UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-30
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on May 29 stated that day 827 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 102 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 43 air strikes, 364 drone strikes and 2,683 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force, missile troops and artillery hit 14 occupiers' live force concentration areas.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of May 30, 2024, the Russian occupiers launched a missile and air strike against military facilities and critical infrastructure of Ukraine using 8 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles in the Kharkiv Region, 11 Kh-101/X- 555 of strategic aircraft Tu-95 MS (launch area Saratov Region - Russian Federation) and 32 strike UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type from Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation. and Cape Chauda (Crimea).
Anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, mobile fire groups and radio-electronic warfare units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the enemy's air attack. As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 7 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 32 "Shahed-131/136" attack UAVs were shot down in Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhya, Odesa, Kherson, Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 7 attacks in the area of the villages of Lyptsi, Starytsia and Vovchansk on this front. The situation is under control.
Kupyansk axis: Russia conducted 13 assaults in this direction over the last day in the vicinity of Sinkivka, Petropavlívka, Novoselivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novoegorivka and Nevske.
Lyman axis: 5 assaults took place in the vicinity of Terny, Torske and the Serebryanskyy Forest. Ukrainian forces are taking measures to strengthen their defenses.
Siversk axis: The situation on this front has not experienced significant changes.
Kramatorsk axis: The situation on this front has not experienced significant changes.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: In this direction there were 23 combat engagements over the last day in the area of Sokil, Novoselivka Persha and Nevelske. Ukrainian defenders are taking active measures to stabilize the environment.
Kurakhove axis: The situation on this front has not experienced significant changes.
Vremika axis: The situation on this front has not experienced significant changes.
Orikhiv axis: The situation on this front has not experienced significant changes.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation on this front has not experienced significant changes.
HUR: Ukrainian sea drones sink two Russian naval boats
Overnight on 30 May, Ukrainian naval drones, operated by special unit Group 13 of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), hit two Russian patrol boats, tentatively KS-701 Tunets (“Tuna”), near Chornomorske in the west of occupied Crimea, using Magura V5 strike marine drones, HUR said in a statement reported by Euromaidan Press
With Ukraine’s Navy virtually non-existent, Ukraine employs missiles and the newly-created fleet of various maritime suicide drones to counter Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea. These tactics led to the destruction or severe damage to at least 18 vessels of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including the sinking of the Moskva, the Fleet’s flagship, early in the all-out war.
“In order to neutralize the attack marine drones on the approach to the Vuzka Bay (in Chornomorske, – Ed.), the Russian occupiers in Crimea took combat aircraft into the sky 32 times, including Su-27/30/35, MiG-29, Be-12, An-26 aircraft, and Ka-27/29 and Mi-8 helicopters. The invaders also chaotically used small arms and 30-mm cannons,”
— HUR official statement
The video, shared by the HUR, shows drones evading Russia gunship helicopter fire during the daytime, and hitting one of the Russian patrol boats at night.
Russian propaganda sources claim that 4 Russian boats, 2 ferries and a pilot boat were damaged or destroyed during the attack.
Shrapnel from a downed missile damaged the Mechta pilot boat at the Kerch ferry crossing. The vessel crashed and sank. ASTRA noted that the crew members managed to leave the boat and were unharmed.
In addition to the Mechta boat, the Conro Trader and the Avangard ferries were damaged. The latter ran aground due to damage, ASTRA sources in the emergency services of the occupied region said.
In addition, four KS-701 transport amphibious boats were damaged, the destruction of two of which has already been reported by Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Rescuers in Kharkiv receive firefighting and rescue tools from UN
Rescuers of the Kharkiv region received help from the public organization "Proliska" State Emergency Services reports.
This is modern special emergency and rescue equipment, tools, heat-reflective clothing and other equipment.
The transfer of aid became possible thanks to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, with the financial support of the Humanitarian Fund for Ukraine and with the assistance of the head of the Kharkiv OVA Oleg Synegubov.
The provided equipment will help the rescuers to respond more effectively to emergency events and quickly eliminate their consequences under constant enemy fire, saving people and property.
Photos courtesy of State Emergency Services
Installation of six mini thermal power plants approved in Kyiv
Deputy Mayor and Secretary of the Kyiv City Council Volodymyr Bondarenko announced on May 26 that Kyiv City Council has approved the installation of 6 mini thermal power plants (TPPs) in the capital. They will be located on both the right and left banks of Kyiv. Ukrasinska Pravda reported.
He said that there will be no special placement for these mini TPPs: they will be located in places where many people reside.
"We have individual boiler rooms, which can be one per several buildings or one per a house. [Mayor] Vitalii Klitschko has already given a corresponding order, and we will think about a certain programme for apartment buildings so that they install individual boilers and individual generators," Bondarenko said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his efforts to prepare the Russian population for a protracted war effort.
The US think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its May 29 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that Putin stated during a meeting of Russia's Council for Strategic Development and National Projects and the State Council commission for socio-economic development on May 29 that all Russians must understand that they are living through a unique and historical moment and must "work as if [they are] on the frontline" and "feel mobilized" for Russia to achieve its goals.
Kremlin officials often invoke the mythos of the Great Patriotic War (Second World War) to inspire support and confidence in Russia's war effort. Putin likely intended to invoke similar memories of Soviet sacrifice and full-scale social and economic mobilization.
ISW previously assessed that Putin's decision to appoint Andrei Belousov as Russian Defense Minister was a significant development in his efforts to mobilize Russia's economy for a protracted war effort against Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO, and Putin will likely continue various informational and rhetorical efforts to prepare Russian society for greater economic mobilization if he intends to pursue such an unpopular policy of further economic and social mobilization in the mid- to long-term.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Scholz tiptoes toward allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with German weapons
Berlin is cautiously shifting its stance to allow Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons for defensive actions against Russia, including hitting military targets inside Russian territory, Politico reports.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US has provided military aid to Ukraine but repeatedly asked them not to fire US-made weapons into Russian territory, fearing an escalation of the war. However, several European leaders, including NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and French President Emmanuel Macron, have called on President Biden to lift these restrictions.
On 28 May, Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled this move, saying Ukraine can use German arms “within the framework of international law” against an aggressor like Russia, including inside Russian territory.
That wasn't quite as clear as other countries have been on the topic.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke alongside Scholz on Tuesday, said: "We have to allow [Ukrainians] to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired, but not other civilian or military targets," adding a limit that's not in line with what Kyiv wants.
Some Nations like Poland and Canada left even less ambiguity, with Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk stating "Polish weapons sent to Ukraine have no limits. Ukrainians can use them as they see fit," and Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Jolie stating “Canada does not have any conditions for supplying weapons to Ukraine”
Berlin moved on Wednesday to clear up confusion about what Scholz meant to say.
Scholz's spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told reporters that Ukraine's "defensive action is not limited to one's own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor," while also stressing that he could not reveal precise agreements with Kyiv on using German weapons as they are "confidential."
Hebestreit further argued that a year-old statement by Scholz, in which he said there was a "consensus" that Ukraine would not use German weapons on Russian soil, had been "a statement of facts" that was true at that moment but did not necessarily apply to the future.
Peace Summit preparations underway amid Russian threats
As the Peace Summit draws near, President Zelenskyy underscored the global unity against Russian destabilization efforts. He highlighted the extensive preparations and diplomatic initiatives aimed at ensuring the success of the summit. Euromaidan Press reports.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is preparing diplomatic responses to Russian attempts to undermine the Global Peace Summit, according to the President’s Office.
Switzerland will host the summit on 15-16 June. Ukraine is organizing it to establish a joint position on how to end Russia’s war based on Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula.
“Russia will no longer be able to disrupt the Summit, despite its intense efforts to achieve it. It is pressuring leaders and openly threatening various countries with destabilization. This is one of the consequences of the world giving the terrorist state too much time,” claimed the Ukrainian president.
Pressure Grows on Biden to Allow Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Territory
President Biden is edging toward what may prove to be one of his most consequential decisions in the Ukraine war: whether to reverse his ban on shooting American weapons into Russian territory. The New York Times reports.
He has long resisted authorizing Ukraine to use U.S. weapons inside Russia because of concern it could escalate into a direct American confrontation with a nuclear-armed adversary.
Now, after months of complaints about the restrictions from Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, the White House has begun a formal — and apparently rapid — reassessment of whether to take the risk. Approving further uses of U.S. weapons would give Kyiv a way to conduct counterattacks on artillery and missile sites that now enjoy something of a safe haven just inside Russia.
On Wednesday, in Moldova, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken became the first administration official to publicly leave open the possibility that the Biden administration might “adapt and adjust” its stance about attacking inside Russia with American weapons, based on changing battlefield conditions.
“We’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself,” Mr. Blinken said.
Even before Mr. Blinken spoke publicly on Wednesday, Mr. Biden was coming under enormous pressure from his allies. The usually cautious outgoing leader of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, told The Economist in an interview published late last week that Ukraine’s losses of territory near Kharkiv could only be countered if Ukraine was free to take out artillery and missile launchers and command posts on the Russian side of the border.
MILITARY & TECH
Swedish government clarifies: Ukraine to receive 2 AEW&C aircraft
Further to the story we reported on yesterday Tom Samuelsson, spokesperson for the Swedish PM, clarified on Twitter that Ukraine will actually receive two ASC 890 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft within the largest aid package from Sweden.
Samuelsson reminded that the total value of the announced package amounts to €1.16 billion. "The package includes two Airborne Surveillance and Control aircrafts (ACS890), helping Ukraine to identify targets at long range," he noted.
Ukrainian Navy corvette embarks on sea trials
On May 29, the first Turkish built Ada-class corvette for the Ukrainian Navy, named after Hetman Ivan Mazepa, began sea trials. Corresponding reports and photographs have already appeared on social media. Defense Express reports.
From the time this ship was launched in October 2022 to its first sea trials, a year and a half has passed, and this is an important step in the promising strengthening of Ukraine's Defense Forces.
But this also raises the following questions: what armament does the Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette have, and is there a place for such ships in modern naval warfare, where maritime drones are gradually gaining the upper hand?
The photographs allow us to assess that the Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette is already equipped with at least artillery armament. A 76mm Leonardo Super Rapid naval gun and a 35mm Aselsan Gokdeniz anti-aircraft artillery system have been installed. There is currently no clarity regarding other weapon systems on this ship.
In August 2023, there were already some hints in the public domain about the possible armament on the Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette, as stated in a video interview with the Commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Oleksiy Neizhpapa.
For example, he mentioned 2x4 launchers for Harpoon or Neptune anti-ship missiles, 21 vertical launch systems for RIM-116 surface-to-air missiles, and 76-mm and 35-mm artillery installations. And also about the possible use of Aselsan STAMP remotely controlled weapon stations and MU 90 lightweight torpedoes.
At the same time, there are grounds to expect that a similar set of armament will be present on the second ship of this project for the Ukrainian Navy, which has been named Hetman Pavlo Skoropadskyi.
The second Ada-class corvette began construction last year.
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