UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-27
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 27 stated that it was day 703 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 98 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 8 missile strikes, 4 air strikes, and 78 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia's latest gains in Ukraine are "strategically insignificant"
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 27 Intelligence Update on Twitter stated that Russia's statements about the seizure of the village of Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast and the village of Vesele near Bakhmut "are strategically insignificant".
"Vesele had a pre-war population of 102 and Krokhmalne, 45. This represents a continuation of Russia’s minor incremental gains whilst Ukraine focuses on active defence."
The UK Ministry of Defence stressed that the main goal of Russian troops remained the capture of the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, and they are waging an offensive from three fronts to surround the town from the south, north and east.
"Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions."
The UK Ministry of Defence said that the main goal of Russian troops remained the capture of the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, and they are waging an offensive from three fronts to surround the town from the south, north and east.
"Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions."
UK intelligence believes that despite an attempt to infiltrate the rear of Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka through tunnels, Ukrainian counterattacks are holding back Russian forces from advancing further within the city.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 attacks of the enemy near the settlement of Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 8 attacks near Terny and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 11 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andrviika (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 9 near Vodyane, Opytne, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 14 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack south of Zolota-Nyva, (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 attacks north of Pryyutne, south of Chervone and west of Verbove and Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy Evening Address: Ukraine has managed to maintain international attention
The President of Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening address on Jan. 27 stated that despite the different challenges and many difficulties, Ukraine managed to maintain international attention to the Ukrainian battle for independence.
“ We have an ambitious security agreement with the UK signed this month. This is now actually a baseline – for what to be equal to when working with other partners. And such negotiations on new security agreements – and not only with the states in Europe – on bilateral documents for the implementation of the security declaration “Group of Seven”
He added that he is confident that there will soon be new results on security guarantees for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy also noted that in January, teams from Ukraine and Poland reloaded relations.
“And we have a good understanding of each other, we have clear guidelines – which is important for our societies, for our security interests. And by the way, Poland has joined the security declaration “ Groups of seven”, a total of 32 countries are already working with us in this area ”
Also, according to him, there is a good result in relations with the European Union: a meaningful preparation for the beginning of negotiations – the process of screening Ukrainian legislation has begun.
“This is a formal assessment of Ukrainian legal acts for compliance with EU law. There is already an understanding of the schedule of meetings, all the next necessary steps. And it is important that the government team of Ukraine is sufficiently mobilised for this work: Ukraine is interested in the maximum results in relations with Europe this year, which are only possible”
The President also thanked Switzerland for its productive talks during the visit, as well as for the effective organisation of the meeting of advisers on the Formula of Peace.
“ There is also an agreement on the organisation of the first Peace Summit at the level of leaders in Switzerland. Very active contacts on this continue. Really strong story – we are preparing it”
Speaking about defence packages for Ukraine, Zelensky noted the good dynamics for the month.
“ Of course, we need more to achieve control in the sky and greater opportunities on earth, especially artillery. But, no matter how difficult it is for us, we have the supply of artillery, missiles and ammunition for air defense. I thank every country that supports our soldiers, the protection of Ukrainian lives. Hundreds of Russian rockets and drones have been shot down this month. And we continue to work with partners. We are waiting for the appropriate decision of the United States of America – it is critical”,
He also thanked each country that announced new support packages at a recent meeting in the format “Ramstein”. Zelensky noted that these are nine support packages and, in particular, some scarce things for the Ukrainian defence.
According to him, in February, more agreements are being prepared with partners.
Separately, the president noted the results of communication with partners on Russian assets.
“ This month we have come close to the solution we need, which will be fair. All Russian assets – assets of the terrorist state itself and related persons, – which are in different jurisdictions and frozen, must work to protect against Russian aggression. They must be confiscated. And we are doing everything we can to make this decision meaningful in the near future ”,
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian oil refinery in Tuapse stops operation due to Ukrainian drone attack
The Tuapse oil refinery, which belongs to Rosneft, a major Russian oil and gas company, has stopped refining oil and producing petroleum products due to the attack by Ukrainian drones on Jan. 25. Reuters reported.
The Tuapse refinery is the only one on the Black Sea coast of Russia, one of the ten largest in the country and processes up to nine million tonnes of raw materials annually.
Reuters’ sources noted that the refinery was stopped after a fire broke out on 25 January because of a Ukrainian drone strike.
The drone attack, which also made the Russian authorities close the Sochi airport and issue air-raid warnings in their settlements, burned down a vacuum unit.
Russian sources said that the plant would not be able to resume production quickly: repairs are expected to last until late February or early March.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
EU considers invoking the “nuclear option” if Hungary blocks Ukrainian funds
There’s a Hungarian saying for when things are not going well: “It is under the frog’s ass.”
And things sure won’t go well for Hungary if it attempts to thwart European leaders when they meet next week to approve a vital €50 billion lifeline to Ukraine as it enters a third year of war with Russia, Politico reports.
After years of a softly-softly approach with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, this time European diplomats are giving signals that the “nuclear option” — kicking Budapest out of the EU voting process — is no longer unthinkable if he imperils the security of Ukraine, an EU candidate country.
If the EU were to use its so-called Article 7 — the most serious political sanction on a member country that involves suspending its right to vote on EU decisions — Orb´án really would be well and truly under the frog’s ass.
Five European officials and diplomats said other countries in the bloc are ready to make a move against Budapest in what would be a historic move for leaders who rely on cohesion and unanimity.
“If Orbán really blocks again an agreement [on the budget and the €50 billion for Ukraine] at the February summit, using Article 7 to strip Hungary of its voting rights could become a real option,” said one EU diplomat.
Next week’s vote on aid to Ukraine is essential both for Ukraine and the EU’s messaging to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine has the unanimous backing of Western allies. In December, Orbán blocked the EU’s effort to send aid to Ukraine, in a mark of support to Putin. Orbán said then he would be willing to unblock his veto only if the EU unblocked its own frozen aid to Hungary for its rule-of-law violations.
French Defence Ministry addresses Russian disinformation on alleged death of "French mercenaries" in Kharkiv
The French Ministry of Defence has responded to the publication of Russian disinformation claiming the supposed death of "French mercenaries" due to a strike on Kharkiv, stating that this was a coordinated misinformation campaign.
French authorities stated that Russia has long been engaging in disinformation activities against France, and after Paris's recent assurances that support for Ukraine will continue, this wave of disinformation has intensified.
"The relevant state services have, on the other hand, identified and are monitoring Russia’s coordinated manoeuvre, including pro-Russian news networks and state media such as Sputnik, RT and RIA Novosti, to relay and amplify this false information," the ministry stated.
The reaction from Paris was triggered, in part, by Moscow's statement on 17 January claiming that a missile strike on Kharkiv targeted a supposed temporary location of "French mercenaries," with 60 allegedly killed and 20 wounded. Following this, Russian Telegram channels began circulating supposed lists of the deceased.
Subsequently, a claim appeared that Russia had supposedly destroyed a Franco-Italian SAMP-T system supplied to Ukraine. The French Defence Ministry noted that some of these "lists of deceased mercenaries" had already been circulated in the early weeks of the full-scale war.
"France confirms none of these reports... France is once again the target of a crude Russian disinformation campaign. Unlike others, France does not use mercenaries," said French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
In a comment to AFP, one informed diplomat stated that while many foreign volunteers have indeed joined the Ukrainian International Legion, and some French individuals in the list circulated by Russians are likely members of the legion, many other names are clearly false.
ISW - Any ceasefire would benefit only Russia
The Institute for the Study of War in its Jan. 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that The Kremlin and US officials rejected rumors about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations amid continued indications from the Kremlin that Russia seeks nothing less than full Ukrainian and Western capitulation.
Bloomberg reported on January 25 that two unspecified sources close to the Kremlin stated that Putin signaled to senior US officials through indirect channels that Putin is open to negotiations, including those that would provide “security arrangements” for Ukraine. Allegedly an unidentified intermediary “conveyed signals” to US officials in December 2023 that Putin may be willing to drop his insistence on Ukraine’s “neutral status” and even may ultimately abandon his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO accession. This report may refer to the same supposed backchannel communications reported by the New York Times in late December 2023 about Putin’s supposed interest in a ceasefire.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denied Bloomberg’s report on Jan. 26, stating that reports about Russian readiness to give up its demands that Ukraine not join NATO are ”incorrect“ and “untrue.“
US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson stated that US officials are not aware of these alleged overtures, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on Jan. 19 that he does not see any indication that Putin is serious about looking for a way to end the fighting in Ukraine.
Putin and Kremlin officials have increasingly stressed in recent weeks that Russia has no interest in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith, that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine remain the same, and that Putin continues to pursue his overarching objective to weaken and dismantle NATO.
Former White House Official Fiona Hill told Bloomberg on January 26 that Russian actors want the West to create the idea of such a channel in order to scare Ukraine and frame the US as the only other relevant actor in Ukraine besides Russia.
Kremlin officials routinely frame the Russian war in Ukraine as a struggle against the West in order to deny Ukraine’s agency in potential negotiations and to set conditions that seek to convince the West to ignore centering Ukraine’s interests in any negotiations.
Russian demands for Ukrainian “neutrality” and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and continue to be one of Putin’s central justifications for his invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession on these demands would represent a major strategic and rhetorical retreat on Putin’s behalf that Putin is extremely unlikely to be considering at this time.
Russia grows increasingly confident in undermining West as support for Putin surges
The Washington Post, citing Kremlin documents and interviews with Russian officials and business leaders reports that Russia is increasingly confident that deepening economic and diplomatic ties with China and the Global South will allow it to challenge the international financial system dominated by the United States and undermine the West, according to Kremlin documents and interviews with Russian officials and business executives.
"Russia has been buoyed by its success in holding off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive followed by political stalemates in Washington and Brussels over continued funding for Kyiv. The Post writes
Officials in Moscow point to the growing trade volumes with China, military cooperation with Iran, diplomatic activities in the Arab world, and the expansion of the BRICS organisation, which unites the largest developing economies.
Internal documents from the Russian Security Council, obtained by European intelligence services and analysed by The Washington Post, reveal that in 2022 and 2023, the Kremlin convened meetings to discuss ways to undermine the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. The ultimate goal, as one of the documents indicates, was the dismantling of the global financial system established after the Second World War and the power it granted to Washington.
At the same time, the belief that Russia has proven to be more resilient militarily and economically than the West anticipated has strengthened Putin's position within the country on the eve of the presidential elections in March. This is particularly true among certain representatives of the Russian elite who had long been sceptical of the war in Ukraine and were initially concerned about the impact of Western sanctions, as the publication reports.
European security officials say that Moscow is the junior partner to Beijing, and it remains unclear whether China has a genuine interest in aligning with the grand plans of the Kremlin. However, Russia is increasingly focused on leveraging its global position to undermine the West, particularly in the Middle East.
A Russian official told the publication that "through Iran, it is possible [for Moscow] to make this [Middle East] situation so acute that attention can be further distracted from Ukraine." "Russia still has a big negative potential," he said. "There are a lot of hot spots that Russia can interfere in."
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian Railways plan to protect infrastructure with drones
Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) press service reports that it is creating a unit that will use drones to monitor and protect the railway infrastructure. The unit will include railway veterans injured and returning from the contact line.
"This initiative will help ensure the protection of railway facilities as well as provide an opportunity for veterans to apply their military experience and skills in civilian work," the company stressed.
Ukrainian Railways has signed a memorandum with the Kruk UAV operator training centre. Training, in particular, will be conducted through an online platform for veterans created by Kruk and the Renaissance Foundation.
Instructors at the centre will be engaged in retraining railway veterans. They will train employees to pilot drones and teach them engineering training, including the assembly and maintenance of drones.
"UAVs will be used to combat theft of Ukrzaliznytsia's property at stations and stages, record offences, detect fuel theft from locomotives, inspect infrastructure during martial law, and participate in the investigation of traffic accidents," Ukrainian Railways explained.
Supply of F-16s from Denmark going according to plan
Interfax reported in reference to a joint press conference of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Danish counterpart Lars Løkke Rasmussen in Mykolaiv, that they stated there is no threat of disruption of the programme to transfer F-16 fighter jets from Denmark to Ukraine.
"I thank Lars for his assurances that Denmark’s preparations for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets are going according to plan. So far, there is no threat of this programme being disrupted," Kuleba said.
He added that this means that Denmark is keeping its word, and the F-16 fighters that Copenhagen promised Kyiv will be the first ones to be delivered to Ukraine.
Kuleba called the move to provide F-16s to Kyiv a historic one and said that "everything is going according to plan."
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