UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-23
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Aug 22 stated that day 911 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 135 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 49 air strikes, 556 drone strikes and more than 3,300 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Russian aviation operations have significantly decreased
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that the tempo of Russian aviation operations is reportedly decreasing throughout most of the theatre, although this decreased tempo may be temporary, and its cause is unclear.
Spokespeople for Ukrainian brigades operating in the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions both reported a general decrease in the number of glide bomb strikes and decreased Russian aviation activity on August 22. The spokesperson for the Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction suggested that Russian aircraft shortages and Ukrainian air defence capabilities in this sector of the front may be prompting the Russian military to decrease aviation activity.
ISW has not yet observed confirmation of decreased Russian aviation operations in the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions. Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev reported on August 18 that Russian forces conducted 30 to 40 strikes per day in the Kharkiv direction a few weeks ago but have decreased the number of glide bomb strikes to roughly one to four strikes per day in the previous several days.
Data available from NASA FIRMS may partially corroborate Sarantsev's statements about the tempo of Russian aviation operations in the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian Northern Operational Command Spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk stated on August 15 that Russian forces launched half as many glide bombs against Sumy Oblast as compared to August 14, although it is unclear if the decreased tempo of Russian glide bomb strikes against Sumy Oblast will persist.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of August 23, 2024, the enemy attacked with two "Iskander-M" /KN -23 ballistic missiles from the Voronezh region and 16 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type (launching areas - Yeisk, Kursk - Russian Federation).
As a result of anti-aircraft combat by aviation, electronic warfare units and calculations of mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, 14 "martyrs" were shot down. Two more - lost in location, information about the destruction was not received.
Anti-aircraft defense worked in Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Sumy regions.
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukraine continues to advance in Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian efforts to stop these advances on August 22. Geolocated footage published on August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced into eastern Komarovka (south of Korenevo and east of Sudzha), although Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the area.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces operating northeast of Korenevo seized Semyonovka and advanced into southern Levshinka and that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced within northern Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).[25] Additional geolocated footage published on August 22 that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced within southern Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha).
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 2 Russian attacks over the last day near Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces conducted actions to improve their tactical position.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 14 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Sinkivka and Hlushkivka, Lozova, Stelmahivka and Andriivka. The situation is tense, four clashes are ongoing.
Lyman axis: Russian forces 11 times attacked Ukrainian defenses in the area of eight different settlements, concentrating mostly near Makiivka and Novasadove.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 11 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Bilohorivka, Spirne and Vyimka
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 11 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske.
Toretsk axis: There have been 11 Russian attacks over that last day with air support. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of, Druzhba, Toretsk, and Nelipivka. 1 battle continues.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity of the enemy today occurred in the Pokrovsk sector. The enemy conducted 53 attacks against Ukrainian defences mainly in the area of Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka and Mykhailivka.
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance 19 times in the area of settlements Karlivka, Krasnohorivka and Kostiantinivka.
Vremivka axis: In this sector the situation is under control, Russian forces made 3 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Vuhledar
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
Satellite images reveal devastating aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Russian port.
Satellite imagery of the aftermath of the Ukrainian Navy's strike on the Russian ferry Conro Trader in the port of Kavkaz in Russia's Krasnodar Krai was reported by Radio Liberty on Telegram on Aug. 23.
The Planet Labs image reveals a charred pier where the ferry was docked, scorch marks along the shoreline, damaged port infrastructure, and part of the railroad track leading to the water. It also shows smaller vessels potentially impacted by the strike.
The Ukrainian Navy confirmed the ferry's destruction earlier on the same day.“We can confirm that this target was destroyed by the Naval Forces," said Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk. No more details... This ferry played a crucial role in supplying Russian occupation forces.”
The Conro Trader was primarily carrying fuel and lubricants, as well as weapons, making it a legitimate target for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian forces struck a railway ferry carrying fuel tanks at the Port of Kavkaz, Russian media reported on Aug. 22.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
IAEA chief Grossi to visit Kursk NPP amid Ukraine’s advances
As Ukrainian troops push into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the International Atomic Energy Agency raised alarms about the safety of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant’s reactors, similar to those involved in the 1986 Chornobyl disaster. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is set to inspect the facility’s vulnerabilities firsthand. Bloomberg reports.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), plans to visit to visit and inspect the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia in the coming days, according to Bloomberg.
The visit comes as Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, after the incursion started on 6 August.
The IAEA expressed significant worry about military operations near the facility. Grossi highlighted the vulnerability of the plant’s outdated Soviet-era reactors, noting their lack of protective domes.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine to resume energy exports this week
Ukraine is planning to resume electricity exports to neighbouring countries on Aug. 25, the state grid operator Ukrenergo said. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Russia carried out a massive campaign of aerial attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure over the spring, similar to the one launched during the fall and winter of 2022-23. The damage caused a serious energy deficit and necessitated rolling blackouts across the country.
Due to the heatwave in July, the energy consumption in Ukraine hit maximum levels, leading to significant energy shortages in the system and causing necessary scheduled blackouts, sometimes lasting up to 20 hours.
"Exports will take place only during periods of surplus, when solar power plants are actively operating. Electricity will not be exported from Ukraine during periods of maximum consumption, when there is not enough capacity in the power system," Ukrenergo said.
This move was prompted by the weather changes, a significant decrease in consumption and the repair of another power unit at one of the nuclear power plants.
DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, said it had lost nearly 90% of its generating capacity due to the Russian attacks earlier this year. The company said it aims to recover 60-70% of its power generation capacity by October.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia shifts troops from Ukraine to Kursk while denying they are.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the Russian military command recently redeployed elements of at least one Russian airborne (VDV) regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, possibly in an effort to stabilise the lines and improve command and control (C2) over Russian conscripts.
A Crimean occupation official, who had volunteered to fight as part of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division), claimed on August 19 that his platoon redeployed from the Robotyne and Verbove area in western Zaporizhia Oblast to “defend” Kursk Oblast. Elements of the 56th VDV Regiment have been operating in western Zaporizhia Oblast since at least Summer 2023.
OSINT analysts on X (formerly Twitter) observed tactical insignia on the trucks seen in Crimean Wind’s footage that reportedly belongs to the 56th VDV Regiment and analysed other footage of Russian military equipment and trucks moving through Voronezh Oblast towards Kursk Oblast.
The scale of the redeployment of the 56th VDV Regiment is unclear from available information in the open source, although this reported redeployment is consistent with ISW’s observation that Russia has been pulling forces from less critical sectors of the frontline such as western Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
The Russian military command notably redeployed elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF]) and elements of two unspecified VDV battalions from the Kherson direction to Kursk Oblast, and ISW has also observed claims that elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were operating near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast in June 2024.
The Russian military command generally regards VDV and naval infantry elements as “elite” forces (even though many Russian elite units have lost their eliteness over the course of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine) and tends to deploy these forces to prioritised directions.
The effects of redeploying elements of the 56th VDV Regiment and other elite elements from southern Ukraine will also depend on the scale of the redeployments. The Russian military command may be redeploying limited numbers of elite forces to improve C2 in Kursk Oblast and oversee inexperienced conscripts.
The Russian military command reportedly heavily committed elements initially intended for the Russian offensive effort in northern Kharkiv Oblast to the defense of Kursk Oblast.
ISW has observed that significant redeployments of elements of the Northern Grouping of Forces (which is responsible for the Kharkiv direction) to Kursk Oblast suggest that the Russian military command has determined that disruption to the offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast is a necessary sacrifice to appropriately respond to the Ukrainian incursion while avoiding redeployments from higher priority sectors of the frontline.
Russian oil depot in Rostov Oblast ablaze for days, comes under attack again
A new strike has reportedly targeted an oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast, where a fire has been raging for six days, and efforts to extinguish it have been unsuccessful. The New Voice reported citing Russian Telegram channel Baza on Aug. 23.
The fire, which broke out at the oil depot on the morning of Aug. 18, has not been yet contained. There is concern that the fire could spread to nearby gas tanks.
The General Staff of Ukraine later confirmed that Ukrainian defence forces targeted the Kavkaz facility in Rostov Oblast, where oil and petroleum products were stored, including those supplied to the Russian military.
The fire in Proletarsk has covered an area of 10,000 square metres. Over 500 firefighters are working to control the blaze with the help of four aircraft.
Grumpy Here - There are reports that the fire has now spread to the kerosene tanks and that Russian authorities have admitted they are incapable of extinguishing the fire.
Satellite Images Show Aftermath of Strike on russian Marinovka Airbase
Satellite images from Marinovka airbase appeared online. This airbase was the target of Ukrainian powerful attack drones on August 22. The satellite imagery was published by MT Anderson OSINT analyst on X.
He noted that significant damage around the hangars and slightly north of them had been seen at the airbase.
OSINT analysts of CyberBoroshno Telegram channel reported that at least one Su-34fighter bomber was had been destroyed while one damaged in the hangars. Other hangars where aircraft may have located were also damaged.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
India, Ukraine approve four cooperation agreements
Ukraine and India have approved four cooperation agreements, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Aug. 23 during a visit to Kyiv by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"Today, we have approved… four documents between Ukraine and India during this historic visit by Prime Minister Modi.These are the spheres of medicine, agricultural cooperation, humanitarian relations, and culture." Zelenskyy said.
Zelensky also said a joint statement "on the development of strategic partnership between our countries, trade between our countries, and military and technical cooperation" had been prepared.
"All this should be strengthened,"he added.
Modi arrived in Kyiv on the morning of Aug. 23, the first time an Indian prime minister set foot in Ukraine since diplomatic relations were established over 30 years ago.
Following the meeting, Modi and Zelensky commemorated Ukrainian children killed during Russia's full-scale war.
A total of 570 children have been killed and more than 1,520 have been injured since the beginning of Moscow's all-out war against Ukraine, the Prosecutor General's Office said on Aug. 21.
"Children in every country deserve to be safe. We must make it possible," Zelenskyy said.
Modi's visit to Ukraine comes just weeks after a trip to Moscow, where he held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The visit included a widely criticised hug between the two leaders on July 8, hours after Russia bombed the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv, killing two people.
A historical ally of Russia, India has maintained its close economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow since February 2022, with bilateral trade reaching a historic high in 2023.
Modi told Zelenskyy how he met with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin a month ago and tried to convince him to stop the war.
"Last month, when I visited Russia, I told Putin very clearly that the problems cannot be solved on the battlefield. The only way of solving problems is through dialogue and diplomacy. And we should move in this direction, wasting no time. Both sides will have to sit down together and look for ways to overcome this crisis."
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
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