UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-18
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report.
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia destroying evidence by flattening occupied Mariupol torture site
Advisor to the legitimate mayor of occupied Mariupol, Petro Andriushchenko, has reported that Russians are dismantling the ‘main torture facility of the city,’ located in a section of the building in the Central Police Department, where Ukrainians were subjected to torment.
He explained that this is a part of the Central Police Department building, where the main filtration point for Ukrainians and the primary torture facility were located.
Russian forces occupied the Ukrainian city of Mariupol in May 2022, practically destroying the city. One of the symbols of the Mariupol tragedy was the drama theatre, which became the largest shelter in the city, housing thousands of local families. The facility was clearly marked from the air as a shelter.
On 16 September 2022, Russians bombed it, causing the collapse that claimed the lives of several hundred people. After the complete occupation of the city, Russians levelled the theatre to the ground and are now constructing a new one, likely to conceal the evidence of their war crimes.
UK intel: Russia to extend voting to Ukraine’s occupied areas to legitimise invasion
In its December 17 intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defense says Russia is going to extend voting in its 2024 presidential election to occupied Ukrainian regions in a move by Russian authorities to rig results and present the invasion of Ukraine as legitimate.
On 11 December 2023, the Russian Central Election Commission announced that voting in the March 2024 presidential election would extend to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. This follows their inclusion in the September 2023 Russian regional elections.
As with the regional elections, it is almost certain that presidential election voting in the Russian-controlled regions will be neither free nor fair. The Russian authorities almost certainly see achieving the ‘correct’ results in these regions as a priority because they want to give the perception of legitimacy to Russia’s invasion.
The Russian administration will almost certainly utilise methods including substantive electoral fraud and voter intimidation to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin wins in the regions by a substantial margin.
Friendly fire: Russians downed their own SU-25 in Eastern Ukraine
According to Ukrainian military sources, On 17 December, Russian occupying forces in eastern Ukraine accidentally downed their own SU-25 attack aircraft, confirmed by the Ukrainian Air Forces command.
“I can confidently state that it was not the Ukrainian air defence that shot down the Russian Su-25 attack aircraft! These were clearly the coordinated actions of Russian anti-aircraft troops, for which the entire Ukrainian people sends them great thanks!”
— Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
Russian military bloggers were the first to report the SU-25 loss, attempting to attribute it to adverse weather conditions and confirming the death of the pilot.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian air attack kills civilian as Ukraine downs all 20 Russian Shahed drones, missile
Ukraine destroyed all 20 Russian explosive drones in an overnight aerial attack on Dec. 17, but wreckage from one downed drone crashed and killed a civilian in Odesa Oblast.
Ukraine’s Air Force says the Russians launched 20 Shahed one-way attack drones from Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk and occupied Crimea’s Cape Chauda, targeting southern Ukraine. Additionally, the Russian occupation forces launched one Iskander-K cruise missile from occupied Crimea and one Kh-59 air-launched guided missile from the occupied part of Kherson Oblast.
“As a result of combat operations, 20 Shaheds and one Kh-59 guided missile were shot down. The Iskander-K cruise missile did not reach its target. Air targets were destroyed in Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts,”
— Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Drones attack Russia’s tactical bomber base in Rostov Oblast
Russia’s MoD claims to have repelled a massive UAV attack from Ukraine, allegedly intercepting and destroying 33 suicide drones. Local sources say one of the attack’s main targets was a bomber air base near Rostov’s Morozovsk.
Russian Telegram channel Astra shared videos of an alleged air attack on Morozovsk in Russia’s Rostov Oblast. The local military airfield is home to the Russian Airspace Forces’ 559th Guards Bomber Regiment (military unit #75392), where Su-24, Su-24M, and Su-34 tactical-level bombers are deployed.
Rostov Oblast governor Vasily Golubev claimed that “most of the UAVs were destroyed, no one was injured” during a fixed-wing drone attack near Morozovsk and Kamensk. Russian sources later posted a picture on Twitter of a damaged SU-34
Photo of damaged Russian SU-34 from Twitter
Ukrainian officials have not yet commented on the attack. This follows a large-scale drone attack on Qirim on Dec. 15.
Combat engagement takes place inside Russia
Ukrainian intelligence confirmed combat clashes between Russian forces and ‘opponents of the Kremlin regime’ near the village of Terebreno in the bordering Belgorod region of Russia.
“The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirms that clashes occurred near the village of Terebreno in Russia Belgorod Oblast. As a result of an attack carried out by opponents of the Kremlin regime, a platoon stronghold of Russian forces was destroyed,”
— Ukrainian Intelligence Spokesperson
The Freedom of Russia Legion, a group of Russian volunteers supporting Ukrainian forces, claimed responsibility for an attack near Terebreno in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, escalating tensions in the border region.
Terebreno is situated near the border with the Sumy Oblast of Ukraine, with approximately 200 residents. According to preliminary information, the battle began around 11 AM on 17 December.
UK intel: Russian Storm-Z convict soldiers deployed with unhealed wounds
The UK Ministry of Defense, in its December 17 intelligence update reported that Russian Storm-Z troops returning to combat with untreated wounds, including amputations, due to minimal medical care. Convict recruits face worse conditions.
Storm-Z is a group of Russia’s penal military units established by the Russian Defense Ministry in April 2023, modeled after the Wagner Group’s penal recruitment.
One reason for this is that prisoners often lack the paperwork required to access military hospitals.
Whilst reducing pressure on an overburdened military medical system, the lack of proper in-theatre medical attention will transfer the administrative and medical burden back to troops’ home units.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
German minister Defence Minister — Europe must rearm as new threats loom
Europe must race to ensure it can better defend itself as new military threats could emerge by the end of the decade even as the focus of security ally the United States shifts towards the Indo-Pacfic, Reuters reports Germany's defense minister has said.
Russia was hiking its weapons production considerably to sustain its invasion of Ukraine, while also threatening the Baltic states, Georgia and Moldova, Boris Pistorius was quoted as saying in an interview with Welt am Sonntag.
"We Europeans must engage more to ensure security on our own continent, however it would take time for the region to increase its own weapons production. We have about 5-8 years to catch up, in terms of armed forces, industry and society,"
— Boris Pistorius, German Defence Minister
Europe is clear it may also need to compensate for U.S. aid for Ukraine if Washington fails to agree to new funding, he added. The election of a more Europe-friendly government in Poland should now enable the Weimar Triangle of Berlin, Paris and Warsaw to further develop their military cooperation, he added.
Moldova conducts military exercises near Transnistria
Moldova organized military exercises near the Russian-controlled proxy Transnistria, 22 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. According to the Moldovan Defence Ministry, soldiers of the 22nd peacekeeping battalion will undergo training at the Bulboac Training Center from 17 to 22 December 2023.
On 15 December 2023, the Parliament of Moldova supported the draft of Moldova’s National Security Strategy – the first since 2011.
Moldova’s defense spending increased by almost 70% in 2023. Additional funds were directed mainly to the purchase of air defense systems. The European Union has also handed over medical and protective equipment, mine detectors, all-terrain vehicles, drones, and generators to the National Army of Moldova.
Putin warns of “problems” to come on Finland-Russia border after Helsinki joins NATO
Putin, referring to recent remarks from President Biden predicting Russia would not be satisfied with just Ukraine and endangered NATO allies, claimed the US president's remarks as “complete nonsense,” adding that his country had no interest in fighting with the Western military alliance.
However at the same time he warned of “problems” with neighbouring Finland after it joined NATO earlier this year. In recent weeks, Helsinki has accused Moscow of “hybrid warfare” by pushing asylum seekers across border crossings.
Russia also announced plans to reorganise military divisions to station more troops in its north-west region, by the EU and Nato border. The announcement came after Finland said it would sign a defense pact with the US military next week.
MILITARY & TECH
Kharkiv proudly hands over the first two Dozer-B armoured cars to the military
Scouts of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine received the first two upgraded Dozor-B armoured vehicles developed by Kharkiv engineers and made in Ukraine.
The head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, Oleh Syniehubov, presented the cars on Sunday, 17 December 2023.
He said the cars were the result of his previous meeting with the head of Ukrainian Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov. He didn’t disclose exactly which company made the Dozor-B vehicles, saying only it was done in Kharkiv. According to Syniehubov, the vehicle has strong armour capable of protecting against mines, is equipped for fire from small arms, and has other undisclosed advantages.
According to open source information, the off-road 4×4 armoured combat vehicle Dozor-B was created in Ukraine by the Kharkiv Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering as a multi-purpose protected vehicle for transporting personnel, weapons, and military equipment. A small number of cars were developed and produced between 2004 and 2016 in Kharkiv and Lviv, while since 2013, Poland has been producing a licensed copy of Dozor-B under the name Oncilla.
Denmark, Sweden to provide Ukraine with additional infantry fighting vehicles
Denmark and Sweden have decided to jointly finance the donation and production of additional CV90 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) for Ukraine, the Danish Ministry of Defense announced on 18 December. This decision follows Ukraine’s request for more of these vehicles after Sweden had already donated 50 CV90s.
The Danish government has allocated 1.8 billion DKK (approx. $250 million) for 2023 to support this donation, which includes not only the CV90 vehicles but also spare parts, ammunition, and a multi-year maintenance agreement to ensure logistical support after delivery.
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