UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-06-01
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:30 on May 31 stated that day 829 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 81 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 47 air strikes, 531 drone strikes and 2300 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Ukrainian missile forces attacked two enemy personnel concentration sites, one military equipment concentration area, two artillery systems, four control points and a fuel base.
Air Force Daily Report
35 MISSILES AND 46 ATTACK UAVS WERE SHOT DOWN
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On the night of June 1, 2024, the Russian occupiers launched an intense hybrid attack on critical infrastructure facilities in various regions of Ukraine, using air, sea, and land-based missiles, as well as "Shahed" type UAVs.
In total, the enemy launched 53 missiles of various types and 47 attack UAVs:
- 35 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 MS strategic aircraft (launch area - Saratov Region, airspace over the Caspian Sea - Russian Federation);
- 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Crimea);
- 1 "Iskander-K" cruise missile (from Crimea);
- 10 Kalibr cruise missiles (from the northeastern part of the Black Sea);
- 3 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles (from the airspace of the TOT of the Zaporizhzhia region);
- 47 strike UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type (Prymorsko-Akhtarsk launch area - Russian Federation).
Fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, mobile fire groups and means of radio-electronic warfare of the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the enemy's air attack.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 81 air targets were shot down:
- 30 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles;
- 4 Kalibr cruise missiles;
- 1 "Iskander-K" cruise missile;
- 46 attack UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type.
Russia does not abandon their intentions to destroy the fuel and energy sector of Ukraine. The Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine are doing everything possible to prevent the enemy from achieving its goals on every part of the front.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: Over the last day Russian invaders conducted 2 assaults in the vicinity of Lyptsi and Vovchansk
Russian forces prepare for second phase of offensive in Kharkiv Oblast
US Think Tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their May 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that senior Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are transferring forces to northern Kharkiv Oblast from other sectors of the frontline, indicating that the Russian military continues to prioritize efforts to draw and fix Ukrainian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi and the Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 30 that the Russian military is transferring elements of an unspecified number of additional regiments and brigades from other unspecified areas of the frontline and from training grounds to the Strilecha-Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) areas in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Syrskyi reported that the Russian military does not have enough forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast to conduct a full-scale offensive and break through Ukrainian defenses, however. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov also reported that Russian forces are transferring reserves to the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions to draw and fix as many Ukrainian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast as possible and maintain the current tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area.
Synehubov stated that Russian forces have not concentrated a "strike group" near Zolochiv Hromada, Kharkiv Oblast (northwest of Kharkiv City) but that Russian forces could redirect forces in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions to the Zolochiv direction. Several Russian milbloggers purposefully misreported Synehubov's statements about possible evacuations in the event of Russian attacks and claimed that he had stated that Russian forces are preparing offensive operations in the Zolochiv direction.
The Russian military's transfer of reinforcements to Kharkiv Oblast indicates that the Russian military likely continues to prioritize efforts to draw and fix Ukrainian forces from critical sectors of the frontline in eastern Ukraine and establish a "buffer zone" in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces likely intend to launch the second phase of their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast following their intended seizure of Vovchansk, although positional fighting and possible Ukrainian counterattacks could require Russian forces to conduct another wave of intensified assaults in the area to complete the seizure of the settlement. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely holding back many of the reserves from the Northern Grouping of Forces, which is staffed with elements of the 11th Army Corps (AC), 44th AC, and 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) — all part of the Russian Leningrad Military District (LMD) — until the Northern Grouping of Forces is closer to its reported planned end strength of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel.
ISW assesses Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces, even at the upper limit of its reported end strength, will lack the necessary manpower needed to conduct a successful operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City.
Kupyansk axis: Russian forces made 12 assaults in the areas of Sinkivka, Petropavlivka, Berestove, Novoyegorivka and Makiyivka. Ukrainian defenders continue to repel all attacks.
Lyman axis: Russian forces conducted 4 assaults in the vicinities of Terny, Torske and Dibrova. The situation is tense but under control.
Siversk axis: There were 8 Russian assaults in the Siversk direction with heavy fighting near Vyimka
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces made 6 assaults in the vicinity of Bogdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Chasiv Yar
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The heaviest fighting over the last day was in this area. The enemy made 27 combat assaults in the vicinity of Novooleksandrivka, Prohes, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Netailove and Nevelske Several battles are still ongoing. Defense Forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation and prevent the enemy from advancing.
Kurakhove axis: Five combat assaults took place in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka, Novomikhailivka and Konstantinivka. Fighting in the area of Krasnohorivka ongoing.
Vremika axis: Russia assaulted in the vicinity of Staromaiorske unsuccessfully 3 times. The situation is under control
Orikhiv axis: Russia made 4 assaults on Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Mala Tokmahčka, Novodanilivka, Robotyne and Novoandriivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian defences on the left bank of the Dnipro in the vicinity of Krynky 3 times over the previous day. All attacks were repelled.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Former Russian convicts formed gang in Ukraine's occupied territories and robbed locals
Russian media outlet ASTRA has reported that former Russian convicts have formed a gang in Ukraine's occupied territory and robbed civilians at gunpoint.
According to ASTRA, on 8 March, last year, several armed individuals in balaclavas entered property belonging to Yelyzavetivske, a private company, in the village of Yelyseivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and stole a John Deere tractor, a forklift truck and 24 diesel fuel cans. Two months later, six unknown people approached a resident of Tarasivka at gunpoint and forced him to hand over a JBC tractor, which they towed with the help of a Russian Ural military vehicle.
In March of this year, the Novokyivka weighbridge in the settlement of the same name was burgled. Unidentified individuals locked a guard in the room, pulled his hat over his face, and took six John Deere water pumps. They then looted the firm Dominatsiia in the village of Yelyzavetivka, threatening a guard with a weapon. This time, they stole a John Deere tractor and an engine.
ASTRA said that Tamirlan Baragunov, 42, a native of North Ossetia, previously convicted of robbery, assault and counterfeiting, Arslanbek Baragunov, also convicted of counterfeiting, and Ruslan, 38, who had been convicted of drug trafficking, are suspected of involvement in the robberies. There are other defendants in the case, but they have not been detained.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine’s Power Grid Teeters on the Brink: 70% destroyed by Russia
Since March 2024, Ukraine has endured five devastating Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure.
Until March 2024, Ukraine’s electrical grid had largely avoided the pounding that Russian forces inflicted in 2023, which brought the country to the brink of total electrical collapse. This was thanks to an air defense system that intercepted a large number of missiles and drones. Euromaidan Press reports.
However, due to Western delays in arms deliveries, the air defenses have run low on ammunition, and Russian missiles are increasingly hitting their targets.
In contrast to the previous campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector, which focused on destroying the electrical distribution grid, Russian forces are now directly targeting thermal and hydroelectric power plants.
Consequently, Ukraine has lost 70% of its available generation capacity, with only 14 gigawatts remaining out of the previous 36.7, Olena Pavlenko, an energy expert and director of the Ukrainian think tank DiXi Group, told Euromaidan Press.
“With Ukraine having lost 70% of its electricity generation, everyone is asking what can be done. Unfortunately, we’ve reached a point where there is no quick and easy answer,” says Pavlenko.
Russian attacks have caused $12.5 billion in damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure, according to Andrii Gerus, Chairman of the Ukrainian parliament Committee on Energy Issues.
To facilitate the restoration of Ukraine’s energy system, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine and the European Commission established the Ukraine Energy Support Fund in April 2022. The Fund, managed by the Energy Community Secretariat in Vienna, Austria, allows governments, international organizations, and corporate donors to provide financial support to Ukraine’s energy sector.
As of May 2024, the Fund has received approximately €400 million ($434 million)
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy suggests US position behind UK resistance to the use of its missiles on Russia
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, has indicated in an interview with The Guardian published on May 31 that Kyiv wants to use long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, including Storm Shadow missiles provided by the United Kingdom.
He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK did not give "100% permission" to use its missiles to strike targets in Russia.
As the Guardian notes, the Ukrainian leader suggested that London is actually waiting for a decision in Washington.
"We raised this issue twice. We did not get confirmation from him [David Cameron, the foreign secretary]," Zelenskyy explained.
The president suggested that the final decision of the UK and other partners on such permission depends on "consensus," and the position of the USA is crucial.
Denmark allows Ukraine to use F-16s against military targets within Russia, dismisses Russian threats
Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has dismissed Russia’s warning of “monstrous consequences” if Ukraine uses Danish F-16 fighter jets against Russia’s territory as part of the Russian “propaganda war,” and said Kyiv can strike military targets within Russia with Danish-supplied weapons. Euromaidan Press reports.
Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, had threatened that Russia would view the presence of F-16s in Ukraine as a “nuclear threat” since the jets could deliver nuclear weapons against Russia. Barbin’s comments were in response to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who stated on 28 May that Ukraine is permitted to use Danish weapons on Russian territory, provided it aligns with international law.
He stressed that providing the jets does not give Ukraine “carte blanche” for “indiscriminate attacks into Russia” but the right to strike military targets there under the laws of war since Russia has opened a new front across the northeastern border.
“We’re talking about an opportunity to weaken the aggressor by taking out military installations [such as weapons depots] on Russian territory,” says Lars Løkke Rasmussen, adding that “It is completely within the rules of war that a country under attack must be able to respond. That also includes the right to go after installations on the attacking party’s own territory.”
Dutch endorse Ukraine using F-16s in Russian airspace for self-protection
The Netherlands has expressed its approval for Ukraine to potentially use F-16 fighter jets over Russian territory for self-defense purposes, citing the United Nations Charter’s provisions on self-defense.
The Dutch foreign minister, Bruins Slot, stated that if Ukraine has the right to self-defense, there are no borders for the use of weapons, Radio Liberty reports.
Last fall, Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands committed to supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets starting in 2025. Currently, the total number of pledged F-16s is about 80. Kyiv has been urgently requesting more advanced jets to strengthen its air force against Russia’s larger and more technologically advanced fleet. At the same time, some Ukrainian allies, including the US, impose restrictions on the weapons they supply, stipulating that they must only be used within Ukraine and not for targeting Russian territory.
“If you have the right to self-defense, there are no limits to the use of weapons… This is a general principle,” said the Dutch foreign minister
Almost all of Ukraine’s key allies now support Ukraine striking targets in Russia.
A key debate has emerged among Ukraine’s allies over whether to lift restrictions on Ukraine using Western-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia itself. While many allies have provided Ukraine with longer-range weaponry, it has frequently come with the condition that it only be used on Ukrainian soil. Euromaidan Press reported.
However, recent Russian actions like the indiscriminate and massive shelling of Kharkiv and a renewed offensive in the north of that region are prompting some partners to reconsider those limitations. Below is a handy graphic
G-7 to Target Banks Helping Russia To Evade Ukraine War Sanctions
Group of Seven nations and the European Union are studying ways to tighten the screws on banks that help Moscow evade sanctions. Bloomberg reports.
Under consideration by some allies are measures that would target third-country lenders using the Bank of Russia’s SWIFT-like financial messaging system to circumvent trade restrictions, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private.
The discussions come ahead of a G-7 meeting in Italy next month, where government heads aim to agree on a set of measures to better enforce sanctions imposed on Russia for its war against Ukraine.
The G-7 has long made it a top priority to stop Russia from obtaining key technologies used in weapons or needed to produce them.
More recently, officials have focused on banks that have allegedly facilitated some of those transactions, warning them of new penalties. That’s prompted several lenders to tighten curbs and led to an apparent drop in Russian imports, some of the people said.
The US and its allies are “open to sanctioning” any company or individual helping Russia access components that can be used for weapons, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday
As part of a new package of sanctions, the European Commission has proposed restrictions on lenders using the Russian central bank’s system for the transfer of financial messages, known as SPFS, to circumvent sanctions. Like SWIFT, it acts as a secure messaging network to facilitate interbank payments.
The US and its allies have also stepped up warnings to the financial sector to increase compliance with sanctions and shut down any efforts at evasion, or face penalties.
US NSA spokesperson claims that US authorization for strikes on Russia not limited to Kharkiv Oblast but does prohibit the use of ATACMS
Michael Carpenter, Senior Director for European Affairs at the US National Security Council, has said during an interview that the US decision to allow Ukraine to strike with US weapons on Russian territory is not limited to Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
Carpenter noted that for reasons of operational security, he could not disclose the details of the conditions under which Ukraine could launch strikes on Russian territory. However when questioned further he stated:
"This applies to the entire region in the north (of Ukraine – ed.), where Russian forces are firing on Ukraine from what would otherwise be relative sanctuary, but now enabling Ukrainian forces to [use] munitions and weapons to be able to fire back," the US National Security Council official said.
Regarding ATACMS the spokesman confirmed:
"This does not apply to ATACMS or long-range strikes, but it is designed to enable Ukraine to defend itself," he said.
MILITARY & TECH
Supply of shells to Ukraine to increase sharply in June
Czechia’s Foreign Ministry officials stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive 50,000-100,000 large-calibre artillery shells a month under the Czech initiative. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive the first batch of shells under the Czech initiative as early as June.
Tomáš Kopečný, Czech Governmental Commissioner for the Reconstruction of Ukraine responsible for the Czech initiative to supply shells to Ukraine, spoke about the same timeline. Kopečný also said he expects that the supply of shells to Ukraine will increase. "The first major increase in supplies will take place in June; tens of thousands [of shells will be supplied], between 50,000 and 100,000 shells a month," he said.
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