UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-14
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukraine keeps Avdiivka front “stable” as Russia claims new attacks
Facing heavy losses, the Russian command shifts its narrative, saying that “taking the city may not be their primary goal.” according to Frontline Report
On Dec. 12, some Russian sources claimed that Russians finally resumed ground operations and penetrated the Ukrainian defence west of the industrial zone by hundreds of metres. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainians were caught by surprise and had to retreat along Kolosova Street. There is no evidence that such an advance took place.
The entire Avdiivka front line has finally stabilised over the last month, especially along the southern line, where Russians have not generated any gains over the last 7 weeks.
That is why the Russian High Command continues to characterise Russian offensive efforts in Avdiivka as “active defence”. The confidence of the Russian Command in their ability to take Avdiivka was low from the very beginning, so to temper expectations, they called it active defence. Even though Ukrainian forces have never conducted offensive operations at scale in the Avdiivka area since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Several days ago, some prominent Russian sources started claiming that the Avdiivka offensive was just a decoy and that taking it was not the main Russian goal. This is not surprising because out of the allocated 40 thousand troops as reserves for the Avdiivka offensive, approximately 13 thousand of them are already dead or wounded.
Claim that Russians have captured Marinka is false
Tavriia Group commander Tarnavskyi stated The Russians are assembling forces in the Marinka area in preparation for future assaults and are claiming that they have captured the whole city.
"The containment of the enemy continues in the areas of Novomykailivka and Krasnohorivka – 11 attacks have been repelled. In the Marinka area, the enemy is amassing forces for further assaults. They continue to spread disinformation and provocations about the alleged complete capture of the city. The defence of Marinka continues."
— Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
British Intel: Russian soldiers suffer heavy losses in combat near Krynky, east bank of Dnipro river
The UK Ministry of Defence Dec. 14 intelligence update states that Russia’s newly formed 104th Guards Airborne Division likely endured “exceptionally heavy losses” and failed to meet its objectives.
The engagement occurred after the division joined Russia’s Dnipro Group of Forces in an attempt to dislodge Ukrainian forces from a bridgehead near the village of Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
In the aftermath of this operation, Russian ‘milbloggers’ have been vocal in their criticism, calling for the resignation of Dnipro Group of Forces Commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.
According to British intel, this marks a blow to Teplinsky’s reputation as one of Russia’s more capable field commanders. In his routine role, he also serves as the commanding general of the VDV.
Recently the UK intel reported that the fighting in Krynky on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast represents a setback for Russian strategy after their withdrawal from the western bank last year. It also underscored unexpected engagement intensity despite the fighting’s smaller scale than elsewhere on the front. This persistent combat reflects a significant deviation from Russia’s intended military posture, aimed at consolidating forces and maintaining tranquillity in the sector, the report said.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
THE HOME FRONT
Prime Minister reports on new reforms Ukraine is preparing
Prime Minister Shmyhal at the opening of the regular ministerial-level meeting of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that the Ukrainian government is preparing a matrix of reforms which will encompass all areas from economy and digitalisation to the rule of law and education.
"We have set ourselves ambitious goals, including Ukraine’s membership of the European Union and the OECD in the coming years.
With the help of our partners, we are preparing a reform matrix – comprehensive analytical data on all the reform commitments that Ukraine has undertaken. This is a clear roadmap that will bring together the key reforms of the Ukrainian Government and will also include recommendations and proposals from our international partners.
Anti-corruption initiatives will play a very important role. Our focus is not only on putting corrupt officials in jail, but first and foremost on creating a system in which there is no possibility of corruption. This will be possible thanks to the digitalisation of public services, deregulation of business, and a reduced role of the state in the economy,"
— Denys Shmyhal, Prime Minister of Ukraine
Shmyhal said that Ukraine is guided by the IMF benchmarks, recommendations of the European Commission, developments with the World Bank and the OECD, and the reform plan currently being developed within the EU’s four-year Ukraine Facility initiative.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
US Treasury: Russia’s economy under “considerable strain” due to its war in Ukraine
Country’s GDP would be more than 5% bigger if Moscow had not invaded its neighbour, the US Treasury department finds. Writes the Financial Times
Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is damaging Russia’s economy, driving up domestic consumer prices and forcing Moscow to spend a third of its budget on defence, the US Treasury department has said.
Rachel Lyngaas, the department’s chief sanctions economist, said the combination of war, US allies’ sanctions and Moscow’s policy response was “putting Russia’s economy under considerable economic strain”.
The comments appeared in a draft text, seen by the Financial Times, of one of the most comprehensive assessments of the financial consequences for Russia of the president’s decision to send troops into Ukraine.
Russia’s invasion and occupation of parts of Ukraine were now “contributing to rapidly growing expenditures, a depreciating rouble, increasing inflation, and a tight labour market reflecting a loss of workers” in its economy, Lyngaas wrote.
Moscow was spending more than $100bn on defence, or almost a third of its total planned expenditures in 2023, according to the Treasury department. The huge outlay comes at the same time as the Kremlin has paused some planned public salary increases despite inflation running at 7.5 per cent — far above the central bank’s target of 4 per cent.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy give details of face to face with Orban
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a press conference with participants of the Nordic Summit, said that during a conversation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, he asked him to name just one reason why Ukraine should not be in the EU. Zelenskyy said he was waiting for Orbán's response.
"I can't say that it was a particularly or deliberately planned meeting. We had a dialogue. That’s true.I think we need to organise a constructive meeting between our countries because we have common borders, we are neighbours, and we need to talk.
One very important topic that I raised with him was that we need to talk, we need to solve problems. That's why we just need to meet. I’ve shown him that I have a positive attitude to this idea.
Second. I think I am right [in saying this] and I made it clear to him that he has no reason to block Ukraine's membership of the European Union. I asked him to give me just one reason. Not three, not five, not ten, just one reason, and I'm waiting for an answer."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
European Parliament condemns Orbán and urges EU to approve opening of membership talks with Ukraine
The European Parliament has called on the EU summit to approve the decision to start EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and condemned remarks made by the Hungarian Prime Minister about Ukraine's membership.
In a non-binding resolution of the parliament adopted on 13 December, approved by 468 votes in favour and 9 against. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) called on EU leaders to adopt a decision at their summit on 14-15 December to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, as well as with Bosnia and Herzegovina, contingent upon the implementation of certain reforms.
It is interesting to note that less than half of Hungary’s 21 MEPs voted against the resolution.
Don’t give in to Orbán’s blackmail over frozen billions, warn EU party leaders
The heads of Europe’s largest political groups are ready to warn Brussels: Don’t give Hungary billions of euros in frozen funds until the country completely resolves its rule-of-law problems. Politico reports.
“We would like to express our deep concern as regards the imminent positive assessment of the Hungarian judicial reforms,” reads a draft letter obtained by POLITICO and due to be signed by the heads of the European People’s Party, the Socialists and Democrats, Renew Europe and the Greens. While the letter has not yet been published, people directly aware of the letter at all four parties confirmed their leaders had signed or planned to sign it.
According to senior EU officials, the European Commission plans to unblock €10 billion in frozen funds for Hungary ahead of a key gathering of leaders this week where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is threatening to block a major package of European financial aid for Ukraine, as well as the opening of accession talks to the bloc for Kyiv.
“In our view, the horizontal enabling conditions have not been fulfilled,” it goes on, referring to the conditions laid out by the European Commission for the funds to be released, which include far-reaching judicial reforms.
EU officials argue Budapest has fulfilled the rule-of-law requirements and that the funds’ release is unrelated to Orbán’s threat.
But on Tuesday, the Hungarian leader’s political director appeared to link Hungary’s stance to the frozen funds, saying that Budapest would continue to block further aid for Ukraine unless the Commission releases all the money it has blocked.
Republican Senators Say They’re Weighing Biden’s Immigration Offer
President Joe Biden has offered changes to US border policy that raises the prospects of a bipartisan deal on immigration and aid to Ukraine, Republican senators said Wednesday. Bloomberg reports.
Republicans met behind closed doors to evaluate the verbal offer, which emerged after Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas met with senators for nearly two hours Tuesday evening.
“Now that the White house has gotten involved, the logjam has broken a little bit,” Ohio Republican JD Vance said after a briefing on the proposal. Still, he said, a final deal wouldn’t be ready “anytime soon.”
But the top GOP negotiator, Senator James Lankford, said there is nothing yet on paper from the White House.
Tillis and top Democratic negotiator Chris Murphy said Congress should stay in session until they strike a deal, although the House and Senate are currently set to leave Thursday.
Zelenskyy and Poland's new PM conduct first phone conversation
President Zelenskyy, and Donald Tusk, the new Prime Minister of Poland, have held their first telephone conversation.
The President reported that he had congratulated Tusk on his appointment and "the beginning of a new chapter" in bilateral relations between Ukraine and Poland.
"As the European Council summit approaches, we discussed its upcoming decisions that will bring the entire European community together. I heard words of genuine support. We are stronger when we are together – Ukraine and Poland. I am confident that, with the new government in Poland, we will expedite the resolution of all outstanding issues in our relations in a mutually beneficial manner."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
EU to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova
European leaders have decided to open EU membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova and to grant candidate status to Georgia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the decision, made at a summit in Brussels, as "a victory" for his country and Europe. BBC reports.
A spokesperson for Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, said that agreement was unanimous.
Hungary has long opposed talks starting with Kyiv, but did not veto the move.
However, Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted a blunt message on Facebook, distancing himself from the other 26 EU leaders: "EU membership of Ukraine is a bad decision. Hungary does not want to participate in this bad decision, and therefore stayed away from the decision today."
Mr Zelensky was delighted by the EU's announcement: "This is a victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe. A victory that motivates, inspires and strengthens,"
MILITARY & TECH
Second German Patriot system to start operating in Ukraine before the end of the year
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said during a speech in the Bundestag that the second Patriot air defence system, which Germany promised to transfer to Kyiv, will start operating in Ukraine before the end of this year.
Scholz also noted that armoured vehicles, ammunition and winter protective clothing will be provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as power generators to overcome the electricity shortage.
"All this is extremely necessary. Because Russia has now completely put its economy at the service of this war. Russian arms production is working at full capacity,"
— Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
First conference to strengthen Ukraine's air defence held in Berlin
The press service of the German Ministry of Defence on 13 December reported that Ukraine's partners have held the first conference focused on strengthening Ukraine’s air defence in Berlin.
The first inaugural conference was held in Berlin on 12 and 13 December, bringing together about 70 participants from 22 countries, as well as representatives of the EU and NATO.
The aim of the CCIAMD is to coordinate the development of NATO-compatible air defence systems in Ukraine.
The first meeting focused primarily on establishing a common understanding of how support to Ukraine can be organised and implemented. In addition, the first steps were jointly developed in working groups.
Command Structure, led by France
Systems, led by the United States
Training/exercises, led by Germany.
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