UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-09
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Aug 08 stated that day 897 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 78 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 47 air strikes, 493 drone strikes and 3,391 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of August 9, 2024, the Russian occupiers attacked with "Shahed" type UAVs from the Primorsko-Akhtarsk region - Russian Federation.
Radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 27 attack drones.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, all enemy UAVs💥 shot down by mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, anti-aircraft missile units and EW equipment of the Air Force in Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The Kursk Incursion
Russia upgrades situation in Kursk Oblast to 'federal emergency' amid ongoing battles
The situation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces made a surprise large-scale incursion days before, has been upgraded to a "federal emergency," The Kyiv Independent reported citing the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry on Aug. 9.
Russia said that as of Aug. 8, battles are ongoing in the Sudzhansky (Sudzha) and Korenevsky (Korenevo) border districts of Kursk Oblast. Sudzha is located less than 10 kilometres (6 miles) from the border with Ukraine, while the city of Kursk lies 85 kilometres (53 miles) to the northeast of Sudzha.
Two days prior, Alexey Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, declared a "state of emergency" in the oblast and said the situation remained "very difficult."
The Emergency Situations Ministry said that a "federal-level of response" would be directed at the region, but did not specify what that entailed.
Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat unit fighting for Russia, said in a video on Aug. 8 that Ukrainian forces had advanced around 10 kilometres into Kursk Oblast as of Aug. 7 in a rare admission of military setbacks for Russia.
According to Russian media, several thousand people have been reportedly evacuated from Kursk Oblast.
Grumpy Here - All of this information comes from the Russian side, which has a reputation for out and out falsehoods. It should be noted that the GSAFU invoked Operational Security since the beginning of this operation, so we have received no official confirmation from the Ukrainian side. However a number of of OSINT groups have been creating maps based on geolocated photos and videos of troop movements and engagements allowing us an idea of what is going on. I have included a couple of the latest maps to give you an idea of the situation on the ground.
The first map is from UA Maps published overnight Aug 8/9. Its creators describe it as very conservative based on geolocated data from at least 2 sources.
The second map was released on the night of Aug 8 from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank. The information that their analysis is based on both geolocated footage and information from Russian milblogers, most of whom are critical of the Russian government's response. I feel sometimes that ISW gives too much credence to these sources which are, in reality, still instruments of Russian propaganda. However in this particular instance I agree with ISW’s assessment that their anger over the mishandling of the situation makes their information more credible.
Note that this map shows tendrils leading out from the main advance, these indicate Ukrainian armoured recon units racing ahead of the advance searching for Russian defensive positions, securing intersections and in some cases discovering Russian columns heading into zone that are then attacked by airstrikes, drones and artillery. Sometimes resulting in situations like the one pictured below.
The video shows a column of Russian armour destroyed in Kursk Oblast on their way to the front. These tanks were destroyed on their carriers because they had no idea any Ukrainian units were anywhere nearby.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 6 Russian attacks, supported by aviation over the last day near Vovchansk
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 3 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka and Hlushkivka. 2 attacks are ongoing.
Lyman axis: Russia attacked 22 times unsuccessfully in the direction of settlements of, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny and the Serebryanskyy Forest. 6 battles continue.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 12 assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka. 3 battles are continuing.
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 10 offensive actions near Kalyivka, Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske 3 attacks continue
Toretsk axis: There have been 8 Russian attacks over that last day with air support. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Pivinchne, Zalizne and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The enemy conducted 20 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Panteleimonivka, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Ivanivka, Zhelanne, Novoselivka Persha and and Yasnobrodivka
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance 3 times in the area of settlements Krasnohorivka, and Kostiantinivka.
Vremivka axis: In this sector the situation is under control, Russian forces made 2 attempts to attack Ukrainian positions near Vodiane
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly. 1 enemy attack was repulsed over the last day in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attack against supermarket in Donetsk Oblast's Kostiantynivka kills 10, injures 35
Russia struck a supermarket in the town of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on Aug. 9, killing at least 10 people and injuring at least 35 others,The Kyiv Indepenent reported citing Ukraine's State Emergency Service.
First, Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin said that the town had come under the artillery attack, but specified later that it was hit by a Russian Kh-38 missile.
Local outlet Novosti Donbassa shared the footage of the burning "Ekomarket" building and ruined surroundings.
A freight department of Nova Poshta, Ukraine's largest postal service, that was located in the targeted shopping center was also damaged, the company said.
One of the employees suffered a concussion and is being provided medical assistance. Nova Poshta promised compensation for destroyed packages, adding that not all parcels have been destroyed.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia War Economy Set for Sharp Slowdown After Second Quarter
Russia’s overheating economy fueled by massive Kremlin spending on its invasion of Ukraine may be about to cool sharply amid mounting constraints on key sectors that have bolstered growth until now. Bloomberg reports.
Labour resources are practically exhausted amid fierce competition for recruits between the military and businesses that’s also likely to limit further expansion of defence-related industries. The construction and banking sectors are no longer shielded from the impact of very high interest rates now that most state-subsidised mortgage programs were wound up last month.
While gross domestic product is seen jumping more than 4% annually in the second quarter, growth is likely to slow to half that level over the rest of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Federal Statistics Service will publish its preliminary reading for second quarter GDP later on Friday.
The estimate “is set to show a last growth spurt before Russia’s economy starts to markedly cool,” said Alex Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics. He expects Russia’s growth to slow to around 2% in the second half of the year, and reach 0.5%-1.5% next year.
The government massively increased spending in the wake of the February 2022 invasion, pouring money into the military and defence industries and acting to cushion domestic businesses against the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union.
That caused the economy to overheat to a degree unseen since before the 2008 global financial crisis, according to Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina, in response to the huge surge in domestic demand.
“Russia’s growth potential is hampered by several problems, such as low population growth, high unit labour costs, and a very poor investment climate,” said Tatiana Orlova, economist at Oxford Economics.
Airstrike at Russia’s Lipetsk airbase destroys ammo dump
A drone strike against a military airbase in Russia's Lipetsk Oblast on Aug. 9 set off a chain explosion that detonated more than 700 bombs, the Kyiv Independent reported citing a Ukrainian intelligence source.
Earlier, Russian authorities said that a fire broke out at a military airfield, and an energy facility was damaged in a drone attack in the oblast. The source told the Kyiv Independent that there were fighter jets and helicopters stored at the airbase. It is unknown how many were damaged or destroyed in the attack.
The source said the attack was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in collaboration with the Ukrainian army and the Special Operation Forces. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces confirmed the attack on the airfield but said that the damage was still being clarified.
Ukrainian forces have previously launched drone attacks at military and industrial targets in Lipetsk Oblast, which is located some 450 kilometers (279 miles) from the Ukrainian border. It is northeast of Kursk Oblast, where fighting is currently ongoing after an unprecedented Ukrainian cross-border incursion that began on Aug. 6.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ukraine seeks US approval for ATACMS use in Kursk offensive
Ukraine has asked the US to permit the use of long-range ATACMS missiles to target Russian airfields retaliating against Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Kursk Oblast, Euromaidan Press reported citing The Washington Post.
On Aug 08 Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to permit the use of long-range US ATACMS missiles to target airfields that Russia is using to retaliate against the ongoing incursion in the Kursk region.
An adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the Washington Post that this request, if approved, could allow Kyiv to maintain its hold on a portion of Kursk Oblast for an extended period.
The request comes amidst Ukraine’s ongoing offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which has been active since 6 August. Ukrainian military took control of up to several hundred square kilometres in the area of Sudzha, a Russian town located a few kilometres from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast.
The Biden administration has not objected to the incursion, with Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh stating on 8 August that it conforms with a May policy change allowing Ukrainian commanders to pursue targets in Russia if Russian forces are preparing to launch attacks into Ukraine.
While the Biden administration has not yet responded to the ATACMS use request, it has previously allowed Ukraine to use donated weapons to preempt or intercept attacks originating from Russia in the border areas.
MILITARY & TECH
Germany approves MAUS drone exports to Ukraine
The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany has granted Donaustahl, a defence manufacturer, permission to produce and export MAUS drones. Defence Blog reports.
The first recipient of these advanced drones will be Ukraine, specifically for the Kraken special reconnaissance and sabotage unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
Donaustahl announced this development in a brief statement, highlighting the strategic partnership aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s defence capabilities amid ongoing regional tensions.
The MAUS platform, also known as DS-M-V1A1, is a versatile quadcopter capable of performing both reconnaissance and strike missions.
“The MAUS can be adapted for munitions delivery missions both day and night, equipped with infrared/thermal vision if necessary. Its modular system allows operators to configure the drone according to the mission requirements and target objectives,” the company explained.
A distinctive aspect of the MAUS drone is its construction material. Unlike commercially available drones, which typically use carbon fibre, the MAUS is built using specially treated wood. This choice makes the platform about 10% heavier than conventional FPV drones but approximately 75% cheaper in production costs for the frame, offering a cost-effective solution for military applications.
“The MAUS drone’s modular design and advanced capabilities will provide a critical advantage in the field,” said a spokesperson from Donaustahl. “We are proud to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its territory and ensure regional stability.”
Germany's Rheinmetall to manufacture 8 Forward Surgical Team stations for Ukraine
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has commissioned German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to deliver eight additional Forward Surgical Team (FST) stations for Ukrainian Armed Forces. Rheinmetall reports.
The order is part of the German Federal Government’s initiative. The FST stations will be delivered to Ukraine between 2024 and 2026.
According to Rheinmetall, the order comprises eight turnkey-ready systems equipped with highly modern medical technology, including X-ray containers, operating theatres and intensive care units designed in accordance with modern hospital standards.
Rheinmetall will also deliver mobile components consisting of three HGVs from Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles (RMMW), including the trailers, for transporting the FST units.
"The order is valued in a medium double-digit million Euro range," Rheinmetall said.
"The medical care facilities from Rheinmetall are highly mobile, very fast operational and quality-wise on the highest standard. The newly placed order underlines that our first deliveries to the Ukraine concerning medical technology have proven their worth," Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said.
In addition to the FST rescue units, Rheinmetall will also offer a one-week training course for Ukrainian personnel in Germany.
Ukraine Gains Advantage with Leaked Russian Air Defense Data
The National Resistance Center of Ukraine has released technical documentation for Russian Pantsir-S and TOR-M1 air defence systems, which could significantly impact the ongoing war in Ukraine. This release follows recent successes in neutralising Crimea’s air defence, prompting the Kremlin to scramble reinforcements from various parts of Russia. Defense Express reports.
However, the situation on the ground is more complex than it appears. Not all Russian air force personnel are eager to be deployed to the increasingly dangerous region, leading some concerned insiders to leak these sensitive documents. The disclosure of such information could weaken Russia's strategic defences, giving Ukraine and its allies a potential advantage.
The Pantsir-S and TOR-M1 systems are vital components of Russia's air defence strategy, designed to protect against aircraft, drones and other aerial threats. By obtaining these technical details, the National Resistance Center of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine may better understand and counter these systems, potentially altering the balance of power in the region.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
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