UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-07-26
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 25 stated that day 883 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 126 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 66 air strikes, 430 drone strikes and more than 3,400 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of July 26, 2024, the enemy hit an Iskander-M ballistic missile from the Rostov Region. - Russian Federation over Donetsk region and attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type from the directions: Cape Chauda - Crimea, Kursk - Russian Federation.
Radio engineering troops of the Air Force identified and escorted 22 "martyrs". 20 of them were shot down by anti-aircraft defence in the Kherson, Sumy, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions.
The air attack was repulsed by mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, anti-aircraft missile troops and units of the Air Defense Forces of the Air Force.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 9 Russian attacks near Hlyboke and Vovchansk. 2 battles continue.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance 8 times against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka,, and Stelmakhivka. The situation is under control.
Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 12 times in the areas of Makiivka and Nevske the Serebryanskyy Forest
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 6 assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske, Spirne and Fedorivk. One attack is still ongoing, the situation is under control.
Kramatorsk axis: In the Chasiv Yar sector Russian forces attacked 13 times in the area of Hyrhorivka, Maiske. Kalynivka and Chasiv Yar. 4 attacks are still ongoing.
Toretsk axis: There have been 8 unsuccessful Russian attacks over that last day, All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Pivinchne, Zalizne and Nui-York. The situation is under control.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity over the past day was in this sector. The enemy conducted 31 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Oleksandropil, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrivka,Tymofiivka, Ivanivka, Vesele, Novoselivka Persha and Yasnobrodivka.
Kurakhove axis: The enemy 15 times attacked our positions near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka and Kostiantynivka, 12 were unsuccessful, 3 are ongoing.
ISW - Ukrainian forces destroy major Russian mechanised assault in Donetsk Oblast
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its July 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanised assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24.
Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanised assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.
A Ukrainian brigade operating in the area reported that the Russian assault involved “11 tanks, 45 armored combat vehicles, a rare ‘Terminator’ armoured fighting vehicle, 12 motorcycles, and roughly 200 personnel.”
The Ukrainian forces reportedly used a combination of artillery, drones, and minefields to counter the attack. The brigade claims to have “damaged or destroyed six Russian tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, and all 12 motorcycles,” forcing the Russian forces to retreat after the first wave of vehicles was destroyed.
ISW notes that this level of mechanised assault has not been observed in the region since March 2024, and larger operations have not been seen since the beginning of the Avdiivka offensive in October 2023.
Vremivka axis: The Russians conducted 32 offensive actions near Velyka Novosika and Vodiane 3 confrontations continue.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 4 attacks in the vicinity of Novoandriivka and Mala Tokmachka, Mali Scherbaky and Yehorivka
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: : In this sector, 2 attempts of the Russians to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnieper were also unsuccessful.
Krynky almost completely destroyed, but Ukrainian defenders continue combat missions nearby
Dmytro Lykhovii, spokesman for the Tavriia Operational Group of Forces, has noted that the Ukrainian defence forces continue combat missions on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, including near the village of Krynky and on the islands in the area. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
"The fact that the positions of the Ukrainian forces in the village of Krynky were destroyed to the ground as a result of intense, prolonged enemy attacks and airstrikes was also taken into account. The village itself was almost completely destroyed. There is no possibility to hold the defence there, no possibility to cling to any fortifications, and therefore Ukrainian defenders are now on other designated positions and footholds, as well as on the left bank of the Dnipro River."
Lykhovii said that in the entire operational area of the Tavriia Operational Group of Forces, the Prydniprovske front is "the hottest, but relatively speaking, there are enemy assaults there every day".
"There are relatively more of them [assaults – ed.] compared to other sections of our line of contact in our operational area, but these figures are measured in numbers of about three or four per day, sometimes two. Sometimes there can be about a dozen... This is a little less intense than it was before, and the Russians' attempts to advance to these footholds continue, but they remain unsuccessful."
Ukraine says missile forces hit Russian air base in Crimea
Ukraine said on Friday its missile forces carried out a strike on a Russian military airfield in Crimea that has been used for long-range attacks against it, the latest in a series of blows to the Russian military on the occupied peninsula. Reuters reports.
Ukraine has ramped up long-range attacks on Crimea in recent months and says the Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet, which is headquartered in Sevastopol, has been forced to move its combat vessels to safer harbour elsewhere.
The Ukrainian military's general staff said in a statement that Russia's Saky airfield in western Crimea was the latest target to be struck and that it was assessing the aftermath.
"This is one of the operational airfields that Russia uses to control the airspace, in particular the Black Sea, and for launching airstrikes on Ukrainian territory," it said.
The statement did not say which weapon was used but that the attack was carried out by Ukraine's missile forces alongside other contingents. There was no immediate comment from Russia's defence ministry or local Moscow-installed officials.
Almost two-and-a-half years into Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine has claimed to have struck in recent months a string of Russian air defence systems deployed in Crimea, such as S-300 and S-400 units.
On Tuesday, Ukraine said it had significantly damaged Moscow's last freight ferry capable of carrying rail carriages from Russia's Krasnodar region to Crimea, a setback for Russian supply routes to the peninsula.
Kyiv said the ferry had been used for military purposes. Ukraine's navy also said the strike had forced Russia to withdraw all its warships from the Azov Sea.
Ukraine says it has destroyed or damaged 27 Russian warships in the Black Sea and near Crimea during the war. Ukraine's navy spokesman said earlier this month that Russia's last naval patrol ship had been observed leaving the peninsula.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian drones knock out Ukrainian power facilities near Kyiv
Russia attacked Ukrainian energy facilities in two regions between the capital Kyiv and the Russian border with drones overnight, leaving tens of thousands of people without power, Ukraine's national power grid operator said on Friday. Reuters reports.
The governor of one of the regions, Chernihiv, told the national television at least 15 people were wounded and some infrastructure and a dormitory were damaged during an attack on the town of Nizhyn, without giving more details.
More than 68,000 consumers in certain districts of Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions lost power, Ukrenergo said. In the morning, about 30,000 consumers were still without power after what were the latest of near daily Russian attacks on the power system since the spring.
Overall, Ukrainian air defences destroyed 20 out of 22 Russian attack drones launched overnight, Ukraine's air force chief said. Most of the drones were shot down in the southern Kherson and northeastern Sumy regions, along with the two in the north.
Emergency services said an overnight attack on Kherson had damaged six residential buildings and caused significant fires in open areas.
Russia has attacked energy facilities across Ukraine with missiles and drones over the past few months, causing blackouts in many regions and forcing Kyiv to start large-scale electricity imports from the European Union.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian losses in Ukraine causing 'serious problems' for recruitment
Russian personnel and materiel losses in Ukraine are so high the Kremlin is having "serious problems" recruiting new contract soldiers, and is relying on decommissioning Soviet-era weapons as it can't produce enough modern versions, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) spokesperson said on July 26. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Speaking on national TV, Andrii Yusov said the situation will soon have an impact on the frontline situation and Russia's ability to effectively wage war.
Russian losses in Ukraine reached "conflict highs" during May and June, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on July 12.
On July 18, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC that around 20,000 Russian troops were killed during Russia's failed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast.
"They can replenish these losses," Yusov said, adding: "But there are already serious problems with the recruitment of new contract soldiers.
"The aggressor state is coming up with new incentives at various levels to attract new cannon fodder. But this machine is starting to malfunction."
As Russia has sought to replenish its military, decimated by high losses in Ukraine, authorities have implemented financial perks to incentivize enlistment.
Russian Central Bank raises interest rate to 18%
Russia's Central Bank announced on July 26 that it is to raise the interest rate from 16% to 18%, as the Russian economy continues to experience accelerated inflation amid its war in Ukraine. The Bank of Russia itself reported
"Inflation has accelerated and is developing significantly above the Bank of Russia’s April forecast," the press service of Russia's Central Bank said in a statement.
"Growth in domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services," the statement continued. "Labour shortages continue to grow."
Data from Russia's Federal Statistics Service shows that the country has faced six months in a row of growing prices that particularly impact the cost of fuel and food. On average, vegetables cost around 19% more than in June 2023.
Russia's annual inflation rate for June was 8.59%, up from 8.30% the previous month. The figure is significantly higher than that of the U.S., which is expected to be around 3.1% for the month of June.
Russia is burdened by enormous defence spending stemming from its full-scale war against Ukraine, which rose to almost 30% of its budget in 2024.
Russia's "monetary policy needs to be tightened further," so that the inflation rate can be brought towards the target of 4%, the Central Bank said.
Russia's Central Bank claimed that "consumer activity remains high amid a significant increase in households' incomes and positive consumer sentiment."
Russian ex-deputy defence minister arrested on corruption charges
Dmitry Bulgakov, who formerly served as a Russian deputy defence minister until September 2022, was arrested on July 26 on corruption-related charges, Russia's Investigative Committee reported. The Kyiv Independent reports.
In his previous position, Bulgakov was in charge of the military's logistics chains during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. His dismissal was widely seen as a response to the logistic failures that accompanied the early months of Russia's all-out war.
The details of the accusations against Bulgakov were not specified, but the Investigative Committee said he had been remanded into pre-trial detention in Moscow's Butyrka prison.
Bulgakov's arrest was the latest in a series of investigations and detentions of former and current officials from Russia's Defense Ministry, in what some have characterised as a "purge."
The day before, Andrei Belkov, the head of the military construction company linked to Russia's Defense Ministry, was arrested on suspicion of corruption.
Belkov was previously supervised by former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who is currently also under investigation on corruption-related charges.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
EU to transfer 1.5 Billion Euros In Proceeds To Ukraine From Frozen Russian Assets
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced that the European Union will send Ukraine 1.5 billion euros ($1.63 billion) that represent revenues from Russian assets frozen by the 27-member bloc. Radio Liberty reports
"Today we transfer 1.5 billion in proceeds from immobilized Russian assets to the defense and reconstruction of Ukraine," von der Leyen wrote on Twitter. "There is no better symbol or use for the Kremlin's money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live."
Following Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West froze some 276 billion euros ($300 billion) in sovereign Russian wealth funds and the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized countries last month decided to service a $50 billion loan for Ukraine with proceeds generated by Russia's frozen assets, prompting Moscow to threaten legal action.
On July 25, EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said the G7 was likely to have a framework deal on the loan for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction by October, according to Euractiv.com.
MILITARY & TECH
After Missile Strike on Saky, russians Lament Lack of Shelters
The recent strike on the Saky airfield in russian-occupied Crimea has dealt a significant blow to both the facility and the military aviation stationed there. This impact is highlighted in a post by Fighterbomber, a russian military blogger, who provides an insightful account of the events on the July 26 night.
He laments that airfield services in general must have at least two full-time armored vehicles on standby to deal with the evacuation of the wounded, "when it is impossible to do it by other means," referring to a situation where the personnel needs to be rescued amidst exploding ammunition.
This detail says quite a lot about what was happening at this russian air base after the strike. Besides, Fighterbomber says the airfield staff should have first aid kits at hand and the skills to use them.
An interesting observation made by Fighterbomber is that the delay between the reconnaissance activities and the subsequent strike by the Ukrainian Defense Forces has now been shortened to just six hours. Consequently, he suggests that russian combat aircraft must be relocated every five hours to avoid being targeted.
Additionally aircraft remain parked in the open, not in bomb proof shelters.
Defense Express stresses, the main problem with those is that there's currently no developed design of shelter large enough to accomodate the Su-27 aircraft and derived models — Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35. This problem has existed since as early as the 1980s and has never been addressed, the primary issue being the high cost of such renovations.
Another concern raised by Fighterbomber and other russian milbloggers is the potential existence of a Ukrainian spy network in Crimea. One of the war influencers pointed out that tourists are taken to beach camping sites right through the Saky air base. And in general, the situation when military facilities are located next to tourist facilities is a local common practice, undermining any secrecy efforts at the root.
Grumpy here - It is shocking that Russia could have so much difficulty grasping that the native populace of a country they invaded might not be on their side…
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