UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-21
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
Ukraine-Russia war: Rat bite fever strikes Russian troops
The Telegraph reported on Dec. 20 that Russian soldiers are suffering from an outbreak of rat-bite fever, according to Ukraine’s defence intelligence (DIU).
Transmitted by dust from rodent excrement, symptoms of the disease include migraines, high temperatures, reduced blood pressure, rashes, vomiting and bleeding from the eyes.
The streptococcal infection is said to have spread rapidly on the Kupyansk front due to complaints initially falling on deaf ears, as Russian commanders believed soldiers were trying to avoid fighting. DIU appears bemused by the situation.
“In the Kupyansk direction of the front of the occupiers, rat-bite fever is mowing down en masse. As a result, rat-bite fever significantly reduced the fighting ability of the Russian rats.”
— Ukraine’s defence intelligence (DIU)
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Russians continue attempts to drive Ukrainian Armed Forces from eastern bank of Dnipro River
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their update as of 18:00 on Dec. 20, stated that over the past day, Russian forces carried out 29 assaults in an attempt to drive Ukrainian units back from recent gains they have achieved on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky. Their attempts were not successful. Ukrainian units continued to hold their positions and inflicted direct and indirect fire on the attackers which caused them to suffer significant losses.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Military proposes to mobilise an additional 450,000-500,000
Ukrainian military officials proposed at a recent meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff that an extra 450,000-500,000 people should be mobilised, but the issue is still being worked on, President Zelenskyy said at his end-of-year press conference on Dec. 19.
"This is a question from our military, the Chief of Staff and the General Staff. They raised the issue of mobilisation at a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. A very sensitive issue, I think. They appealed regarding the defence of our state, potential counter-offensive actions and the shortage [of people]. And they suggested mobilising an additional 450,000-500,000 people."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Describing these numbers as "very significant", Zelenskyy said he had told the Staff that he needed more arguments to support the move because "this is a question of people, fairness, defence capability and finances".
Defence Minister wants to mobilise Ukrainian men abroad
Rustem Umerov, in an interview with German media that could have consequences for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men living abroad.
“All Ukrainian men of conscription age from 25 to 60 years should be invited to appear at recruitment points Armed Forces of Ukraine. We want justice for all, because it concerns our own country. We will send them an invitation”
Rustem Umerov, Minister of Defense of Ukraine
The minister threatened sanctions on those who did not comply with the request to join the army. However, what will be the sanctions for non-appearance, it is still unclear: “We are still discussing what should happen if they do not come voluntarily.”
More men aged 18-60 have recently come back to Ukraine
Colonel Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine emphasised that there has been no increase in the number of border crossings by Ukrainian men aged 18-60 to leave the country – on the contrary, more men came back to Ukraine in December.
The analysis of the first weeks of December also shows that Ukrainian men aged 18-60 crossed the border more to enter Ukraine than to leave. Demchenko said “It is a mistake to assume that men are exclusively trying to leave Ukraine."
Demchenko explained that about 45-50% of the men crossing the border are drivers of vehicles engaged in international transport of goods and passengers and registered in the Shliakh system (a special e-system to register those drivers and volunteers who can leave the country and have an obligation to come back)
Ukraine must liberate all its territories, no changes to strategy
President Zelenskyy has stressed during his end-of-year press conference on Dec.19 that the military leadership will not change its strategy of seeking to liberate all Russian-occupied territories, nor will it abandon its commitment to restoring the borders established at the time of independence.
An AFP journalist asked whether, given the "lack of breakthroughs on the battlefield", Zelenskyy has considered changing his strategy, particularly with regard to restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders, or changing the military leadership.
"The strategy cannot be changed according to our Constitution. These are our territories. As for the tactics, we can change the approach after we review the outcome of our actions in Ukraine's south in 2023. We will get a clear picture by the end of the year… Apologies, but our further plans and next steps will be kept to ourselves for now."
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Three humanitarian organisations attacked by Russia shelling on Kherson
Warehouses of two humanitarian organisations were destroyed and another one damaged as a result of the Russian attack on Kherson on the night of 19-20 December according to a statement on the UN website.
"I am horrified by the news that another wave of indiscriminate strikes by the Russian Federation has damaged facilities and critical supplies of at least three humanitarian organisations in Kherson today.
The warehouses of the Ukrainian Red Cross Society and the local NGO Shchedryk were burned to the ground, destroying much-needed relief supplies. The facilities of the international NGO HEKS/EPER were also impacted. Today’s strikes have also damaged homes, a health facility and left civilians, yet again, injured in Kherson.
Indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas are prohibited under international humanitarian law. Humanitarian workers, facilities and assets are protected under international humanitarian law."
— Denise Brown, humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine
Brown said the attacks affect the ability of humanitarian organisations to do their job to save lives, not to mention that they deprive civilians of access to assistance when they need it most.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
German prosecutors request to seize Russian entity’s €720 million
The German Federal Prosecutor’s office has filed an unprecedented request seeking to confiscate over 720 million euros ($750 million) in Russian funds currently held in Germany.
According to Spegel, Attorney General Peter Frank submitted the seizure request to a Frankfurt court in order to transfer the frozen assets to Germany’s national budget. submitted the seizure request to a Frankfurt court in order to transfer the frozen assets to Germany’s national budget.
The Russian funds in question belong to a subsidiary of the Moscow Stock Exchange which was sanctioned by the EU in June 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the day the sanctions listing was published, the Russian entity allegedly attempted to withdraw the over $750 million it had deposited with J.P. Morgan’s German office by transferring it to an affiliated Russian firm. However, the transaction did not go through, given the new EU sanctions.
Russia preparing major offensive in Avdiivka as ground freezes, warns White House
White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby has urged the US Congress to approve funding for Ukraine as swiftly as possible.
“We have seen that the Russians actually want to conduct offensive operations, particularly in the East, around Avdiivka. We have every reason to believe that as the ground freezes towards the end of January and end of February, that will make it easier for Russian forces to go on the move,”
— John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator
He warned that similar to last year, Russia is targeting vital infrastructure in Ukraine, turning winter cold into a weapon against civilians. Urging swift action, Kirby emphasized the need to enhance Ukrainian air defense and called on the US Congress to promptly pass a new aid package for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s entry into NATO, EU vital for Poland’s security
Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasised that Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU aligns perfectly with Poland’s national interests.
He also expressed Poland’s support for Ukraine’s EU accession and hoped for active Polish involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
“We would gain another powerful military partner in NATO, one with vast military experience. Ukraine undeniably possesses one of the world’s best and, in combat terms, most experienced armies, utilizing cutting-edge technologies, including unmanned systems. This is also of great significance for our security,”
— Andrzej Duda, President of Poland
The remarks were made during the Polish National Security Council meeting, attended by the new Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, and his government members.
The statement is significant due to the recent remarks of a member of Duda’s PiS party who said it was not in Poland’s interests for Ukraine to join the EU.
MILITARY & TECH
Japan may allow supply of Japanese-made Patriot missiles to Europe
Japan will consider allowing the supply of Japanese-made Patriot missiles to Europe and other countries, which could help Ukraine in its war against Russia, Japanese media reports.
The Japanese government will update guidelines on defence exports as early as Friday, allowing shipments of missiles and other equipment made under licence to countries where those patent holders are based. Currently, only components of licensed equipment can be sent to the U.S.
Japan will also allow recipient countries to transfer equipment to a third country with prior approval, except to those actively involved in an armed conflict, such as Ukraine and Israel.
While this would not allow Washington to directly send Kyiv Japanese-built Patriot missiles, it would give the U.S. more room to keep supplying Ukraine with American-made weapons.
Ukrainian company plans to deploy licenced production of Western infantry fighting vehicles
Vladyslav Belbas, CEO of the Ukrainian armament manufacturer Ukrainska Bronetekhnika (Ukrainian Armoured Equipment) Ukraine’s largest private arms manufacturer wants to establish the production of ASCOD infantry fighting vehicles in the country.
Belbas said that the company is currently developing the possibility of producing components and assembling the Spanish-Austrian BMP ASCOD under licence.
ASCOD infantry fighting vehicles in various modifications are in service with four countries in the world: Spain, Austria, the Philippines and the United Kingdom. Last year, ASCOD-based machines were ordered by the United States.
The Vampire Drone - Ukraine’s heavy-hitting night bomber
A new video regarding the effectiveness of the “Vampire” FPV drone appeared on French TV. It started life spraying fertiliser as an agricultural drone, but after a revamp by Ukrainian military engineers it has become one of the most powerful drones in the country’s arsenal.
Dubbed the "Vampire" because it is flown only under cover of darkness, its operators say it is capable of carrying heavy explosives that can be used to target tanks and other armoured vehicles.
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