UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-04
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 04 stated that it was The six hundred and eightieth day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 58 combat clashes took place. In total, the enemy carried out 7 rocket and 58 air strikes, carried out 57 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas. As a result of Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Residential buildings, other civil and industrial infrastructure were destroyed and damaged.
Ukraine and Russia in 'biggest prisoner swap' so far
Ukraine and Russia have exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war, in what is being described by officials in Kyiv as the biggest swap of the war. BBC News reported.
Ukraine said 230 prisoners, including serving members of the armed forces and border guard, had been freed from Russian captivity. In exchange, 248 Russians were released by Ukraine in the deal, mediated by the United Arab Emirates. It is the first major prisoner exchange since last August.
"Our people are home," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on social media. "Today, we brought back over 200 warriors and civilians from Russian captivity."
In a statement, the Russian Ministry of Defence said negotiations had been "difficult".
The two countries have exchanged prisoners on a number of occasions since the start of Russia's full-scale war in February 2022, but the Ukrainian leader said last month that the process had slowed down for Russia's own "very specific reasons". Images showing the prisoner releases were posted separately by Russian and by Ukrainian officials. A video released by Moscow showed some of the freed Russians smiling on a bus.
Ukraine said their freed soldiers included seven defenders of Snake Island, a rocky outcrop in the Black Sea.
More than 220 Russians have surrendered so far via I Want to Live program
Ukraine’s military intelligence unit (HUR) reported that as of December, more than 220 Russian soldiers had given themselves up through the hotline, the Financial Times reports Vitaliy Matvienko, a spokesperson for HUR’s department for prisoners of war, told the Financial Times. More than 1,000 other cases were pending, Matvienko added, disclosing both figures for the first time.
One of the more celebrated cases is that of Russian lieutenant Daniil Alfyorov who surrendered through the program. The Moscow military school graduate also helped 11 Russian troops fighting under his command in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region to do the same.
The FT listened to a recording of one of the calls, which begins: “Hello, you called the hotline of the defence intelligence of Ukraine. Do you want to live?”
“Hello, yes,” came the answer. “Someone gave me this number. Can you help me surrender?”
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
In the Kupyansk direction, The GSAFU reports that over the previous 24 hours the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions in the Kupyansk direction.
In the Lyman direction,The GSAFU reports that Russian occupiers, after suffering losses, are regrouping and preparing for offensive operations. At the same time, in this direction, the enemy is actively using aviation to strike with guided aerial bombs.
In the Bakhmut direction. The GSAFU reports that Defense Forces repulsed 4 attacks near Bohdanivka and Andriivka, Donetsk region, where the enemy unsuccessfully tried to improve the tactical position. The enemy carried out an airstrike in the area of the village of Severnye, Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, in particular, Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, Mykolaivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, New York of the Donetsk region.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
On the Avdiivka Front. The GSAFU reports that the AFU repulsed 9 enemy attacks in the Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka districts and another 19 - near Severny, Pervomaisky and Nevelsky, Donetsk region. Here, the invaders, with the support of aviation, unsuccessfully tried to improve the tactical position.
On the Marinka Front.The GSAFU reports that defence Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the districts of Georgiyevka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk region, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, unsuccessfully tried to assault Ukrainian positions 11 times.
In the Robtyne direction. The GSAFU reports that Ukrainian Forces repelled an enemy attack near Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhya region, where the enemy unsuccessfully tried to restore the lost position. The occupiers launched an airstrike in the area of the settlement of Novodarivka, Zaporizhzhya region.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
In the Kherson direction, the GSAFU reports that the Russians continue to attempt to drive Ukrainian units from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper. During the previous day Russia carried out 8 unsuccessful assaults, but Ukrainian soldiers continue to hold their positions and inflict significant losses on the enemy.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia has destroyed or damaged 1,692 medical facilities since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Health released a report that stated during almost two years of full-scale war, many Ukrainian hospitals, maternity hospitals, clinics, outpatient clinics and other medical facilities were severely damaged or destroyed by Russian rockets.
In particular, the Russians completely destroyed 195 facilities of medical institutions — it is impossible to restore them. Another 1,497 — facilities were damaged. The medical infrastructure of Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolayiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Dnieper, and Kherson regions suffered the most. Information on the Luhansk region cannot be obtained in full.
In addition, during this time, the Russian army damaged 103 emergency vehicles, another 253 — destroyed and 125 cars seized.
The enemy continues to systematically fire on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including medical ones. Each projectile and rocket is a testament to Russia's terror against civilians and civilian objects.
Nevertheless, work on rebuilding medical infrastructure is underway in Ukraine. In particular, these are objects that have suffered minor damage: broken windows, doors, damaged facade or roof, etc.
451 medical facilities have already been completely restored, another 404 — have been partially restored. The largest — in Mykolayiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions.
Mobile Fire Groups are amazingly effective
Ukraine’s Joint Forces Commander, Lt-Gen Serhii Naiev, reported that mobile fire groups were responsible for the destruction of 50% of Russian suicide drones and 20% of Russian missiles in Ukraine’s north during Russia’s massive air attack against Ukraine on 2 January.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine’s Intelligence confirms destroying another Russian SU-34
Ukraine’s military intelligence confirmed the destruction by sabotage of a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber at Shagol airbase near Chelyabinsk, Russia.
According to a statement from the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the incident occurred overnight on 4 January 2024.
The destroyed plane belonged to the 21st Mixed Aviation Division of the Russian Air Force. Ukraine’s intelligence didn’t provide further details on the circumstances surrounding the fighter jet catching fire, only stating that “the causes of the ignition of the aircraft are being clarified.”
Russia’s newly created special “security” structure acquires more signs of paramilitary structure.
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 04 Intelligence Update stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin approved establishing the Moscow Government Security Force (MGSF), a new paramilitary organisation intended to guard the capital’s infrastructure.
The MGSF represents the latest example of “paramilitarisation” in Russia: the proliferation of armed groups outside the regular military structure, the UK intel said.
Since July 2023, the MGSF has taken on an increasingly paramilitary character, with a remit to use firearms. The force has likely attracted several thousand recruits so far out of a planned strength of 15,000 personnel.
MGSF’s expansion is a response to concerns about the preparedness of Moscow’s local security forces. This follows incidents in June 2023 when advancing troops affiliated with the Wagner Group encountered little resistance.
The British intel said that the creation of the MGSF provides an opportunity for Moscow residents to volunteer for “patriotic” wartime duties while avoiding frontline service in Ukraine. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin has shielded the capital’s population from the brunt of the conflict, in contrast to the poorer provincial regions that have shouldered most Russian casualties.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
NATO to hold emergency meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in response to Russia's massive attacks on Ukraine
NATO has supported Ukraine's request for an extraordinary NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in response to Russia's mass air strikes. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made the announcement.
"One of the key topics will be strengthening Ukraine's air defence. An important sign of Euro-Atlantic unity in the face of Russian terror escalation," Kuleba wrote.
The Minister did not specify the exact date of the meeting. Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia had fired at least 500 missiles and drones at Ukraine in five days.
It will be recalled that on the night of Dec. 29, Russia launched one of the most massive attacks on Ukrainian territory, firing 158 drones and missiles. 53 people were killed, and 170 people were injured.
On the morning of Jan. 2, the Russian army launched another massive attack against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, air defence forces shot down 10 of 10 X-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, 59 of 70 X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise missiles, and three of three Kalibr cruise missiles.
The strikes killed at least five people. Four were in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, and one in Kharkiv. A total of 130 people were injured.
MILITARY & TECH
Norway announces F-16s and instructors for Ukrainian pilot training
On Jan. 03 Reuters reported. Norway announced it will be sending two dual seat F-16s and has already sent ten instructors to Denmark to train Ukrainian fighter pilots.
These aircraft will join others from Denmark and the Netherlands on their mission to train and equip the Ukrainian Air Force with the US made F-16 multirole aircraft. The UK, USA, France and other allies are also taking part in the program.
The Norwegian air force has replaced its own F-16s with the successor model F-35.
AFU shows off its Archer SPG
An amazing photograph was released by the AFU of a Swedish Archer 155mm howitzer Self Propelled Gun firing taken with a special lens to capture the projectile in flight. The shell is travelling at at least 600 m/s. The Archer is one of the world's most advanced SPGs and is virtually immune to counter battery fire.
The Archer is automated and is capable of firing precision munitions. The vehicle can reach road speeds of up to 90 kilometres per hour (56 mph), is capable of traversing snow up to a depth of one metre (3.3 ft)
A large hydraulically operated stabilizer is installed in the rear of the chassis and is lowered with the vehicle in the selected firing position. The initial deployment time and the redeployment times are less than 30 seconds. The system provides precision strike and high sustained firepower for support and for deep firing operations with more than 25 t of ammunition per gun and 24-hour operation.
The howitzer has a continuous fire rate of 75 rounds per hour, an intensive fire rate of 20 rounds (i.e., a full magazine) in 2.5 minutes and a salvo fire rate of three rounds in 15 seconds). The MRSI capability, multiple round simultaneous impact, is up to 6 rounds. Direct-sighting can be used for target ranges up to 2,000 metres (2,200 yd).
Grumpy adds —In practical use the Archer can stop, deploy, acquire the target, fire a three round burst, stow the gun away and be moving within 74 seconds. Before the first fired round hits the ground
Ukraine’s naval drones can now engage in sea battles, not only carry explosives
The use of unmanned naval vehicles in naval warfare is evolving rapidly, and Ukraine remains at the forefront.
Ukraine’s Security Service has developed a new generation of armed naval drones that can not only carry explosive payloads but also open fire on enemy targets, according to a report by the Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda, citing anonymous sources.
With its unique naval drones, Ukraine, a country without a Navy, has revolutionised naval warfare itself and forced Russian warships to retreat from occupied Crimea. However, their new capability to initiate gunfire opens a new era in remote warfare.
The combat capabilities of the new drones have allegedly been increased several times over, with the explosive payload rising from 108kg to 850kg. The drones also reportedly utilise top-of-the-line communications systems costing over $300,000 each, and their hulls are made of radar-invisible materials.
Russia Moves Forward With Plans to Buy Iranian Ballistic Missiles
The Wall Street Journal reports Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s infrastructure at a critical moment in the conflict, U.S. officials said.
Moscow’s plans have provoked deep concern within the Biden administration and come as support wanes in Congress for continued U.S. military assistance for Ukraine. Lawmakers have yet to pass a bill that would provide additional funding for Ukraine.
Moscow in recent weeks has also begun receiving ballistic missiles from North Korea
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!