but is enough to maintain the current pace of operations.
The major variable likely to determine the rate at which such partially replenished Russian forces can advance this summer is the availability of materiel to Ukraine, which in turn depends heavily on the continued provision of US military assistance.
WORLD NEWS
Switzerland launches criminal investigation into violation of sanctions against Russia
The Swiss attorney general has launched the first criminal investigation into alleged violations of sanctions against Russia by an unnamed company. This was the first sign that Bern is ready to prosecute groups of people for doing business with Moscow, the Financial Times reported.
The company may have violated Swiss rules by using its subsidiaries abroad, the attorney general's office said, declining to name the group or the sector in which it operates.
The action against the Swiss-based group marks a turning point for sanctions enforcement in Switzerland.
The Attorney General took up the case after the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco), which is the government department responsible for sanctions enforcement, asked him to open a criminal investigation.
U.S. preparing new weapons package for Ukraine-officials
The United States is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine that could be worth as much as $400 million, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday, the first such move in months as additional funds for Kyiv remain blocked by Republican leaders in Congress.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said an announcement was expected later on Tuesday. One of the officials said that the funding for this package is from credits refunded to the Pentagon for recent purchases.
EU aims to fast-track up to €3bn for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets
Brussels is pushing to give Ukraine €2bn-€3bn this year from profits derived from Russia’s frozen assets, accelerating the funding plan as US financial support to Kyiv wanes. The Financial Times reported.
The European Commission is preparing a plan, according to officials, that would involve seizing sanctions-related profits, dating from February onwards, earned at the central securities depository Euroclear.
After months of wrangling, a first tranche of money could be disbursed as early as July if Brussels can secure approval of member states, officials said. The proposal is expected before a summit of EU leaders next week.
Czech initiative receives commitments for 200,000 more artillery shells
The Czech-led initiative to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition received "non-binding commitments" for a further 200,000 shells, in addition to the confirmed purchase of 300,000 rounds, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on March 12, according to the Czech Press Agency, The Kyiv Independent reports.
"I consider this a great success. It is another proof that Czechia is a full-fledged active player in the European security policy," Fiala said at a security conference in Prague.
Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Prague had identified 500,000 155 mm shells and 300,000 122 mm shells outside Europe that could be bought and sent to Ukraine after the necessary funds were allocated to the initiative.
Pavel announced on March 7 that all the funds for the 800,000 shells had been collected. Fiala and other Czech officials later disputed this statement, saying that only the purchase of 300,000 shells has been secured so far.
According to the Czech prime minister, 18 countries have already joined the initiative.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian defence industry company successfully tests Novator armoured car
Ukrainian Armor defence industry company has reported the Novator 10-seater specialised armoured car equipped with the domestically produced TAVRIA-14.5 combat remote-controlled module has successfully passed the tests.
The TAVRIIA-14.5 combat remote-controlled turret is armed with a 14.5 mm machine gun (Volodymyrov tank machine gun) carrying 200 rounds of ammunition.
The weapon system is equipped with the latest and most unique weapon control system, which includes a high-quality stabilisation system, can capture and follow targets while also successfully hitting enemy targets in motion. Its optical-electronic module that can detect targets up to 5 kilometres away, day or night.
The combat module's armour protection level corresponds to NATO STANAG 1.
Ukrainian Armor also points out that the use of high-speed manoeuvrable armoured vehicles equipped with remotely controlled combat modules not only expands the opportunities for fighting at a distance, but also saves soldiers’ lives.
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