UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-13
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 12 stated that day 870 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 136 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 45 air strikes, 429 drone strikes and 3,408 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
ISW - Ukraine is contesting the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its July 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front, however, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations even while largely on the defensive depending on the arrival of Western aid.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on July 11 that a senior NATO official stated that Ukraine would have to wait for more Western security assistance and deploy more of its forces to the frontline before conducting counteroffensive operations and that Ukraine would likely not be able to conduct these operations until 2025.
A senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces would remain on the defensive for the next six months (until January 2025) and that Russian forces will be unlikely to gain significant ground during this time.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces currently remain unlikely to achieve operationally significant gains in Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's articulated theory of victory aims for Russian forces to make consistent gradual creeping advances instead of pursuing rapid operationally significant maneuver.
Ukraine is currently addressing its manpower challenges and forming several new brigades that Ukraine could commit to support contesting the initiative, and the provision of Western security assistance needed for equipping these brigades will determine when and at what scale Ukraine can contest the initiative.
The arrival of Western-provided aid to the frontlines has allowed Ukrainian forces to stabilize critical areas of the front, and Ukrainian forces have conducted tactically significant and successful localized counterattacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast and towards Kreminna (in the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border area) starting in mid-May 2024.
Ukrainian forces will likely be able to intensify both the scale and regularity of counterattacks over the coming months as further Western security assistance arrives at the frontline and as Ukraine continues to build out reserves and new brigades.
Russian forces are currently attempting to maintain consistent offensive pressure on Ukraine to force Ukrainian forces to commit manpower and materiel to defensive operations instead of accumulating these resources for counteroffensive operations.
Russian forces are attempting to achieve this effect through consistent offensive operations throughout eastern and northeastern Ukraine that stretch Ukrainian forces, but nevertheless, Ukrainian forces are leveraging their capabilities and exploiting Russian vulnerabilities to conduct tactical counterattacks.
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Air Force Daily Report
On the night of July 13, 2024, the enemy attacked with 5 "Shahed-131/136" type UAVs from Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
Four enemy UAVs were shot down by units of mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. The fifth - left the airspace of Ukraine in the direction of the Gomel region of Belarus.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 11 assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsia and Vovchansk. All attempts were unsuccessful
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 6 times against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane and Berestove. The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: In this sector today, the enemy was quite active. Russian forces 16 times attacked in the area of Makiivka, Nevske Terny, Torske and the Serebryanskyy Forest
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 4 assaults in the vicinity of Bilhorivka, Vyimka and Rozdolivka. The situation is under control.
Kramatorsk axis: The enemy attacked 11 times near the settlements of Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Andriivka , all attacks were suppressed.
Toretsk axis: The situation is tense in this sector. Russia attacked 19 times near Pivnichne, Toretsk, Zalizne and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The highest intensity of combat remains in this sector. The enemy conducted 40 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Oleksandropil, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Lozuvatske, Prohes, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy 17 times unsuccessfully attacked our positions near Krasnohorivka and Paraskovievka. None were successful.
Vremivka axis: The Russians conducted 5 offensive actions near Urozhaine and Vodiane
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 2 attacks in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
UN demands Russia to leave nuclear plant
The UN General Assembly has passed a resolution demanding that Russia withdraw its military and personnel from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and return control of it to Ukraine. AP reports.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is the largest in Europe, and supplies one fifth of Ukraine's energy. Russian troops took control of it shortly after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The resolution also reiterates the assembly’s demands for Russia to immediately “cease its aggression against Ukraine” and withdraw all troops, and again reaffirms the 193-member world body’s commitment to Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.”
The resolution was approved by a vote of 99-9 with 60 countries abstaining and 25 countries not voting.
Russia was joined by Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Syria, Burundi and North Korea in opposing the resolution. China, India, South Africa and many Middle Eastern countries were among those abstaining.
The resolution expresses “grave concern over the precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.” It says returning the plant to Ukraine’s full control will ensure its safety and security and enable the International Atomic Energy Agency “to conduct safe, efficient and effective safeguards.”
Fears of a nuclear catastrophe have been at the forefront since Russian troops occupied the plant shortly after invading Ukraine in February 2022. Zaporizhzhia, which has six nuclear reactors, sits in Russian-controlled territory in southeastern Ukraine near the front lines and has been continually caught in crossfire.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia threatens to destroy Kyiv hydroelectric station
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova's statements about the destruction of the dams of the Kyiv hydroelectric power plant and the Kaniv reservoir are intended to blackmail Ukrainian society into accepting peace on Russia's terms. Espreso reports.
The odious Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, claimed that Kyiv is preparing to destroy the dams of the Kyiv hydroelectric power plant and the Kaniv reservoir in order to blame Moscow for it.
Zakharova's words, of course, should be taken very, very seriously: a cynical foreign ministry spokesperson would not just say that, it is obvious that her words contain part of the plans that are already being thought about in Moscow and for which they want to put the responsibility on the political leadership of Ukraine, on Ukraine as such, and, of course, on Ukraine's Western allies, who are the biggest enemies of the authoritarian Russian state in its attempt to realize Vladimir Putin's ambitions and return to the borders of the Soviet Union in 1991.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian kamikaze drone flies deep inside Belarus, whereabouts unknown
A Russian Shahed kamikaze drone targeting Ukraine overnight on July 13 appears to have veered off course and flew more than 350 kilometers over Belarusian airspace, according to reports. The Belarusian Hajun Project reported.
Ukrainian Air Force Commander, Mykola Oleschuk, said five drones were deployed in the attack, four of which were shot down while the fifth "left the airspace of Ukraine in the direction of the Gomel region of Belarus," he said in a post on Telegram.
The Belarusian Hajun monitoring group later reported it had flown 250 kilometers "over Gomel and Zhlobyn, entered the Mogilev region, and then the Minsk region."
It also said a Belarusian Mi-24 helicopter and Su-30 fighter jet were scrambled to intercept the drone before it "presumably flew to Vitebsk."
"What happened to the Shahed after is currently unknown," They added.
The group said this was the second such incident in two days. A mystery indeed…
SBU drones strike Russian oil depot in Rostov again
Drones launched by Ukraine's State Security Service were responsible for an overnight attack on an oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast, an intelligence agency source told the Kyiv Independent on July 13.
"Last night turned out to be very hot for the Russian oil depot in the Tsimlyansky district of Rostov (Oblast), at the facility where various brands of gasoline and diesel fuel with a total volume of 12,500 cubic meters were stored." they said.
Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubev earlier talked about an attack on the facility, reporting a large fire but claiming there were no casualties.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed air defenses shot down two drones over Rostov Oblast, one over Belgorod Oblast, and one over Kursk Oblast.
"SBU drones continue to implement 'economic sanctions' against Russia's energy complex, which is providing for the war in Ukraine," the intelligence agency source said, adding: "And these 'sanctions' will only increase."
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Australia chides Russia for meddling in alleged spy case
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Saturday told Russia to "back off" after its embassy claimed that the arrest of a couple accused of spying for the Kremlin aimed only to incite "anti-Russian paranoia." DW reports.
The couple — a 40-year-old woman and her 62-year-old husband, who both hold Russian passports in addition to Australian citizenship — were arrested at home on Thursday.
The two are accused of accessing material from the Australian military that relates to national security.
Albanese responded to the Russian Embassy's criticism by saying the Kremlin had "no credibility" and that it had deployed spies across the world.
"Russia can get the message: Back off," he said, calling on Moscow to "stop interfering in domestic affairs of other sovereign nations."
Albanese, whose country is supporting Ukraine as it fights against the ongoing Russian invasion of its territory, also slammed the Kremlin for its attack on its neighbor.
"How about you get out of Ukraine and stop the illegal and immoral war you're engaged in?" he said.
"This is a country that has no respect for international law, and they should be regarded with contempt, which is what I have for them," he added.
The prime minister's remarks came after the Russian Embassy wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the arrests and media coverage were "intended to launch another wave of anti-Russian paranoia in Australia."
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
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