UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-03
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 03 stated that it was The six hundred and seventy-ninth day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
The aggressor continues to ignore the laws and customs of warfare, uses terror tactics, launches missile and air strikes, fires multiple rocket launchers not only at the military, but also at numerous civilian objects of our state.
During the past day, 57 combat clashes took place. In total, the enemy launched 89 missile and 72 air strikes, including by "Shahed-136/131" type drones, carried out 48 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas. As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, more than 130 civilians, including children, have been killed and injured
Ukrainian troops blow up Russia’s newest radar system
Video released on Jan. 02 showed Ukrainian troops detected the Yastreb-AV and relayed the coordinates to artillery units within the Ukrainian military. This led to a precise strike executed with HIMARS, effectively neutralising the threat posed by the Russian radar system.
Reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense revealed that this cutting-edge system had only recently been deployed to artillery units stationed within Ukraine’s territory.
Specifications of this state-of-the-art artillery reconnaissance complex, the 1K148 “Yastreb-AV,” remain undisclosed. Its public debut occurred at the “Army-2022” forum.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Assaults continue on Synkivka
In the Kupyansk direction. The GSAFU reports daily assaults by Russian troops continue near the settlement of Synkivka to create a bridgehead and further advance on the city of Kupyansk.
In the Lyman direction. The GSAFU reports that Russian occupiers, after suffering losses, are regrouping and preparing for offensive operations. At the same time, in this direction, the enemy is actively using aviation to strike with guided aerial bombs.
Fighting escalates near Bohanivka
In particular, in the Bakhmut direction, The GSAFU reports intense fighting continues near the settlement of Bohdanivka. Also, the enemy is trying to advance in the direction of the city of Chasovyi Yar.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukraine improves positions near Novobakhmutivka
In the Avdiivka direction. The GSAFU reports Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who does not stop trying to surround Avdiivka. Our soldiers firmly hold the defense, inflicting significant losses on the invaders. Thus, during the past 24 hours, the Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychiv, Avdiyivka and another 16 attacks in the Pervomaiskyi and Nevelskyi districts of the Donetsk region. Southeast of Novobakhmutivka, our defenders improved their tactical position.
Ukrainian forces advance near Verbove
In the Zaporizhzhia direction. The GSAFU reports the Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region. In the Verbove area, our troops advanced, forcing the enemy to abandon some positions.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
AFU repels further assaults near Krynky
In the Kherson direction. The GSAFU reports Ukrainian forces continue measures to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the occupiers continue trying to drive Ukraine’s units out of their positions. During the past day, the enemy carried out 9 unsuccessful assault actions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Explosions heard in Sevastopol, smoke columns are reported
Local social media channels have reported explosions in temporarily occupied Sevastopol. The official occupiers claim that a missile was allegedly shot down over the coastal area, and no damage to infrastructure was recorded.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy: Russia has launched at least 500 missiles, drones at Ukraine over past five days
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a telephone conversation with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Jan. 02, as reported by Zelenskyy. He informed Sunak that, over the last five days, Russia has launched at least 500 missiles and drones against Ukraine.
During the conversation, Zelenskyy briefed Sunak on the recent intensive Russian bombardments. He expressed gratitude for Britain’s “substantial and comprehensive aid in” strengthening Ukraine’s air defence capabilities.
Furthermore, the two leaders discussed defence cooperation, emphasising the enhancement of Ukraine’s air defence and long-range capabilities. They also focused on the progress of a bilateral agreement regarding the UK’s security commitments to Ukraine.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Putin changes his story in an attempt to justify enormous casualties
The Institute for the Study of War in its Jan. 02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West.
His framing of his war in Ukraine as a Russian struggle against the West – and not Ukraine – indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is setting information conditions aimed at convincing the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations.
Putin may be expanding his war aims in Ukraine to include confrontation with the West in an effort to set conditions for permanent Russian military buildup and to justify high battlefield sacrifices.
Russia gained almost no meaningful ground in 2023 at a high manpower cost, despite Putin’s January 1 absurd claims that he only orders Russian servicemen to launch offensives that will not generate significant casualties. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), however, stated on December 30 that “the average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 during the course of 2023” and that Russian casualties could rise to over half a million by the end of 2024.A declassified US intelligence assessment shared with Congress on December 12 stated that Russian forces have lost 315,000 personnel since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Such high casualties for small territorial gains are likely prompting Putin to present a strong and ideological justification to continue the prolonged war of choice on which he has launched Russia.
British Intel: Russia changes approach in its long-range strikes on Ukraine
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 03 Intelligence Update stated that Recent Russian missile attacks on Ukraine indicate a change in Moscow’s use of long-range strikes, from energy to defence industry.
The report states recent strikes have “likely primarily targeted Ukraine’s defence industry,” in contrast to Russia’s “major attacks last winter which prioritised striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.”
“Russian planners recognise the growing importance of relative defence industrial capacity as they prepare for a long war,” UK MOD intel said.
According to the report, Russian forces committed a significant proportion of the stock of air launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles they had built up over recent months.
This suggests Russia is adjusting its tactics after depleting part of its missile arsenal through the intense bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure since October 2022, the UK intel said.
The most recent strikes happened after a summer-autumnal lull when Russia was considered to be stockpiling missiles.
In its recent massive strikes, Russia mostly hit residential buildings. It also damaged the power system, warehouses, heating networks, cars, etc.
Putin's party steps up recruitment to its private army, “Española”
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) reported that Vladimir Putin's Edinaya Rossiya (United Russia) party has acquired its own private army, the so-called private military company (PMC) Española, and is actively recruiting football ultras (the most hot-headed football fans), ultranationalists and civilians from impoverished regions of the Russian Federation and the occupied territories of Ukraine.
HUR explained that Española was previously part of the so-called Vostok Battalion, a Russian militant group with alleged links to Russian intelligence which has fought in Donbas since 2014.
Since 2023, Española has been at the disposal of members of Putin's party. The terrorist unit has claimed the status of a so-called private military company and begun a recruitment campaign funded by money from Edinaya Rossiya.
According to the HUR, Española is not only recruiting so-called football ultras, but Russian radicals of all stripes, including Nazi sympathisers, and ordinary civilians from impoverished regions of Russia and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
"The latter are used in ‘meat-grinder’ assaults in order to create the status of a ‘combat unit’,"
— Ukrainian military intelligence
Grumpy analysis — I suspect the recruitment of these bullies may have more to do with intimidation during the upcoming presidential “election” in Russia than any more martial purpose.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
France to change weapons supply tactics – French Ambassador to Ukraine
French Ambassador Gaël Veyssière in an interview stated France is committed to producing more weapons in Ukraine, not just donating or purchasing them.
"French support for the supply of military equipment is, of course, continuing. It will gradually change its nature, as the goal is to produce more weapons in Ukraine, rather than proceeding solely through donations or purchases."
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Develops Wheels with RunFlat Technology for Combat Pickups
The Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, reported that "armoured wheels" are being tested for combat pickups as part of the Brave1 platform.
"RunFlat is a special insert in car tires that allows a car to drive even on punctured or damaged wheels. Especially relevant during the evacuation of the wounded, the execution of combat missions, or the delivery of supplies to the Defense Forces. Soldiers don't need to stop and expose themselves to danger; they can continue moving to a safe location,"
— Mykhailo Fedorov, the Minister of Digital Transformation
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