UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-18
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on May 17 stated that day 815 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 101 combat engagements took place. The enemy carried out 15 missile strikes, 70 air strikes, 452 drone strikes and 2,843 shellings across the positions of our troops.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Enemy expands zone of active hostilities by almost 70 km
The enemy has expanded the active combat zone by almost 70 square kilometres, thus trying to force Ukraine to use additional brigades from the reserve, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky said. Interfax Ukraine reports.
In his Telegram channel, he informed that due to the complicated situation in eastern Ukraine, he has been working for several days in a row with units conducting combat operations in Kharkiv region.
"The enemy concentrated his main efforts in the direction of Strilecha – Lyptsi and on the capture of Vovchansk, followed by access to Bila Krynytsia and the deployment of an offensive to the rear of our troops. For this purpose, the enemy created and significantly strengthened the operational-tactical group of enemy forces North, which included combat units of the sixth Army, 11th and 44th Army Corps," Syrsky said.
He also said the enemy launched an offensive much earlier than planned, when he noticed the transfer of Ukrainian forces, but he was unable to break through the defences of Ukraine, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said.
"However, we understand that there will be heavy fighting ahead and the enemy is preparing for this. In such circumstances, we must prevent the further advance of enemy troops by steadily holding occupied lines and positions, air strikes, missile systems, artillery and tank fire inflicting maximum losses on them, and also create conditions for defeat by the actions of mobile assault groups and units with attacks on the flank and rear in different directions," he said.
Syrsky also said it is necessary to make the most effective use of the advantage of Ukrainian forces in attack UAVs in combination with the use of electronic warfare equipment and accurate artillery fire.
"It was this issue, as well as the regrouping of troops and simplification of the comprehensive support system, that my work was devoted to. He worked with all the brigades conducting combat operations in Kharkiv region, was in one of the battalions that defends Vovchansk, and made all the necessary decisions on the spot to ensure the stability and effectiveness of the defence," he said.
Syrsky also said he checked all the units preparing for defence in Sumy direction. According to him, "it is noticeable that the leadership of regional military administrations provides maximum assistance to commanders and unit commanders in resolving all problematic issues."
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of May 18, 2024, the occupiers attacked with 13 attack UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type from the regions of Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk - Russian Federation.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down all 13 "martyrs" in the Kharkiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The Russians attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses in the area of Lyptsi and Buhruvatka. Ukrainian forces in some areas are conducting assault operations to improve the tactical position as well as carrying out combing operations. In the area of the city of Vovchansk, Ukrainian units reinforce defense in order to improve the tactical position.
Kupyansk axis: There were 6 Russian assaults in the area of Ivanivka, Kyslivka and Berestove. The situation is controlled by defenders of Ukraine.
Lyman axis:
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack in the vicinity of Sinkivka and Terny
The GSAFU stated as of 11:30 on May 18 that Ukrainian forces continue assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Terny with some success recapturing lost ground.
Siversk axis: Russian occupiers made five attempts to break through the defenses of Ukrainian forces, focusing efforts in the area of Rozdolivki. The situation is under control.
Kramatorsk axis: Defence forces have held their positions. The situation is tense but in control.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The enemy has carried out 25 attacks on the positions of our troops. Also, there are fighting in the areas of settlements Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Nevelske.
Kurakhove axis: The Russians 16 times tried to break the defense of our troops. Fighting continues in the areas of the settlements of Paraskoviyivka and Vodyane.
Vremika axis: The enemy made three attempts to improve the tactical position. Our troops repelled two attempts of the enemy to advance in the direction of Staromayorsky.
Orikhiv axis: Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Russian forces continue attempts to push our Ukrainian forces out of their bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces repelled 13 attacks of the enemy in the area of the settlement of Krynky.
Ukraine’s successful May 14 strike on Belbek airfield in Qirim has serious implications for Russia
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 18 Intelligence Update stated that on May 14 , Ukrainian military forces carried out strikes on Russian military targets on the illegally held territory of Qirim. Initial reporting suggests the destruction of elements of the S-400 anti-air system at Belbek airfield, including a radar system and launchers.
In addition, at least two MiG-31BM aircraft were reported to have been destroyed on the ground. This marks the fourth instance in the past month when Russian air defence in Crimea has suffered losses. Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully targeted the Ai-Petri radar station and Dzhankoi airfield.
The cumulative effect of these strikes has led to an overall deterioration in Russia's ability to defend the airspace around Crimea, while also demonstrating Ukraine's capability to impact Russian air defence operations, the review emphasises.
It is highly likely that this will force Russia to disperse its air assets or risk losing more aircraft, as well as relocate air defence systems from other areas.
The reduction in A-50 aircraft coverage and their dispersal from Crimean airfields will likely lead to an increase in flight hours and frequency of fighter jet sorties to fill coverage gaps, resulting in greater maintenance challenges for their fleets.
Additionally Russian sources later confirmed that the head of the Russian air defence unit Lt. Col. Oleksandr Kulakov died in the attack.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russians Build New Mariupol-Berdyansk Branch of Railroad on Temporarily Occupied Territories
Russian occupiers continue to build a new Rostov-Crimea railroad in southern Ukraine. Works are progressing rapidly in Berdiansk Raion Zaporizhzhia Oblast, so it is possible to see the path that will connect Mariupol and Berdyansk Defense Express reports.
According to the Center of Journalistic Investigations, Sentinel-2 satellite images show that from April 26 to May 12, construction works have noticeably advanced by 25 kilometres on the section of Krasne Pole village to the village of Osipenko. There, the road turns south towards Staropetrivka village.
By analysing satellite data, it is possible to see how the railway line between Berdiansk and Mariupol will look like.
It is known that russians are building the railroad in Berdiansk together with the bypass road to the north of Mariupol. So, a new section of the land corridor could consist of road and railroad.
Obviously russians will lay the tracks from the village of Staropetrivka, near Berdyansk to the military base at the airfield, where the new branch line connects with the existing railroad. It starts at the port and heads to the north of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the frontline town of Polohy.
THE HOME FRONT
Kharkiv death toll reaches 4 after Russian strike on May 17
The number of fatalities from the May 17 Russian attack on Kharkiv has risen to four, with 31 people injured, according to Oleh Syniehubov, head of the regional military administration.
Kharkiv’s proximity to Russia makes intercepting such strikes extremely difficult, leaving civilians vulnerable to the relentless Russian shelling despite Ukraine’s efforts.
“Today, a 33-year-old man died in the hospital. 16 people are receiving inpatient treatment, with two in critical condition,” he wrote on Telegram.
The other three victims were also civilian men.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine Asks U.S. to Provide More Intelligence on Targets in Russia
Ukraine has asked the Biden administration to provide more intelligence on the position of Russian forces and military targets inside Russia as Ukrainian troops struggle to hold ground in the war, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The New York Times reported on May 17.
White House officials said the administration’s longstanding policy remained unchanged: The United States is not encouraging or enabling attacks inside Russia. American officials, seeking to avoid escalating the war, have insisted they do not want U.S. weapons used in cross-border attacks or their intelligence reports used to target sites in Russia.
The latest request came in recent days, officials said, and administration officials have begun to review it. Similar appeals have been turned down in the past.
The United States provides some intelligence to Ukraine on Russian forces in Russia, for example, on troops that are massing for potential attacks. Ukraine also has access to commercial satellite imagery that allows it to see Russian activity at major military bases.
But Ukrainian officials say they need to increase the number and effectiveness of their cross-border attacks to press Moscow to end the war, according to current and former Ukrainian officials. To do that, those officials say they want more real-time intelligence and more information from allies on what U.S. and European officials think are the most critical targets.
A former Ukrainian official said American and allied intelligence on Russian military assets across the border would allow Ukraine to more accurately plan routes for its drones and guided missiles. Those weapons must fly low to avoid radar, requiring detailed terrain mapping.
There are signs that Ukraine’s cross-border strategy is becoming more effective, and allied officials say an expanded campaign, particularly one targeting Russia’s defence industry and manufacturing plants, would be critical to changing the trajectory of the war.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
The US continues to “tie Ukraine’s hands” by refusing to allow the use of US supplied weapons to strike inside Russia
The Institute for the Study of War in its May 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that US officials reiterated the White House's unwillingness to support Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons in strikes against military targets in Russia. US Defense Department Spokesperson Sabrina Singh stated on May 16 that the Biden Administration has not changed its position against Ukrainian forces using US weapons to strike targets within Russia and that the administration believes that the equipment should be used to liberate occupied Ukrainian territory.
“ISW continues to assess that US and other Western limitations on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia have created a sanctuary in Russia's border areas from which Russian aircraft can conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and settlements and where Russian forces and equipment can freely assemble before entering combat. This US policy is severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast.”
Zelenskyy: Partners are afraid of Russia losing the war
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that "the partners are afraid of the loss of the Russian Federation in this war." Interfax Ukraine reports.
"They wanted Ukraine to win so that Russia would not lose. It will be an unpredictable loss and unpredictable geopolitics. I think it doesn't work that way. For Ukraine to win, we need to have everything people win with," the President told reporters on Thursday.
Zelenskyy called the idea of French President Emmanuel Macron to conduct training of the Ukrainian military in Ukraine logical. "Training in Ukraine is logical – we have already talked about this. Rather than going, for example, to France, even to Poland. And then – cooperation on mine clearance, one can make a hub for the repair of French equipment, for example, directly in Ukraine, so as not to send it to France. I look at it very positively, to be honest. All this could be a step that would encourage other countries. That is, it opens some new page in this war," the President said.
At the same time, he was sceptical about the idea of an "Olympic Truce." "We have already had a ceasefire. But it doesn't really work with this enemy. In addition, there is a risk – who will say that during the ceasefire their forces will not approach us? The ceasefire does not prevent the equipment from driving closer and then turning on the offensive. I mean, I don't understand the details. For me, it still sounds like an inanimate story," Zelenskyy said.
Grumpy Here - Zelenskyy voices the frustration of many Ukrainians and their supporters worldwide who believe that most nations in the west (chief among them the USA) refuse to commit fully to Ukraine’s victory over Russia because of fear of the uncertainty that might arise as a result of Russia’s defeat. Instead their goal is to give Ukraine just enough support to prevent it from losing.
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
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