UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-05
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 4 stated that day 863 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 130 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 38 air strikes, 473 drone strikes and more than 2,800 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of July 5, 2024, the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 32 Shahed-131/136 type attack UAVs from the regions of Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
Fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, electronic warfare units repelled the strike.
Ukrainian defenders of the sky shot down all 32 "shaheds" in the Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 18 assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Hlyboke, Lyptsi and Vovchansk. 4 clashes remain ongoing.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy made 4 attempts to breach Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Synkivka, Novoselivka and Stelmakhivka. All were repulsed
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 14 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka and Terny. 1 clashes continues at this time near Nevske. The situation is under control.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 8 assaults in the vicinity of Bilhorivka, Verkhnokamianske and Vyimka.
Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 14 attacks in the vicinity of Hryhorivka, Kalynivka and Klischiivka. The situation is under the control of Defense forces.
Toretsk axis: The situation is tense in this direction. The invaders attacked near Pivichne, Toretsk and Nui-York 18 times unsuccessfully.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The highest intensity of combat remains in this sector. The enemy conducted 33 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Lozuvatske, Prohes, Yevhenívka, Novoselivka Persha and Yasnobrodivka. 10 combat clashes are still ongoing.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 12 times unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces in the vicinity of Nevelske, Krasnohorivka and Paraskoviivka. One attack is still in progress.
Vremivka axis: The enemy made 7 attempts to attack Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Vodyane, and Makarivka. One attack is still in progress.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 9 attacks in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: In this direction, 2 assault actions of the enemy on the left bank of the Dnieper in the vicinity of Krynky were unsuccessful.
F-16s will challenge Russia's aerial dominance over Black Sea, Ukraine's Navy chief says
The upcoming delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine will challenge Russia's "full dominance" of the skies over the Black Sea, Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa told Reuters in an interview published on July 5.
Ukraine is expected to receive the first F-16 jets this summer, a year after Denmark and the Netherlands founded the "fighter jet coalition" with nine other countries at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
"F-16s with the right armaments will be able to push away Russian warplanes. The northwestern part of the Black Sea, particularly the corridor for civilian ships, will be almost 100% secure," Neizhpapa said.
Due to the naval drone attacks, Russian warships do not enter the northwestern part of the Black Sea, an area of almost 25,000 square metres, Neizhpapa said.
Ukraine wants to expand its shipping corridor, which facilities the only maritime traffic from the three main Odesa ports, to include the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson in the country's south, the vice admiral said.
This is currently impossible since Russia controls the Kinburn Spit, he added.
The Kinburn Spit is located at the mouth of the Dnipro River south of Kherson. It is one of the last parts of Mykolaiv Oblast that remains under Russian occupation.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief talks to UAV units about broader use of drones
In a sign of how important drones have become in modern warfare, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, met with commanders of UAV combat units to discuss the wider use of drones at the line of contact.he reported on Facebook.
"I held a regular working meeting with the participation of the most effective UAV units commanders who go by the aliases of Magyar, Achilles, Pharmacist, Flint, Dym (Smoke), Charlie, Guru, K-2 and others. Some commanders joined us online in the field. We are continuing to work on scaling up the experience of successful use of all types of UAVs at the line of contact." Syrskyi said
He further said the Armed Forces' current task is "to be technologically one step ahead of Russia both in hitting targets with drones and in defending [themselves] against them," as the lives of the military depend on it.
"[The use of] Unmanned systems is one of the most dynamic areas where changes are happening every day, and we have no right to lag behind. We have a clear action plan. Joint work continues," the Commander-in-Chief stated.
Labour shortages drive up wages in Ukraine, central bank says
Ukrainian companies are forced to offer higher wages as they are faced with increasing labour shortages, according to a report by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published on July 4. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Over 6 million Ukrainians left or were forced out of their home country after the outbreak of Russia's full-scale war, according to UNHCR.
The labour shortage is compounded by the intensifying mobilisation drive as Kyiv seeks to replenish the ranks of its Armed Forces. Many sectors have been seeking exemptions from the draft for their employees.
According to the NBU's report, the offered monthly salaries have continuously grown from around Hr 13,500 ($332) in February 2022 to roughly Hr 19,500 ($480) in May 2024.
Concurrently, the index of difficulty in finding a workforce increased from 5 points to 35 for unskilled labour and from almost 20 points to 40 for skilled labour between the start of 2023 and May 2024.
"Businesses will continue to experience labour shortages, which will drive higher wages in the private sector," the report read. "Together with rising social benefits and low inflation, this will contribute to the growth of the population's real incomes."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Lukashenko is suddenly making concessions to the West
Quite unexpectedly, for many observers, Alexander Lukashenko's regime began to show signs of more constructive behaviour and even a willingness to start trading with Western neighbours. On July 1 Lukasheko unexpectedly announced the release of some political prisoners. Ukrainska Pravda reported.
These concessions from Minsk came shortly after the late June visit of Polish President Andrzej Duda to China.
On 23 June, Duda warned Chinese President Xi Jinping about a possible complete closure of the Polish-Belarusian border during negotiations in Beijing, explaining it as a reaction to the murder of a Polish border guard by a migrant.
Blaming the Belarusian authorities for escalating the situation at the border, Duda did not hide that Warsaw was trying to pressure Lukashenko through Beijing. The fact is that the complete closure of the border with Poland could mean stopping the transit of Chinese goods across Belarus, thus causing losses to both Belarus and China.
For Minsk, losing Beijing's interest means the prospect of being left alone with Putin. Therefore, Lukashenko's administration hurriedly began to shift course
Next came the appointment to the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Maksim Ryzhankov.
Ryzhankov, a much more demanding and tougher character compared to his predecessor, is aimed at shaking up the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and eventually showing more acceptable results in the western direction.
The signalling did not stop there, as Lukashenko took an even more unexpected step by releasing significant Ukrainian political prisoners for the first time.
This was not just a gesture towards Ukraine but also an action intended to catch the eye of European politicians.
To reinforce the impact of releasing Ukrainian citizens, Lukashenko announced an amnesty for some Belarusian political prisoners, primarily those with health problems, ahead of Belarus' Independence Day.
The war will end sooner or later, and Lukashenko will be left alone with his Putin.
To maintain power in such conditions, the Belarusian dictator has no other options but to try to balance Moscow's influence through third parties.
The only country that can weaken Belarus' dependence on the Kremlin in such a situation remains China. But Beijing, if it is ready to assist the Belarusian dictator, will do so exclusively on certain conditions. One of them is likely to be at least a partial exit from confrontation with the West – exactly what the regime has begun to engage in more actively.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ukrainian, Moldovan and Romanian foreign ministers to meet today
A trilateral meeting at the level of the foreign ministers of the Republic of Moldova, Romania and Ukraine will be held in Chişinău on Friday July 5.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has announced the key details of Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit to Moldova on Friday.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine specified that the key topics of the talks will be strengthening cooperation in the Ukraine-Moldova-Romania triangle, Ukraine's and Moldova's accession to the EU, the development of cooperation between the three countries in the fields of energy, infrastructure and transport, in particular in the context of Ukraine's recovery, strengthening the energy system of Ukraine and the region as a whole, the development of border infrastructure and the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
The ministers will pay special attention to closer cooperation between the three countries in countering disinformation, foreign information manipulation and interference, and attempts to destabilise the situation in the region.
The talks are expected to result in the signing of a joint ministerial statement and a memorandum of understanding between the three countries' foreign ministries on countering disinformation.
Baltic PMs question Hungary’s EU presidency role after Moscow meeting
The European Commission and Baltic leaders have strongly criticised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Moscow, questioning its impact on EU unity and Hungary’s role as the current holder of the EU Council presidency. reports Ukrainska Pravda.
European Commission spokesperson Eric Mamer said that Orban’s trip “seriously calls into question the traditional visit of the Commission President to Hungary” planned for after the summer break,
Mamer emphasised that cancelling the visit to Budapest would signal that “some actions, which we believe are moving in the wrong direction,” are unacceptable.
The Commission spokesperson also clarified that Orban’s trip was not associated with any EU mandate and that the Hungarian leader had not informed or coordinated his plans with the European Commission.
Baltic leaders also criticised Orban’s visit to Moscow. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that Orban’s “unilateral decision to go to Moscow doesn’t in any shape or form represent the EU position.” He said that it also undermines trust in the Hungarian presidency.
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina called the meeting with Putin “totally unacceptable,” stating it “undermines efforts for Ukraine’s victory and a just peace.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, soon to lead EU diplomacy, emphasised that Orban “is exploiting the EU presidency position to sow confusion.”
YouTube, Spotify blocks channels of pro-Russian artists sanctioned by EU
YouTube blocked the channels of several Russian singers and artists who actively support Russia’s war in Ukraine, including Shaman, Grigory Leps, Polina Gagarina, Oleg Gazmanov, and Yulia Chicherina, Nikolay Rastorguev, and others, according to LRT. Euromaidan Press reports.
These Russian artists openly support Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and promote Russian propaganda.
This happened after the Lithuanian Radio and Television Commission (LRTK) reached out to representatives of Google and YouTube, demanding immediate action to remove the official YouTube accounts of Russian singers, actors, and TV show hosts included in the European Union sanctions list.
The EU’s 14th package of sanctions in June targeted individuals and entities considered responsible for actions that undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of Ukraine following Russia’s aggression.
LRTK noted that some of these sanctioned individuals actively use YouTube, gaining popularity, financial benefits, and a platform to spread Russian propaganda through their official accounts with numerous subscribers, videos, and views.
However, the blocking of the propagandist musicians’ content on YouTube is not complete, as their songs can still be found reposted on other accounts.
The LRTK pointed out that under the Law on International Sanctions of the Republic of Lithuania, legal entities violating international sanctions may face fines of up to € 50,000 ($54 106) or higher if the violation persists.
Earlier, the world’s largest music streaming service, Spotify, also removed the pages of these performers from its platform.
MILITARY & TECH
Third German Patriot air defence system arrives in Ukraine
German Ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Jaeger has announced on Twitter the arrival of the third air defence system sent by Germany to Ukraine.
He said that it would help improve the protection of the population and infrastructure.
The Ukrainian crew has successfully completed the appropriate training to work with this system in Germany, the ambassador added.
Grumpy here - It is believed that this brings the total to 5 full Patriot batteries operating in Ukraine at the moment. (with the possibility of 8 more systems being purchased from Israel) In addition to IRST, SAMP/T, NASAMS and HAWK systems that have been provided by various countries. This coupled with supplies of missiles for them arriving on a regular basis means that Ukraine’s air defences get stronger every day.
Meanwhile on the russian side there is increasing difficulty in accessing components for its missile production program. The much vaunted Kinzhal hypersonic missile system has turned out to be a total failure, with every Kinzhal missile launched since the arrival of the first Patriot system having been shot down. There are concerns that fatigue among its nearly 70 year old TU-95 bomber fleet (used to launch its cruise missiles) may ground them. And the swarms of cheap Iranian drones they are reduced to relying on are routinely all shot down.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!