UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-28
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Russian assaults on Luhansk intensify
Russian army intensifies shelling of Luhansk Oblast and engages additional forces for assaults, Luhansk Oblast head Artem Lysohor said on Svoboda.Ranok.
Russian troops carry out between 150 to 170 attacks per day in Luhansk Oblast, using aviation, mortars and artillery, according to Lysohor.
According to him, Russian forces have brought in a whole other army with strong air support over the past month. There are territorial troops and paratroopers, including the newly formed Storm V and Storm Z groups, which they throw at the positions first, so-called ‘meat assaults.’
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Capture on Marinka is not operationally significant
The Institute for the Study of War(ISW) in its Dec. 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russia's likely capture of Marinka in Donetsk Oblast represents a limited Russian tactical gain and does not portend any operationally significant advance unless Russian forces have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward movement, which they show no signs of having done.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated on December 26 that combat has effectively destroyed Marinka, acknowledged that Ukrainian forces withdrew in part from Marinka, and stated that Ukrainian forces nonetheless are still operating in the northern outskirts of Marinka and have prepared a defensive line outside of the settlement.
Geolocated footage posted on December 25 indicates that Russian forces advanced in the northern sections of Marinka. ISW assesses that Russian forces likely control most if not all of Marinka despite not yet observing visual confirmation of the complete Russian capture of Marinka as of December 26. Putin claimed that the Russian capture of Marinka will allow Russian forces to push Ukrainian combat units away from occupied Donetsk City and create a wider operational space for Russian forces.
A small and completely destroyed settlement does not offer Russian forces a secure operational foothold from which to launch further offensive operations. Marinka is located less than a kilometre from the pre-invasion frontline and Ukrainian forces have long fortified many of the surrounding settlements, which Russian forces have been similarly struggling to capture.
Ukrainian Forces in Western Zaporizhia retreat to winter quarters permitting Russians to regain lost positions
The Institute for the Study of War(ISW) in its Dec. 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and retook positions that Ukrainian forces had captured during the summer 2023 counteroffensive, likely after Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions near Robotyne for the winter.
ISW assessed that the Ukrainian capture of nearby positions in August 2023 was tactically significant because it could have allowed Ukrainian forces to begin operating past the densest Russian minefields and subsequent Russian defensive layers but does not assess that the recapture of these positions by Russian forces is particularly significant at this time.
Recent Russian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast nevertheless support ISW’s assessment that the current positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate because the current balance can be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West or in Russia, and limited Russian gains could become significant especially if the West cuts off military aid to Ukraine
Russian War Crime caught on camera
A video filmed by a Ukrainian recon drone revealed a brutal murder of three unarmed Ukrainian soldiers near Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian soldiers shot Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast (southeastern Ukraine).
The undated video of the war crime recorded by a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone was posted on Telegram by Stanislav Buniatov, a soldier of the 24th Separate Assault Brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
The video shows Russian invaders shooting three Ukrainian soldiers who were captured during heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive was taking place. After the execution of unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war, one of the Russian soldiers finished off the apparently dead military with a last shot at a close distance.
The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reported that an investigation had been initiated into the violation of the laws and customs of war combined with premeditated murder according to part 2 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. The pre-trial investigation is being carried out by investigators of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Russian assaults halved following loss of air superiority in Kherson
The Institute for the Study of War(ISW) in its Dec. 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces have reportedly decreased the tempo of their operations on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, likely in connection with decreasing Russian aviation activity after Ukrainian forces recently shot down several Russian aircraft.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated on December 26 that Russian forces on the east bank Kherson Oblast are conducting half as many ground attacks against Ukrainian positions per day in comparison to the previous average of 30 assaults daily.
Dec. 26 airstrike in Qirim damaged port infrastructure
The Institute for the Study of War(ISW) in its Dec. 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that satellite imagery from the successful December 26 Ukrainian strike on a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel in occupied Feodosia, Qirim indicates that the strike damaged the surrounding port infrastructure.
Satellite imagery published on December 27 taken on December 26 indicates that the Ukrainian strike on the BSF’s Novocherkassk Ropucha-class landing ship also damaged a pier at the Feodosia port and a nearby warehouse. The satellite imagery shows that most of the ship is heavily burned and mostly submerged.
Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmitry Pletenchuk stated on December 27 that the strike may have killed up to 80 Russian personnel. Russian opposition news outlet Astra reported that there were 77 Russian military personnel aboard the Novocherkassk at the time of the strike of whom 33 are missing and 19 are wounded.
Satellite imagery in the Dec. 27 photo shows not only the destroyed Novocherkassk [outlined in yellow] and significant damage to the port facilities, but also a second partially submerged ship [also outlined in yellow] reportedly a training vessel for the Black Sea Fleet
Below is a photo of the second ship reportedly sunk by Ukraine on Dec. 26
British Intel — Destruction of Novocherkassk another key Russian warships lost
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Dec. 28 Intelligence Update stated that On 25 December 2023, the Russian Navy’s Ropucha class Landing Ship Tank (LST) Novocherkassk was completely destroyed following a Ukrainian strike while alongside at the port of Feodosia, on the south coast of Russian-occupied Crimea.
Open source evidence suggests it is highly likely the vessel was carrying explosive cargo when it was hit, causing a large secondary explosion.
The incident takes the number of LSTs Russia has lost since the invasion to three: the Saratov sank on 24 March 2022, while the Minsk was functionally destroyed in dry dock on 13 September 2023. Two additional LSTs have likely been damaged.
Russia likely planned to use its LST force to launch significant amphibious assaults during the invasion and it doubled the number of these vessels in the Black Sea during the build-up to the war.
As the war has dragged on, the ships have been more commonly employed in providing logistical support. This is a significant role because it augments the vital and relatively fragile road and rail connection of the Crimea Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia.
Panamanian freighter damaged by Russian mine in Black Sea
A civilian vessel sailing under the Panamanian flag was damaged by a Russian sea mine explosion in the Black Sea, the Southern Defence Forces reported on the morning of 28 December.
The bulk carrier was hit on its way to a Danube port to load grain on 27 December in the morning at the mouth of the Shvydka River.
The ship’s captain and a sailor, both of whom were Egyptian citizens, were injured. The vessel lost control, and a fire broke out on deck, but the crew were able to ground the ship to avoid sinking. Damage to the ship is being assessed, the head of the Odesa Regional Prosecutor’s Office, Ihor Domuyev, said during a briefing at the Media Centre Ukraine – Odesa.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine plans systemization of mobilisation over the long term
The Institute for the Study of War(ISW) in its Dec. 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the Ukrainian government continues efforts to systematise and increase the sustainability of Ukrainian mobilisation over the long term.
The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers submitted a set of proposed amendments to Ukraine’s mobilisation, military registration, and military service laws on Dec. 25, which include provisions to lower the conscription age for mobilisation from 27 to 25 years old, discharge servicemen after they serve for 36 months provided there is no Ukrainian manpower crisis or a major escalation on the battlefield, and allow servicemen to rotate from the front every six months.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi noted the complexity of legislating mobilisation and service requirements during wartime on December 26, stating that war develops according to its own laws and that the situation along the front is dependent on the Russian military’s actions. Zaluzhnyi added that Ukraine cannot predict what the war will look like in five to six months.
Ukraine is mass producing several equivalents to Russia’s Iranian-made Shahed drones
Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said that Ukraine is mass-producing “more than five” indigenous analogs of Russia’s Iranian-made Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones at a press conference on Dec. 27.
Three publicly known Ukrainian analogs of Shahed-131 are the drones UJ-26 Bober, AQ 400 Scythe, and Cobra.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Ukrainian hackers’ cyber attack Russia’s biggest enterprise management system
According to the Ministry of Digital Transformation, hackers from the Ukrainian IT army have paralyzed the operation of the Russian automated enterprise management system 1C-Rarus. Currently, users of the service cannot use it. The 1C-Rarus has 150,000 users, including technological giants and sponsors of the war such as “Tatneft” and VTB. Clients in stores and gas stations are unable to make payments because the cash register is not functioning, resulting in significant losses for the Russian economy.
This is the third such attack by Ukrainian hackers this month, following a Dec. 12 Russian attack on Kyivstar that crippled Ukrainian telecommunications for several days.
In response Ukrainian hackers, allegedly affiliated with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), launched a cyber operation against Rosvodokanal, Russia’s largest private water supply company with 7 million consumers, Liga media outlet reported, citing an undisclosed source. The source described the operation as “revenge for the attack on Kyivstar.”
Then on Dec. 20, the Blackjack hackers group orchestrated a powerful cyberattack, crippling the IT infrastructure of Rosvodokanal. As a result of the operation, the SBU received 1.5 TB of data from Rosvodokanal.
In an affiliated cyber offensive, the IT Army of Ukraine, on 20 December, claimed responsibility for a successful attack on the servers of the Russian cloud service Bitrix24, which is used by entities including the war sponsor Rosneft. This attack resulted in 40% of Bitrix24 users experiencing access issues to CRM systems and other services.
The Cyber War continues…
Russia uses POWs as a political weapon against Kyiv
Politico posted an article on Dec.27 that claimed Russia is manipulating Ukrainian prisoners of war and their families to attempt to destabilise the Ukrainian Government.
One wife of a soldier captured more than a year ago said that she received a phone call from her husband, the first since he was captured.
“We talked only for three minutes. I was not allowed to ask him questions. As soon as I tried, he shook his head and just said no. Instead, he kept saying: ‘Valya, go make things hard for Kyiv. Kyiv does not want to take us back … Then he said he was sorry and ended the call, promising to call me back if he ever has a chance.”
— Wife of Ukrainian POW
Petro Yatsenko, spokesperson for Ukraine’s coordinating staff on the treatment of prisoners of war, told Politico that other families have received similar calls from soldiers being held by the Russians.
“A person has not heard from a relative for more than a year, and here he calls and says that he is alive. Russians are ready to exchange him, but Ukraine does nothing. Recently these calls became massive. So, we understood that this is a campaign to cause distrust in the government,”
— Petro Yatsenko
The Russian refusal to exchange POWs appears aimed at inflaming tensions in Ukrainian society, where dissatisfaction with Zelenskyy is rising in the wake of this year's disappointing counteroffensive, and the mood is turning grim as crucial aid for Ukraine stalls in the U.S. Senate and Hungary blocks the EU's efforts to boost civilian and military help for Kyiv.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Nothing to report.
MILITARY & TECH
Air Force spokesman urges people to stop spreading rumours about F-16s
The spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ihnat, has once again called on Telegram channels not to spread false information about the F-16's presence in Ukraine.
Ihnat said he had to do 23 interviews the previous day with both Ukrainian and foreign media to refute idiotic Russian statements about the destruction of F-16s, as well as rumours of their use in Ukraine.
Ihnat emphasised that Ukraine is unlikely to receive an F-16 aircraft in the near future.
"The American edition of Newsweek published an article with incredible assumptions about the presence of F-16s in Ukraine and even their ALLEGED involvement in the destruction of six Russian aircraft. This is a great chance for hype for our Telegram channels and various media that do not care about their own reputation.
Everything is going smoothly, and the coalition of countries is fulfilling its obligations. They are ready to hand over the aircraft, but ready does not mean they will hand them over immediately. Everything takes its time."
— Yuriy Ihnat, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson
Minister of Strategic Industries on "hybrid" air defence systems operating in Ukraine
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries, stated at a press conference on Dec. 27 that Ukraine and the United States have developed five projects of rapid "hybrid" solutions that will significantly strengthen Ukraine's air defence.
The minister said that the essence of all projects under the joint FrankenSAM brand is to integrate parts of Western air defence systems into old Soviet systems, which are in large numbers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are various short, medium and even long-range projects.
There are projects where containers with American missiles are simply placed on old Soviet launchers, and there are solutions where entire American launchers are integrated into a common S-300 air defence system.
The minister noted that the first systems are already operating in Ukraine, and the next ones will arrive every month to strengthen the air defence system.
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