UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-19
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 19 stated that it was day 755 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 61 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missile strikes, 70 air strikes, and 110 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 air defense system of the russian invaders.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 11 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment.
Russian forces hold 7:1 artillery advantage along frontline since start of 2024
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Havryliuk reports that Russia’s artillery advantage stands at 7:1 in 2024. Additionally, Russian aircraft have dropped over 3,500 air bombs, a 16-fold increase from the previous year.
Russia still maintains a considerable advantage in weaponry and equipment, thanks to reserves of Soviet-era arms, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk said in a recent article for Ukrinform.
Havryliuk points out that Ukraine has destroyed more than 10,600 Russian artillery systems since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but this is less than half of their reserves. He notes that Russia has evaluated the current production capabilities of Ukraine and its allies and is using its advantage in ammunition to maintain the intensity of fire. Since the start of 2024, the advantage in artillery fire along the front line has been 7:1 in favor of the Russian forces.
The Deputy Defense Minister also mentions that Russian combat aviation dominates the sky, with Russian fighters actively using guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian positions. Since the beginning of the year, Russia’s aircraft have dropped over 3,500 aerial bombs, 16 times more than in 2023.
According to Havryliuk, The long-awaited F-16s are expected to break Russia’s dominance in the air war, enhancing Ukraine’s ground capabilities.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 3 assaults in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonen’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast). The enemy, supported by aviation, made 25 attempts to break through the defence of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and south of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Czechia to launch second railway route to Ukraine
The Czech railway operator RegioJet announced that a second line to Ukraine will commence operations on 27 March. It will run through Slovakia to the town of Chop (Zakarpattia Oblast, Ukraine) and complement the existing line through the city of Przemyśl (Poland).
With a transfer in Chop, the journey from Prague to Kyiv will take approximately 22 hours, with options with sleepers or seats, as well as separate sleeper compartments for women and children.
RegioJet owner Radim Jančura said the Chop-Prague route will feature 3 cars with 140 seats, including 80 sleepers and 60 seats.
Jančura explained that RegioJet will generate revenue from transportation but will pay Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) for access to its infrastructure.
US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Kyiv.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham visited Kyiv on Mar. 18 and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy later said that they had discussed further comprehensive assistance for Ukraine. He informed Senator Graham of the frontline situation and our army's priority needs. It is critical that our partners continue to provide military and technical assistance, such as air defence systems and missiles.
They also discussed Ukraine's NATO integration, increased sanctions pressure on the aggressor state, and the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's urgent needs.
Government submits bill to parliament to increase Border Guard Service staff by 15,000
Taras Melnychuk, representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Verkhovna Rada (the parliament) of Ukraine reported that The Ukrainian government is proposing that Parliament increase the total number of servicemen in the State Border Guard Service by 15,000.
The Cabinet of Ministers has registered a draft law with the Verkhovna Rada entitled On Amending Section 9 Clause 1 in the Final Provisions of the Law of Ukraine On the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
"In today's realities, the State Border Guard Service needs to form combat units that perform tasks, including on the front line, and in the future will take control of border areas and, accordingly, perform defence tasks, which entails the need to increase the staffing of the State Border Guard Service."
— Colonel Andrii Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard Service
RUSSIAN WORLD
No Ukrainian soldiers saw Red Cross representatives while in Russian captivity
The Ukrainian Parliament Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets stated at a meeting with relatives of persons missing under special circumstances and servicemen of military units stationed in Cherkasy Oblast captured by the Russians.
"During the exchanges, we conduct a survey of those released from captivity and ask if they have seen representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross. So far, there has been not one positive response," Lubinets stated.
At the meeting, the commissioner also explained to the Ukrainian defenders' relatives that the status of missing does not imply that the person has died. He claims that missing people are frequently held captive, but the International Committee of the Red Cross cannot confirm this.
Russia loses about 600,000 barrels per day of refinery capacity due to Ukrainian strikes
Russian oil refining capacity has diminished by about 600,000 barrels per day as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Bloomberg reports.
Citing a report by Gunvor Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Torbjörn Törnqvist estimates about 600,000 barrels of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity has been knocked out by Ukrainian drone strikes.
“It is significant because obviously this is gonna hit the distillate exports straight away,” Törnqvist said during an interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday. “So that will probably take down exports by a couple of hundred thousand barrels, so to me it’s a distillate problem.”
WORLD NEWS
Ukrainian insider suggests Russia’s precision strikes rely on US satellite imagery
The Atlantic reports that a Ukrainian military source, who requested anonymity, believes Russia’s costly long-range cruise missile strikes are guided using satellite imagery from US companies. The source outlined a pattern where a site is photographed by a satellite, followed by a missile strike days or weeks later, and sometimes additional satellite images are taken afterward to assess the damage. The source noted the high number of such coincidences suggests this is not random.
The accumulation of suspicious cases suggests that some long-range strikes in Ukraine may be guided by satellite imagery from US companies. For instance, in the week before 2 April 2022, American firms received at least nine requests for images of a remote airfield outside Myrhorod, which was later targeted by missiles. Similarly, satellite imaging of a military armour factory in Lviv preceded a strike just before 26 March 2022. Additionally, fresh images of Kyiv were commissioned shortly before the city faced a missile barrage in late January of this year. These patterns raise concerns about the potential misuse of commercial satellite imagery in conflict zones.
Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Kateryna Chernohorenko, noted that US satellite companies have supported Ukraine, but her ministry’s experts suspect that Russia “purchases satellite imagery through third-party companies” that do business with Western satellite-imagery companies and that these images “could be used in armed aggression against Ukraine.”
Bundestag to initiate investigation into leak of discussion on Taurus supply to Ukraine
German media revealed some details about the potential transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine discussed at the meeting of the German Bundestag, which may result in an investigation into the leak of secret information. Rheinische Post reports.
Some 105 people attended the Mar. 15 classified briefing both elected officials and government representatives now a letter has been sent from the head of the defence committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, to the president of the Bundestag, Bärbel Bas. Asking them to “provide permission for criminal proceedings in accordance with section 353 b (4) of the Criminal Code."
Grumpy here - This is the second embarrassing security gaffe for the Scholz government in regards to their refusal to comply with Ukraine’s request for Taurus. The first being a leaked recording of German military officials refuting Scholz’s reasoning as to why he refused Ukraine’s request.
Lindsey Graham wants the US to recognise Russia as state sponsor of terrorism
US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, during his visit to Ukraine on Mar. 15 stated he will ask President Joe Biden's administration to recognise Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
"I will ask the Biden administration to recognise Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism under US law. The introduction of a state sponsor of terrorism designation under US law will make secondary sanctions against (companies that help Russia from) China, India, etc. meaningful," Graham said
EU plans to impose duties on grain imports from Russia and Belarus
The Financial Times reported that the European Union is planning to impose duties on imports of Russian and Belarusian grain to reassure farmers and some member states. This will be the first restriction on food products from Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Sources familiar with the plans say that in the coming days, the European Commission will announce a €95 per tonne duty on grain from Russia and Belarus.
Tariffs of 50% will also be imposed on oilseeds and their derived products. The sources report that this will lead to a price increase of at least 50%, which will destroy demand.
In 2023, imports from Russia of grains, oilseeds and their derivatives reached a record 4 million tonnes.
MILITARY & TECH
Poland and Germany to launch armoured vehicles coalition for Ukraine in late March
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Polish Defence Minister, after talks near Warsaw with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius TVP World reports.
“On March 26, we are activating as co-leaders, Poland and Germany, the armour capability coalition for support of Ukraine,” the Polish minister told a joint press conference with Pistorius.
“It is one of the most important coalitions that have been established; we are the two leading countries of this project, other partners have signed up for it, such as Great Britain, Sweden, and Italy,” he said.
Further details will be released on the 26th.
Europe will be able to produce necessary amount of ammunition
Czech President Petr Pavel has said that in the near future, European companies will be able to produce the necessary amount of ammunition for themselves and Ukraine. Radio Liberty reported.
"The production of the required number of shells takes time. This requires an increase in our production capacity. But Ukraine needs shells now. We can't wait for European companies, so we are trying to find ammunition wherever we can. We are trying to deliver it to Ukraine as quickly as possible. But at the same time, we are increasing our own capacity. In the near future, European companies will be able to produce the necessary amount of ammunition to replenish the stockpiles of European countries, as well as to provide Ukraine with ammunition if it still needs it."
Petr Pavel — President of the Czech Republic
Germany announces new €500 million military assistance package for Ukraine
Germany has prepared a new package of military assistance for Ukraine worth approximately €500 million. Tagesschau reports.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius at the Contact Group for the Defence of Ukraine meeting, the package consists primarily of additional ammunition supplies – 10,000 artillery shells from Bundeswehr warehouses.
The new aid package will also include 100 armoured infantry vehicles and 100 transportation vehicles.
US Secretary of Defenсe Lloyd Austin, opening the Ramstein meeting on Tuesday, promised that the United States will continue to support Ukraine's military efforts against Russia.
50 Ukrainian pilots to train on F-16 jets in Romania
Romanian President has approved the transit of equipment donated by Finland to Ukraine and the training of 50 Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets at the Fetești military base, with training expected to end by the year’s end. Digi24 reports.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis informed the Parliament in a letter that he approved the transit of equipment and material goods donated by Finland to Ukraine and the training of about 50 Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, with the training to take place at the Fetești military base in southern Romania, according to Digi24.
Ukraine seeks F-16 fighter jets to counter Russia’s air superiority at the frontline, where Russian aircraft maintain an edge with longer-range capabilities despite Ukraine’s dense air defences. The United States approved the transfer of F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands last August, pending completion of pilot training. Training of Ukrainian pilots and ground personnel is ongoing, and Ukraine has yet to operate any F-16s.
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