UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-10
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Aug 09 stated that day 898 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 70 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 51 air strikes, 458 drone strikes and more than 3,300 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
The Russian Border Incursion
Russia resists troop shifts as Ukrainian Kursk incursion threatens Donetsk offensive
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 09 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. These units would likely be the first to respond even if the Russian military command has decided to transfer additional, more experienced units from elsewhere in the theatre.
The Russian military command may currently be resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces from other operational directions to prevent the Ukrainian incursion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on August 9 that it sent additional multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), artillery, and heavy tracked vehicles to strengthen forces in Sudzha Raion, and Russian milbloggers amplified footage showing additional Russian forces arriving in Kursk Oblast.
Russian conscripts, FSB border guards, and elements of Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz units operating under the Russian MoD were reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast as of the beginning of the Ukrainian incursion.
The Russian military command has reportedly transferred forces from unspecified operational reserves, additional units staffed by conscripts, Spetsnaz (Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff [GRU]), Special Operations Forces (SSO), additional Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz operating under the Russian MoD, and the 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps (DNR AC) and former Wagner Group personnel to unspecified areas of Kursk Oblast to defend against further Ukrainian advances and retake territory.
A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian military command has tasked Russian Spetsnaz and SSO forces with "clearing" the breakthrough zone and pushing Ukrainian forces back across the international border, and several Russian milbloggers expressed confidence that Russian Spetsnaz forces are likely the most capable Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian mechanised manoeuvre.
The Russian military command may currently be transferring more experienced and better-provisioned frontline units from eastern or southern Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, but it would likely take additional time for such units to arrive in Kursk Oblast.
What is being said and what is observable regarding the situation in Kursk
Russia redeployed troops armour and artillery to the Kursk region as a result of Ukraine’s border incursion Reuters reported on the evening of Aug 09.
Meanwhile while the AFU still has not commented publicly on the operation video evidence is emerging that Ukrainian forces are operating well inside Russia.
Ukrainian sources published a video purporting to show them in control of a town near the border, the first pictorial evidence of their cross-border advances.
In new evidence of the damage inflicted in the Ukrainian counter-offensive, another video posted on social media and verified by Reuters showed a convoy of about 15 burnt-out Russian military trucks spaced out along a highway in the Kursk region. Some contained dead bodies.
The acting governor of Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, said drone debris had fallen on a power substation near Kurchatov, site of one of Russia's largest nuclear power stations with four reactors. Power to the area was cut for a time.
The Ukrainian military's General Staff made no comment. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has maintained a strict silence on the operation, though he dropped some clear hints on Thursday, without referring to Kursk.
He praised his army's ability "to surprise". And in his nightly video address, he thanked army units who had taken Russian servicemen prisoner, to be used in later negotiations.
"This is extremely important and has been particularly effective over the past three days," he said.
Early on Saturday, Russian news agencies said the National Anti-Terrorism Committee had imposed anti-terror measures in Kursk region and in nearby Bryansk and Belgorod regions.
Two days after Military Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to President Vladimir Putin that the advance had been halted, Russia's defence ministry said its forces "continue to repel an attempted invasion by the Armed Forces of Ukraine".
The map shown below references the current size of the Kursk incursion as opposed to the Russia’s invasion into Northern Kharkiv several months ago (bottom right)
The Ukrainian video purported to show Ukrainian forces in control of a gas measuring facility run by Russian concern Gazprom in the town of Sudzha.
"The town is controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the town is calm, all buildings are intact," a soldier in the video said, adding that the "strategic Gazprom facility" was under the control of a Ukrainian battalion.
Reuters could not verify this video and the Ukrainian military's General Staff made no comment. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has maintained a strict silence on the operation, though he dropped some clear hints on Thursday, without referring to Kursk.
Ben Barry, land warfare analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that while its wider strategic goals remained unclear, Ukraine had exposed Russian shortcomings and overturned the conventional wisdom on the war that neither side could advance without heavy losses.
"They clearly have achieved a degree of surprise which suggests that Russia's ability to do intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance is inadequate," he said in a phone interview.
There were unconfirmed reports from Russian sources of Ukrainians pushing as deep as 35 km (22 miles) from the border.
Ukrainian incursion 'threat' to Kursk nuclear power plant — Rosatom
Russia's nuclear agency Rosatom said that Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region poses a "direct threat" to the region's nuclear power plant. DW reports.
"The actions of the Ukrainian army created a direct threat not only to the Kursk nuclear power plant, but to the entire nuclear energy industry," Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev was cited by Russian state news agency RIA as saying.
He made the comments during a call with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IARA), Rafael Grossi.
"At the moment there is a real danger of strikes and provocations by the Ukrainian army," Rosatom said in a separate statement.
At least 16,000 civilians have been evacuated from border areas due to the Ukrainian incursion.
Rafael Grossi, IAEA chief, called for "maximum restraint" to prevent a disaster at a nearby nuclear plant. Russia said fragments, possibly from downed missiles, were found at the site.
Unverified video claims new Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast
A video circulating on Ukrainian Telegram channels Saturday morning appears to show Ukrainian military personnel in Belgorod Oblast of Russia. Euromaidan Press reports.
This follows ongoing combat in Russia’s Kursk Oblast since 6 August after a Ukrainian incursion, leading to widespread panic and disorganised evacuations. Details on troop numbers, objectives, and the strategic rationale remain unclear.
The unverified footage depicts several individuals in Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) uniforms posing with Ukrainian and Georgian flags in front of a building with a sign for a community centre in the village of Poroz. This village is located in the Grayvoronsky district of Belgorod Oblast, approximately two kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
The authenticity and timing of the video remain unconfirmed, with no official statements yet issued by either Ukrainian or Russian authorities.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 2 Russian attacks over the last day near Vovchansk
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 1 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka
Lyman axis: Russia attacked 10 times unsuccessfully in the direction of settlements of, Makiivka, Nevske and the Serebryanskyy Forest. 3 attacks continue
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 9 assaults in the vicinity of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne and Vyimka.
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 6 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar Ivanivske and Stupochky 2 attacks continue
Toretsk axis: There have been 12 Russian attacks over that last day with air support. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Dyliivka, Toretsk, and Nui-York. 2 battles are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The enemy conducted 25 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrivka,Hrodivka, Zhelanne and Yasnobrodivka. 8 attacks are ongoing.
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance 3 times in the area of settlements and Paraskoviivka and Kostiantinivka.
Vremivka axis: In this sector the situation is under control, Russian forces made 1 attempt to attack Ukrainian positions near Vodiane.
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly. 1 enemy attack was repulsed over the last day in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
Ukraine attacks gas platform in Black Sea with cluster of Russian military personnel
The Ukrainian Navy and Defence Intelligence of Ukraine have carried out an attack on a gas platform where Russian personnel and equipment were stationed the previous day. Ukrainska Pravda reports citing Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy.
"The occupiers used this location for GPS spoofing to endanger civilian navigation. We cannot allow this.
Yes, half a day before the strike, the enemy had placed equipment and military personnel on the platform. No civilians were there, and the platform was not performing its regular functions.
The coastal rocket and artillery units of the Ukrainian Navy are extremely serious fighters [meaning they would not carry out an attack when it would have been dangerous for the environment or civilians – ed.]." Pletenchuk said
In the comment to Ukrainska Pravda, Pletenchuk mentioned that this was "not the first operation of this kind".
Pletenchuk said that the Russians had been using this platform to disrupt the normal functioning of the grain corridor. He added that the decision to carry out the attack was made to ensure the safety of civilian navigation.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Power substations and railways experienced outages because of combat actions in Donetsk Oblast
High-voltage substations, residential consumers and the railway system have experienced power outages because of combat actions in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainska Pravda reported.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy tates that power has been restored to all consumers.
Additionally, pieces of a drone were discovered at one of the substations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast following an attack. The substation and residential consumers were cut off from the power grid.
The ministry also reported that on 9 August, power engineers restored power to 4,713 consumers who had been cut off because of combat actions.
As of the morning of 10 August, a total of 491 settlements remain without electricity due to combat actions and technical issues.
Furthermore, severe weather has caused power outages in Kyiv and Kirovohrad oblasts, and over 3,000 consumers in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts have been left without power because of attacks.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Moscow Prepares to Block Conscripts from Leaving the Country Ahead of Autumn 2024 Draft
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Aug 09 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated the Russian Government is trying to prevent potential Russian military draftees from fleeing the country. Details of potential conscripts will be passed between the Ministry of Defense of Russia and the FSB Border Guard Service, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
These individuals will then be blocked from leaving the country. The Kremlin wants the system to be in place before the Autumn 2024 draft. Russia carries out two conscription drafts each year, drafting in over 250,000 personnel annually.
In 2022, hundreds of thousands left russia after a partial mobilisation was announced. Many were young and highly educated, negatively impacting the labour market.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry urges Rome Opera to cancel pro-Putin Netrebko's performance.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has called on the Rome Opera to cancel its planned programme featuring Russian opera singer Anna Netrebko. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
In a video, the ministry highlighted why Anna Netrebko was not "apolitical", as she claims.
The video provides examples of how Netrebko has repeatedly supported the Russian government and Putin personally. It also mentions her backing of Crimea's occupation, her financial contribution in the spring of 2014 to the Donetsk Opera Theatre through Oleg Tsaryov, who at the time referred to himself as the "Speaker of the Parliament of Novorossiya" [this is how Russia tends to describe occupied territories of Donbas – ed.], and her public comments that suggest her condemnation of Russia's war against Ukraine was not entirely sincere, indicating she is manoeuvring to suit her current interests.
"The artist's years of support for Putin's regime doesn’t stop the world's stages from welcoming her. How can you enjoy the performance of a person-accomplice to Russia's crimes?"
MILITARY & TECH
What Is Known About Russian Kh-38 Missile
Russia continues to conduct targeted strikes on civilian objects in Ukraine. On Friday, August 9, russian occupiers attacked a supermarket in Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast. At the time of publication, it is known that about 14 were killed and 43 wounded. Defense Express reports.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine reported that, according to preliminary data, the Kh-38 air-to-surface missile was used in the strike. It was adopted by the Russian Federation in 2012, but still remains a rarely used munition.
As of May of this year, Russian propagandists began to mention the use of these missiles more actively, but in the Kh-38ML variant with laser guidance. There are also other variants of this missile such as satellite guidance, infrared as well as active radar homing. It is also known that this missile can be carried by Su-35 and Su-57 aircraft and allegedly by Ka-52 helicopters.
The total weight of the missile is 520 kg. It has a high-explosive and even cluster warhead weighing 250 kg. It is important to note that the launch range of this missile is only up to 40 km, while its speed is up to Mach 2.2. It is known that the distance from Kostyantynivka to the frontline is currently about 12-15 kilometres.
Despite having a very short range of up to 40 km, the Kh-38 missile reaches speeds of up to Mach 2.2 and has a fairly advanced guidance system
Taking into account the fact that the laser guidance system is the most common for the Kh-38 missile, it must be emphasised that the Russian strike on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure was deliberate.
It should also be noted that the russian federation has created Grom-E1 missile based on Kh-38 that is also occasionally used by the enemy.
Ukrainian marines downed 9 reconnaissance UAVs of the Russian Federation using FPV drones
The 38th Marine Brigade reported they have downed 9 Russian reconnaissance drones using FPV drones.
The Come Back Alive Foundation said that these modernised FPV drones for air defence had been donated by their foundation. Militarnyi reports
“Operators of the 38th Marine Brigade destroy Russian reconnaissance UAVs in the South,” the foundation said.
The video shows the modernised FPV drones successfully catching up with Russian reconnaissance drones Supercam, Zala and Orlan.
Then the drone operator directs it to the wings or engine of the reconnaissance drone, after which the FPV drone’s warhead is activated.
These Russian UAVs are dangerous because they collect data on the movement of troops and equipment and the location of critical infrastructure.
Presumably, a pair of modernised FPV drones were sent after one reconnaissance drone.
This is evidenced by footage from a video in which a second drone watches the fall of a wounded Russian reconnaissance drone.
To defeat drones, a new munition has also been developed for these modernised drones.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
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