UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-03
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on May 3 stated that it was day 800 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day,134 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 70 air strikes, and 116 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
More than 120 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 ammunition depots, 1 air defense system, 2 artillery systems, and 1 anti-aircraft missile system
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 11 concentrations of troops and 1 anti-aircraft missile system
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 12 attacks in the vicinities of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kyslivka, Berestove, Novojehorivka (Kharkiv oblast), and Stelmakhivka (Luhansk oblast). Where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Lyman axis: The enemy launched 15 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Hrekivka, Nevs’ke, Serebryans’ke forestry (Luhansk oblast), plus Terny, Yampolivka, and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast). Where, supported by aviation, they attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 22 attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Novyi, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast). Where, with air support, the invaders attempted to improve their tactical position in that area.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 50 attacks in the vicinities of Kalynove, Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka , Sokil, Soloviove, Novopokrovske, Semenivka, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Netailove, and Pervomaiske (Donetsk oblast). Where, with the air support, the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast). The invaders made 16 attempts, with air support, to breach Ukrainian defense in that area.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 2 attacks, with air support, on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 9 unsuccessful assaults on the bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River attempting to dislodge them from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russian soldier kicks woman in the face for refusing to dance.
Local media on May 1, In occupied Sevastopol, Qirim, a man approached random girls and demanded that they dance the lezginka (a caucasian folk dance). When they refused, he started insulting them and then kicked one of them in the face. UNN reports.
According to the "head of Sevastopol's police department" Sergei Sigunov, the attacker was a member of a Storm Z unit of the Russian army and was on vacation in the city.
"The material was collected and sent to the military investigation committee, because they were in the area of the conflict, they came here for vacation," he was quoted as saying by the so-called local media.
THE HOME FRONT
SBI notifies ex-head of SBU Internal Security Directorate Naumov of suspicion of illegal enrichment
Investigators of the State Bureau of Investigations (SBI) notified the former head of the SBU Main Directorate of Internal Security, Andriy Naumov, of suspicion of illegal enrichment. Interfax Ukraine reports.
"In cooperation with the National Agency on Corruption Prevention and the Prosecutor General's Office, the Bureau discovered that the former official of the Service had acquired unjustified assets totaling UAH 32.7 million," the Bureau said on the Telegram channel on Friday. They did not indicate the name of the person involved.
However, interpreting from the details of the arrest, the suspect appears to be ex-SBU general Andriy Naumov, who left Ukraine on the eve of a full-scale Russian invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2022 stripped Naumov of the rank of general.
The Bureau stated that, while holding senior positions in the SBU, the defendant became the owner of Toyota Land Cruiser 200 worth almost UAH 2.3 million, registered in the name of his wife’s father, BMW X6 xDrive40d, worth EUR 116,000, registered in his wife's name, as well as almost EUR 593,000 and more than $120,000.
The SBI reminds that the previously indicated person was notified of suspicion of misappropriation, embezzlement of property or taking possession of it through abuse of official position, abuse of power (Part 4 of Article 191, Part 2 of Article 364 of the Criminal Code).
The SBI also notified him of suspicion of fraudulent misappropriation of more than UAH 3.2 million during his tenure as head of a state-owned enterprise during 2019-2021. The suspect has been placed on the international wanted list.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Gazprom plunges to worst loss in decades as sales to Europe collapse
Russian energy giant Gazprom plunged to its biggest loss in at least a quarter of a century after gas sales more than halved in the fallout from Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. The Financial Times reports.
The loss of $6.9 billion USD in 2023 underlines how the Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine has ravaged the state-owned natural gas monopoly, leading to plummeting sales in Europe, its main source of income.
Gazprom’s revenues fell almost 30 per cent year-on-year to Rbs8.5tn, with gas sales dropping from Rbs8.4tn to Rbs4.1tn.
The company’s Moscow-listed shares fell more than 4.4 per cent on the news. Most Russian analysts had expected it to make a small profit. Analysts said the losses showed how Gazprom, once a cash-rich “national champion” that used its strong hold over Europe’s energy supply as a geopolitical weapon, had failed to adapt to losing the EU market.
European countries, meanwhile, have had greater success than expected in finding alternative sources of gas: Russia’s share of Europe’s gas imports dropped from 40 per cent in 2021, the last full year before the invasion, to 8 per cent in 2023, according to EU data.
I DO SO LOVE THIS FOR THEM
Putin punishing Shoigu for failing to achieve Kremlin’s military goals in Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War in its May 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Tula Oblast Governor and known Wagner Group-affiliate Alexei Dyumin on May 2, further indicating that Putin may be seeking to reduce Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's power by balancing him with rivals.
Putin likely deliberately publicized his meeting with Dyumin following the high-profile arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 and before the presidential inauguration on May 7, possibly to punish the Shoigu-led MoD for failing to accomplish the Kremlin’s military goals.
Shoigu reportedly had a particularly close relationship with Ivanov and that Ivanov's arrest alongside the sudden reemergence to prominence of Dyumin may indicate that the Kremlin is dissatisfied with Shoigu’s performance.
ISW believes the Putin-Dyumin meeting suggests that Putin is likely the responsible decision-maker behind Ivanov’s arrest. ISW has routinely observed that Putin regularly rotates officials and military commanders in and out of favor in hopes of incentivizing different factions to strive to accomplish his objectives.
ISW has also observed that Putin routinely marks a shift in his favor by offering high-profile meetings with members of the opposing faction or dismissing military commanders. Putin, for example, humiliated Dyumin in August 2023 by reportedly cancelling their one-on-one meeting and ordering him to publicly escort Shoigu at an event.
ISW assessed that this gesture signified a notable victory for Shoigu’s circle within the Russian MoD and marked the confirmation of Dyumin’s fall from Putin’s favor. Russian officials also arrested and dismissed some officials and commanders following Prigozhin’s mutiny in summer 2023.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
US Congress doubles spending on artillery ammunition production
Congress doubled funding to $6 billion for the production of 155mm artillery shells to replenish stockpiles depleted by supplies to Ukraine and Israel, an Army official said on Thursday. Reuters reports.
Demand for 155 mm artillery rounds has soared since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Allies' supplies for their own defense have been run down as they have rushed shells to Kyiv, which fires thousands of rounds per day.
"By my math, the supplemental, we asked for about $3.1 billion related to 155 production and production increases. We appear to have gotten $6 billion. So that, I think, is a vote of confidence as we make our way to 100,000 shells a month." Doug Bush, the chief weapons buyer for the Army, said Tuesday
The U.S. Army included $3.1 billion to buy the artillery rounds and expand production in the recently signed $95 billion supplemental bill.
The U.S. plans to increase its monthly production rate for 155 millimeter artillery shells to 100,000 in the summer of 2025 Bush told reporters Thursday.
MILITARY & TECH
New boats enter service with the Ukrainian Navy
On May 2 a ceremony took place marking the acceptance into service of two new boats, the "Irpin" and "Reni" into the Ukrainian Navy. Under the direction of Vice-Admiral Alexei Neijpapa, commander of the Navy he Ukrainian Naval Ensign was raised on both ships. In attendance was a contingent from Estonia, led by the Commander of the Navy of Estonia Commodore Yuri Saska. The GSAFU reported.
The two boats were handed over to Ukraine by Estonia. Participants spent a moment of silence honored the memory of fallen soldiers and civilians who died as a result of armed aggression of the Russian Federation and set up memorial candles.
The commanders of both boats were officially presented their Naval ensigns which were formally raised on the boats for the first time, marking them officially entering service with the Ukrainian Navy.
The boats "Irpin" and "Reni" will perform combat missions, including the protection of civil shipping.
Ukraine won't be running short of ATACMS any time soon.
The United States has reached a production tempo of "dozens of missiles" a month but there are also no less important factors like currently available stockpile and more Defense Express reports.
Supplies of ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine are promising to become on a regular basis and in adequate quantities. This is evidenced by the statement of the U.S. Army's Assistant Secretary for defense acquisition, Douglas R. Bush, who noted that ATACMS production capacity has reached a sufficient level. Furthermore, the Pentagon is no longer concerned about ATACMS stocks running low, unlike in June 2023 when Bush's colleague Laura Cooper explained the continued denial of ATACMS by "practical aspects of availability."
In addition, Bush noted that a significant number of missiles, which were ordered many years ago, "is now hitting at just the right time to be able to support how we're supporting Ukraine without taking a hit to readiness," he's quoted as saying by Politico. The missile supplies will increase up to dozens delivered every few months until at least the end of 2024.
Defense Express tries to estimate how big is the stockpile of ATACMS in the United States armed forces, how much do they produce, as well as why ATACMS were taboo just a year ago, and what could have changed.
ATACMS is hardly a new missile: its active supply to the U.S. military began back in 1990. During that period, a substantial number of them were produced, although the actual exact figures are classified.
According to third-party estimates, Lockheed Martin had produced a total of 4,000 missiles, some 600 of which were spent during hostilities and exercises. Which, presuming all the rest still exist, is most likely around 3,400.
Below is a breakdown of publically released data on what was in inventory in 2007
Precisely, 1,076 units of the M39 cluster missile with a range of up to 165 km; 488 units of the M39A1 cluster missile with a range of 300 km — those have not been made since two short production periods in 1996 and 2003. Also, in 2003–2004, the production of two rare versions of the missile was discontinued: one is the M38A3 filled with self-guided BAT submunitions, 75 units in stock; and one more is the M48 with a unitary warhead and a range of up to 270 km, 153 units remaining.
From that point on, only the new M57 missiles with a unitary high-explosive-fragmentation warhead were produced. The earlier produced M39 and M39A1 were also converted into this version and received an updated index M57E1.
In 2020 Lockheed Martin announced that it had received an order worth $426 million for the production of 400+ missiles by March 31, 2023. Most likely, the figure encompassed both the brand-new and processed old missiles, let's tentatively assume 50/50.
In summation Defense Express’s analysis is that new and converted M57s, plus M48 with unitary warheads amount to almost 1,600 missiles. The figure should also be complemented by those produced and refurbished throughout 2023 and partly 2024, but these numbers are not available and not too relevant considering some of them went to foreign customers. The cluster variants have depleted down to around 1,100 units.
Therefore, tentatively, as of 2024 the USA could possess a total of more than 2,500 ATACMS in various states of condition and modification, including over 1,500 in the unitary HE-FRAG version with a range up to 300 km.
Due to a number of factors regarding ramping up production and the shenanigans regarding budgetary issues in the US while in 2020-2023 Lockheed Martin produced and restored, say, a dozen ATACMS per month at best, now it's dozens, in the plural. And another important factor is that the USA is finally nearing the mass production of PrSM, a successor of ATACMS with a range of 500–600 km.
Upcoming Ukrainian F-16s to successfully integrate with Soviet-era Mig-29 aircraft
An Air Force spokesman says the Ukrainian Air Force’s Soviet-made MiG-29 aircraft will be able to effectively cooperate with the soon-to-arrive F-16 aircraft, citing previous experience with joint operations. Ukrinform reports.
After the United States approved last fall, countries including the Netherlands, Denmark, and Romania are helping train Ukrainian F-16 pilots to counter Russia’s air superiority. Currently, twelve Ukrainian pilots are being trained in Denmark, Britain, and the US, and are expected to be combat-ready this summer. However, upon their return, only about six of the promised 45 F-16s from European allies may reportedly have been delivered.
“They will absolutely be able to. Earlier, there were training exercises in the 2000s, when F-16s flew to Ukraine together with our foreign partners, and during international exercises, they performed joint maneuvers with Su-27s and MiG-29s, and it was quite successful, quite effective,” Yevlash said.
He emphasized the importance of rearming Ukraine’s entire air fleet promptly for increased maintenance and operational efficiency. However, he acknowledged the current need to make do with the available resources.
We recently reported on an Air Force spokesman’s statement that F-16 will become operational in Ukraine in the very near future.
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