UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-24
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Aug 23 stated that day 912 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 125 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 52 air strikes, 479 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine claims technological advances counter Russian numerical superiority
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported citing Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk stated in an interview with Ukrainian outlet Ukrinform published on August 23 that the Ukrainian military has been able to inflict heavy losses against significantly larger quantities of Russian armoured vehicles, artillery, and other equipment due to Ukrainian tactics and Ukraine's effective use of available weapons.
Havrylyuk stated that Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 8,500 Russian tanks, 17,000 artillery systems, 1,000 air defence systems, about 370 aircraft, and 2,500 cruise missiles since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
ISW cannot confirm these figures, however. Havrylyuk stated that Russian forces have fired roughly 300,000 artillery shells throughout the theatre each month on average and aimed to overwhelm Ukrainian forces with Russia's large artillery advantage. Havrylyuk stated that more precise (and effective) Western artillery systems can offset these advantages as long as Russian forces do not have an artillery advantage greater than three-to-one.
Ukrainian forces have leveraged GMLRS rocket artillery and NATO 155mm artillery systems and ammunition capable of striking targets at longer ranges than Russian / Soviet field artillery to conduct superior counterbattery fire throughout the war in Ukraine. Havrylyuk added that Ukrainian artillery units also use tactics that provide greater mobility than Russian artillery units and therefore conduct more effective counterbattery fire.
Havrylyuk noted that Ukraine's rapidly growing use of unmanned systems is another example of how Ukrainian forces can reduce costs while inflicting high losses on Russian forces and that increased Ukrainian drone use in 2024 has led to higher Russian artillery and armoured vehicle losses. Havrylyuk stated that long-range precision strikes into Russia would allow Ukraine to prevent Russia from transferring larger quantities of ammunition and equipment to the frontline and that strikes against military bases, arsenals, and logistic routes within Russia would heavily degrade Russian artillery advantages.
Western self-imposed restrictions on military aid provisions to Ukraine and policies restricting Ukrainian long-range strikes against military targets within Russia are constraining Ukrainian capabilities to degrade Russian materiel advantages.
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukraine continues to advance in Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast on August 23. Geolocated footage published on August 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced further in southern Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced north of Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha) along the Sudzha-Sukhodolovka R-200 highway.
Russian sources claimed that fighting continued throughout the line of contact in Kursk Oblast on August 22 and 23.
Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated on August 22 that the US is gaining "a better understanding" of Ukraine's goals in Kursk Oblast and noted that Ukraine wants to create a buffer zone in Kursk Oblast.
Singh stated that the US is still working to determine how the buffer zone fits into Ukraine's strategic objectives and that the US continues to provide materiel to support Ukraine's battlefield needs. Singh clarified that current US restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian border areas allows Ukrainian forces to engage in counterfire while defending against Russian attacks across the international border, including in Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 2 Russian attacks over the last day near Hlyboke and Vovchansk. 1 engagement continues in Vovchansk.
Kupyansk axis: The enemy carried out 15 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Sinkivka, Petropavlika, Kruhlyakivka and Stelmahivka. 4 engagements are still ongoing.
Lyman axis: The enemy carried out 11 attacks against Ukrainian positions near Sinkivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Terny and Torske
Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 7 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne and Vyimka.
Kramatorsk axis: Russian forces carried out 20 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar, Kalinina and Andriviika. 2 battles continue.
Toretsk axis: There have been 7 Russian attacks over that last day with air support. All the efforts of the enemy were directed to the areas of Toretsk and Nelipivka. 1 battle continues in Nelipivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The greatest activity of the enemy today occurred in the Pokrovsk sector. The enemy conducted 33 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day concentrating in the vicinity of Kalynove, Zelene Pole, Vozdvizhenka, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka and Ptyche 11 battles continue.
Kurakhove axis: Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance 14 times in the area of settlements Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka and Kostiantinivka.
Vremivka axis: In this sector the situation is under control, Russian forces made 4 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Voidane and Vuhledar
Orikhiv axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Putin cannot dictate red lines to Ukraine, says Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked his country's Independence Day with a warning to the Kremlin that Russia could not "dictate red lines" to Kyiv over the two-and-a-half-year conflict. DW reports.
"The sick old man of Red Square, who is constantly threatening with his red button, will not dictate red lines to us," Zelenskyy said in a speech to the nation, referencing Russian President Vladimir Putin's previous threat to possibly use nuclear weapons.
"Russia was seeking one thing: to destroy us... Instead, today we celebrate the 33rd Independence Day of Ukraine and what the enemy brought to our land has now returned to its home."
The Ukrainian leader's address was recorded in the region around Sumy in the country's northeast, from where Kyiv's forces staged an incursion into Russia's western Kursk region on August 6.
Zelenskyy added that Russia would soon "know what retribution is," and vowed that Kyiv would not allow its territory to be turned into a buffer zone.
He said Putin should instead take care that his own country did not become a "buffer federation."
Zelenskyy previously said Ukraine entered Kursk to create a "buffer zone" to prevent cross-border attacks by Moscow’s forces and to force the Kremlin into a "fair" peace deal.
115 more prisoners of war liberated from Russian captivity
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported on Aug 24 Ukraine has liberated 115 more Ukrainian prisoners of war from Russian captivity.
"Today, 115 more of our defenders have been brought back home. These are soldiers from the National Guard, the Armed Forces, the Navy and the State Border Guard Service."
The president also expressed gratitude to all units replenishing the prisoners-of-war exchange pool.
"This brings the liberation of our soldiers and civilians from Russian captivity closer. I am thankful to our team, our partners and the UAE for helping bring our people home," Zelenskyy added.
The Coordination Headquarters noted that all those freed in the 55th POW swap are conscripts, including some who were captured by Russian forces in the early months of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Among those released are 9 Ukrainian soldiers illegally convicted by Russia, sailors, 3 border guards, and 82 defenders of Mariupol (fifty of whom defended Azovstal Steelworks).
Russians strike centre of Kostiantynivka, killing at least 5
Vadym Filashkin, Head of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration stated on Telegram that Russians attacked the city centre of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on Saturday, 24 August, killing 5 civilians and injuring at least 5 more.
Investigation materials indicate that at 11:46 on 24 August, Russian forces launched an artillery attack on the city of Kostiantynivka, specifically targeting a residential area.
As a result of the attack, five residents – three men and two women – sustained fatal injuries.
A man and four women who have suffered injuries of varying degrees of severity were taken to medical facilities. They are currently receiving qualified medical assistance.
The final number of casualties is being determined. Filashkin once again urged residents to evacuate.
Zelenskyy promotes Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi to the rank of general
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has promoted Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to the rank of general.
The decree No. 580 is dated 23 August 2024. Prior to this, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine held the rank of Colonel General.
"Colonel General Oleksandr Stanislavovych Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, shall be promoted to the rank of General."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Drone strikes ignite ammunition depot, trigger detonations in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast
Russian authorities claim to have intercepted five drones in Voronezh Oblast overnight, but falling debris sparked a fire at a munitions storage site, forcing the evacuation of 200 residents. Euromaidan Press reports.
A series of drone attacks on the southwestern Voronezh Oblast in Russia overnight resulted in a fire and ongoing detonations at an ammunition storage site, prompting evacuations and a state of emergency declaration.
Ukrainian drone attacks have recently intensified against Russian military supply chains and oil depots, disrupting logistics and reducing fuel supplies for the Russian military.
Ostrogozhsk, the site of the incident, houses a training centre for junior armoured vehicle service specialists. The town had also planned to open an exhibition commemorating the Russian capture of Ukrainian Mariupol, according to Radio Liberty Russia.
According to Voronezh Governor Aleksandr Gusev, air defence and electronic warfare systems intercepted and suppressed five unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) overnight. The falling fragments caused a fire, leading to the detonation of explosive objects, Gusev reports.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Washington restricting Ukrainian strikes on Russia in hopes of eventual reset in relations with Moscow.
Some officials in Washington have told Kyiv the U.S. is keeping its restrictions on Ukraine using U.S.-made long-range weapons against Russian territory in order to not upend any future reset with Moscow, Politico reported, citing unnamed officials in the Biden administration.
However, one senior Ukrainian advisor also told Politico that there are signs that Biden may want to do “something big in Ukraine,” and possibly lift some restrictions before the election.
Kyiv has long argued that restrictions on the use of long-range weapons are stifling its war effort, while Washington has claimed that allowing Ukraine to hit deep into Russian territory with its weapons could be a cause for escalation.
Ukraine has dismissed these arguments and has amped up pressure to lift the ban in recent weeks following the Kursk incursion on Aug. 6. The White House has not budged on its position despite some U.S. politicians backing Kyiv’s demands.
Mike Pompeo, a former U.S. State Secretary in Donald Trump's administration, said U.S. President Joe Biden should not restrict Kyiv but instead send Ukraine the weapons it needs to win, in an X post on Aug. 24. He added that the Kursk incursion shows that a Ukrainian "defeat is not inevitable."
The U.S. permitted Ukraine in June to strike Russian military targets just across the border but maintained its ban on attacks deep inside Russia with long-range arms like ATACMS.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine’s capture of the Russian town of Sudzha, near Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, shows that there are no red lines when it comes to Russian escalation. Ukraine has advanced some 35 kilometres into Russia’s Kursk Oblast and so far Moscow has not escalated the war.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Heorhii Tykhyi, said on Aug. 13 that the incursion aims to prevent Moscow from sending reinforcements to the front in Donetsk Oblast. It is also designed to disrupt Russian logistics and halt cross-border attacks in lieu of restriction on long-range strikes with Western arms.
Tykhyi said that the incursion would be "less necessary" if Kyiv were allowed to "fully utilise (its) long-range capabilities" against Russia.
The Pentagon said that Ukraine can use U.S. weapons in the incursion. However, the U.K. has reportedly not allowed Ukraine to use British-supplied Storm Shadow as part of the incursion, maintaining their policy of only permitting strikes within Ukrainian sovereign territory.
MILITARY & TECH
Zelenskyy announces Ukraines development of “Palianytsia” missile-drone
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces had successfully deployed a new missile-drone weapon system called “Palianytsia” against Russian military targets for the first time.
Ukrainian Palianytsia is a traditional round wheat bread that has a distinctive, slightly domed shape with a golden crust and a soft, fluffy interior. This word is difficult for non-Ukrainian speakers to pronounce correctly, making it a symbolic way to identify Ukrainian speakers amid Russian full-scale invasion.
Speaking during Independence Day celebrations, Zelenskyy said that the Palianytsia represents a “completely new class” of weaponry. While specific details about the drone’s capabilities were not disclosed, the president confirmed that it had successfully struck enemy positions.
Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin said that on August 24, the new weapon was successfully used for the first time. This information was also confirmed by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
“It struck an enemy military facility in the temporarily occupied territory,” said Kamyshin.
According to the minister, Palianytsia is a drone and a missile at the same time, which falls under both definitions in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.
The defence industry will begin to increase production of the new product for strikes on Russian military targets.
South Africa blocks artillery shell delivery to Poland
South African authorities have blocked the supply of artillery shells from the German concern Rheinmetall’s plant located in the country to Poland. Militarnyi reports.
The sources of the Polish edition of Rzeczpospolita, who said that the government of South Africa did not want these munitions to get to Ukraine, reported on this.
According to the publication, 50,000 155-mm shells were ordered by Warsaw to replenish its stockpile in 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Poland did not receive them.
The shells were to be manufactured by the South African company Rheinmetall Denel Munition, which is 51% owned by German Rheinmetall.
The National Armaments Agency told the publication that the contract had been terminated in July 2023 “due to problems with the project implementation by the subcontractor.”
Production of 155-mm shells at Rheinmetall Denel Munition in South Africa. Frame from the Rheinmetall video According to Rzeczpospolita, Poland can produce only 30,000 shells a year, provided that subcontractors, mainly from Slovakia, fulfill their obligations in full.
At the same time, the publication notes that Poland needs at least one million rounds of 155-mm ammunition to effectively defend itself against a potential Russian attack.
In March 2023, the government approved a secret decree to expand the production and purchase of ammunition, the article says.
Warsaw is currently buying artillery shells from South Korea, and an artillery plant may be built in Poland.
Last year, U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety said that South Africa had supplied Russia with arms and ammunition.
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