UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-13
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
ISW - Russian offensive operations meant to weaken support for Ukraine as opposed to any military objective.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Dec. 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that The US intelligence community reportedly shared a declassified intelligence assessment with Congress on December 12 wherein US intelligence assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine but have only resulted in heavy Russian losses and no operationally significant Russian battlefield gains.
Russia appears to believe that a military “deadlock” through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and give Russian forces the advantage despite high Russian losses and persistent Russian shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment.
ISW has assessed that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theatre-level initiative in Ukraine since at least mid-November 2023 and have now likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative.
The Russian military command’s decision to launch offensive efforts in fall 2023 may have been an opportunistic reaction to a perceived wavering of Western support for Ukraine. The increased Western discussions about continuing military assistance to Ukraine following the relatively successful Russian defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast was predictable and may have factored into the Russian command’s calculations. The Kremlin has been orchestrating long running information operations aimed at deterring Western security assistance to Ukraine, and the Russian command may have determined that those information operations were yielding increasing returns and that Russian military efforts to seize the initiative could prompt further Western debates about aid to Ukraine.
Russian forces have routinely conducted military operations in Ukraine aimed at shaping Western behaviour instead of achieving operational battlefield objectives, and the US intelligence assessment that ongoing Russian offensive operations do not have an immediate operational military objective is entirely plausible.
Russian forces have yet to seize the initiative throughout Ukraine, but Russian forces may attempt to pursue an immediate operational objective if they do seize the initiative. The Russian military command has also reportedly conducted offensive operations with domestic political goals in mind, and internal Kremlin dynamics may be influencing Russian military decisions about ongoing Russian offensive operations.
ISW is not offering an assessment of the primary intent of ongoing Russian offensive operations at this time but concurs with the US intelligence community assessment that Russia has absorbed very high losses without making operationally significant gains or setting conditions to make such gains.
Grumpy Assessment — I would like to draw your attention to a recent assessment by the Economist (covered in the Dec. 11 Ukraine War Daily Draft) of the Russian economy stating that Defence spending will be 6% of GDP this year, nearly double the previous year and the most its been since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Figures from Russia’s finance ministry suggest that fiscal stimulus is currently worth about 5% of gdp, a bigger boost than that implemented during the covid-19 pandemic. (some families of soldiers killed in action are receiving payouts equivalent to three decades of average pay).
Employment in Russia is close to 100% meaning, due to widespread conscription and casualties [US Intelligence places Russian casualties at 315,000 since Feb of 2022] there is literally no one left to assume new jobs required for the defence industry to replace the enormous losses of equipment Russia is experiencing through these offensives (reported elsewhere in today’s draft) that are showing no appreciable results. Since the beginning of 2022 its supply side has drastically shrunk. Hundreds of thousands of workers, often highly educated, have fled the country.
In the meantime Foreign investors have withdrawn around $250bn-worth of direct investment, nearly half the pre-war stock.
Russia is hurtling towards a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union, with no chance of victory on the ground all in the vain hope that the West will tire of supporting Ukraine.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report
THE HOME FRONT
53 injured as a result of missile strike in Kyiv
The State Emergency Service of Ukraine reports that as of 07:33, 53 people are known to have been injured in a Russian missile attack on the city of Kyiv, including 6 children and 18 adults, with 2 children hospitalised. All 10 missiles flying towards the capital were shot down. The ages of the victims range from 80 to 5.
Kyiv police reported that a total of four apartment buildings, four private residential buildings, and municipal buildings were damaged in the attack. It also damaged 19 personal vehicles, 4 of which were utterly destroyed.
IMF approves new USD 900 million tranche for Ukraine
The International Monetary Fund’s Board of Directors allocated a $900 million tranche for Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
During a working visit to the US, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva and discussed ways of external financing for Ukraine in 2024 and mobilisation of financial support for the country from international partners, the Presidential Office has reported.
The Ukrainian leader and Georgieva also discussed the development of an effective mechanism for using frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine, in particular as a source of alternative budgetary support and investment aimed at the reconstruction of the country.
Ukraine’s top mobile and bank companies suffer massive hacker attack
On the morning of 12 December, the largest Ukrainian telecommunications operator Kyivstar and one of the country’s leading banks Monobank came under a hacker attack.
Kyivstar is Ukraine’s largest mobile operator and one of the country’s biggest broadband Internet providers, with over 24 million mobile customers.
Before the hacker attack was officially confirmed, the company’s clients complained about network and internet outages from the early morning of 12 December. The hacker attack caused a technical failure, which made mobile communications and Internet access unavailable. The company assures that subscribers’ data has not been compromised.
Kyivstar CEO Oleksandr Komarov said it was unclear when connectivity would be fully restored, as the company’s IT infrastructure was been partially destroyed due to the hacker attack. He said that the aim of the attackers was to cause maximum damage to it. However, he added that the company has not detected any signs of user data leakage so far.
The data leakage possibility is important because, since 2017, Kyivstar has been cooperating with the Ministry of Economy, providing the government with statistical information. Before Russia’s invasion, this included calculating the movements of tourists in Ukraine and abroad.
Zelenskyy outlines Ukraine's goals for 2024 during his visit to US
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced Ukraine's specific goals for 2024 following a closed-door meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden.
"Our goals for 2024 are clear: to protect our people, reinforce our air defences, deprive [Russian] terrorists of air superiority, jointly produce weapons, further isolate Russia and utilise Russia's frozen assets."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
The Ukrainian president expressed his gratitude to the US president and all Americans "who value freedom as much as we do in Ukraine".
During a press conference in the United States, responding to a question about whether Ukraine is ready to cede territory for peace, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it absolute madness.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
U.S. intelligence assesses Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 casualties
A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday. Reuters reports.
The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armoured vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years, the source said. The Russian army began the war with 3,100 tanks, lost 2,200 of them and has had to "backfill" that force with T62 tanks produced in the 1970s, leaving it only 1,300 tanks on the battlefield, the source quoted the report as saying.
Kyiv treats its losses as a state secret and officials say disclosing the figure could harm its war effort. A New York Times report in August cited U.S. officials as putting the Ukrainian death toll at close to 70,000.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
How the Kremlin is using Wagner to launder billions in African gold
The Kremlin has earned more than US$2.5 billion from trade in African gold since Vladimir Putin launched his full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to a report released by the Blood Gold Group. The full report is available for download on the groups website.
Turning Blood Gold Into Cash
In CAR and Sudan, where Wagner-linked entities are already subject to international sanctions, Kremlin actors rely on complex smuggling routes and corporate subterfuge tactics to extract large amounts of blood gold out of Africa to destinations such as Russia and the UAE where it can be mixed with other legitimate sources of gold and converted to cash.
In Mali, the Kremlin’s approach is designed to avoid sanctions. Blood Gold Report research shows that the four biggest mining companies operating in Mali – Barrick Gold Corporation, B2Gold, Resolute Mining and Allied Gold Corporation – continue to deliver millions in revenue to the military junta which seized control in May 2021, despite growing concerns about the humanitarian situation and documented human rights abuses including the Moura massacre where more than 500 civilians were killed by Malian troops together with Wagner mercenaries.
How to stop the Kremlin’s blood gold system
The Blood Gold Report recommends a suite of measures which, if taken collectively, can significantly hamper Wagner and Russia’s Blood Gold operations, and deliver a major financial blow to the Kremlin, to the benefit of African security and the defence of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy – If Hungary blocks EU decision, it will mean Putin vetoed it
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a press conference in Oslo said he believes that if the EU fails to approve the decision to start accession talks with Ukraine because it is blocked by Hungary, it would mean that Russian President Vladimir Putin had directly vetoed the decision.
The president noted that Ukraine has done all it can to prevent any country from blocking the start of negotiations, but "there is a block from Hungary, and that is a fact".
"For our part, we have been very constructive; we have done everything, absolutely everything, complied with all the recommendations of the European Commission, all the recommendations of our partners, and all the recommendations for adapting even those laws that passed the Venice Commission conclusions.
This year, Russia has had no victories; they haven’t achieved anything. They haven’t been able to occupy a single village... But they’ve started working on countries, not only in Europe but also countries on many continents, and pressuring them. So if there is no positive result... if there is no positivity there, it will indicate that Putin has vetoed this decision,"
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy emphasised that the issue here is solely the resilience of EU countries and suggested that the absence of a positive outcome at the EU summit would be a victory for Russia, demonstrating that Russia can veto EU decisions.
MILITARY & TECH
NYT: US, Ukrainian military leaders work on new frontline strategy
American and Ukrainian military leaders are searching for a new strategy that they can begin executing early next year to revive Kyiv’s fortunes and flagging support for the country’s war against Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The New York Times reports
The push for a fresh approach comes after Ukraine’s monthslong counteroffensive failed in its goal of retaking territory lost to the invading Russian army and after weeks of often tense encounters between top American officials and their Ukrainian counterparts.
The United States is stepping up the face-to-face military advice it provides to Ukraine, dispatching a three-star general to Kyiv to spend considerable time on the ground. U.S. and Ukrainian military officers say they hope to work out the details of a new strategy next month in a series of war games scheduled to be held in Wiesbaden, Germany.
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
Norway donates more air defence to Ukraine
Norway has announced they will donate additional NASAMS air defence to Ukraine to a sum of 335 million kroner. Noko is sent from a storage facility to ensure fast delivery to Ukraine, while orders are made from the industry for late delivery. Ukraine relies on military support from allies and parties ahead to announce its opposition to the Russian aggression.
“Air Defense is a crucial part of Ukraine's defence. Ukrainian authorities are asking for more support for air protection, and prioritise this highly. This will be a major contribution to Ukraine's ability to defend itself. The Norwegian NASAMS system has high accuracy. It helped save Ukrainian lives and prevent the destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The air defence is also crucial for Ukraine's ability to protect its military departments”
— Bjorn Arild Gram, Norwegian Defense Minister
Since the need is urgent for Ukraine to put in place more air protection in the short term, the government has decided to donate additional NASAMS material from the Armed Forces' own needs. Heilskaplege's assessments of the consequences for the Armed Forces' operational ability and national emergency preparedness form the basis for all the fences to the government on donations of military material from the defence sector.
The pledged material can be sent in a relatively short time, and will be important to strengthen the air defence against Russian attacks in winter. These are demanding assessments, but Ukraine is in great need of support, and it is important for our common security that Russia does not win with its warfare.
U.S. Seems to Have Started Making FrankenSAM Systems with AIM-9M Missiles in Ukraine
Defense Express writes there are three signs indicating the U.S. has sent the first batch of components for making hybrid air defence systems with AIM-9M missiles in the latest package of military aid to Ukraine
The new package of military assistance for Ukraine announced in the United States on December 12th includes a notable addition — air defence system components.
This unusually labelled item, especially listed second in the announcement, is distinct from previous aid packages. Moreover, the equipment comes under the Presidential Drawdown program, allowing for direct withdrawal from the U.S. armed forces' stock without the need to wait for these "components" to be produced by American defence companies.
Additionally, the list includes a vaguely described item labelled "equipment to protect critical national infrastructure." Coupled with the transfer of AIM-9M missiles, these details suggest that the U.S. is likely providing components for the implementation of the FrankenSAM project, that is, for the creation of hybrid air defence systems in Ukraine.
While this only remains a speculative interpretation because it wasn't directly specified in the official announcement, the indications strongly suggest the transfer of components for the development of close-range air defence systems that will be able to intercept and neutralise air targets within a range of approximately 5 km with AIM-9M missile
These systems will be similar to the MIM-72 Chaparral, which employed a modified version of the AIM-9M air-to-air missile to shoot targets from a mobile ground-based launcher.
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