UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-12
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb.12 stated that it was day 719 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 100 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 110 air strikes, and 95 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Tabaivka and Ivanivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 attacks near Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 19 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 23 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, plus 18 near Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Russia deploys special forces to storm Avdiivka
Dmytro Lykhovii, spokesperson for the Tavria operational strategic group stated that Russia continues its assaults in the area of Avdiivka.
"We can see the enemy's intentions, they want to quickly encircle Avdiivka. We are countering, the front line is moving in both directions. There is a regular Russian army there, very well-trained, motorised riflemen, paratroopers, and special forces," he said.
Lykhovii further stated that the Russians used to use the tactics of small infantry groups near Avdiivka. However, recently they have changed their actions and started to engage more armoured vehicles - tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
Avdiivka is called the "gateway to Donetsk", and Russian invaders have been trying to capture the city since the fall of 2023. According to the Ukrainian military, the Russians have lost tens of thousands of soldiers in the battle for Avdiivka.
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 32 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack north of Pryyutne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia constructing 30-km wall of train cars in occupied Donetsk Oblast
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Feb. 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults.
Satellite imagery dated May 10, 2023, and February 6 and 10, 2024 shows that Russian forces constructed a long line of train cars stretching from occupied Olenivka (south of Donetsk City) to Volnovakha (southeast of Vuhledar and north of Mariupol) over the past nine months.
The railway line between Olenivka and Volnovakha is roughly six kilometers from ISW’s current assessed frontline southeast of Novomykhailivka at its closest point and is in an area of the front that was relatively inactive when Russian forces reportedly began construction. Russian forces have recently made marginal territorial gains in this area.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine’s Air Forces destroy 14 of 17 Russian drones, one guided missile overnight
Russian forces attacked Ukraine overnight with 17 Shahed-type drones Russia launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Russia, one Kh-59 guided missile launched from TOT of Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and with S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Belgorod Oblast, Russia, the Air Force reported on 12 February.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russian military attacked the Pavlohrad district with six drones and the Novomoskovsk district with a missile, local Governor Serhii Lysak said. The attack of Russian drones caused a fire at an energy facility, which rescuers extinguished.
About 29,000 consumers remain without electricity in the Pavlohrad district. About 10,000 customers in Ternivka are without water.
Japan provides Ukraine with 'ground armour' for energy sector
Ukraine will receive 1,800 gabions from Japan, which will be used for the physical protection of critical infrastructure facilities in various regions of Ukraine. 320 of them have already been delivered, according to the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine.
“You are defending important facilities every day and continue to work despite the Russian strikes. I am glad to see that the first gabions, which in Japan we call "ground armour", have already arrived. These gabions have proven their high anti-explosion qualities and are used by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces Japan's position regarding the support of your country will not waver, and we will continue to support Ukraine and its people until victory and in the future,"
— Kuninori Matsuda, Japanese Ambassador to Ukraine
According to Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko, Ukraine previously received autotransformers, gas turbines, and assistance in defence structures from Japan. Japan is also a partner of Ukraine in the implementation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Peace Formula, whose important components are energy, radiation and nuclear safety.
The gabions will be distributed to all line-production departments of the Operator of the GTS of Ukraine. They will be especially important in the frontline regions.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
UK Intel – Higher education in Russia becomes increasingly militarised
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Feb. 12 Intelligence Update stated that the Institute of World Military and Economic Strategy was established at the Russian Higher School of Economics (HSE) in February. It was founded by Russian hard-line political scientist Sergei Karaganov.
Sergei Avakyants, former Commander of Russia's Pacific Fleet, will head the institute, having previously stated that Russia is in a state of long-term confrontation with the West.
The MoD claimed that the institute will deal with politics and economics but will focus on foreign nations' defence industries and studying strategic deterrence and the role of nuclear weapons.
It was suggested that the institute's staff would be drawn mainly from various HSE faculties. It would also invite researchers from various military academies, such as the Russian General Staff Academy.
"This will highly likely lead to closer interaction between Russian academia and the defence sector, boosting the militarisation of higher education," the UK MoD stated.
WORLD NEWS
US Senate wraps up Ukraine aid bill talks, final vote looms
The US Senate voted to end debate on the Ukraine aid package on Sunday despite opposition from Republican hardliners and Donald Trump, Reuters reports. The bill is now expected to face a final passage vote on Tuesday, 14 February.
The bill is expected to provide crucial $60 billion to Ukraine through military material and financial aid. Democratic President Joe Biden has urged Congress to approve this aid for months as Ukraine has been forced to ration artillery ammunition to 2,000 shells per day, a fifth of Russia’s expenditure.
The Democratic-led Senate advanced the bill in a rare Sunday session, clearing a key hurdle by a 67-27 margin and moving the bill toward an ultimate vote on passage in the coming days. 18 Republicans backed the measure after Trump criticized it, arguing the aid should be a loan instead of a loan.
While Monday is reserved for procedural Senate business, the urgency surrounding the aid may allow an earlier vote. Following Senate approval, the bill faces an uncertain future in the Republican-controlled House.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has a slim 219-212 Republican majority, has indicated that he could try to split the aid provisions into separate measures once the bill arrives from the Senate.
Russian drone fragments discovered in Moldova near Ukraine border
On 11 February, Moldova’s Border Police reported finding debris from a Russian Shahed drone near the village of Etulia in the Vulcanesti district, which borders Ukraine.
Information about the drone fragments was communicated to the authorities, and access to the crash site restricted.
Moldovan officials added there is no threat to the population, clarifying the fragments likely belong to a Russian drone downed on the night of 9-10 February by Ukraine’s air defense systems near Izmail in Odesa Oblast.
Elon Musk denies selling Starlink to Russia
As Evidence mounts to the contrary, American businessman Elon Musk stated that Starlink terminals were not sold to Russia, either directly or indirectly.
The terminals were rushed into Ukraine after Russia’s February 2022 invasion to aid communications. Musk’s satellite broadband service, which leverages thousands of low-orbit satellites, has been praised as an important tool for Ukraine’s defense.
Reports that Russian forces were using the Starlink service within Ukraine first appeared in Ukrainian media on 8 February, citing social media evidence. Prominent Russian “volunteer groups” supporting the invasion have also flaunted Starlink purchases for army units.
“Cases of the Russian occupiers’ use of the given devices have been registered. It is beginning to take on a systemic nature,” said the Ukrainian Defence Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) spokesman Andriy Yusov.
HUR also released an audio intercept of Russian soldiers discussing setting up Starlink as proof. However, it remains unclear whether terminals were captured, imported, or obtained otherwise.
Russian attack drone operators being trained in Syria
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) reported that Russian operators of Iranian-made UAVs are being trained in Syria.
Russian operators of Iranian-made UAVs are being trained in Syria. The training of the Muscovites is being conducted by the Lebanese Hezbollah Police and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (of Iran) on the territory of the Syrian military airfield Shayrat.
The Lebanese-Iranian-Russian training course involves mastering the Shahed-136 and Ababil-3 UAVs, as well as the Raad remotely piloted aircraft.
The HUR reported that the military exercises are headed by Kamal Abu Sadik, one of Hezbollah's commanders, who specialises in the manufacture and maintenance of drones.
"Along with the Russians, Syrian mercenaries, whom Moscow plans to use in the war against Ukraine as UAV operators, are also undergoing training," Defence Intelligence said.
Biden calls Trump's statements regarding threats to allies appalling and dangerous
US President Joe Biden has reacted to the statements of his predecessor Donald Trump admitting he threatened allies to "encourage" Russia to engage in aggression to force them to increase their contributions to collective security. We reported on Trump’s unhinged comments yesterday.
"Donald Trump’s admission that he intends to give Putin a greenlight for more war and violence, to continue his brutal assault against a free Ukraine, and to expand his aggression to the people of Poland and the Baltic States are appalling and dangerous," Biden said.
He also noted that such remarks are expected from a man "who is promising to rule as a dictator like the ones he praises on day one if he returns to the oval office".
Europe should create new security and defence system to complement NATO
The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola , stressed the importance of creating a new security and defence system that would complement NATO. Censor.NET reported
"The discussion of European strategic autonomy should move from the theoretical to the practical level. This concerns our competitiveness, energy supply, trade and, of course, defence. Europe needs to increase its capabilities and create a new security and defence system that will complement NATO, not compete with it," she said in a speech to the Estonian parliament.
Metsola reiterated that the European Parliament's support for Ukraine will remain unwavering, particularly in the process of integration with Europe.
Grumpy Here — This statement underlines the current opinion in Europe, and to a certain extent worldwide, of a general lack of confidence in the USA as an ally and world leader. A historic level of inaction, incompetence and dysfunction from the US government has forced other world leaders to consider a post US/NATO alliance to protect themselves from the increasing belligerence of bad actors like Russia, China and Iran.
How this will affect US relations when it attempts to exert its influence in other spheres remains to be seen, but clearly other nations are very nervous.
MILITARY & TECH
Rheinmetall begins construction of new munitions plant
Rheinmetall announced that the construction of a new plant in Germany had commenced, which will increase Germany's capacity to produce artillery shells. Rheinmetall assures that Ukraine will receive hundreds of thousands of shells this year.
The facility is being built by the defence contractor Rheinmetall in the town of Unterlüs, located between Hannover and Hamburg, where the company already has its production facilities.
The construction of the new artillery ammunition plant comes amid increased demand as allies seek to increase supplies to Ukraine and maintain their own stockpiles.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told Tagesspiegel that Germany would be able to produce 200,000 artillery shells a year after the new plant is completed.
"Ukraine will receive several hundred thousand shells from us this year alone, as well as several dozen armoured personnel carriers and tanks," he said.
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