UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-26
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 26 stated that it was day 702 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 82 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 19 air strikes, and 68 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks of the enemy near the settlement of Synkivka, Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the occupiers near Makiivka, (Luhansk oblast) and 5 attacks near Terny and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andrviika (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 10 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 25 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 attacks south of Zolota-Nyva, Vodiane and west of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks south-east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 6 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Kremlin-appointed head of Qirim introduces "special regime" for checkpoints with Kherson Oblast
The Russian occupiers of Qirim have introduced a "special regime" of entry and exit at the border between the peninsula and the occupied part of Kherson Oblast.
Radio Liberty reported that Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-appointed head of Qirim had issued a decree that border checkpoints “equivalent to the regime of checkpoints across the Russian state border" be set up at the administrative border crossing points between Qirim and Kherson Oblast at the automobile checkpoints of Armiansk, Perekop and Dzhankoi, and the railway checkpoints Armiansk and Dzhankoi.
It is stated in the document that military convoys will move along specially designated roads in coordination with the Border Guard Department of the Russian FSB.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine to begin construction of four nuclear reactors in 2024
Reuters reports that Ukraine expects to start construction work on four new nuclear power reactors this summer or autumn, Energy Minister German Galushchenko told Reuters on Thursday, as the country seeks to compensate for lost energy capacity due to the war with Russia.
Two of the units - which include reactors and related equipment - will be based on Russian-made equipment that Ukraine wants to import from Bulgaria, while the other two will use Western technology from power equipment maker Westinghouse.
All four reactors will be built at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant in the west of Ukraine, Galushchenko added.
The timeline is more aggressive than previously outlined by Kyiv, which has spoken of starting work in some time in 2024 and without specifying that all four reactors could be developed simultaneously.
"I think (we'll start construction) in summer-autumn," Galushchenko said in an interview. "We need vessels," he added, referring to the reactor pressure vessels that will have to be imported. “We want to do the third and fourth units right away."
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Igor Girkin sentenced to four years by Moscow Court
Multiple reliable media sources have reported that a Moscow City Court on Thursday Jan. 25 convicted Igor Girkin of inciting extremism over his criticism of the war in Ukraine and sentenced him to four years in prison.
Girkin, AKA Strelkov (shooter) or Igor Groznyy (Igor The Terrible) is a radical extremist Russian nationalist terrorist and former FSB officer. He has done the Kremlin’s dirty work all over the world.
Girkin, who comes from Moscow and has no connection to Donetsk, was part of a group of Russians who seized the Ukrainian city of Sloviansk in April 2014. He was able to successfully parlay this action into getting himself appointed to the position of Minister of Defence of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic. During this time Girkin is accused of the kidnapping, torture and murder of a number of Ukrainian citizens.
Months later in August of 2014 he was involved in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. On 17 November 2022, Girkin was found guilty for the murder of 298 people, convicted of all charges in absentia, and issued a life sentence by a court in The Netherlands.
During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Girkin regained attention as a “milblogger”, taking a strong pro-war stance but criticizing the Russian military (but pointedly not Putin) for what he saw as incompetence and "insufficiency". In October 2022, Girkin briefly joined a volunteer unit allegedly fighting against Ukrainian forces.
In April 2023, Girkin, alongside some fellow Russian nationalists, joined the Club of Angry Patriots, a hardline pro-war group. He began criticizing Vladimir Putin for incompetence for failing to pursue the Ukraine war effectively enough. On 21 July 2023,he was arrested by Russian authorities on charges of extremism.
After all of the crimes this man has committed, it is worth noting that he is finally going to jail for insulting Vladimir Putin.
FSB forbade VIPs to board Il-76 yesterday; only 5 bodies delivered to Belgorod's morgue
Andrii Yusov, representative of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), in conversation with Radio Liberty on Jan. 25 stated that the Il-76 plane that crashed in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast the day before was supposed to carry Russian officials on board, but at the last minute, the FSB forbade them to board.
"Several VIPs on board from the military and political representation of the aggressor state were supposed to be on that aircraft. Their names are known and will be revealed, and the materials will be provided as part of the international investigation.
But at the last moment, the FSB essentially ordered them not to get on board and to use other means of transport. This information was established only after the incident occurred.
Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations who arrived at the scene were basically kicked out by representatives of the FSB and the military, and they were not allowed to inspect the site and locate the wreckage, according to the protocol."
Andrii Yusov, Spokesman Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU)
Yusov also pointed out that the video from the crash site does not show the remains of human bodies. And according to intelligence data, only five bodies were delivered to the local morgue in Belgorod the day before. This number, in fact, corresponds to the number of crew members of the Il-76 – the same aircraft that was part of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Yusov added.
Kremlin no longer offers pardons to convict recruits
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Jan. 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, quoting Russian propaganda sources stated that The Kremlin no longer offers pardons to newly convicted conscripts and significantly changes the conditions of their service. It is likely this is due to the reduced number of eligible convicts for recruitment into the Russian Armed Forces.
The BBC reports that Russian officials concluded recruitment for Storm-Z units in August 2023 and began recruiting convicts for Storm-V units based on new contract conditions in September 2023.
Earlier, Russian officials recruited convicts through promises of pardons and six-month contracts, but Storm-V units reportedly do not promise pardons or even conditional early release, continuing contracts with convicts for an indefinite period until the end of the war.
Russian officials likely extended contracts based on President Vladimir Putin's order for partial mobilisation, similar to how Russian military personnel are handled for mobilised personnel.
Russia has lost at least 3,000 officers since beginning of full-scale invasion
An investigation by the BBC and Mediazona has revealed that Russia has lost at least 3,079 officers in total since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine; it was possible to identify and confirm the death of 43,014 Russian soldiers (without militants from PMC’s or Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts).
The loss of junior officers affects the combat capability of units most of all. As of today, it is known about the death of 2,278 soldiers with the rank from lieutenant to captain.
"We assume that our list may contain at least half as many names of the dead as are actually buried in Russia. We concluded by systematically studying the situation in cemeteries in 70 Russian localities. So, according to the most cautious estimate, by the end of September, Russia could have lost 86,000 people dead."
For context — These figures only record those Russian soldiers who were officially reported as dead and whose remains were returned to Russia to be interred. It is well known that Russia leaves many casualties lying in the field and does not record them in order to keep casualty figures at an “acceptable” level to the public.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Trump’s opposition threatens to derail a possible US deal for Ukraine funding.
Senate Republicans struggled to hold together support for a bipartisan border-for-Ukraine deal on Thursday as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) privately acknowledged former president Donald Trump’s opposition to the deal has complicated its future, the Washington Post reports.
In a closed-door meeting Wednesday afternoon, McConnell, who is pushing for Ukraine funding and reluctantly agreed to tie the foreign aid to border security, acknowledged that the politics have changed for passing a border deal given Trump’s opposition as he moves toward clinching the Republican presidential nomination, according to two people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private meeting.
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead GOP negotiator, said Thursday that he thinks McConnell was not “undermining” his work at all. But Lankford also acknowledged the problem of some Republicans seeing a deal as bad for Trump’s political future, given polling suggests immigration is one of Biden’s top political liabilities.
Negotiators said the next few days would be critical for the future of the package.
“I think the Republican conference is going to make a decision in the next 24 hours as to whether they actually want to get something done or whether they want to leave the border a mess for political reasons,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic negotiator. “If Republicans blow this up, Vladimir Putin will win the war and Europe will be at risk.”
“I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump. And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is really appalling,”
— Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah)
Hungary no longer opposes EU military fund for Ukraine at €5 billion
Bloomberg reports that Hungary will drop its objections to the creation of a €5 billion ($5.4 billion) Ukraine military assistance fund, paving the way for an agreement to revamp a vehicle that aims to steady supply of weapons to Kyiv, once member states sort out technical issues.
Budapest said it won’t stand in the way of a consensus at a meeting of European Union ambassadors on Wednesday, where a deal on a larger €50 billion financial aid package remains stuck, according to people familiar with the matter.
The decision would mark a reversal from earlier this week, when Hungary said it opposed revamping the EU’s current facility that reimburses member states for weapons they send to Ukraine. It coincides with growing pressure on Prime Minister Viktor Orban to approve Sweden’s accession to NATO. Hungary is the last hold-out after Turkey backed the Nordic nation’s bid earlier this week.
The proposed assistance fund would fix reimbursement rates and shift from using existing stocks of weapons to sourcing new ones through joint procurement contracts. The bloc’s foreign policy arm presented a proposal last week to revamp the current fund, known as the European Peace Facility, Bloomberg reported previously.
Hungarian government publishes poll with 98% allegedly supporting its anti-Ukrainian policy
The Hungarian government has published the results of a survey in which 98% of respondents allegedly support the anti-Ukrainian policy of the Hungarian government, in particular, regarding the war in Ukraine.
The results of the "consultation" show that in each of the 11 questions, the absolute majority, 97.5% and more, supported the position of the Hungarian government.
The Fidesz governing party emphasised that 98% of Hungarian voters supported a "ceasefire and peace for our neighbour" instead of supplying weapons, as well as opposed "migrant ghettos" and favoured "strengthening regulations for the protection of children".
Judging by the published data, more than 1.5 million votes were registered in the "national consultation" of the Hungarian government. This is less than 15% of the registered Hungarian voters and about the same as those who voted in the previous "consultation".
European Pravda uncovered it was possible to vote on the "consultation" several times and even without the proof of Hungarian citizenship, which allows one to express reasonable doubts about the representativeness of such a vote.
German foreign ministry concerned about extensive Russian disinformation on Twitter (X)
Experts at the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs have identified a systematic disinformation campaign favouring Russia on the social media platform Twitter (X). The government is concerned about potential interference in upcoming elections, Spiegel reports.
The editorial team obtained a confidential report from analysts in the Department of Strategic Communications at the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Through specialised software, they examined a vast dataset on Twitter from 20 December to 20 January.
Over that month, analysts identified over 50,000 accounts not belonging to real individuals and engaged in coordinated information campaigns in the German language. On certain days, these bots generated around 200,000 tweets per day. Their activity notably decreased on weekends and holidays, aligning with Russia's official days off.
A prevalent narrative in these posts suggests that Germany neglects the interests of its population to support Ukraine. Bots, posing as first-person accounts, express opinions such as finding it "strange that the government does more for other countries than its citizens."
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian, Polish military chiefs discuss training, combat experience exchange
On 25 January, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, held a telephone call with Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff of Poland, Zaluzhnyi reported.
Zaluzhnyi briefed Kukuła on the operational situation at the frontline and Ukrainian forces’ continued efforts to hold defensive positions and eliminate invading Russian manpower and hardware.
The two generals also discussed security risks and possible cooperation in the context of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation. “In particular, the training of our military in Poland and the exchange of combat experience,” Zaluzhnyi says.
Zaluzhnyi extended an invitation for General Kukuła to visit Ukraine to jointly collaborate with Ukrainian brigades and command centers. He also updated the Polish commander on Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to counter Russian missile strikes, underscoring strengthened air defenses as vital for the country.
Since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Poland has been a major supporter and key ally of Ukraine, supplying weapons and providing training for the Ukrainian soldiers. The collaboration between the two countries extends beyond military matters, with Poland championing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions and providing refuge to millions of Ukrainian refugees.
Two more countries join drone and electronic warfare coalition
The Ukrainian MOD today reported Sweden and the United Kingdom have joined the coalition of drones and electronic warfare, along with Ukraine and Latvia; the number of participants has increased to four countries.
It is reported that Paul Johnson, Swedish Defence Minister, announced this decision during a meeting of the Contact Group on Defence of Ukraine on 23 January.
The UK also announced its intention to join the coalition and become its co-leader with Latvia.
"Technology, not people, should fight. The drone coalition will be another step towards implementing this idea. This will save many lives. Strengthening and developing the production of unmanned systems will transform the army and make the latest technologies a reality today," said Kateryna Chernohorenko, Deputy Minister of Defence for digital development, digital transformation and digitalisation.
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