UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-17
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on May 16 stated that day 814 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 114 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missile strikes, 70 air strikes, 431 drone strikes and 2,800 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
In general, the situation on the frontline is controlled by the Defense Forces, there have been no significant changes in the environment.
Settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of May 17 the enemy attacked with 20 Shahed UAVsfrom the areas of primors ніko-akhtars чka and kursk (Russia).
Air defence involved anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and radio-electronic combat units.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, all 20 enemy "Shaheds" were shot downwithin Kharkiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Odessa and Mykolaiv oblasts were shot down.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 8 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Liptsi, Staritsa and Vovchansk of the Kharkiv region. The enemy continues attempts to break through the defenses of Ukrainian units in the Shebekino-Vovchansk direction.
The situation in the settlement of vovchansk is controlled.
Kupyansk axis: Defense Forces successfully repelled 6 attacks of the opponent. In some areas, our troops carry out tactical improvement measures. Another engagement is currently ongoing in the Berestove area
Lyman axis: The enemy unsuccessfully tried to break through the defenses of our troops 8 times throughout the day.
Siversk axis: Four attacks of the enemy were repelled in the northern direction. The fight is ongoing in the direction Vyimka. In the course of the defense, the loss of positions is not allowed, the situation is controlled.
Kramatorsk axis: Russian attackers made 13 attempts to break through the defense of Ukrainian forces. Two attacks of the enemy continue in the area of Klíschiivka and Andriyivka. The situation is under control.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: There were 35 attacks of the opponent. In some areas, in the course of fighting as a result of intense fire influence and assault actions of the enemy. The fighting is ongoing in the area of the Novooleksandrivka settlement.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy made 12 attempts to break through the Ukrainian defenders.
Vremika axis: The enemy made 9 unsuccessful attempts to improve their tactical position in the areas of the settlements Urozhayne and Staromayorske. The situation is under control.
Orikhiv axis: Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Defense forces repelled 9 unsuccessful attacks of the opponent in the direction of Oleshky and Krynky.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine and Poland immediately start preparing security agreement
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk agreed in a telephone conversation on 16 May to immediately begin preparing a bilateral security agreement. Zelenskyy reported on Twitter
The president also noted that the two discussed the threat posed by Russia to gas infrastructure in the west of Ukraine and ways to counter it.
"We also directed our teams to begin working on the bilateral security agreement text right away. Such an agreement between historical partners must be as ambitious as possible," Zelenskyy concluded.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian Ambassador to Warsaw Vasyl Zvarych stated that interagency coordination of the security agreement text was underway in Poland and that the draft should be handed over to the Ukrainian side in the coming days.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine attacks Russia’s oil facilities at eastern Black Sea coast
Overnight on 17 May, a significant drone attack targeted two Russian port towns in Krasnodar Krai—Tuapse and Novorossiysk—on the eastern Black Sea coast, according to social media and local Russian officials. The attack once again struck Tuapse’s oil refinery and damaged at least two oil storage tanks in the Novorossiysk port. Euromaidan Press reported.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that its air defenses allegedly “destroyed and intercepted” 102 drones, with 51 of UAVs in occupied Crimea, 44 in Krasnodar Krai, and six drone boats in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has been conducting an ongoing drone strike campaign targeting fuel and energy facilities in Russia, including power substations and oil refineries, using domestic unmanned systems. The campaign, particularly active since the beginning of this year, has affected multiple regions. Responsibility for some of these incidents has been unofficially claimed by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and military intelligence. The strikes are likely aimed at degrading Russian military logistics and oil product exports to undermine the profits that fuel the war effort.
Grumpy here - It should be noted that the Russian Defence Ministry has claimed that 108 Ukrainian UAVs and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) attacked the territory of Russia and temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 16-17 May and that all of them have been supposedly downed or destroyed. It seems they may have exaggerated somewhat…
UK Defense Intelligence Analyses Russia’s Defense Leadership Overhaul
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 17 Intelligence Update stated that in a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, with Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrushev has been appointed a Presidential Aide. Shoigu and Patrushev are influential and long-term allies of Russian President Putin.
Belousov is a professional economist with no military background. He was First Deputy Prime Minister from January 2020, and prior to that served as a Presidential Aide for economic issues. It is likely that he has been appointed to ensure greater efficiency in defence spending and to ensure closer coordination between defence industries and the needs of the Armed Forces.
This is likely to prove extremely challenging for Andrei Belousov given the high degrees of corruption in the Russian MOD and Armed Forces. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, and the head of personnel General-Lieutenant Yury Kuznetsov was arrested on May 14, 2024 on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scheme.
The change of Defense Minister is highly unlikely to have a major immediate impact on the prosecution of the Russian war in Ukraine. With Putin also announcing that there will be no changes to senior appointments in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, the current Russian approach to the war is likely to continue.
I have a genuine question, seeing that Shoigu was a civilian and never served in the Russian armed forces, whats with the uniform, and what are all those medals for?
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russia sought Ukraine’s capitulation, not peace in 2022 talks, says Poland’s ex State Secretary
Jakub Kumoch, former Secretary of State to Polish President Andrzej Duda, revealed in an interview with Polska Times that Russia’s goal in Ukraine-Russia negotiations in 2022 was not to achieve lasting peace but to force Ukraine’s capitulation.
This news comes as the recent Foreign Affairs article suggested that Ukraine withdrew from an allegedly nearly finalized peace agreement with Russia in 2022 under Western influence. Kumoch addressed this article by mentioning that it included some narratives similar to Russian propaganda claims.
The negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place in Belarus and Türkiye in spring 2022, soon after the start of the full-scale war. Kumoch accompanied the Ukrainian delegation during these negotiations, according to Polska Times.
Kumoch revealed that in mid-March, the Ukrainians received a draft peace agreement from Russia, which he described as “peculiar.” The document, prepared by Russia before the invasion, according to Kumoch, included such points as:
recognizing Crimea’s annexation
granting independence to the eastern regions of Ukraine
limiting the size of the Ukrainian army
making the Russian language the second official in Ukraine
“eternal neutrality”
banning NATO membership
“There were also purely humiliating elements, such as an obligation to carry out denazification or to introduce the cult of the Great Patriotic War, as the Russians call their contribution to World War II,” Kumoch added.
US announces new sanctions over North Korea-Russia arms transfers
The United States announced sanctions on Thursday on two Russian individuals and three Russian companies for facilitating arms transfers between Russia and North Korea, including ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine. Reuters reported.
It is the latest round of sanctions imposed by the Treasury and State departments to disrupt and expose arms transfers between the two countries, a Treasury Department statement said.
"Today's action reflects our commitment to disrupt the DPRK’s (Democratic People's Republic of North Korea) deepening military cooperation with Russia. The United States will continue to take action to hold accountable those who seek to facilitate the shipment of weapons and other materiel to enable Russia's war," Brian Nelson, the under secretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in the statement.
The US also announced that it was seeking information about three North Korean workers linked to the Communist country's Munitions Industry Department and an American accomplice involved in a scheme to secure illicit IT work with U.S. firms and government agencies.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Russia had already used upwards of 40 North Korean-produced ballistic missiles against Ukraine, as well as munitions, importing them in contravention of United Nations resolutions.
He called the deepening North Korea-Russia relationship "a wide-ranging threat to global security and the international non-proliferation regime." He called on others in the international community to join the effort to counter it.
EU sanctions four Russian media outlets to combat Russian propaganda
The European Union has added four more Russian state media outlets to the 14th sanctions list in response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Euromaidan Press reports.
Previous EU sanctions resulted in the loss of broadcasting rights within the EU of some Russian propagandist media, such as Sputnik and RT.
RIA Novosti is a Russian state-owned domestic news agency, run by the Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today) media group owned and operated by the Russian government.
Izvestia and Rossiyskaya Gazeta are daily Russian newspapers. The Izvestia has been sanctioned by Canada since last November. The Rossiyskaya Gazeta is an official government gazette
Voice of Europe was an EU-based Czech-registered news site funded by Putin’s crony, Viktor Medvedchuk. In March, Czech intelligence services said the outlet was used to spread anti-Ukrainian propaganda and bribe EU politicians at the direction of Medvedchuk. Later, Slovakia granted temporary protection to Artem Marchevskyi who oversaw the Voice of Europe’s operations.
All four outlets are engaged in disseminating official Russian state propaganda
These outlets are “under the permanent direct or indirect control of the leadership of the Russian Federation,” the EU Council stated, adding that they are essential and instrumental in bringing forward and supporting Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and for the destabilization of its neighboring countries.
In response to the proposed sanctions, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova “warned” that if the EU adopts these measures, Russia will respond “immediately and very painfully” against Westerners.
MILITARY & TECH
Denmark bolsters Ukraine’s air defence with new military aid package
On 16 May, the Danish government announced the 18th donation package for Ukraine worth 5.6 billion kroner ($815 million), with almost half of it allocated to air defence. The Danish Ministry of Defence reported.
This news comes as Denmark is about to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this summer that can help counter Russia’s air superiority at the frontline. Currently, Ukrainian F-16 pilots are undergoing training in Denmark, the UK, and the US.
Almost half of the new aid package will go towards air defence, which Ukraine urgently needs amid continuous Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities, according to the Danish Ministry of Defense.
A portion of the funds will contribute to the capabilities of the upcoming F-16 fighter jet donations, which Ukraine intends to receive this summer. Additional funds will be reserved for direct investments in the Ukrainian defense industry, according to Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
US Considers Sending Ukraine Another Patriot Missile Battery
The Biden administration is working to send an additional Patriot air-defence battery to Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said, as the US and its allies scramble to meet the country’s demand for more weapons to repel an intensified Russian assault. Bloomberg reports.
The US is seeking to send a single battery along with radars, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Ukraine’s European allies are also working on plans to send Kyiv additional air-defence systems from their stocks, the people said.
This week in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Secretary of State Antony Blinken that his country needed two Patriot systems just for Kharkiv, the location of a new Russian offensive.
A Patriot battery includes radars and control stations to identify, track and target enemy weapons, missile launchers and support vehicles. The system’s missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp., while Raytheon Technologies Corp. makes the radar and ground-control elements of the system.
“Patriots and other sophisticated air defences – they do more than protect soldiers and save civilian lives,” Blinken said in a speech in Kyiv on Tuesday. “They create umbrellas of safety under which Ukrainian workers and entrepreneurs can adapt, innovate, build, and attract more foreign investment.”
The US has been nudging allies to send Patriots to Ukraine as “a matter of utmost priority,” Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said Monday.
“And beyond Patriots, we’re looking for other systems, as well, because we believe that there are a number of allies who have capabilities they could share and ways in which the United States could help them with their air defense needs as a backfill,” Sullivan said.
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