UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-15
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 15 stated that it was the 691st day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 94 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missile strikes, 60 air strikes, and 64 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russian soldiers are increasingly refusing to die for the short-term goals of their leader, so the enemy command decided to experiment with additional types of stimulus that distort the sense of reality and lead to death. Yes, according to available information, the personnel of the 108th Assault Regiment of the 7th Assault Division systematically issues narcotic and psychotropic substances. These drugs cause euphoria and numb the pain. Soldiers who use them are easier to agree to meat attacks without fear of injury or death.
Ukrainian Armed Forces shoot down Russian AWACS and aircraft over Azov Sea
The Ukrainian military reportedly shot down a Russian A-50 aircraft over the Azov Sea waters and forced down an IL-22 this evening on January 14, according to sources within the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
According to information from sources within the Ukrainian Defense Forces, it has been revealed that a military aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, A-50, was shot down, and an IL-22M11 with registration number 75106 was severely damaged.
Reportedly, the A-50 aircraft was downed immediately upon entering the patrol zone near Kyrylivka around 21:00 on Jan. 14. The aircraft disappeared from radar and ceased responding to tactical aviation requests. Subsequently, the pilot of a Russian Su-30 aircraft detected a fire and signs of the crash of an unidentified aircraft.
The IL-22M11 aircraft was on patrol in the Strilkove area and was damaged while flying along the coast of the Azov Sea at around 21:00 on January 14. After being hit, the aircraft radioed it was making an emergency landing in Anapa, requesting evacuation and calling for ambulance and firefighting services.
Confirmation from the Commander-in-Chief
Later the same day General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has confirmed that the Ukrainian Air Force has downed two important Russian planes: an airborne early warning system (AWACS) aircraft and an airborne command post.
"The servicemen of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an enemy A-50 AWACS aircraft and an Il-22 enemy airborne command post. I thank the Air Force for the perfectly planned and performed operation in the Azov Sea!" Zaluzhnyi concluded
A photo later released on Telegram purports to show the damage inflicted on the IL-22 Command plane
Destruction of Russian A-50 may postpone missile attacks on Ukraine
Nataliia Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for the OC "South", stated during a briefing
"We are recording the downing of two units. This is the enemy's loss of two aviation units. Moreover, not just any aircraft, but those that were used to deploy the relevant command posts. One of them, the A-50, actually served as the enemy's eyes. Because thanks to this particular machine and the equipment that provided for its operation, the enemy was observing our territory and launching powerful missile strikes.
And it was with the help of the A-50 that the situation with future targets was exposed to the maximum extent possible. Therefore, we hope that such a strike will be quite sensitive and will at least postpone future missile strikes,"
Russia plans further winter offensives with little chance of success
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Jan. 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that they continue to assess that Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and retain the initiative regardless of winter weather and terrain conditions. ISW also assesses, however, that Russian forces will be unable to make operationally significant breakthroughs.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Syn’kivka and Petropavlivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled 14 attacks of the occupiers near Makiivka and Bilogorivka (Luhansk oblast) and Verkhnyokamianska (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 5 attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Jan. 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Bakhmut direction stated that Russian forces have increased the number of troops in the Bakhmut direction to about 80,000 personnel, and that units of the Russian “Volunteer Corps” are conducting assaults in the Bakhmut direction.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove and Avdiivka, and 14 attacks near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnogorivka, Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 16 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: No significant offensive action.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 attacks south of Chervone and near Robotyne, (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Jan. 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Verbove and elements of the newly formed 49th Separate Air Assault Brigade (reportedly subordinated to the 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) are reportedly operating in the Orikhiv direction. ISW previously reported claims that Russian forces are forming air assault brigades within combined arms ground formations and that one of these brigades, the 49th Separate Air Assault Brigade, is already active in the Zaporizhia direction.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 7 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian aviation is unable to operate in southern Ukraine due to freezing weather conditions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Medical personnel shipped temporarily occupied territories (TOT) to treat Russian wounded
Ukraine's National Resistance Center (NRC) reported that medics from the Republic of Karelia have arrived in the temporarily occupied territories (TOT) of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The NRC states that these medical personnel arrive on a rotational basis due to the lack of personnel at the TOT, the occupiers continue to bring in medical teams from the Russian Federation. These personnel include anesthesiologists, an oncologist surgeon, ultrasound doctors and therapists.
The NRC added that, these personnel are primarily there to treat russian casualties, not the local population. The quality and availability of medical services for the local population remain at a critically low level.
"Even when providing emergency aid, preference is given to Russians. Because of this, the situation in the temporarily occupied regions is critical. Aggravation of the epidemiological situation and the humanitarian crisis is obvious. Mortality among the civilian population is increasing significantly."
Ukrainian resistance in Melitopol blows up Russians along with their equipment
According to a report from Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (HUR) on Jan. 14 there was a powerful explosion on Hohol Street in temporarily occupied Melitopol.
A vehicle belonging to the Russian occupiers, a UAZ Patriot, was blown up as a result of a special operation conducted by Ukrainian resistance forces. Four Russian soldiers were reportedly killed and the vehicle totally destroyed.
THE HOME FRONT
Half of high-rise buildings in Kherson damaged by Russian attacks
Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, the head of the press office of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, at a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform media centre reported that after almost two years of Russian bombardments about half of high-rise buildings in the city of Kherson have been damaged.
"22,000 partially damaged or destroyed facilities in Kherson Oblast. As for the city of Kherson itself, presumably, 50% of high-rise buildings are damaged."
He said that since the liberation of Kherson (in November 2022 – ed.), 464 people, including 11 children, have been killed by Russian attacks in the liberated part of Kherson Oblast. A total of 1,981 people, including 85 children, have been injured over this period of time.
Tolokonnikov also noted that in the left-bank (eastern) part of Kherson Oblast, Russian occupation authorities began collecting signatures from citizens in support of Vladimir Putin.
In addition, he said that the Russians were planning to call up citizens born in 2007 in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast.
"There are reports that [Volodymyr] Saldo, the main collaborator of the left-bank Kherson Oblast, announced that mobilisation lists should be formed by 15 April to call up men born in 2007 as well. Medical commissions and enlistment offices are already being set up to have all the lists and start mobilisation by 15 April. This is their plan."\
— Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, the head of the press office of Kherson Oblast Military Administration
The SBU detained a former Wagner member preparing Russian strikes against Kyiv power infrastructure
During a multi-stage special operation, the Security Service detained a saboteur. The detainee is a Belarusian citizen who is part of Russia’s intelligence apparatus.
From 2014 to 2017, he was a member of the L/DNR terrorist group and took part in combat operations against government forces in eastern Ukraine.
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the militant joined the Russian private military company "Wagner", and took part in battles in and around Bakhmut.
The SBU learned about such plans of the aggressor during the enemy saboteur’s visit to the Republic of Serbia.Since that time, the Ukrainian special service has gradually documented his criminal actions from crossing the state border to arriving at the place of sabotage in Ukraine.
As a result, the perpetrator was caught red-handed as he tried to attach several GPS trackers to transmission lines supplying the Kyiv region.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Figure of 500,000 Russian army recruits over past year is overstated
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Jan. 15 Defence Intelligence Update stated that Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and now Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, that another 500,000 people allegedly joined the Russian army in 2023. The MOD assesses that it is highly likely that this figure has been substantially inflated.
In its efforts to meet recruitment targets, the Russian military has since April 2023 allowed school-leavers to sign contracts with the Russian army. Recent data published by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service suggests that at least five Russians born in 2005 have died in the conflict.
UK intelligence also believes it is highly likely that the main mobilisation burden falls on poorer regions and rural areas.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy arrives in Switzerland to participate in Davos forum
On Monday Jan. 15, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived on a working visit to Switzerland, where he will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos and hold a number of bilateral meetings.The head of Swiss diplomacy Ignazio Cassis posted a picture of him on Twitter greeting Zelenskyy at the airport.
Ukrainska Pravda also reported that Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
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