UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-25
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 25 stated that it was day 732 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 84 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 9 missile strikes, 77 air strikes, and 119 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 13 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks near Lastochkyne, Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke(Donetsk oblast).
Russia captures the village of Lastochkyne west of Avdiivka
The village of Lastochkyne west of Avdiivka, previously controlled by Ukrainian forces, has been occupied by Russian troops, reports analysts from the DeepState project. The information was confirmed by Stanislav Bunyatov, call sign “Osman,” from the 24th Separate Assault Brigade “Aidar,” and Russian propaganda resources.
This is happening amid an ongoing Russian offensive in the Avdiivka direction. On 17 February 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced the withdrawal of units from Avdiivka. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia’s losses there are seven times higher than Ukraine’s. On 19 February, Commander of the Tavria operational group, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, assured that the Ukrainian military has started digging in at new defence lines.
According to Ukrainian military experts, the new defence line is near a small Vovcha river, 5-10 kilometres west of Avdiivka. Currently, the fighting continues for five villages between the river and Avdiivka.
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 39 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack south of Zolota-Nyva, (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine’s Army of Drones
According to open data and official statements, Ukraine’s state project, Army of Drones, domestic industry, and volunteers now provide hundreds of drones to the army daily, which means thousands every month and dozens if not hundreds of thousands per year. Euromaidan reports.
While precise data is classified, the variety of drones includes small reconnaissance FPV drones, kamikaze drones, and so-called heavy drone bombers, mainly Ukrainian-produced, such as R-18 or the formidable Baba Yaga
Domestic drone production has started gradually replacing drone imports, but this is still not enough in some categories, given the scope and intensity of warfare Ukrainian production can be far behind Russian.
Russians bombard Kostiantynivka, destroying train station, church and houses
The Russian army launched a large-scale attack on Kostiantynivka with S-300 missiles, destroying many buildings, including a train station and a church, on the night of Feb. 24-25. Donetsk Oblast Police reported.
A 75 year old woman was injured in her home at the time of the bombardment. A railway station, a church, 2 private houses and 12 apartment buildings, 21 shops, 19 trade pavilions, 3 educational institutions, 2 administrative buildings, a post office, and a kiosk were all destroyed.
Ukraine to use income from frozen Russian assets in 2024
Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated at the Ukraine Year 2024 forum that Ukraine intends to access income from frozen Russian assets.
The Russian Federation's frozen assets abroad total more than US$300 billion. Ukraine has been unable to receive any of these funds for the past two years because Western countries where these funds are blocked face difficulties in confiscating them.
Some UK bankers and lawyers, for example, have warned that high-profile asset seizures risk undermining London's reputation as an international financial centre and raising concerns about the rule of law.
To avoid problems that may arise with the transfer of Russian money in favour of Ukraine, alternative proposals are being developed; so far, there have been two:
Bonds are issued using funds as collateral.
The scenario that has gained popularity among EU banks is to separate the interest accrued on seized assets and transfer it to Ukraine, while keeping the assets intact.
The latter is deemed the most acceptable. International banks, seeking to avoid legal ramifications, urge the UK to establish certain legal principles before transferring frozen Russian funds to Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy names AFU casualties
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced at the forum "Ukraine. Year 2024" of Feb. 25 that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had had Around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed as a result of the war Russia’s war against Ukraine since the beginning of the full scale invasion.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia is currently mobilising new forces at the rate equivalent to losses
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Feb. 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that It is unclear for how long Russia would be able to sustain offensive operations in the same way, ISW notes. In particular, it is estimated that Russia has lost over 15,000 troops killed in action during their operation to seize the city of Avdiivka. Still, Russia doesn’t consider these losses if the territorial gains are completed. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently met with Russian Central Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev to discuss the Russian capture of Avdiivka, portraying it as a huge success.
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russia is currently losing nearly 900 troops on average every day. According to Ukraine’s military bloggers, Russia is mobilising roughly 1000 troops per day on average.
“A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that Russian sentiments about the war in Ukraine have largely remained unchanged in recent months, but notably suggests that another mobilisation wave would be widely unpopular,” ISW also notes.
Russian military leadership tries to avoid blame for war crimes
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Feb. 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that senior Russian military officials likely are attempting to deflect responsibility for high-profile apparent Russian war crimes away from themselves and onto mid- and low-level Russian commanders.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published footage of Russian Central Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev reporting to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russian forces captured about 200 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Avdiivka. Shoigu emphasised the need for Russian forces to treat POWs humanely “as [Russian forces] have always done” to Mordvichev and other Russian officers. Shoigu, like Russian President Vladimir Putin, is likely concerned about international repercussions for his subordinates’ actions regarding apparent Russian war crimes and may have explicitly addressed Ukrainian POWs given recent international attention on Russian atrocities in Ukraine.
WORLD NEWS
Ukraine signs security deals with Italy, Canada to boost defences against Russia
Ukraine has signed significant bilateral security agreements with Italy and Canada, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Saturday, marking nearly a year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country. Euromaidan reports.
Both agreements are valid for 10 years and establish a mechanism for a 24-hour emergency response in the event of renewed military aggression against Ukraine, and include guarantees of ongoing military assistance to Ukraine as it struggles to fend off the Russian invasion.
The agreements are bilateral, meaning that Ukraine will also respond in case of a threat to Canada or Italy.
"Today we concluded bilateral security agreements with Italy and Canada. That is, on the day of the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we once again prove that, despite all the difficulties and challenges, the country will only become stronger and will always be together with its partners in the free world," Zelenskyy said.
The accords with Italy and Canada follow earlier security partnerships between Ukraine and the UK, Germany, France, and Denmark over the past month.
Lithuanians raise over €8.2 million to send crucial equipment for Ukrainian troops
A Lithuanian fundraising effort called “Radarom!” has gathered over €8.2 million to purchase equipment for Ukrainian forces fighting Russia’s invasion, the LRT reported.
The four-week campaign concluded with a charity concert on 24 February 2024, on the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine. Lithuanian citizens, companies, and organisations donated the funds.
The money will pay for 1,115 kits to support Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines. Each kit costing €7,500 contains a night vision device, a laser sight, and an individual anti-drone system to better protect against Russian aggressors.
The gear is being produced domestically in Lithuania by tech companies Brolis Semiconductors and NT Service. It follows a similar campaign last year that raised over €14 million for 17 tactical radars and other military aid sent to Ukraine.
Lithuania’s “Radarom!” drive highlights the Baltic state’s staunch support for Ukraine. Earlier this month, Lithuania donated ammunition and winter apparel to Ukrainian forces as they gear up for the expected next Russian offensives.
G7 leaders commit to provide Ukraine with sufficient financial assistance in 2024
Leaders of the Group of Seven have committed to helping Ukraine in meeting its "urgent financing needs" and to participate in its post-war recovery following an online summit on Feb. 24
The G7 leaders emphasise that Russia "must not succeed in wrecking Ukraine’s economy to make up for its failures on the battlefield".
"We will help Ukraine meet its urgent financing needs, and assist other vulnerable countries severely affected by the impacts of Russia’s war," they noted.
In this regard, the G7 leaders welcomed the approval by the European Union of a four-year EUR 50 billion macro-financial support programme for Ukraine, as well as the imminent provision of budget support by Japan in the first quarter of 2024 and the new funding announced by Canada.
"We urge the approval of additional support to close Ukraine’s remaining budget gap for 2024," the G7 leaders added.
In addition, the G7 reiterated its commitment to Ukraine's reconstruction; they will continue to work with key donors, and will hold new reconstruction conferences in Berlin in 2024 and Rome in 2025.
Europe’s East Is Losing Faith in Its West Over Arming Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron addressed a security conference in the Slovak capital Bratislava less than a year ago with an apology to Eastern Europe: “We did not always hear the voices you brought,” he said. “That time is over.”
Yet a row over how to replenish Ukraine’s critically low stocks of artillery shells — and where those supplies should be procured — is turning into a deeper rift in Europe, with east blaming west for failing to listen. Bloomberg reported.
The mood in diplomatic circles is that should Russia ultimately win its war in Ukraine, Western Europe will not be forgiven and the whole European integration project since the fall of the Berlin Wall could be jeopardised as that rift becomes an indelible scar.
Governments in the west don’t understand that many in the east would never trust them again, one top European official said, declining to be identified when discussing politics and security.
European Union nations have debated for months whether to buy weapons from outside the 27-member bloc as it fails to meet commitments to provide Ukraine with 1 million artillery rounds by next month.
At the same time, some eastern countries that have been raising the alarm over Russia for years are concerned that bigger, richer western states aren’t digging into their own military stocks enough. They are also preventing Ukraine from getting capabilities such as longer-range firepower. Ukraine needs support now, they say, not in 2027 when the industry is scaled up.
MILITARY & TECH
German Helsing GmbH to help Ukraine add AI to domestically-produced drones
Ukraine’s Ministry of Strategic Industries and a German defence company, Helsing GmbH, signed a memorandum of understanding on security and defence cooperation on Feb. 24.
Ukraine has agreed with German tech firm Helsing GmbH to incorporate artificial intelligence into Ukrainian-made drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The agreement resulted from multiple conferences over the past year aimed at establishing joint weapons manufacturing partnerships between Ukraine and other nations. The agreement was signed by Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, and Helsing CEO Gundbert Scherf.
Helsing GmbH specialises in integrating artificial intelligence into defence technologies. It partners with prominent German arms company Rheinmetall and works closely with Germany’s Federal Defense Ministry.
Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office of Ukraine, stated: “Artificial intelligence in UAVs on the battlefield is the reality of war in 2024. There will be AI in Ukrainian drone production… This memorandum has a specific goal – strengthening Ukrainian defence technology, introducing AI into UAVs of our production.”
Yermak added that Ukraine is “actively working with European countries, looking for partners, developing and arming ourselves.”
By adding advanced AI and autonomous capabilities to Ukraine’s expanding drone arsenal and other weaponry, the deal with Helsing will bolster Ukraine’s technological edge as the war continues. Ukrainian forces plan to unveil more defence innovations and surprises for Russia in 2024.
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