UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-13
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 13 stated that it was day 749 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 91 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 10 missile strikes, 84 air strikes, and 123 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 3 concentrations of troops, 1 artillery system, 1 ammunition depot, and 2 air defense systems of the russian invaders.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 9 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment of enemy.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 4 assaults in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast) and Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka and east of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka and Novomvahkilivka (Donetsk oblast) Over the last day, the enemy supported by aviation, made 26 attempts to break through the defences of Ukrainian troops.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 attacks near Robotyne, northwest of Verbove and south of Staromaiors’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Over 1,000 civilian ships defy Russia, transit Ukraine’s Black Sea “grain corridor”
On 9 March, US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink announced that 1,005 civilian ships had used the “grain corridor” from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, delivering approximately 30 million tons of cargo, including grain, to global markets, despite Russia’s attempts to blockade the sea and persistent efforts to undermine international confidence in the corridor.
The Ukraine-established grain corridor has allowed Ukraine to resume maritime exports of agricultural commodities from its Black Sea ports amid the Russian sea blockade after the Russian withdrawal from the UN- and Türkiye-brokered so-called grain deal that allowed the Ukrainian grain exports only if Russia could inspect the ships.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Early Start of russian Presidential Elections in Temporarily Occupied Territories
The UK Ministry of Defence in it’s Mar. 13 Intelligence Update stated that according to local officials, voting in the Mar. 15-17, 2024, russian presidential elections has started early across the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Efforts by russian officials to get the population to vote are intensifying. In Luhansk, 2,600 officials have been drafted in to visit homes and persuade residents to vote. Heads of educational and other government establishments have been told to ensure their subordinates turn out to vote. With no independent election observers, and voter lists in at least one town absent, the potential for falsification of results is increased.
With significant population displacement and migration from these areas due to the on-going war, it is likely that only approximately a third of the pre-war population remains.
Whilst russia has no legitimate basis to hold elections on the territory of Ukraine, the credibility of the elections is undermined further by a lack of proper representation, poor security and coercive measures to pressure the population to vote. It is highly likely the occupation authorities in these territories will claim a high turnout with overwhelming support for Putin irrespective of what actually happens, to give the impression that a democratic choice has been made.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih kills 5
On Mar. 12, the Russians fired a Kh-59 air-launched missile on Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Missile debris landed on a high-rise building, causing a fire. Initial reports indicated that three people had been killed and over 40 injured.
Later, Oleksandr Vilkul, Head of Kryvyi Rih Defence Council announced that the death toll following the Russian missile attack had risen to five after a woman succumbed to her injuries in hospital and the body of another man was found under the rubble.
Ukraine achieves independence from Russian influence in nuclear industry
Petro Kotin, President of Energoatom, Ukraine’s state-run company responsible for the operation of nuclear power plants stated that Ukraine has become independent of Russian technologies and nuclear fuel, despite the full-scale war.
"We have completed this process and are no longer dependent on Russian technologies and fuel. They have always used their supplies to pressure and blackmail us," Kotin said
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Energoatom completely abandoned Russian nuclear fuel and replaced it with fuel from the American company Westinghouse, which is successfully used at all domestic nuclear power plants.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian drone attack halts operation of Russian Novoshakhtinsk Refinery
Drones of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) attacked the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov Oblast on Mar. 12 , causing the suspension of the facility's operations. Numerous agencies reported.
Initially, Russian media reported that three UAVs were destroyed on the approach to Novoshakhtinsk. A source withing the HUR emphasised that Russia uses this facility for military purposes.
Later, Vasily Golubyov, Governor of Rostov Oblast, stated that Ukrainian UAVs crashed on the territory of the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, leading to the suspension of the technological facilities.
Russian Volunteer Corps claims to have invaded Russia
On Mar 12 the Russian Volunteer Corps consisting of the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Siberian Battalion reported they had crossed the border into Russia.
RVC Commander Denis Nikitin, alias White Rex, stated in a comment to UP that the military volunteers will continue the operation. Nikitin said that fighters primarily use captured Russian weapons during their raids.
The operations are being carried out in coordination with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian intelligence, but Nikitin emphasised that the actions of the Russian Volunteer Corps are solely their own initiative and planning.
Grumpy Here — Since yesterday these groups have posted a metric asston of videos, in fact they appear to have more videographers than soldiers. There does appear to have been some shooting on the Russian side of the border, and regardless of tangible results this is an embarrassment for Putin at a very sensitive time. I will reserve judgement on the tactical importance of this “invasion” and suggest you do the same.
WORLD NEWS
Scholz’s Partners Push to Change His Mind on Taurus.
Olaf Scholz’s top coalition partners are pushing the German chancellor to drop his opposition to supplying long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Bloomberg reports.
The Greens and Free Democrats have been urging Scholz to send the weapons, which are used for precision strikes against hardened targets like bunkers and have a range of more than 500 kilometers (311 miles).
The chancellor has justified his resistance — broadly backed by his Social Democrats — by arguing that German personnel would have to be stationed in Ukraine to help operate the targeting system, potentially making Germany a direct participant in the war. He is also concerned the Taurus could be deployed against targets inside Russia, including Moscow. Polls suggest a majority of Germans support him.
Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the leader of the Free Democrats, doesn’t agree with Scholz’s justification and is still hopeful he will change his mind, according to a person familiar with his thinking. He suggested technical adjustments to reduce the range of the missiles and prevent them from being used against Russian territory, the person said.
Robert Habeck of the Greens, the economy minister and vice chancellor, is also sympathetic to lawmakers who back sending the Taurus and is irritated by Scholz’s unilateral decision, another person with knowledge of his views said. Both people asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.
Scholz has been under pressure for nearly a year to agree to Ukraine’s request for the missiles. Instead, he has highlighted that Germany has been one of the most generous backers of the government in Kyiv, pledging military assistance worth around $30 billion.
Addressing the Taurus issue, he said it was his job as chancellor “to be precise here and not to raise any misleading expectations.”
Grumpy Here — Neither of Scholz’s arguments hold much validity. Moscow as we stated previously is well outside the stated range of the Taurus and his own military in the recent leaked recordings disputed his claim that providing Taurus to Ukraine would necessitate German troops on the ground in Ukraine.
It is no secret, Ukraine wants Taurus for one main reason - It is the one weapon it can easily deploy that would destroy the Kerch Bridge. Taurus is specifically designed for that purpose. None of the weapons Ukraine currently possesses that ability. It appears Mr Scholz does not want this to happen.
Ukrainian journalists film Poland's trade with Russia and were deported with their property seized
Rayon.in.ua, a Ukrainian news outlet, reported that Polish law enforcers have detained two journalists who were investigating Poland's trade with Russia.
Editor Yurii Konkevych and videographer Oleksandr Piliuk were detained on 7 March while recording the crossing of the border by lorries between the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Poland.
"Rayon.Zakordon travelled to the north of Poland, to the border with the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation, to see how gas and grain from Russia are still flowing through Poland to Europe. We did not see any checkpoints of Polish farmers there, but instead saw Russian Railways cars. The Polish police detained us and seized our property, did not inform the consul, did not allow us to call [our contacts in] Ukraine, and the Internal Security Agency called us persons threatening the national security of Poland and expelled us."
— Yurii Konkevych,Editor Rayon.in.ua
The journalists were reportedly detained in the city of Braniewo. It happened on 7 March at around 13:10 local time.
"The reason for the detention was that the journalists had been taking pictures of critical infrastructure facilities, namely Russian liquefied gas cars, for too long," Rayon.in.ua said.
It is also reported that police officers searched the journalists’ car without their consent. They seized an editorial laptop, three microphones, headphones, lighting equipment and other personal belongings from a backpack in the car.
Ukraine's Armed Forces will soon receive ammunition supplies from the Czech initiative
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has stated, during a joint press conference with his Moldovan counterpart Mihail Popșoi in Kyiv that according to the signals received by Kyiv, Ukrainian military forces will soon experience an increase in ammunition supplies as part of the Czech initiative.
"Based on early signals we received, our guys on the front will experience an increase in ammunition supplies in the very near future. It won't take many months.The Czech initiative is designed to be implemented throughout the year. The first ammunition will start arriving in the near future. Then, new batches will continue to arrive throughout the year," noted Kuleba.
He said that contacts with Czech colleagues would take place this week, during which they would outline the plan for ammunition deliveries and how the ammunition initiative would work. He added that Kyiv was ready for full cooperation and support.
EU leaders to call for new sanctions on Belarus, North Korea, Iran
European Union leaders are set to call for new sanctions targeting Belarus, North Korea, and Iran over their alleged role in assisting Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine. Bloomberg reports.
According to draft conclusions of the upcoming Mar. 21-22 leaders’ summit, the EU will aim to “restrict Russia’s access to sensitive items and technologies with battlefield relevance.” This includes “targeting entities in third countries enabling this illicit trade,” the draft conclusions state.
The proposed measures come as the EU approved the latest package of sanctions in February, its 13th since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These latest measures aimed to blacklist Russian drone producers and global procurement networks supplying components to Moscow’s military
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine to mass-produce versatile robotic platforms for frontline missions
Ground robotic platforms are set to be the next game-changer in the war, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov.
Ukraine is launching the mass production of robotic ground platforms, with deployment on the battlefield expected within a few months. These platforms are designed to destroy enemy positions and equipment, lay and clear mines, evacuate the wounded, and deliver ammunition.
“The main goal of ground robots is to minimise human involvement on the battlefield. Ground robotic complexes will become the next game-changer in this war, just like drones. It is an asymmetric response to the enemy’s numerical advantage,” Fedorov said.
He further revealed that the Brave1 cluster has tested over 50 such complexes at the testing grounds. In the coming months, hundreds of platforms of various types will be purchased through the UNITED24 initiative and handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The minister also mentioned that over 140 robotic systems are registered on the Brave1 platform, with 96 having passed defense expertise and 14 codified according to NATO standards. Some systems, such as the robotic turret ShaBlia, are already operational on the front lines.
US announces first military aid package for Ukraine in 2024 amid stalled funding in Congress
The US will deliver a $300 million military aid package to Ukraine, marking the first such aid in 2024, amidst ongoing funding blockades in the US Congress. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor to President Biden, announced the package during a briefing on Mar. 12. The announcement comes amidst a standoff in Congress.
“Today, on behalf of President Biden, I am announcing a package of emergency security assistance with weapons and equipment worth $300 million to meet some of Ukraine’s most critical needs,” Sullivan stated.
He added that the funds for this security assistance became available through “unforeseen savings” in contracts already signed by the Pentagon for replacing the weapons supplied to Ukraine, ensuring that the package would not impact American security.
Sullivan emphasised the urgency of the aid, stating, “This package, which we are announcing, contains a large number of artillery shells, GLMRS projectiles for HIMARS systems. This is the assistance that Ukraine desperately needs to hold the defence against Russian attacks.”
Denmark announces a new $ 337 million military aid package for Ukraine.
The Danish Ministry of Defense has announced its latest military aid package for Ukraine, including Caesar self-propelled howitzers, 120 mm mortars, and associated ammunition.
“Artillery and mortar systems are in high demand by Ukraine. With this donation package, we are providing a substantial contribution to the Ukrainians’ fight for freedom, including additional Caesar artillery systems and accompanying ammunition. These donations, made in collaboration with our allies, send an important signal that we stand united behind Ukraine,” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated.
The aid package, valued at approximately 2.3 billion Danish kroner ($337 million), is the 16th military aid package from Denmark to Ukraine. It includes financing for Caesar howitzers in collaboration with France and 155 mm artillery shells in partnership with Estonia and the Czech Republic.
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