UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-13
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 18:00 on May 12 stated that it was day 809 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 146 combat engagements took place. The enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 57 air strikes, and 41 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
More than settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts came under enemy fire.
Ukrainian missile forces struck
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day the Ukrainian Air Force and Missile Forces launched strikes on 1 artillery system, 1 electronic warfare station, 1 UAVs control post, 15 concentrations of troops, weapons and military equipment.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: The enemy, with the air support, launched 10 attacks in the vicinities of Luk’yantsi, Hlyboke, Vovchans’k, and Buhruvatka (Kharkiv oblast).
Russians conduct offensive operations northwest of Lyptsi
Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group stated that as of Sunday evening, Russian troops have been conducting offensive operations in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, northwest of the village of Lyptsi. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
"Currently, the Russian forces are conducting offensive operations with assault groups northwest of Lyptsi, and are also trying to advance in areas that are separated from the area north of Lyptsi, where Russian troops have tried to achieve some success."
Voloshyn also stated that "the Ukrainian Defence Forces are operating on prepared defensive lines, fire is being landed with the task of disrupting the enemy's offensive completely and destroying the enemy as they are wedged into our defences."
He said that a decision was also made to reinforce Ukrainian combat units in the area.
New Commander appointed for the Kharkiv Front
In the aftermath of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast’s north, Mykhailo Drapatyi has replaced Yurii Halushkin as commander of the Kharkiv Operational and Tactical Grouping of Troops (OTUV), RBC-Ukraine reports citing the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group of Troops (OSUV).
During the night leading into 10 May, the Russians launched a new offensive wave on the Kharkiv front. The occupiers attempted to break through the Ukrainian defensive line with the support of armored vehicles. In response, the Ukrainian Armed Forces dispatched reserve units to the area. The Russians have managed to seize several border villages and are trying to capture the town of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian Forces repelled 9x attacks in the vicinities of Petropavlivka, Berestove (Kharkiv oblast), Stel’makhivka and Rozivka (Luhansk oblast),
Lyman axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 attacks in the vicinities of Novojehorivka, Makiivka, Serebryanske forest (Luhansk oblast), and Terny (Donetsk oblast), where the enemy, with air supprt, attempted to breach Ukrainian defences.
Siversk axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Spirne, Vyimka, Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast).
Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 attacks in the vicinities of Hryhorivka, Novyi, Andriivka and south of Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast), where the enemy made attempts to improve its tactical position.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 30 attacks near the settlements of Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovs’ke, Umans’ke, Yasnobrodivka, Netailove (Donetsk oblast), where the enemy, with air support, attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Ukraine forces shoot down Russian Su-25 attack aircraft near Avdiivka
The 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade on May 11 successfully shot down a Russian SU-25 attack aircraft in the Avdiivka direction, marking another significant achievement in aerial defence by Ukrainian forces. Euromaidan reports.
According to the General Staff, Russia has already lost 348 aircraft and 325 helicopters in its war against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian intelligence, at the outset of the full-scale invasion, Russia had approximately 1500 combat aircraft.
This development follows a similar incident reported exactly a week ago, on May 4, when President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the same brigade had shot down another Russian SU-25 in Donetsk region, underlining a persistent pattern of Ukrainian capability in defending its airspace against Russian air assaults.
Kurakhove axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka (Donetsk oblast), where the invaders, using air strikes, made 4 attempts to breach Ukrainian defense.
Vremika axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 attacks in the vicinities of Vodyane, Urozhaine and Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), where the enemy made attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy launched 2 assaults on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinity of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) operations during the day of May 12.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russian ammunition depot struck in occupied Luhansk’s Sorokyne
On 13 May, explosions occurred in the temporarily occupied Sorokyne (formerly Krasnodon), Luhansk Oblast, with local pro-Russian and Russian Telegram channels posting videos of thick black smoke and reporting four blasts at 11:21 Kyiv time. Liga reported.
Sorokyne is located more than 120 kilometres behind the frontlines, mere kilometres away from the Russian border.
Last September, occupied Sorokyne experienced massive explosions when the Yunist plant, used by Russians as a military base and logistics hub to store ammunition and equipment since 2014, was struck. The factory is situated near the highway leading to the regional capital of Luhansk.
In one of the videos published on social media today after the attack on occupied Sorokyne, a Russian narrator complains that “it hit the same place again,” which implies that the attack has targeted the Yunist plant again.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court arrests Agriculture Minister
Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi was arrested on 26 April 2024 by the High Anti-Corruption Court, which ordered him to pay a $2 million bail. Euromaidan reports. The minister, who resigned a day before and had his resignation accepted by parliament on 9 May, is accused of misappropriating state-owned land worth $10 million and attempting to seize an additional $6.3 million worth of land between 2017 and 2021, before he took office.
The arrest of Solskyi marks an unprecedented case in Ukraine’s fight against corruption, as it is the first time a sitting minister has been detained and charged by the country’s anti-corruption institutions. The case, investigated by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), not only exposes the alleged wrongdoings of a high-level official but also underscores the challenges Ukraine faces in combating graft and reforming its land privatisation processes, which have been exploited by oligarchs and officials since the 1990s.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Putin replaces Shoigu with civilian economist to run defence, in surprise move
Russian President Vladimir Putin tapped a civilian economist as his surprise new defence minister on Sunday in an attempt to gird Russia for economic war by trying to better utilise the defence budget and harness greater innovation to win in Ukraine. Reuters reports.
More than two years into the conflict, which has cost both sides heavy casualties, Putin proposed Andrei Belousov, a 65-year-old former deputy prime minister who specialises in economics, to replace his long-term ally, Sergei Shoigu, 68, as defence minister.
Putin wants Shoigu, in charge of defence since 2012 and a long-standing friend and ally, to become the secretary of Russia's powerful Security Council, replacing incumbent Nikolai Patrushev, and to also have responsibilities for the military-industrial complex, the Kremlin said. Patrushev will get a new, as yet unannounced, job.
The changes, certain to be approved by parliamentarians, are the most significant Putin has made to the military command since sending tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022 in what he called a special military operation.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the change made sense because Russia was approaching a situation like the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s, when the military and law enforcement authorities accounted for 7.4% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Belousov, a former economy minister known to be very close to Putin, shares the Russian leader's vision of rebuilding a strong state, and has also worked with Putin's top technocrats who want greater innovation and are open to new ideas. Belousov has played an important role in overseeing Russia's drone programme.
Ukraine strikes on Russian oil refineries successfully cripple Russian war machine, experts say
Despite concerns from Washington, Ukraine’s strategic strikes on Russian oil refineries are proving to be an effective method of curtailing Russian military capabilities without significantly impacting global energy markets.
Experts including Michael Liebreich from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and Sam Winter-Levy from Princeton University, in an article for Foreign Affairs, argue that these attacks, which have reduced Russia’s oil-refining capacity by approximately 14 percent, push Moscow to rely more on crude oil exports, potentially lowering global oil prices, not raising them.
Since October, Ukraine has conducted over 20 strikes on key Russian oil facilities, significantly disrupting operations and cutting off fuel supplies crucial for the Russian military while simultaneously decreasing the Kremlin’s export revenues. Such actions align with the objectives set by Ukraine and its Western allies, aiming to degrade Russia’s logistical and financial ability to sustain its military efforts.
Contrary to US apprehensions, as voiced by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, these strikes are unlikely to cause a surge in global oil prices. In fact, with Russia’s reduced capability to process oil domestically, it is forced to increase its crude exports, which could further depress global prices. Moreover, internal reports from Russia indicate significant increases in fuel prices within the country, suggesting that the strikes are indeed having a substantial impact on Russia’s domestic market and military operations.
According to the experts, the distinction in Ukraine’s strategy – targeting refineries instead of crude oil fields or pipelines – ensures that while Russia’s ability to convert crude into usable products is hampered, the overall supply of oil remains unaffected. This approach helps avoid a wider impact on global energy markets while still imposing significant constraints on Russia’s military operations.
Russia bombs itself… again
The Russian army accidentally dropped a FAB-500 bomb on its own territory in Belgorod, according to reports from local residents to emergency services. RFE/RL reported.
The heavy bomb landed near a residential area in Razumnoye-54 on the city outskirts, embedding itself in the ground without detonating. Authorities plan to evacuate nearby residents as a precaution. Ukrainian publication Defense Express analysed that the bomb likely had a UMPK guidance kit, turning it into a precision-guided munition.
You will recall we reported UK MOD analysis just a couple of days ago of this phenomenon. Which stated that “According to media estimates, about 20 munitions were dropped over the Belgorod region in this manner from March to April 2024.”
Belgorod Oblast has been a frequent staging ground for attacks on Ukraine’s Kharkiv.
Russian Defence Ministry claims high-rise in Belgorod damaged due to air defence operations
Russia's Defence Ministry has claimed that a 10-storey building in the Russian city of Belgorod has been severely damaged by wreckage of a missile downed by Russian air defence.
The Russians claimed that Belgorod Oblast had been attacked with the use of a Tochka-U tactical missile system and Vilkha and RM-70 Vampire multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS).
"Russian air defence assets have destroyed six Tochka-U missiles, four Vampire MLRS rockets and two Vilkha MLRS rockets while repelling the attack. Wreckage of one of the downed Tochka-U missiles has damaged a residential building in the city of Belgorod."
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Romanian PM says defence chief reluctant to send Ukraine Patriot system, but decision rests with defence council
Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu disclosed that Defense Minister Angel Tîlvăr harbours “serious reservations” about transferring Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, but Romania’s Supreme Council of National Defense (CSAT) will make the final decision, Digi24 reported.
Earlier, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis stated during his visit to the US on 7 May his openness to discussing sending a Patriot missile system to Ukraine, but he needs to consult his Supreme Defense Council to ensure Romania maintains its air defence capabilities.
The head of the Romanian government also says that he has not discussed the issue with Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis, and stated that the decision will be taken in the CSAT, together with the Romanian president.
“In our country, according to the Constitution, the supreme commander of the army is Mr. President Klaus Iohannis. I have not yet had a discussion following the president’s visit to the United States. I have had discussions with the Minister of Defense. The Minister of Defense has significant reservations about giving this system, one of the systems to Ukraine,” Marcel Ciolacu stated on May 12.
Canadian PM will attend Peace Summit in Switzerland
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated on Twitter that he will attend the Ukrainian Peace Summit in Switzerland in June.
"The First Peace Summit for Ukraine is in June – and Canada will be there. I look forward to joining other world leaders to advance our shared goal of just and lasting peace for Ukraine." Trudeau said on Twitter
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian Forces Down russian Ka-52 Helicopter
The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade achieved a significant victory by shooting down russian Ka-52 Alligator helicopter. Defense Express reports.
The Ka-52 Alligator is a formidable attack helicopter employed by the russian military, known for its advanced capabilities and firepower. However, its sophistication also comes with a hefty price tag, with each helicopter costing approximately $16 million. The loss of a Ka-52 Alligator helicopter is not just a financial setback but also a blow to their operational capabilities in the region.
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