UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-05-20
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 23:00 on May 19 stated that day 817 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 105+ combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 35 air strikes, 409 drone strikes and 2900+ shellings (including 90 MLRS strikes) across the positions of our troops.
The situation at the front remains tense but controlled. Defense Forces continue to decisively counter the enemy's attempts to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine, directing efforts to thwart the execution of the occupiers' plans to attack.
Air Force Daily Report
At the night of May 20, 2024, the invaders attacked Kharkiv with a ballistic missile "Iskander-M", and also applied 29 "Shahed" UAVs from the areas of Primors Уko-Akhtarsk and kursk (Russia).
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, all 29 "martyrs" were shot down in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Lviv regions.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: In the past day there were 11 combat clashes. The invaders assisted by air strikes attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyptsi, Zelene, Startsya, and Vovchansk (Kharkiv oblast)
Kupyansk axis: Defense forces successfully repelled 12 enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Brestove. (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: The enemy conducted no assaults in this direction. The situation is under control, measures are being taken to strengthen the defense borders.
Siversk axis: Since the beginning of the day, tough battles have been going on in this direction. Throughout the day, Russian occupiers have made 23 attempts to break through the defenses of our troops, including 17 attacks in the area of Bilohorivka ( Luhansk oblast)
Kramatorsk axis: Russian aggressors tried 14 times, with air support, unsuccessfully to break through Ukrainian defenses near the settlements of Kalynivka, Novyi, Ivanivske, Klishchievka and Andriivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The aggressor intensely attacked in this direction all day, conducting 25 assaults with air support of Ukrainian positions. In the areas of Yasnobrodivka and Netailove (Donetsk oblast)
Kurakhove axis: Russians made 10 assaults on the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinity of Heorgiyivka, Paraskoviyivka, Novomykhailivka and Vodyane (Donetsk oblast) All attacks were repelled. The situation is under control
Vremika axis: The enemy made 4 unsuccessful attacks in the area of Staromaiorske and Urozaine
Orikhiv axis: Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 attacks of the enemy in the area of the settlement of Krynky (Kherson oblast).
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Defense Ministry approves new human capital policy for defence forces
The Defense Ministry of Ukraine has approved a new policy regarding the engagement and retention of human capital in the defence forces. Interfax Ukraine reported.
"The Ministry of Defense has approved a new human capital policy for the defence forces! The document is aimed at meeting the requirements of compatibility with NATO and should radically change the state's approach to people in the defence forces," the press service of the ministry said on the Telegram channel on Monday.
It is indicated that among the main innovations are a human-centric personnel management system and the development of management culture.
In addition, the new policy will include, in particular, the formation of defense consciousness, reform of the social sphere and veterans' policy, an updated healthcare system, as well as qualitative changes in monetary support.
Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Natalia Kalmykova said that work on the formation of a new policy began in the fall of 2023.
"We used the best experience of Western partners, adapting it to Ukrainian realities. Specialists from the Defense Ministry's Personnel Management Committee, NATO strategic advisers and representatives of the public sector worked on the policy. I am sincerely grateful to everyone involved in this important work. The implementation of this policy will change the Ukrainian army, will make it more efficient and modern," she said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Nearly Every Sanctioned Russian Oil Tanker Remains Idle and Empty Months After Sanctions
Dozens of tankers remain stuck doing nothing months after being sanctioned by the Treasury Department — a signal of the US’s scope to disrupt Moscow’s petroleum supply chain if it chooses to. Bloomberg reports.
Since October, 40 ships involved in Russia’s oil trade have been added to the Treasury’s list of designated entities, mostly for breaching a price cap that’s meant to restrict the Kremlin’s access to petrodollars.
Only one of them, the SCF Primorye, collected a cargo since being designated. It is heading to Asia. if it’s able to offload the barrels it’s carrying without any problems, it might encourage Russia to use more of the ships again.
The sanctions and price cap that have been imposed on Russia have been criticized for being too easy for Moscow to work around, given how large the country’s crude flows have remained. However, the inactivity of the fleet shows that when measures are taken against individual vessels, they can be effective.
Twenty-one of of the 40 belong to Russia’s state-controlled shipping company, Sovcomflot PJSC. Most of the other 19 are controlled by United Arab Emirates-based Hennesea Holdings Ltd.
One of the 40, the Turkish-owned Yasa Golden Bosphorus, was removed from the list in April, allowing it to benefit from international standard services, such as insurance. Since being de-listed, the ship has loaded a cargo of US crude, but remains anchored off the Texas coast.
The rest of the sanctioned ships are sitting idle and empty, dotted around the world, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Russia is currently experiencing a labour shortage
The UK Ministry of Defence in its May 20 Intelligence Update reported that Russia is currently experiencing a labour shortage that is becoming a significant problem in some sectors and could bring back labour conscription.
According to estimates by the independent Russian media outlet Izvestia, Russia had a 4.8 million shortage of workers in 2023. As an example, the Russian transport and logistics industry was unable to fill 25 percent of its truck driver vacancies during 2023.
The labour shortage has at least in part been caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, which has led to mobilisation of parts of the working population and emigration by some skilled professionals seeking to avoid the call-up. More recently, the labour shortage has been exacerbated by restrictions on migrant employment implemented following the 22 March 2024 ISIS-K terrorist incident in Moscow.
As a result of the labour shortages, a group of Russian parliamentarians are looking at possible amendments to the Russian labour code. If enacted, it would mean that excess labour force could be moved under state supervision to a place of work which lacks sufficient labour. The moves will be temporary and workers will only be transferred with their consent. However, although not coercive, it is a potential move towards the mobilisation of labour.
— UK Ministry of Defence Intelligence Update
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Pentagon chief: Weeks and months ahead will be crucial for Ukraine
The coming weeks and months will be crucial for Ukraine, and Western countries will continue to act decisively to help the country fight for its freedom, says Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin. RBC-Ukraine reported.
"Ukraine's survival and success are central to Ukrainian security, European security, global security — and American security," he said.
The Pentagon chief adds that if Russian leader Vladimir Putin prevails, tyrants will conclude that they can also try to invade and conquer their sovereign neighbors.
Austin said that this would leave Europe under Putin's shadow and make the world more violent and chaotic. Therefore, Ukraine's fight for freedom and security is important for all Western states.
"And I am more determined than ever to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to succeed," he said.
Former Deputy Secretary of State believes US should help Ukraine strike military targets in Russia
Ukraine has a right to strike military targets on Russian Federation soil, and the US and its allies should support the country in doing so, said Victoria Nuland, former US Deputy Secretary of State, in an interview with ABC News after Russia's offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. ABC news reported.
Commenting on Russian forces' recent advances in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, Nuland emphasised that Ukraine should be equipped to counter Russian operations launched from Russian bases.
"I think if the attacks are coming directly from over the line in Russia, that those bases ought to be fair game, whether they are where missiles are being launched from or where the troops are being supplied from," she added.
The former US Secretary of State feels that the moment for this has come after Russia's latest escalation of the war, which now threatens and attempts to destroy Kharkiv "without ever having to put a boot on the ground".
"So I think it is time to give the Ukrainians more help hitting these bases inside Russia," Nuland emphasised.
According to her, this will not result in Moscow escalating and the United States becoming more involved in the fight, because Russia is responsible for the escalation and now gets "direct advantage in this war from our hesitation"
India will participate in Peace Summit in Switzerland
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stated in an interview with PTI, that his country will participate in the Peace Summit in Switzerland which will be held on 15-16 June.
Commenting on the invitation to participate in the G7 meeting and the Peace Summit, Modi revealed that India will participate in all the important summits which push the agenda of global peace, security and development.
He added that India will "resonate the voice of the Global South" at these summits to shape the global discourse and advance the vision for human-centric development and a prosperous and peaceful world.
At the same time, Modi did not specify whether he personally would be present at the summit. "The level of participation will be the factor of timing, logistics and parallel commitments," he said.
MILITARY & TECH
Senator MRAP saves Ukrainian Soldiers from mine blast
Three days ago, a Canadian built Roshel Senator MRAP encountered an 8kg anti-tank mine. Despite the powerful explosion, all Ukrainian soldiers on board survived without injuries. Defense Express reports.
This incident marks the first documented instance where a commercial-based armored vehicle has successfully withstood such an attack, highlighting its robust protective capabilities.
The Senator MRAP is built on the heavy-duty commercial platform of the Ford F-550, making it a preferred choice for combat teams due to its ease of serviceability and maintenance. Leveraging the widespread and established service network of Ford vehicles, the Senator MRAP ensures efficient and accessible maintenance support worldwide. The vehicle’s high ground clearance, four-wheel drive, and 6.7L turbo diesel engine provide effective off-road capabilities across various terrains.
A crucial feature of the Senator MRAP is its V-shaped body design, which enhances survivability during explosive attacks, particularly from landmines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This design incorporates a pronounced V-shape that deflects the force of an explosion away from the vehicle’s cabin, minimizing the impact and reducing the risk of severe injury or death to the occupants. The V-shaped hull helps absorb and dissipate the explosive energy, further enhancing the vehicle’s blast resistance.
The recent incident demonstrated results identical to the STANAG blast test, with the vehicle’s capsule remaining intact. In 2023, the Senator MRAP successfully passed the stringent STANAG 4569 AEP-55 Level 3a blast test and exceeded Levels 2a, 2b, and 2c, withstanding a side blast of 25 kg of TNT.
Roshel has already delivered more than 1,000 Senator vehicles to Ukraine. The company has since become one of the largest armored vehicle manufacturers in Canada, producing Senator vehicles in various configurations, including the Senator APC, ERV, MRAP, and Senator Pickup, designed for cargo transport, counter-UAV systems, mortar installations, and other equipment.
The company is currently working on a new 8×8 project.
UK transfers 80 air defence missiles, more than 1 mln rounds of ammunition, drones and mine clearance systems to Ukraine
Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Grant Shapps, has announced the transfer of a new package of military assistance to Ukraine.
“The world cannot wait, Ukraine needs us to step up so they have what they need to push Putin back. That’s exactly what the UK has done today,” Shapps said on X Sunday.
According to him, the military assistance package includes more than 1 million different ammunition, 80 missiles for air defense systems, 20 amphibious vehicles, 20 mine clearance systems, 4,000 units of military equipment, 30 pallets with spare parts and an unspecified number of long-range unmanned aerial vehicles.
The Ukrainian Air Force says it is ready to receive new F-16 aircraft
Ukraine is ready to accept the new F-16s to strengthen its air capabilities, as it currently uses Soviet aircraft, and some Ukrainian pilots are already completing training on American F-16s. Air Force spokesman Ilya Yevlash said on Monday UNN reports.
Of course, we are ready, because we are still using Soviet aircraft, Su-27, Mig-29, Su-25, 24, as well. Including, of course, F-16s, which will enhance our capabilities. Of course, a few pieces are not as many as we would like, but of course, even these aircraft will be worth their weight in gold, helping us to perform various tasks, both in the airspace and on land
— Ilya Yevlash UAF spokesman
Some Ukrainian pilots have already completed training on American F-16s. When the fighter jets arrive in Ukraine, the pilots will be ready to perform missions, the Ukrainian Air Force said.
Ukraine may have sunk Russian ship with US ATACMS rockets
In blowing up a Russian minesweeper, Ukraine may have revealed a secret: It has ATACMS rockets with 470-pound warheads. Forbes reports.
The Ukrainian defense ministry claimed its forces sank the minesweeper Kovrovets in an overnight strike on the port of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, 150 miles south of the front line. Russian Telegram channels confirmed the loss.
“Another bad day for the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” the Ukrainian defence ministry quipped.
In 27 months of hard fighting since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Ukrainians have sunk or badly damaged more than a dozen of the Black Sea Fleet’s pre-war force of around three dozen large warships. So sinking a 200-foot minesweeper—one of two belonging to the Black Sea Fleet—isn’t all that remarkable.
What is remarkable is how the Ukrainians may have sunk Kovrovets: with a pair of American-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems rockets, or ATACMS.
The two-ton, ground-launched ATACMS isn’t usually an anti-ship weapon. It’s for attacks on land. That’s because the inertially-guided ATACMS is, according to most sources, accurate to within 30 feet of its target. That’s not accurate enough to reliably hit a ship with a single large warhead.
Some ATACMS models, including the 100-mile M39 and 190-mile M-39A1 models Ukraine has received from the United States in at least two batches totaling at least 120 missiles, scatter hundreds of grenade-sized submunitions. That mitigates a lack of pinpoint accuracy.
But while submunitions can damage a ship’s topside, they’re unlikely to sink it, as sinking it requires breaching the hull
If Ukraine did indeed hit Kovrovets with ATACMS, it could mean two things. First, Ukraine has gotten 170-mile M48 or 190-mile M57 ATACMS with 470-pound warheads in addition to getting M39 and M39A1 ATACMs with submunitions.
Second, the M48 and M57 are more accurate than many observers assumed.
The implications are enormous. For starters, what remains of the Black Sea Fleet that’s still anchoring at Sevastopol, well within range of the M39A1, M48 and M57, is in big trouble. “If ATACMS are taking out Russian warships in Sevastopol, hard to see the base having much utility left for the Russians,” pointed out Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
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