UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-16
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 16 stated that it was day 752 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 10 missile strikes, 68 air strikes, and 89 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 7 concentrations of enemy troops.
Also, on the night of Mar. 15-16, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed 2 of the 2 launched Shahed attack drones (Kharkiv oblast).
Russians try to destabilise Ukraine's defence lines and prepare for new offensive
The institute for the Study of War (ISW) in it’s Mar. 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilise Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.
Russian forces are attempting to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilising their defensive lines.
Russian forces are, in particular concentrating on pushing as far west of Avdiivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a harder-to-penetrate line in the area.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 15 that Russian forces have concentrated their efforts on the Avdiivka direction and have been conducting daily mechanised and infantry assaults in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defences.
Although Ukrainian forces have recently been able to slow Russian advances west of Avdiivka, pervasive materiel shortages caused by delays in Western security assistance appear to be forcing Ukraine to prioritise limited resources to critical sectors of the front, increasing the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other less-well-provisioned sectors and making the frontline overall more fragile than it appears despite the current relatively slow rate of Russian advances.
Russian forces will continue to use the advantages provided by possessing the theatre-wide initiative to dynamically reweight their offensive efforts this spring and into the summer, likely in hopes of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities
Russian forces may be pressing their attempts at a breakthrough before difficult weather and terrain conditions in spring will likely constrain effective mechanised manoeuvre on both sides of the line and further limit Russian capabilities to make significant tactical advances while the ground is still muddy.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy carried out 3 assaults in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) unsuccessfully trying to improve its tactical position.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 attacks near Terny and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 3 attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonen’ke and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). The enemy, supported by aviation, made 24 attempts to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and south of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Russia Black Sea Fleet’s new chief expected to stabilise security situation after ship losses
The UK Minsitry of Defence in it’s Mar. 15 Intelligence Update stated that Following a series of significant Russian vessel losses in the Black Sea, on 10 March 2024, the Commander in Chief of the Russian Federation Navy, Admiral Nikolay Anatolyevich Yevmenov, was highly likely removed from the position and replaced by Northern Fleet commander, Admiral Aleksandr Alekseyevich Moiseyev.
The sacking of Admiral Yevmenov comes after the removal of the second Black Sea Fleet commander since February 2022 and follows the loss of the SERGEY KOTOV corvette on 5 March 2024, the ninth major vessel to be lost to Ukrainian action since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Although a career submariner, prior to his appointment as Northern Fleet Commander, Admiral Moiseyev held command of the Black Sea Fleet between 2018 and 2019. It is likely that Admiral Moiseyev’s first task as Commander in Chief of the Navy will be to stabilise the security situation in the Black Sea and implement changes designed to improve the Black Sea Fleet’s combat capability in the region.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Death toll from Russian attack on Odesa rises as firefighter dies in hospital
39-year-old driver and firefighter Vitalii Alymov passed away in hospital on the morning of 16 March. He suffered severe injuries on 15 March while performing his duties as a result of a second missile strike by the Russians on Odesa. Reportedly, medics did everything possible, but unfortunately, they could not save the man’s life. State Emergency Service of Ukraine report.
The number of fatalities as a result of the Russian attack on Odesa, Mar 15 has risen to 21 people with the death of a responding firefighter.
We are deeply saddened by the death of our fellow firefighter and express our condolences to his family and friends. Vitaly will always remain in our memory as a good friend, a sensitive and kind person and a professional in his field.
— Statment from The State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Grumpy Here — Alymov is just the latest of hundreds of victims of the Russian strategy of the “double tap”, a tactic developed by terrorists where they plan a second strike 15 - 20 minutes after the first strike on the same location, knowing that emergency services will have arrived on the scene. The purposeful targeting of emergency services is both a terrorist act and a war crime.
Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers notes positive steps in Ukraine's judicial reform
The highest collegial political body of the Council of Europe, the Committee of Ministers, has noted the positive decisions of the Ukrainian authorities on the way to reforming the judicial system. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
The decision of the Committee, which assessed the implementation of the European Court of Human Rights’ ruling of the Volkov v. Ukraine case
In particular, the conclusions note that in 2014-2018, Ukraine took significant steps to restructure the system of disciplinary responsibility and the career of judges, including amending the Constitution and implementing legislation.
The Committee welcomed the fact that Ukraine now has a fully operational High Council of Justice and High Qualifications Commission of Judges.
In addition, the Committee "noted with interest" the repeal of Article 375 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, which stipulated a prison sentence for a judge for making an unlawful decision.
"Any criminal investigation against a judge is to be compliant with the Council of Europe standards and recommendations, so that it is not misused to exert undue influence and pressure," the conclusions say.
Residents evacuate from 22 settlements near Russian border in Sumy Oblast
All residents of 22 settlements in the three districts of Sumy Oblast near the Russian border have evacuated, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.
A total of 4,523 people, including 829 children, have been evacuated from the dangerous areas of Sumy Oblast.
In particular, more than 180 residents have left Velyka Pysarivka hromada in the Okhtyrka district, where the security situation is currently the most acute, over the past three days. The largest number of people – 84 residents, including 20 children – left Velyka Pysarivka after heavy attacks on the hromada.
In the last five days alone, attacks on the hromada killed 3 people and injured 13, Sumy Oblast Military Administration says.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine's Security Service disrupts supplies of spare parts for Russian Shahed drones and cruise missiles
llia Vitiuk, head of the SSU’s Cyber Security Department stated that Cyber-specialists from the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) have disrupted the supply of spare parts for the manufacture Shahed drones and microcircuits for cruise missiles.
"We are blocking the supply chains of components for Russian weapons. One example – we have already blocked the supply of engines for the production of 1,600 Shahed drones and 4,000 microcircuits for cruise missiles."
Vitiuk also said cyber specialists are working in the combat zone to destroy Russian radio-electronic warfare and radio-electronic reconnaissance systems and intercept Russian drones used to direct missile and artillery strikes on Ukrainian forces.
He added that during the two years of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the SSU has repelled almost 10,000 cyber attacks, most of which were in the initial stages. The objectives of these cyber attacks varied from reconnaissance to destruction, psychological influence, or a combination.
Fires and overturned cars in Belgorod after air defence response to attack
The Russian city of Belgorod came under fire on the morning of 16 March, and after the air defence system responded to the attack, fires broke out and road accidents occurred, damaging buildings and cars. The authorities also reported that two Russians had been killed.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast reported on the morning of 16 March that an air-raid warning had been issued in Belgorod. It was in effect for about 20 minutes.
Ukraine's Security Service behind attacks on three Russian oil refineries
Three large oil refineries in Russia’s Samara Oblast were targeted by attack drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (HUR) on the night of 15-16 March. Ukrainska Pravda reported citing asource in the Security Service of Ukraine.
The refineries were located in Novokuibyshevsk, Kuibyshevsky and Syzran.
HUR claimed that the strikes were successful and that together these refineries process a total of about 25 million tonnes of oil per year, which is almost 10% of all Russian oil refining.
Authorities in Russia’s Samara Oblast reported fires at oil refineries after drone strikes.
WORLD NEWS
France, Germany, and Poland pledge more weapons for Ukraine in show of unity
At the Weimar Triangle meeting in Berlin, the leaders of France, Germany, and Poland agreed to boost Ukraine’s military support with more weapons, expanded equipment production, and a rocket artillery coalition. Euromaidan Press reports.
In recent weeks, Macron has ramped up anti-Russia rhetoric that has caused tensions with some allies. He remarked that Europe must not be “cowards” against Russian aggression and said Western ground troops in Ukraine could not be “ruled out,” later adding that “we cannot afford to set limits for ourselves in the face of an enemy who sets no limits.” However, following the meeting Macron did not comment on his position regarding the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine but stressed a unified stance against initiating escalation.
Chancellor Scholz reiterated Germany’s support for Ukraine, emphasizing the country’s commitment alongside France and Poland to ensure Ukraine’s effective defense against Russian aggression.
Polish Prime Minister Tusk thanked Macron and Scholz for their immediate and intense support for Ukraine, highlighting the importance of financial aid and assistance to improve the situation in Ukraine in the coming weeks. Tusk also announced that the next Weimar Triangle meeting would be held in Poland in a few months, calling the current talks a “good new beginning for the Weimar Triangle.”
Media learns the real reason why Germany does not supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles
The key reason why German Сhancellor Olaf Scholz is actively opposing the supply of Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine may be connected with special features of the targeting system missiles. T-Online reported.
The information which Scholz called "secret knowledge" at the latest debates on the Taurus missiles in the Bundestag was disclosed at the special meeting of the parliamentary defence committee on 11 March.
At the meeting, Carsten Breuer, General Inspector of the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) made a 20-minute speech about the special features of these missiles.
The main problem Breuer pointed out was that a huge amount of data and a special computer program only the Bundeswehr has are needed for this missile to be used efficiently. “These are not gigabytes or terabytes but extremely large and complex amounts of data that need to be processed by special technical systems,”
If Germany supplied Ukraine with Taurus it would no longer have access to these systems itself and would significantly disrupt its own defence capability, as reported by t-online with reference to the participants of the meeting. The details of this system are classified, so the sources were not able to estimate how long it would take Berlin to recover.
At the same time, there is a possibility to supply Kyiv with these missiles in a "reduced" format, without the targeting system. In this case Taurus would be a complement to less powerful British cruise missiles Storm Shadow.
Family of deceased Ukrainian journalist sues Fox News for negligence
The family of 24-year-old Ukrainian fixer and journalist Oleksandra Kuvshynova, who was killed in March 2022, has filed a lawsuit against the US television company Fox News. Business Insider reports
The lawsuit was filed in the New York State Supreme Court by Kuvshynova's parents and Shane Thomson, a security adviser at SEPAR, a UK security agency that was contracted by Fox News at the time, accuses the broadcaster of negligence for sending a team of journalists working under contract to Fox News into an active combat zone despite numerous warnings from local officials and a security consultant who advised them not to do so.
The family believes that their loved one was unnecessarily put in danger.
Fox News issued a statement saying that they continue to mourn the deaths of Kuvshynova and Pierre Zakrzewski but will "respectfully defend against the false allegations in this lawsuit".
MILITARY & TECH
Russia is attempting to refine their combat tactics, hoping to improve their position
DeepState analysts report on the russian "Death Conveyor" tactic on the frontline. Russian occupiers initially employ FPV drones and artillery to suppress logistics, notably halting the movement of vehicles carrying ammunition.
According to experts, afterward, the enemy sends ground forces in several waves; moreover, for invaders, participation in the first or second wave of the attack is "95% certain death."
"The enemy initially sends the first wave of infantry forces ranging from squads to platoons. Our fire points and positions, which suppress its advance, are observed. Then the second wave is sent with the same forces, and they begin to suppress our fire points. Artillery, FPV drones, and worst of all - guided bombs, are used for suppression,"
Analysts added that after the second wave, professional russian assault forces typically enter the battle. But if the first two waves were not suppressed, and reserves are present, the enemy can make repeated attacks.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!