UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-26
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on May 25 stated that day 823 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 110 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 5 missile strikes, 34 air strikes, 381 drone strikes and 2433 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
12 ROCKETS AND 31 STRIKE UAVs shot down
On the night of May 26, 2024 Russian occupiers launched a missile-aviation strike on Ukraine with the use of 14 air base missiles and more than three dozen attack BPLAs, including:
- 2 hypersonic missiles x-47 m2 "Kinjal" from planes miG-31k (launches from the airspace of tambov region (Russia);
- 12 winged missiles X-101/X-555 launched from Tu-95 MS strategic bombers (launch district Saratov region (Russia);
- 31 "Shahed-131/136" UAVs (launched - Primors нийko-Akhtarsk, Eysk (Russia), Cape Chauda (TOT Qirim).
As a result of anti-air combat, anti-aircraft missile units, fighter aviation, REB equipment of the Air Force and mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine were shot down:
- 12 cruise missiles H-101/H-555;
- 31 Shahed-131/136 UAVs
The targets were destroyed in Mykolaiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhia, Khmelnytsia, Kirovograd, Vinnytsia and Chernihiv regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: Fighting is ongoing in the areas of the settlements of Neskučhne and Starytske.
Hasty start and limited manpower hinder Russian progress in Kharkiv offensive
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its May 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian and Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces established "combat control" over an unspecified section of the border where Russian forces had initially crossed into northern Kharkiv Oblast following the start of Russian offensive operations on May 10.
A Ukrainian commander operating in the Lyptsi direction (north of Kharkiv City) stated that Ukrainian forces have completely stopped Russian offensive operations in the Strilecha-Hlyboke direction (north of Lyptsi) and that Ukrainian forces are now focused on regaining territory in the area.
ISW assesses that the likely premature start of Russian offensive operations appears to have undermined Russian success in northern Kharkiv Oblast. The Northern Grouping of Forces, even at the upper limit of its reported end strength, will lack the necessary manpower needed to conduct a successful operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City. However, Russian forces continue to leverage their sanctuary in Russian airspace to strike Kharkiv City to devastating effect, likely as part of efforts to depopulate the city and demoralize Ukrainians.
Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 14 attacks near the area of Sinkivka, Petropavlivka and Rozivka.
Lyman axis: Defense Forces successfully repelled 5 attacks of Russian occupiers in the areas of Terny, Torske and Serebryansky Forest.
Siversk axis: Russian invaders made 13 assaults in this area over the last day. A tense situation remains in the area of Bílogorívki, where the enemy tries to infiltrate our defense. At the same time, Ukrainian defenders have taken a number of measures to strengthen defensive positions.
Kramatorsk axis: The Russian aggressor attacked the Defense Forces units 12 times in the direction of Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Klishchievka. Never been successful. The fight is currently underway in the area of Andriyivka. The situation is under control.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: Here throughout the day, supported by aviation, the aggressor carried out 23 assault operations and attempted to increase significant fire control efforts virtually along the entire line of contact. Intense fights continue in the area of Novooleksandrivki. Ukrainian Defense Forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation.
Kurakhove axis: There were 14 combat clashes over the last day. Russians are attempting to advance in the areas of settlements of Krasnogorivka, Paraskoviyivka and Vodiyane. Defense forces are taking immediate measures to stabilize the situation and contain the prevailing enemy.
Vremika axis: Russia made one unsuccessful attempt to break through the defense of our troops in the direction of Staromaiorske.
Orikhiv axis: Russia attacked three times unsuccessfully in the areas of Robotyne and Novoandríivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Orikhiv axis: Russia attacked three times unsuccessfully in the areas of Robotyne and Novoandríivka.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Horrific Russian attack on Shopping mall in Kharkiv
Russia, in another act of terrorism, has struck the Epicenter building supplies hypermarket in Kharkiv on a busy Saturday afternoon. It is estimated that more than 200 civilians were in the store at the time Russia struck it with several glide bombs.
Photos courtesy State Emergency Services unless otherwise stipulated
At present Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration has stated it has been confirmed at least 16 were killed and 43 injured, several others remain missing.
Later that same day there was another strike in downtown Kharkiv that resulted in 16 civilians being injured.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nothing to report.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
NATO head wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg In an interview with The Economist on May 24th stated:
“The time has come for allies to consider whether they should lift some of the restrictions they have put on the use of weapons they have donated to Ukraine,” said Mr Stoltenberg. “Especially now when a lot of the fighting is going on in Kharkiv, close to the border, to deny Ukraine the possibility of using these weapons against legitimate military targets on Russian territory makes it very hard for them to defend themselves.”
Mr Stoltenberg does not expect this action to lead to a Russian breakthrough. “They will continue to push and continue to gain some marginal ground, and they’re willing to pay a very high price for these marginal gains,” he said. But he does warn that Ukraine is struggling. And he has harsh words for nato’s European members: “European allies promised one million artillery shells,” he said. “We haven’t seen anything close to that.”
Some Western analysts say America has sought to micromanage the way in which Ukraine fights ever since the war began. Time after time, the Americans have denied Ukraine weapons it urgently requested, only to relent many months later. The list included the HIMARS multiple rocket launch system, Abrams tanks, f-16 fighter jets and atacms, a tactical ballistic missile system.
Mr Stoltenberg seems well aware of the asymmetric advantage Russia derives from what amounts to a grant of sanctuary from American long-range weapons. This allows Russia to concentrate forces, safe in the knowledge that Ukraine cannot use its most effective weapons until they cross the border. They can also launch weapons such as Lancet drones from Russian soil in relative safety. “We need to remember what this is,” Mr Stoltenberg said passionately.
“This is a war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine. Ukraine has the right to defend themselves. And that includes striking targets on Russian territory.” Stoltenberg said.
Poland calls for long-term European rearmament to counter Russia
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski urged a “long-term rearmament of Europe” to defeat Russian imperial ambitions. In an interview with The Guardian
Sikorski, according to the report, called for majority voting for EU sanctions, a 5,000-strong EU mechanized brigade, and said Poland was willing to back an EU-wide scheme to incentivize Ukrainian draft dodgers to return to their homeland.
Sikorski stated, “We have allowed all those production facilities to be closed down after the end of the Cold War. It costs money to persuade companies to keep production lines in reserve. We just didn’t pay the money. That was part of the peace dividend. And with hindsight it looks like a mistake.”
Sikorski also said that allies should drop the principle of unanimity in sanctions. “Some of them have been delayed by one member state blocking them. And also, it should be an EU crime to breach EU sanctions and therefore prosecutable by the European prosecution service.”
Regarding Ukraine’s right to strike military targets inside Russia, Sikorski stated, “The Russians are hitting the Ukrainian’s electricity grid and their grain terminals and gas storage capacity, civilian infrastructure. The Russian operation is conducted from the HQ at Rostov-on-Don. Besides not using nuclear weapons, Russia does not limit itself much.”
The Polish FM also expressed skepticism about Russian threats of utilizing nuclear weapons, stating:
“The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them.
“I think that’s a credible threat. Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it’s no child’s play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don’t want that.”
— Radosław Sikorsk, Polish Foreign Minister
Viktor Orbán holds up Ukraine arms funding from frozen Russian assets
Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is holding up legislation that would enable Ukraine to receive up to €2bn for weapons from the EU, in a blow to efforts to mobilise profits from Russian assets frozen under sanctions. The Financial Times reports.
After months of debate, EU countries this month agreed to use profits arising from about €190bn stuck in Belgian central securities depository Euroclear to buy weapons for Ukraine.
But Hungary’s envoy has objected to fast-tracking payments by forgoing a requirement for unanimous EU27 backing for each disbursement to Ukraine, said five people briefed on a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday.
“For the time being they are blocking everything connected to the military support to Ukraine,” said one of the people, suggesting Budapest’s reservations would remain until at least next month’s European elections.
To secure an agreement over using profits from frozen Russian assets, EU officials offered Hungary a deal whereby their share of the Brussels funds would not be used to purchase weapons for Ukraine, a second person said.
That convinced Budapest not to veto the scheme but it is holding up the implementation of the terms by failing to back the necessary legislation. Budapest is not opposed in principle but has concerns about making payments automatic, said people familiar with its thinking.
Biden calls Putin a “brutal tyrant”
US President Joe Biden, in his address to graduates at the US Military Academy at West Point referred to Vladimir Putin, the head of the Kremlin, as a "brutal tyrant" while discussing Russia's assault against Ukraine.
During the speech, the American president confirmed the unwavering support of the United States for Ukraine in the war with Russia.
"We are standing strong with Ukraine and we will stand with them. We're standing against a man whom I've known well for many years, a brutal tyrant. We may not, we will not walk away," Biden said.
Biden emphasised that the US will continue to give weapons and train the Ukrainian military, but he ruled out sending US soldiers to Ukraine. "There are no American soldiers in the war in Ukraine. I'm determined to keep it that way," he said.
Biden added that Putin was "certain that NATO would fracture." "Today the greatest defence alliance in the history of the world is stronger than ever," he said.
MILITARY & TECH
Germany, Denmark delivers 10 Leopard tanks, 3 HIMARS to Ukraine
The German government has announced a new package of military aid for Ukraine.
In a press release published on its website, Berlin stated that it would provide the Ukrainian armed forces with 10 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks jointly with Denmark. The aid package also includes 3 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
The military package includes 20 Leopard 2 rounds, 8,500 155mm artillery rounds, 20 Vector reconnaissance drones, 34 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones, and one Dachs engineer armored vehicle.
Ukraine will also receive two mine plows, 16 Zetros tank trucks, 400 LED lamps, 80 high-precision HLR 338 sniper rifles with 60,000 rounds of ammunition and 1.8 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
According to the release, Germany supports Ukraine through deliveries from the federal forces and industrial goods financed from federal funds.
Berlin announced that Ukraine’s military aid would increase by another 3.8 billion euros ($4.13 billion) in 2024.
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