UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-14
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Aug 13 stated that day 902 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 111 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 63 air strikes, 489 drone strikes and more than 2,760 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Russia may be transferring troops from the front the Front to Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources claimed as of August 12 and 13 that elements of the Russian "Pyatnashka" Brigade's "Sarmat" Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Crops recently transferred to Kursk Oblast.
ISW has recently observed claims that elements of the "Sarmat" Battalion and other elements of the "Pyatnashka" Brigade and Russian Volunteer Corps are operating in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian milbloggers previously claimed that elements of the "Dikaya Division of Donbas," the "Pyatnashka" Brigade, the "Arbat" Separate Guards Special Purpose Battalion, and the "Night Wolves" drone detachment responded to the incursion and quickly redeployed to Kursk Oblast, and ISW had previously observed these units purportedly operating throughout Donetsk Oblast.
Irregular battalions such as the "Sarmat" Battalion are almost never fully staffed to the doctrinal end strength and even when deployed in full are still largely comprised of relatively small units. Some elements of these irregular units likely remain in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions as these are the Russian military's assessed priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine and the Kremlin and Russian military command are unlikely to pull entire units actively engaged in combat operations from these priority sectors to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
The Russian military command could also be redeploying units that were previously intended to relieve or reinforce frontline units from rear areas in Donetsk Oblast to Kursk Oblast, and such a redeployment could affect the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Russian military's assessed priority sectors over time. ISW would likely not observe confirmation of such re-deployments in the open source and is not prepared to offer assessments about the tempo of Russian operations in those sectors at this time.
Russian authorities appear to be largely relying on Russian conscripts, and elements of some regular and irregular military units pulled from less critical sectors of the frontline to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian Federal Security Service [FSB] border guards, Russian conscripts and reserves, and elements of the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz responded to the Ukrainian incursion on August 6 and 7, and Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz forces, including elements of the "Aida" Battalion, have continued to engage Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of August 14, 2024, the Russian occupiers attacked with 2 Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from the airspace of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. and 23 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type from the districts of Chauda - Crimea, Yeisk, Kursk - Russian Federation.
In an anti-aircraft battle, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, aviation, anti-aircraft missile units and EW means of the Air Force shot down 17 enemy UAVs in the Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Kharkiv and Zhytomyr regions.
Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed the enemy Su-34
On the night of Aug 14, in the territory of the Kursk region (Russia), during the execution of a combat mission, a Russian fighter-bomber Su-34 was destroyed by the forces and equipment of the Air Forces of Ukraine. The GSAFU reported.
Work on eliminating the occupiers, their equipment and weapons is going on relentlessly.
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukraine continues to advance in Russia.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and outlined several Ukrainian objectives of the operations in the area.
Zelensky stated on August 3 that Ukrainian forces "control" 74 localities in Kursk Oblast. It is unclear if Zelensky meant that Ukrainian forces are operating in 74 settlements or if he was referring to another type of geographic administrative units.
ISW has observed claims and geolocated footage indicating that Ukrainian forces are operating in or near roughly 41 settlements in Kursk Oblast as of August 13, although there are many extremely small settlements and localities within this area that ISW has not included in this count. Discrepancies between Ukrainian official reporting and ISW's observed claims and geolocated footage are not a refutation of Ukrainian official reporting but rather are a result of the inherent limitations of ISW's open-source methodology and commitment to using only publicly available information. ISW does not assess that Ukrainian forces control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of claimed Ukrainian advances according to the definition of "control" that ISW uses. Zelensky also stated that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast and grow Ukraine's "exchange fund," likely referring to Russian military personnel taken as prisoners of war (POWs).
Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi stated on August 13 that Ukraine is not interested in seizing territory in Kursk Oblast. Tykhyi stated that Ukraine needs to protect itself from Russian strikes and push Russian forces away from Russian border areas that Russia uses to strike Ukraine. Tykhyi also noted that Ukrainian operations into Kursk Oblast prevent the Russian military from transferring additional military units to Donetsk Oblast and complicate Russian military logistics.
Tykhyi emphasized that Ukraine is not violating international law and is within its rights to defend itself from Russian aggression, and US officials reiterated a similar sentiment on August 12 and 13. US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby and US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel stated on August 12 and 13 in response to questions about Russia's reactions to Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast that Russia is conducting a war of aggression against Ukraine and that a quick solution to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia would be for Russian forces to leave Ukraine.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast amid Russian attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.
Geolocated footage published on August 12 shows Ukrainian forces operating in eastern Plekhovo (south of Sudzha), and Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting was ongoing in the settlement as of the evening of August 12, although a milblogger later claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces from the settlement on August 13.
Geolocated footage published on August 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced east of Giri (southwest of Sudzha), although ISW cannot confirm a Ukrainian presence in Giri at this time.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack in Giri, however.
Geolocated footage published on August 12 and 13 showing Ukrainian forces operating well within the maximalist claimed limit of Ukrainian advances indicates that Ukrainian forces continue operating closer to the international border in Kursk Oblast and within Sudzha.
Russian milbloggers claimed on August 13 that Russian forces continued to repel Ukrainian attempts to cross the Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod Oblast (on the international border southeast of Sudzha and northwest of Belgorod City)
Ukraine captures over 100 Russian troops in Kursk Oblast in less than a day
Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk Oblast have captured more than 100 Russian troops since midnight on Aug. 14, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a report to President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kyiv Independent reports.
In a post on Telegram, Zelensky said he had received a morning report from Syrskyi and that "further progress" had been made in the incursion.
"(Ukrainian forces have advanced) from 1 to 2 kilometers in different areas from the beginning of the day," Syrskyi said.
"And more than 100 Russian soldiers have been captured during the same period."
Ukraine's cross-border incursion into neighboring Kursk Oblast began on Aug. 6, and by Aug. 13, Ukraine said it controlled 74 settlements in the region.
Zelensky said on Aug. 13 that "hundreds" of Russian soldiers have so far surrendered during the operation.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 12 Russian attacks over the last day near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Vovchansk and Tykhe 1 was repelled, 1 is ongoing.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 2 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Sinkivka and Novoseilivske,
Lyman axis: Russia attacked 11 times unsuccessfully in the direction of settlements of, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove and the Serebryanskyy Forest. 2 attacks continue.
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske and Spirne.
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 5 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora. 1 attack continues
Toretsk axis: There have been 7 Russian attacks over that last day with air support. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Toretsk and Zalizne. 2 attacks are still ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity of the enemy today occurred in the Pokrovsk sector. The enemy conducted 48 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day concentrating in the vicinity of Yelyzavetivka Hrodivka, Zhuravka and Zhelanne. 9 battles continue.
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance 4 times in the area of settlements Krasnohorivka and Kostiantinivka.
Vremivka axis: In this sector the situation is under control, Russian forces made 6 Russian assaults against Ukrainian positions near Vodiane and Vuhledar, 2 battles are ongoing.
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Inflation in Ukraine hits 0% in July, annual rate rises to 5.4% – statistics
Consumer price growth in Ukraine dropped to zero in July 2024, following a surge to 2.2% in June from 0.6% in May, the State Statistics Service reported on Friday. Interfax Ukraine reports.
The service said that in July 2023, consumer prices had decreased by 0.6%, so in annual terms, inflation as of July 2024 grew to 5.4%, up from 4.8% in June and 3.3% in May.
In July 2024, underlying inflation rose to 0.7% from 0.5% in June and 0.3% in May. Given that in July 2023, annual underlying inflation was zero, and it reached 5.7% at the end of last month, compared to 5% in June and 4.4% in May.
According to the statistics agency, prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 1% in July compared to June of this year, including tobacco products by 1.3% and alcoholic beverages by 0.7%.
Clothing and footwear became cheaper by 3.7%, including clothing by 4.1% and footwear by 3.4%.
Transport prices rose by 0.7%, mainly due to an increase in the cost of travel on road passenger transport by 0.8%, as well as fuel and lubricants by 0.6%.
As reported, inflation in Ukraine dropped to 5.1% in 2023 after spiking to 26.6% in 2022, up from 10.0% in 2021.
At the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine downgraded its inflation forecast for this year from 8.2% to 8.5%. The NBU expects inflation to rise to 7.9% by the end of the third quarter of this year. According to its forecasts, consumer price growth will continue to accelerate into the first quarter of 2025, reaching a peak of 9.7%, before beginning to decline.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine hits 4 Russian airbases in largest such attack
Ukrainian long-range drones hit four Russian airbases overnight on Aug. 14 in the largest attack on airfields in the war, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent.
Earlier the same day, Russia claimed it had downed over 110 Ukrainian drones in a massive strike, with local Telegram channels reporting explosions at the Savasleyka, Borisoglebsk, and Voronezh's Baltimore airbases.
The SBU source confirmed the attacks against the three aforementioned airbases and said an airbase in Kursk had also been targeted. Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk Oblast last week, marking the first instance of Ukrainian regular troops entering Russian soil during the war.
The large-scale drone attack was carried out by the SBU in cooperation with the Air Force, Special Operation Forces, Unmanned Systems Forces, and military intelligence agency (HUR), the source revealed to the Kyiv Independent.
The goal was to prevent Russia from using the airbases to strike Ukrainian military positions and settlements with KAB bombs. The consequences of the attacks are being determined, the source added.
The village of Savasleyka is located some 650 kilometers (400 miles) from the border with Ukraine, while Baltimore and Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast lie 180 and 260 kilometers (110 and 160 miles) from the Ukrainian border, respectively.
The Kursk airfield, also known as Khalino Airbase, hosts MiG-29 fighter jets and lies around 95 kilometers (60 miles) from Ukraine.
"Tonight was a 'fun' night at the airfields in Voronezh, Kursk, Savasleyka, and Borisoglebsk. We are waiting for satellite photos of destroyed Russian fighters and warehouses. The SBU continues to methodically weaken the Air Force component of the Russian military machine," the source said.
Russia to evacuate refugees from Kursk Oblast to Russian-occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Refugees evacuated from Kursk Oblast will be resettled in the Russian-occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Alexey Smirnov, the acting governor of the region, said on Aug. 13. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The Ukrainian military launched a surprise incursion across the border into Kursk Oblast on Aug. 6, bringing regular Ukrainian forces into Russia for the first time.
Although Moscow's reinforcements have begun to arrive on the battlefield, Ukraine has reportedly continued to advance farther into Kursk Oblast.
Yevhen Balytskyi, a Russian proxy leader operating in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, suggested equipping "sanatoriums and boarding houses on the shores of the Azov Sea, located from Berdiansk to Kyrylivka," according to Smirnov.
The first flights will be crewed to send people to temporary accommodation centers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and volunteers have arrived in Kursk Oblast to help residents, Smirnov added.
As of mid-2024, around 75% of the territory of the southern Ukrainian region is occupied by Russia, including major cities like Melitopol and Berdiansk, but not including the regional capital, Zaporizhzhia.
Russia's regional authorities said that Ukraine is in control of 28 settlements in Kursk Oblast as of Aug. 12, claiming that the incursion was up to 12 kilometers deep along a 40-kilometer front.
Putin reportedly appoints Aide Alexei Dyumin to supervise Kursk Oblast.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Russian Presidential Aid Aide Alexei Dyumin to supervise Russia’s “counterterrorism operation” in Kursk Oblast on August 12. Russian State Duma Deputy from Kursk Oblast Nikolai Ivanov claimed that his unnamed sources confirmed that Putin entrusted Dyumin with overseeing the counterterrorist operation in Kursk Oblast after inviting him for an evening meeting on August 12.
Dyumin was the only non-cabinet member not connected with the military or security services who was present at Putin‘s meeting with Russian military, security, and federal and regional government officials about the situation in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts on August 12.
Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers and Russian insider sources similarly claimed that Dyumin assumed full powers to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, but the Kremlin did not publish an official confirmation of Dyumin’s assignment. One insider source claimed that Putin directed Dyumin to coordinate all agencies involved in repelling Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
One Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that he had seen a state media report announcing that Dyumin became the commander of the Russian Sever (northern) direction in Ukraine, but later claimed that he received information to the contrary.
Dyumin is a trusted official within Putin’s close circle who is Putin’s former bodyguard and former Tula Oblast governor and reportedly played a decisive role in negotiations to end the Wagner Group armed rebellion in June 2023.
Dyumin’s appointment is not inherently noteworthy as it is likely part of Putin’s efforts to ensure that his agencies are actively working in a coordinated fashion and under the direct control of his presidential administration to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and that he remains apprised of the situation.
State of emergency declared in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast
A state of emergency at the regional level has been introduced throughout the entire territory of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. Euromaidan Press reports.
The governor of the Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said they plan to declare a federal-level state of emergency.
Ukraine started its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region a week ago. On the second day after the border breakthrough in Russia’s Kursk region, a state of emergency was declared.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russia moves troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk region
Russia moves troops from its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad to the Kursk region. Miltarnyi reports.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas tells Zelensky in Kyiv that Russia has withdrawn some units from Kaliningrad to deter the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region.
During his conversation with President Zelensky, he expressed respect for Ukraine’s actions in the north and said that currently no one is saying that the “red lines” have been crossed.
In his opinion, the next good sign from partners would be permission to use long-range weapons: “We are lobbying for this. I am convinced that we should do this.”
“I say to the Lithuanian people: look at how Ukrainians are fighting for you, because due to their struggle, they need to withdraw their troops from Kaliningrad. We even call it the ‘demilitarization’ of Kaliningrad, which is happening thanks to the bravery of your military, thanks to your decisions,” Laurynas Kasčiūnas said.
Belarus to transfer military equipment from its own military units to Russia
Alexander Lukashenko ordered the transfer of some military equipment from Belarusian units to the Russian military. Militarnyi reports.
The Belarusian publication Belnovosti reported on this with reference to a source in the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.
According to the source, this is due to an urgent request from the Russian side due to losses and lack of equipment, both in the Kursk region and in other sectors.
This is not the first time that self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has transferred equipment and ammunition to Russia.
However, as the publication notes, while in 2022 Belarus transferred ammunition and equipment from warehouses, now it is transferring it from its own military units.
Nord Stream sabotage: Germany issues arrest warrant
A Ukrainian national, whose last known address was in Poland, is being sought by German authorities for the 2022 attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. He is believed to have acted with two accomplices. DW reports.
German authorities have issued an arrest warrant over the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines nearly two years ago, according to German news outlets ARD, Süddeutsche Zeitung and Die Zeit.
In an investigation published Wednesday, the outlets reported that the suspect is a Ukrainian diving instructor, named only as Volodymyr Z. for privacy reasons.
It is alleged he attacked the pipelines in tandem with at least two others, who are also believed to be Ukrainian citizens.
The suspect was believed to last be living in Poland, but Polish authorities said they could not act on the warrant because he had left the country.
MILITARY & TECH
Russia admits failures in “Pantsir” gun system
Russian defense officials have acknowledged the limitations of the gun systems on their “Pantsir” air defense complex, leading to a shift in strategy towards the use of mini-missiles to counter drones.
This was reported by Defense Express, which noted the significant technological shortcomings of Russia’s military-industrial complex in comparison to Western technologies from the 1980s.
At the recent “Army-2024” military-technical forum, which was closed to the public by Russia’s Ministry of Defense, the latest version of the Pantsir system, the “Pantsir-SMDE,” was unveiled. Unlike its predecessors, this version is equipped only with missiles, marking the removal of the system’s traditional 30mm automatic cannons. The decision to exclude the cannons is particularly telling, as the Pantsir-SMDE now relies entirely on 12 57E6E missiles.
Interestingly, the Pantsir-SMDE is still being promoted as an effective anti-drone system, but with a new approach. Instead of using traditional artillery, the system is now intended to deploy up to 48 small TKB-1055 missiles per vehicle. These mini-missiles are claimed to be capable of intercepting targets at ranges of 0.5 to 7 kilometers and altitudes of up to 5 kilometers. In comparison, the 57E6E missiles have a range of 1.2 to 20 kilometers and can reach altitudes of up to 15 kilometers.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!