UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-23
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 23 stated that it was day 699 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 68 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 65 air strikes, and 56 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks of the enemy near the settlements of Synkivka, (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 1 attack of the occupiers near Makiivka, Terny, (Luhansk oblast) and 5 attacks near the Serebryansky forest and Bilogorivka (Donetsk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 attacks near Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Stepove, Avdiivka, and 7 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 21 attacks in that area
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 attack neat Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Russia intensifies the use of artillery and drones in Southern Ukraine
The head of the joint press center of the Operational Command "South" Nataliia Humeniuk stated that the situation in the Kherson region remains quite tense, as the enemy is trying to put pressure with artillery, aviation and use UAVs of various modifications.
"The situation remains quite tense. The enemy is trying to compensate for the pressure with artillery, aviation, using unmanned aerial vehicles of various modifications from strike to those carrying fragmentation ammunition," she said.
Humeniuk clarified that the enemy is trying to compensate for the days "when time was lost due to weather conditions."
The spokeswoman noted that the aggressor intensified the use of UAVs, more than 30 of which were recorded, "these are FPV drones and drones that dropped shrapnel munitions."
At the same time, she noted that the enemy is trying to keep the intensity of artillery strikes at a high level, bringing them to the 100 mark.
"It is harder for them to do this now, because our counter-battery work was quite effective yesterday. A Grad multiple rocket launcher, 7 cannons, 2 self-propelled artillery systems and 11 units of armored vehicles were destroyed," she informed.
The GSAFU in its morning report on Jan.23 noted the destruction of 51 Russian artillery systems throughout the front.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Authorities shut off water to Sevastopol in Russian occupied Qirim
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol has reported that they have halted water supply to residents, supposedly due to significant water pollution, and announced that Tuesday and Wednesday would be days off.
"It snowed a lot, and the snow melted in just a day. There was a sharp influx of dirty water from the mountains into the Chorna River, with groundwater rising. The indicators exceeded the norm by almost a hundred times. A similar natural situation occurred in Sevastopol for the last time in the 1970s.
Due to the rise of rivers and mudflows, the water turbidity level increased sharply: while normally the suspended solids are 1.5 mg per litre, now they have risen to 58 mg per litre. In other words, the water has become almost 60 times dirtier. With such turbidity, the speed of water treatment is sharply reduced. Therefore, we stopped water intakes and are cleaning the system."
— Mikhail Razvozhayev of the occupying authority
Reports indicate that schools and kindergartens have been closed in the city since Monday. Only the preschools are open for children whose parents continue to go to work.
Interruptions in the tap water supply in Sevastopol began on 19 January. A third of the monthly rainfall occurred in the city and its suburbs in just one night, leading to a massive flood.
The city's occupying authorities said it would take over 50 hours to complete the cleaning of the water supply system. They promise to have the water supply resumed on the evening of 24 January.
THE HOME FRONT
Another massive Russian missile strike targets Ukrainian civilians
After a week-long break, Russia launched another massive aerial attack on Ukraine. The main target of the assault was the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv. President Zelenskyy said the Russian attack killed at least six civilians and injured dozens. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Air Force says Russia has used 41 missiles of five types as the air defenders destroyed 21 of those. The attack claimed the lives of at least six people and injured about 80 civilians.
The following photos were all shared from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine’s Telegram channel:
Russia had been stockpiling missiles for such winter attacks since last summer, as its missile production remained at low levels and the Soviet-era stocks were depleted during the first 1.5 years of the all-out war. These missiles were deployed en masse only starting in late December 2023, following months primarily focused on suicide drone attacks.
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported Russia launched 41 missiles of five different types, including cruise, ballistic, air-guided, and anti-air missiles.
The AF says Russia launched the following missiles:
4 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Russia’s Belgorod region targeting Kharkiv Oblast;
15 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles from six Tu-95MS strategic bombers (launch area: Engels, Russia)
8 Kh-22 anti-ship missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers from Russia’s Bryansk and Oryol oblasts in the direction of Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts;
12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (launch area: Belgorod and Voronezh oblasts)
2 Kh-59 guided missiles from two Su-34 aircraft (launch area: Belgorod Oblasts, Russia).
The ballistic missiles are the most challenging aerial targets for Ukraine’s air defenses. Of all Ukrainian anti-air systems, only the Patriot surface-to-air missile systems can destroy them.
The Ukrainian Air Force says the country’s air defenders destroyed 21 missiles of those 41:
15 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles;
5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;
one X-59 guided missile.
Cabinet Ministers appoint Melitopol mayor as head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast
The Cabinet Ministers of Ukraine have endorsed the President’s decree to appoint Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, as the head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast State Administration in its meeting on Jan. 23.
Federov was elected Mayor of Melitopol in 2020. Following the launch of the full scale invasion Federov was arrested and abducted by the Russian military on Mar. 11 2022.
On Mar. 12 , the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that Fedorov was being tortured. Zelenskyy requested his release. On Mar. 16 Federov was released in a prisoner exchange.
Ukrainian air defences destroy Russian Kh-59 missile over Dnipro district
An explosion rocked the city of Dnipro on Tuesday afternoon during an air raid. It was Ukrainian air defence forces shooting down a Russian Kh-59 guided missile Suspilne reports.
An air-raid warning was issued in all oblasts of Ukraine at around 15:00 due to the MiG-31K jet taking off from Savasleyka airfield in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported at 16:00 that a Russian missile was heading towards the city of Dnipro. Reports of an explosion emerged at 16:08. A little later, Air Command Skhid reported that a Kh-59 guided missile had been destroyed over the Dnipro district.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian Novatek may take several weeks to recover from Ukrainian attack
Reuters reported with reference to analysts at Moscow-based brokerage BCS that Novatek could resume large-scale operations at its Ust-Luga refinery and Baltic Sea terminal within weeks after a suspected drone attack that disrupted oil flows to Asia, analysts said.
"We believe the plant is likely to return to significant capacity within weeks or, at worst, months," analysts at Moscow-based BCS brokerage said in a note.
Novatek said on Sunday that it had been forced to suspend some operations at its huge Baltic Sea export terminal and a "technological process" at the complex due to a fire caused by what Ukrainian sources said was a drone attack.
Russians deploy S-300 air defence systems to St. Petersburg
The Telegram channel ASTRA reports that after drones attacked Leningrad Oblast for the first time since the beginning of the war Russian authorities have begun installing S-300 air defence systems around St. Petersburg and a video has surfaced on Twitter.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
EU foreign minister says EU countries have agree on use of Russian frozen assets
Josep Borrell,EU foreign policy chief said in an interview with Radio Liberty that a political agreement has been reached between the EU member states regarding the use of proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
According to Josep Borrell, on Wednesday EU ambassadors should greenlight the decision to first save the funds on a separate account and then use them to support Ukraine.
Borrell also announced plans to visit Ukraine in the second week of February but did not specify the date of his trip or with whom he plans to meet.
Poland Preparing New Defense Package For Ukraine
Poland is planning a new defence package for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on January 22 after a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in which they pledged to tackle political disputes that have caused bilateral friction amid Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The defence package is "a new form of cooperation aimed at larger-scale arms purchases for Ukrainian needs," Zelenskiy's press office quoted him as saying.
Zelenskiy also expressed gratitude to Poland for its readiness to start work on a bilateral agreement on security cooperation. The two leaders also hailed proposed plans for joint arms production that Tusk said would "be a very profitable business for both sides.
Ukraine suggests export control system for agricultural products to Poland
The Ukrainian government has proposed to Poland a mechanism of verification of export of agricultural goods in accordance with the decision of the European Commission which is already operating in trade with Romania and Bulgaria.
Denys Shmyhal, Prime Minister of Ukraine, during a joint briefing with Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister, stated that the sides had discussed many bilateral cooperation issues, specifically unobstructed movement of goods through the border. "We think that this issue is solved for now. The blockade of the border has been lifted, and joint work has its results,"
The Ukrainian PM added that the Ukrainian side had promised to do all in its power to not harm and to support Polish farmers and hauliers. In addition to this, Ukraine expects Poland to take steps towards lifting the restrictions from Ukrainians farmers and manufacturers.
"Ukraine suggested the mechanism of verification of export of agricultural products according to the decision of the European Commission. This mechanism has been successful in operations with Romania and Bulgaria, and we suggest using it in our mutually beneficial relations," Shmyhal noted.
New Ramstein meeting to take place today
A new meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine's Defence (Ramstein format) is scheduled for today Jan. 23. The meeting will occur as the US is out of money and unable to send the ammunition and missiles Ukraine needs to fight Russia, as the decision on the aid package is still pending in Congress.
Sabrina Singh, US Defence Department spokesperson stressed that the United States will hope for help from other allies for Ukraine.
"Even though we aren’t able to provide our security assistance right now, our partners are continuing to do that," Singh said.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (who was recently released from hospital following an illness) will chair the meeting of the Contact Group for the Defence of Ukraine on 23 January together with Charles Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, but will participate in it from home.
MILITARY & TECH
UK ambassador reveals details of future drone production with Ukraine
Martin Harris, UK ambassador to Kyiv, has said, in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda that UK-sponsored drones for Ukraine will be produced on the territory of both countries.
"Drones should be manufactured in cooperation with the military-industrial complex of our two countries. This is the current advantage of Ukraine – extensive experience in using drones. Therefore, there is a great interest on the part of the UK and other countries – how we can cooperate with you in the production of drones – both here in Ukraine and our countries," the ambassador said.
Harris did not specify how many drones will be produced since the process is just beginning. "But I think this will be one of the most promising elements of our cooperation in the military-industrial complex," the diplomat said.
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