UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-23
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
Веселого Різдва, сезонних привітань і щасливого Нового року!
Merry Christmas, Seasons Greetings and a Happy New Year!
I wanted to let everyone know that from now through Boxing Day 2023-12-26 I will not be producing the Daily Draft I will be taking a break to enjoy some family time. If there is any important breaking news I will publish that. Regular publications will resume on 2023-12-27
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Issue of mice and rats on front line worsened by weather
The UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update dated Dec. 23 stated that Both Ukrainian and Russian troops have been suffering from an overwhelming influx of rats and mice in some parts of the contact line in recent weeks.
This year's mild autumn, coupled with ample food from fields left uncultivated due to the hostilities, has likely fuelled the growth in the rodent population, the review says.
As the weather turned colder, the animals are likely seeking shelter in military vehicles and defensive positions. UK Defence Intelligence says rodents exert additional pressure on soldiers' morale on the battlefield.
Furthermore, they pose a danger to military equipment by chewing through cables, as was recorded in the same area during World War II.
Unverified reports, the review notes, indicate that Russian troops have been suffering from a rise in illnesses that they blame on the rodent menace.
Air Force describes how it managed to destroy three Su-34s
Colonel Yurii Ihnat, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman explained on Armiia (Army) TV that three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers were caught during a risky manoeuvre – the Russian aircraft were trying to drop guided bombs deeper behind the contact line.
“Lightning fast and with high precision. Just the way the (Air Force) commander prefers. This is not the first time. It happened twice on the Bryansk front and in Odesa Oblast, when the enemy was caught by surprise.
The occupiers are already confirming it in their channels, wishing them (the Russian pilots – ed.) an 'eternal flight'. They say that they even managed to save someone from the scene.
Well, actually... They got cocky, came closer, tried to strike our troops with guided bombs deeper in the defence positions. You know that 500kg KABs can fly 20-25 kilometres into the depths of our defences (70 kilometres in total). But when you want to strike and are itching to strike, you have to fly closer. They took a risk – unsuccessfully. Hopefully, the Russians will take more such risks, and we will see more downed Russian Sushki [Su fighter-bombers – ed.]."
— Yurii Ihnat, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman
Frontline Report — Ukraine moves Patriot system closer to frontline
Euromaidan’s Frontline Report assesses following yesterdays news of three SU-34’s being shot down in the Kherson region that Ukrainian forces have likely relocated a Patriot air defence system, a move that will significantly diminish Russian aviation’s advantage in the skies over Kherson Oblast, where the Russian military frequently drops numerous air bombs on Ukrainian positions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Russia makes minor gains near Bakhmut
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Dec. 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that geolocated footage published on Dec. 22 indicates that Russian forces made recent gains south of Spirne (northeast of Bakhmut)
Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on Dec. 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut in the dacha areas near the Chornobylets gardening community and on Klishchiivka’s northwestern outskirts. Geolocated footage published on December 20 also showed that Ukrainian forces conducted positional engagements near the so-called ”Alebastrova” water feature east of Klishchiivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Marginal advances for Russia in the Avdiivka Sector
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Dec. 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces made recent marginal advances southeast and northwest of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage published on December 21 and December 22 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced northeast of Opytne (southwest of Avdiivka) and northeast of Stepove (northwest of Avdiivka).
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that positional engagements continued near Avdiivka itself; east of Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove, and near Stepove (all northwest of Avdiivka) in the industrial area and near the Vynohradnyky garden community (both southeast of Avdiivka); and near Nevelske and Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to Report.
THE HOME FRONT
Missile destroyed over Dnipro district
Explosions were heard near the city of Dnipro and citizens were urged to take cover on the afternoon of Dec. 23
Serhii Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, later reported that Ukrainian air defence forces had destroyed a missile over the Dnipro district.
This coupled with the loss of three Russian SU-34 fighter bombers over occupied Kherson yesterday are signs that Ukrainian air defence assets are improving in the southern Ukraine
Air defence downs all Russian drones launched in two oblasts
The Ukrainian Air Force announced that Ukrainian air defence downed all nine drones launched by the Russians over Odesa and Khmelnytskyi oblasts during an air raid on Dec. 22 - 23.
"From 18:00 on 22 December to midnight on 23 December 2023, Russian invaders launched Shahed attack UAVs from Balaklava in Crimea and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia."
— Spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Nothing to Report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Sadiq Khan backs down over ban on sending 4x4s to Ukraine
Mayor of London makes about-turn after Telegraph campaign and criticism of refusal to send cars in Ulez scrappage The Telegraph reports.
The London Mayor had, on Dec. 16 blocked cars that were Ulez non-compliant from being sent to the warzone, as he said the move would not benefit Londoners environmentally, economically and socially. A request had been made to do so by Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was Khan's predecessor as mayor of London, called the London mayor's refusal to hand over the cars to Ukraine "petty and ridiculous".
Now, in a victory for The Telegraph, Mr Khan has about-turned on his decision and appealed to Mark Harper, the Transport Secretary, to make it “possible for Londoners, and others across the country, to donate suitable vehicles to Ukraine through scrappage schemes”.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine will likely receive first batch of F-16s by end of year
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Dec. 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukraine will very likely receive the first batch of F-16s before the end of 2023. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed on December 22 during a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the Dutch government will prepare an initial 18 F-16 fighter jets for delivery to Ukraine. While Rutte did not confirm the timeline for F-16 delivery, a recent Estonian Ministry of Defense strategy document stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16s to Ukraine "before the end of the year [2023]
Ukraine seeks to expand battlefield tech with AI integration
From intelligence processing to autonomous weapons, Ukraine is pushing the development of AI systems Euromaidan reported.
Ukraine’s military strategy to counter Russia’s larger forces is shifting towards leveraging technological advantages. As Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi noted, the war “is gradually turning into a positional form,” prompting Ukraine to enhance innovative technologies on the battlefield.
Artificial intelligence (AI), already a staple in many Western defence departments, is now becoming a focal point of Ukraine’s military strategy. Despite the nascent stage of machine learning system development in Ukrainian defence forces, AI-powered weaponry is already visible on the frontlines, promising a future that could significantly alter the positional nature of warfare.
“Wars are won by technologies. Russians can mobilize millions for meat grinder assaults, and their factories beyond the Urals work in three shifts. Our advantage will be ensured by asymmetric responses possible thanks to innovations. We invent technologies, test, and scale them,”
— Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s Defense Minister
Ukraine’s Brave1 defense cluster aims to stimulate the development of defense technologies. In its seven months of existence, it has received over 780 applications from Ukrainian startups and provided 84 grants totaling $1.53 million. Brave1 focuses mainly on Mission-Support AI and Operational AI, aligning with RAND’s concept.
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