UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-04
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on May 4 stated that it was day 801 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 119 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 5 missile strikes, 105 air strikes, and 91 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
More than 110 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 command post and 2 artillery systems
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 13 concentrations of troops and 3 command posts
On the night of May 4, 2024, the enemy attacked with 13 Shahed UAVs and four S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles. All launches were made from the Belgorod region (Russia).
As a result of combat operations by the air force anti-aircraft missile units and mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 13 Shahed UAVs in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 9 attacks in the vicinities of Petropavlivka, Kyslivka, (Kharkiv oblast), and Stelmakhivka (Luhansk oblast). Where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Lyman axis: The enemy launched 7 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Makiivka, Nevs’ke, Serebryans’ke forestry (Luhansk oblast), plus Terny and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast). Where, supported by aviation, they attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 27 Russian attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast) Novyi, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast). With air support, the invaders attempted to improve their tactical position in that area.
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The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 34 attacks in the vicinities of Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka , Sokil, Novopokrovske, Semenivka, Umanske and Netailove (Donetsk oblast). Where, with the air support, the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka and Vodyane (Donetsk oblast).Where,with the air support, the invaders made 22 attempts to breach Ukrainian defense in that area.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 5 attacks, with air support, on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 11 unsuccessful assaults on the bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River attempting to dislodge them from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia conducted 380 air attacks on Ukrainian cities and regions this week alone
Russian attacks hit the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kharkiv the most as well as Kherson, Mykolayiv, Donetsk, and other regions of the country, killing and wounding civilians. Euromaidan reports.
The most devastating and horrible became the Russian attack on Odesa on Apr. 29, when Russian forces used an Iskander ballistic missile with a cluster warhead against ordinary coastal streets, killing 5 civilians and injuring over 30, including children and a pregnant woman.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on allies to provide air defense and weapons in a more timely manner.
“Timely and sufficient decisions on air defense for Ukraine and timely weapon supplies for our warriors are what we need right now to protect lives… Russia’s daily deliberate terror against our people, cities, and villages can be stopped. Our partners have all of the necessary systems and weapons to enable Ukraine to protect lives,” he stressed.
RUSSIAN WORLD
ISW - Russia’s elite units completely degraded
The Institute for the Study of War in its May 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces in Ukraine have not significantly increased in size in recent months but that the Russian military continues to improve its fighting qualities overall despite suffering widespread degradation, especially among elite units since the start of the war.
Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that roughly 510,000 to 515,000 Russian personnel are currently deployed in occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported in January 2024 that Russian forces had roughly 462,000 personnel deployed in Ukraine and noted that this was the entire land component of the Russian military at the time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in December 2023 that there were 617,000 Russian personnel in the “combat zone,” likely referring to all Russian military personnel in the zone of the “special military operation,” which includes areas within Russia bordering Ukraine. These figures likely encompass combat personnel and other military personnel who perform support functions and do not represent the immediate combat power that Russian forces have and can commit to offensive operations in Ukraine. The specific breakdown between Russian combat and non-combat personnel in Ukraine is unclear. The overall marginal increase in the size of the Russian deployment to occupied Ukraine between January and April 2024 indicates that Russian forces have likely committed the majority of recently generated forces to ongoing offensive operations instead of efforts to establish strategic-level reserves.
Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated that the current Russian military is unrecognizable from the force that launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022. He noted that Russia’s once-elite airborne (VDV) and naval infantry elements have been completely degraded and that Russia will not be able to reconstitute them to their former combat capabilities for at least a decade.
Russian forces have heavily degraded relatively elite units by employing them in attritional ground assaults and counterattacks regardless of their designated functions and elite capabilities. Degradation and the Russian military command’s decision to commit all forces along the frontline to more or less similar operations have transformed all Russian units in Ukraine regardless of their formal designations into motorized rifle units — mechanized infantry responsible for conducting combined arms ground assaults.
Skibitskyi acknowledged that the Russian military is improving in some respects, however, and stated that the Russian military is now operating as a “single body, with a clear plan, under a single command.” The Russian military has demonstrated an uneven propensity for operational, tactical, and technological innovation and learning, particularly with operational planning. The Russian military is now entirely comprised of less-elite de facto motorized rifle units, but these units continue to innovate and adapt to fighting in Ukraine while relying on materiel and manpower advantages to increasingly pressure Ukrainian forces and exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities.
France – Russian losses in Ukraine reach 500.000
French Foreign Minister Stéphane Sèjourné stated that France estimates Russia has suffered 500,000 military casualties – both killed and wounded – since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Novaya Gazeta reports
This figure exceeds Ukrainian military estimates, which recently surpassed 470,000 Russian losses. With over 1,000 new Russian casualties reported daily, the escalating bloodshed shows no signs of abating.
“Russia’s military failure is already evident. Our estimates show 500,000 casualties, including 150,000 killed. And all for what? In short – for nothing,” Sèjourné said in an interview with the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta. Europa.
On the possibility of NATO troop deployments, the minister echoed French President Macron’s stance, stating Europe must overtly warn Russia that when continental peace and European security are threatened, no option is off the table.
However, Sèjourné stressed France’s relations with Russia remain “based on mutual respect between our peoples,” even as he condemned the “reckless” Russian authorities disregarding international laws and human lives.
UK Defence Intelligence forecasts increase in Russian losses in the next 2 months
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 4 Intelligence Update stated that the average daily number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) remained within the average range for 2024, with 899 per day.
However they suspect that in the next two months, Russian losses in the war against Ukraine will be greater due to offensive operations.
"It is likely that Russia's casualty rate will again increase over the next two months as they renew dedicated offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. This follows a slight decrease in the pace of operations over the past two months since the fall of Avdiivka,"
UK intelligence asserts that Russia has adapted its military to a war of attrition, which relies more on quantity than quality.
"This reliance on mass will almost certainly continue for the duration of the Ukraine war and have long-lasting effects on Russia's future army," the review concludes.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
G-7 considers US-Led plan for $50 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine
The US is in talks with close partners to lead a group of allies that would give as much as $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the massive outlay being repaid with the windfall profits from sovereign Russian assets that have been frozen – and are accruing interest — mostly in Europe. Bloomberg reports.
The plan is being discussed among the Group of Seven nations, with the US pushing to have an agreement when G-7 leaders meet in Italy in June, according to people familiar with the proposal. Discussions on this topic have been difficult and an agreement could still take months, they said.
The plan signals a strong show of support from Washington after Congress approved $61 billion in assistance for Kyiv in April that had been held up for months due to partisan wrangling. The move will also put renewed pressure on the European Union to drop its objections to utilizing the immobilized Russian assets.
When asked about this type of proposal in which the US, or a subset of G-7 countries, put up the aid money, which the EU would repay using the frozen assets, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “it’s something we’re discussing.”
“Ideally, this is something we would like the entire G-7 to participate in, be part of, not just have the United States doing it alone,” she told Bloomberg in an interview in Sedona, Arizona, Friday.
MILITARY & TECH
UK confirms delivery of additional AS90 howitzers and armored vehicles to Ukraine.
In a recent parliamentary session, British Minister of State for Defence, James Cartlidge, outlined the specific armored vehicles and artillery systems that will comprise a substantial new military aid package to Ukraine. This detail follows Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's April 23, 2024, pledge to provide Ukraine with the largest single package of military equipment ever dispatched from the UK. ARG reports.
Minister Cartlidge revealed that the UK will provide over 400 combat and armored vehicles to Ukraine. Reports vary but Ukraine is expected to receive an additional 32 to 50 AS-90 155mm self propelled howitzers.
The UK is in the process of replacing the AS-90 with the state of the art Swedish Archer system
Italy Provides Ukraine's Second SAMP/T, Transferred From Slovakia
The new military aid package from Italy to Ukraine will include an additional SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile system; it will become the second such unit in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The first one was supplied in summer 2023 by the joint efforts of France and Italy, after three months of negotiations started in October 2022. This time, Italy will supply the system alone and without long talks. Defense Express reports.
The announcement of the new aid package is expected on June 13, before the G7 meeting in Puglia, La Repubblica reports. The package will also include artillery systems and ammunition. As noted by the Italian journalists, the transfer of SAMP/T became possible due Rome's decision to withdraw one of these SAMs deployed in Slovakia, which came to light in March 2024.
Rome's decision to hand over SAMP/T is fully reasonable and the only correct way to react to Slovakian PM Robert Fico's pro-russian policy
Ukraine to Receive Six Powerful TRML-4D Air Defense Radars
The German company Hensoldt has announced the delivery of six more of its powerful TRML-4D radar stations to Ukraine, which are to be manufactured as part of a comprehensive order worth 100 million euros within this year. It should be noted that such orders are traditionally paid for by the German government. Defense Express reports.
According to its public report on the arms provided, Ukraine has already been supplied with nine TRML-4D air defense radars, which are counted separately from the IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile system, of which three units have been delivered so far.
It is entirely possible that Ukraine has already received a total of 12 of these radar stations, some of which are operating as part of anti-aircraft missile systems, while the majority are serving as surveillance radar stations.
Moreover, thanks to the fact that we are talking about a modern digital model, all stations and other modern digital radars can automatically exchange information in real-time within a single network.
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