UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-03-14
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Mar. 14 stated that it was 750 day of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 79 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 64 air strikes, and 93 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 2 concentrations of the russian invaders’ troops.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day it launched air strikes on 7 concentrations of enemy troops. Also, the Ukrainian Air Defense forces and means destroyed 1 missile.
Last night, the russian occupiers attacked Ukraine yet again, using 36 Shahed UAVs. The Ukrainian Air Defense forces and means destroyed 22 of the strike UAVs.
ISW warns of Russian breakthrough risk on frontline: Expert explains why it's not case
ISW analysts write that the shortage of ammunition and other weapons in Ukraine could make the current front line more fragile, which could be used by Russian troops for a sudden breakthrough. But the enemy does not currently have the potential to make this happen, according to military expert Petro Chernyk, as reported by RBC Ukraine.
ISW’s Statements
In a recent review, analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that Ukraine allegedly prioritizes sectors that are most threatened by intense Russian offensive operations. And allegedly, this could create vulnerabilities elsewhere.
Analysts suggest that the occupiers could take advantage of this by making a sudden and unexpected advance. But at the same time, they emphasize that this could happen if the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian Defense Forces continues to decline.
ISW believes that Russia's retention of the initiative in the entire theater of operations increases the risks of such a development, allowing the Russian military command to increase or decrease the scale of operations at any point on the front line almost at its own discretion.
Military Expert’s Response
Military expert Petro Chernyk says in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine that at the moment the Russian occupation forces have no one and nothing to make a breakthrough in certain areas of the front. If they had this potential, they would have used it long ago.
"The Russians can't replace 1000-1200 people a day anymore. And until Putin is reappointed as president and the concept of "get up, the great country" is used, I don't see how we can break through anything," Chernyk says.
He explains that a real breakthrough is when there is an advance in one point at least 3 km wide and 5 km deep.
"These are the operational indicators of a mechanized regiment. Nothing like this is happening at the moment. Is the enemy putting pressure? Yes, it is. Does it have local successes? Yes, it does. But after Avdiivka, he hasn't had any major successes. That's for sure," Chernyk emphasizes.
UK intelligence says Russia's advance on front slows down due to need to regenerate forces
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Mar. 14 Intelligence Update stated that Russian forces continue to prosecute attacks along several areas of the front line. Russia is focussing operations west of Avdiivka and Marinka, towns both in Donetsk Oblast. These axes account for 60 per cent of reported Russian attacks in the last four weeks.
However, the average number of reported weekly Russian ground attacks on Ukraine has reduced by 13 per cent since late February 2024, when the weekly average reached 600. Russia seized control of Avdiivka and several villages west of the town in February, but advances have slowed since.
It is highly likely that the overall situation will be challenging for Ukrainian forces in coming weeks with Russia continuing to regenerate forces and carry out attacks on priority axes.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 enemy assaults in the vicinity of Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast).
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 11 attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, and Verkhn’okam’yans’ke (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilhorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks east of Chasiv Yar, near Bohdanivka, and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and south of Zolota Nyva (Donetsk oblast). the enemy supported by aviation made 29 attempts to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops in that area.
Orikhiv axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 attacks near Robotyne, northwest of Verbove and south of Staromaiors’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Syrskyi: Ukraine begins rotation of long-serving frontline troops
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, announced the initiation of a rotation process for battalions and units that have been performing combat tasks on the frontline “for a long time.”
In a statement on Facebook, Syrskyi highlighted the significance of this development despite the challenging situation along the entire frontline.
“The positive aspect is that, despite the quite difficult situation across the entire frontline, we have managed to initiate the process of rotations and replacements for battalions and units that have been performing combat tasks on the frontline for a long time. This will allow us to stabilize the situation and positively affect the morale and psychological state of our soldiers,” Syrskyi stated.
Syrskyi emphasized the increasing role of strike drones as the main offensive weapon for ground units in combat and the growing importance of modern and powerful electronic warfare (EW) means for the reliable protection of Ukrainian servicemen.
“In these conditions, the confrontation between drones and EW has come to the forefront, and only the one who can first achieve a lead over the enemy in this competition will have a chance for victory,” Syrskyi concluded.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Lukoil Vice President's sudden death ruled as suicide, Russian media reports
Vitaly Robertus, Vice President of the Russian oil and gas firm Lukoil, whose death was reported on 13 March, committed suicide in his office according to the Russian propaganda sources.
Russian media reported that shortly before his death, Robertus complained of feeling unwell and asked for headache pills, after which he went to his office.
Grumpy says — I guess they couldn’t get the window opened…
WORLD NEWS
Stoltenberg urges NATO not to allow Putin to win war
NATO members should quickly provide additional military assistance to Ukraine to avoid a "great historic mistake" of a Russian victory on the battlefield, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. RBC-Ukraine reports.
He emphasizes that Ukrainians "have enough courage, they lack ammunition."
"Together we have the capacity to provide Ukraine with what it needs. Now, we need to show the political will to do so," the Secretary-General says.
Stoltenberg emphasizes that NATO countries must "dig deep and deliver quickly" as delay will lead to "real consequences on the battlefield".
"So, this is a critical moment. It would be a great historic mistake to allow Putin to prevail," he says.
Thousands of Slovakians came out against government’s pro-Russian policies
The protest was directed at Prime Minister Robert Fico’s foreign policy, which has raised concerns among critics for its strong criticism of Europe’s military aid to Ukraine and its push to renew Russian ties both culturally and politically. Reuters reports
Some 5,000 people gathered in Bratislava, Slovakia, on 12 March to protest against the Slovak government’s stance on Russia and its criticism of military aid to Ukraine, Reuters reported.
Slovak PM Robert Fico, who took power in October 2023, regularly faces opposition protests against his policies, mainly over revisions to the criminal code that critics say weaken the fight against corruption. However, this was the first protest aimed at his foreign policy.
The demonstration, organized by Michal Hvorecky, began with air raid sirens. “People in Ukraine hear this every day,” Hvorecky said, according to Reuters.
Macron, Scholz, and Tusk to hold Ukraine talks in Berlin
The Weimar Triangle meeting with the French President, German Chancellor, and Polish PM will take place in Berlin on 15 March. Politico reports.
French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Berlin on Friday to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and address growing tensions over Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will join them later, marking the first Weimar Triangle meeting since Tusk’s return to office in December 2023. Macron recently postponed a planned visit to Ukraine to allow time for talks with allies.
Tensions between France and Germany escalated in late February when Macron didn’t rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine, while Scholz opposed the idea. Macron later suggested that Europe must “not be cowards,” prompting a response from German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who said Macron’s comments were “something which does not really help solve the issues we have when it comes to helping Ukraine.”
German officials complain privately that while Macron has talked tough on Ukraine, he has not followed up with nearly as much military support as Germany has provided or promised, which is about €17.7 billion.
France disputes these figures, arguing that they provide the most crucial weapons. “France has opted for operational efficiency in its military aid to Ukraine: promise what you can deliver, deliver what you can promise,” Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu wrote on X.
French ex-National Rally leader Le Pen, once Putin’s ‘friend,’ condemns Russian invasion
Former leader of the French far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen, who had a long-standing reputation as “Putin’s friend,” unexpectedly criticized Russia for its war against Ukraine during a parliamentary debate.
The National Party leader Marine Le Pen has echoed Kremlin talking points over Ukraine both before and since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Russia reportedly long-runningly interfered in Le Pen’s politics – from party members legitimizing the annexation of Crimea to evidence of Moscow bankrolling her movement’s growth.
Le Pen unexpectedly changed her rhetoric in the last speech from the tribune of the National Assembly, saying on 12 March, “By invading Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russia launched a war at the gates of the EU and a geopolitical crisis that is undoubtedly the most dramatic of the last twenty years.”
Grumpy here — Moscow has assisted right-wing nationalist parties all over Europe and in particular Le Pen’s party for years. It is possible this is a sign that the money is beginning to run out, Or perhaps Le Pen just doesn’t see a chance of Russia being victorious?
Speaker Johnson promises to unblock aid to Ukraine that will “look substantially different” to $95 plan
House Speaker Mike Johnson told Republican Senators on 13 March that the House would send legislation to aid Ukraine; however, it would differ significantly from the $95 billion foreign aid package passed by the Senate last month, reported The Hill.
Johnson tried to reassure frustrated GOP senators who asked him about funding for Ukraine during a question-and-answer session at the annual Senate Republican retreat, which was held at the Library of Congress.
Johnson told senators that the House will send a Ukraine aid package to the Senate but floated the idea of making it a loan or lend-lease program so U.S. taxpayers would not be shelling out tens of billions of dollars without any expectation of getting a return, according to senators who participated in the discussion.
Grumpy Here — Johnson did not say how he planned to get such a bill through the Democrat controlled Senate or get President Biden to pass it. The Whitehouse has already said it did not wish to saddle Ukraine with enormous debt, when post war Ukraine will require billions to replace destroyed infrastructure.
Johnson’s plan also ignores the fact that the bill is not about giving Ukraine money, but manufacturing and providing the weapons and ammunition that Ukraine needs to defeat the invading Russian army. Almost all of the money earmarked would stay in the US providing good taxpaying jobs to Americans.
European Commission will propose to restrict grain imports from Russia and Belarus next week
The European Commission is expected to submit a proposal for quantitative restrictions on grain imports from Russia and Belarus next week, amid protests by European farmers and calls from Ukraine to take this step.
An unnamed European diplomat told RMF FM that the European Commission's proposal would include quotas on food products from Russia and Belarus. The EU wants to avoid a full embargo, fearing global price fluctuations and its negative impact on the world's poorer countries.
Transit of Russian and Belarusian agricultural products will continue to be allowed, the article says.
"Until now, there have been no quantitative restrictions on grain imports from Russia, while such restrictions exist for Ukrainian imports. This decision has become increasingly difficult to support from a moral and political point of view,"
MILITARY & TECH
Magura V5 naval drones to get anti-air and dive capabilities
Ukraine’s Magura V5 naval drones, successful in sinking Russian ships, aim for upgrades to improve defense against Russian attack helicopters and ship armament during suicide missions, enhancing their capabilities in challenging Russia’s Black Sea Fleet dominance. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
Ukraine has developed innovative naval drone capabilities to reclaim the Black Sea from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet domination. Ukrainian long-range strikes with surface suicide drones and cruise missiles have pushed Russian ships further away from the Ukrainian coast. Currently defenseless against Russian attack helicopters and ship armaments, maritime drones such as Magura V5 rely solely on maneuverability during suicide charges on Russian ships.
Ukraine plans to upgrade its Magura V5 naval drones to address their current defenselessness against Russian gunship helicopters that often hit them during drone suicide missions against Russia’s navy, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief: work is underway to improve the Magura to add capabilities of engaging ground, surface, and air targets.
“Specialists are currently working on installing air defense equipment on the [Magura V5] unmanned platform. I’m not a technician, but I understand that this is a rather difficult task. We need means of detecting a target, capturing an air object, and a means of destruction – and all of this must be placed on a fairly small platform. This is not an easy task from a purely technical point of view, but it is real [to achieve],” Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), said In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.
The Magura developer told Ukrainska Pravda that wave impacts and pressure drops strain the drone’s structure, making stabilizer development a significant challenge. However, work is already in progress to equip the drones with modules for targeting ground, surface, and air targets. Efforts are also being made to enhance their stealth, including the ability to dive underwater temporarily.
Ukraine could receive shells bought under Czech-led initiative in June
Euractiv reported with reference to a statement by Tomáš Pojar, Czech Prime Minister's National Security Advisor, that ammunition purchased under a Czech-led initiative may arrive in Ukraine as early as June.
So far, more than 15 countries have pledged to finance the purchase of ammunition. These include Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Norway, as well as non-European allies such as Canada.
While Czechia finds available munitions around the world, other countries provide the necessary funding. Czechia then coordinates the delivery of the munitions to Ukraine.
"The promised money has to come, and the contracts must be made. At the point when the contract is concluded, it will take several weeks to get it (the ammunition) to Ukraine," Pojar said.
Pojar refused to disclose the origin of the ammunition, saying that the initiative is looking for ammunition around the world "wherever it is available at a reasonable price and of reasonable quality."
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